Climate Change and Projection for Asia

Data and Uncertainty\

Modeling the climate processesAND

Model Outputs for Climate Change AnalysisModel Outputs for Climate Change Analysis

Climate model is reduced complexity numerical system, which simulates one possible time evolution in which the major features have a response to primary forcing similar to the real world.

SNU RCM Downscaled Climate Change for East Asia RegiSNU RCM Downscaled Climate Change for East Asia Regionon

SNU RCM Downscaled Climate Change for East Asia RegionSNU RCM Downscaled Climate Change for East Asia Region

Dispersion and Inconsistency Dispersion and Inconsistency in downscaling in downscaling

Seasonal Cycles by RMIP models

Dispersion and Inconsistency Dispersion and Inconsistency in climate projections in climate projections

Dispersion and Inconsistency Dispersion and Inconsistency in climate projection in climate projection

ΔP

(mm

/day

)

ΔP

(mm

/day

)

South ChinaCenter China

RMIP downscaled Precipitation changes

Sources of UncertaintySources of Uncertainty

Asia Land

OceanAnnual T Trends for 2040-2070 (c/10yr)

Interannual variability for future climate by multi-RCMs

Ensembles in RMIP

Ensembles in RMIP

Ensembles in RMIP

Ensembles in RMIP

Ensembles in RMIP

• Ensemble averages work well for mean climate;

• Explorer the best methods for evaluating changes and extremes;

• Use ensemble spread to inform uncertainty;

Model outputs and Observation• For surface climate:

– Daily average MSLP, maximal/minimal temperature, surface wind speed (optional)

– 3-hourly: 2m temperature, RH, convective precipitation, large scale precipitation, evaporation, 10m wind (U,V) (optional, depending on individual model)

• For upper level atmosphere– Daily average: U, V, T, H at 200, 500, 850 hPa

• Observation– CRU surface temperature, OISST SST

– APHRODITE and GPCP Precipitation

RMIP data• http://rmip.nju.edu.cn, available soon,

• Contact wsy@nju.edu.cn

Thank you!