climate changes impacts on drought management …...a decrease of water resources due to climate...

Climate changes impacts on drought Climate changes impacts on drought management in Mediterranean area: management in Mediterranean area:

how to improve the approaches?how to improve the approaches?M. Vurro(*), E. Bruno, R. Giordano, I. Portoghese, E. Preziosi, E. Romano

Water Research Institute, National Research Council, IRSA-CNR, Italy, Roma-Bari

Via F. De Blasio, 5 – 70123 Bari

([email protected])Water Research InstituteNational Research Council

European and Mediterranean Workshop””Climate change impact on waterClimate change impact on water--related related

and marine risksand marine risks””Murcia, October, 26th-27th, 2009

The aim of the presentation:The aim of the presentation:

1. To identify requirements for natural risk management in the context of increased threats related to climate change consequences.

2. To promote a network of actors to transform such requirements into a better protection of the population against such emerging natural hazards.

Water Research Institute, National Research Councilwww.irsa.cnr.itMurcia, October, 26 th-27th, 2009

CIRCE started from…What would we expect from climate change in water-stressed regions?

• CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area. The project will investigate how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how properties of the atmosphere, the radiactive fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle and implications on social and economic sectors.

IPCC 4AR• Many semi-arid and arid areas (e.g., the Mediterranean basin, western USA,

southern Africa and north-eastern Brazil) are particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change and are projected (with high confidence) to suffer a decrease of water resources due to climate change.

• There is an urgent need to understand and quantify the impact of projected climate change on hydrological processes including vegetation and crops (feedbacks).

• Linkages between models for climate change and hydrological processes is crude, with models’ scales not relevant for decision making.


Objective:“ Quantify the past variations and future projections in the water cycle in the Mediterranean Environment under global climate changes system.”

RL 1

RL 11Integrating Case Studies

RL 12

RL13Induced Responses and Policies

RL 6 – Extreme Events

RL 7 - Impacts of Global Change on Ecosystems and the

services they provide

RL 8 - Air Quality and Climate

RL 9 - Human Health

RL 10 - Economic Impacts of Climate Change

RL 2 - The Mediterranean Region and the Global

Climate System

RL 3 – Radiation, clouds,aerosol and climate change

RL 4 – Scale Interactionsand Feedback processes

RL 5 - Water Cycle

RL 0 - Coordination and Communication

RL 1Identification andattribution of

present climate trends

RL 5

Water

Cycle

Relevant Societal Dynamics


WP1) Analysis of changes in Atmospheric water budget

WP2) Variations in the precipitation component of the water cycle

WP3) Variations in the terrestrial component of water cycle

WP4) Changes in Mediterranean Sea water cycle and implications for water mass characteristics

RL 5 Water CycleRL 5 Water Cycle

Water Research Institute, National Research Councilwww.irsa.cnr.it

RACCM (Regional Assessment of

Climate Change in Mediterranean Area)

• PART 1 : AIR, SEA AND PRECIPITATION: Past, Current and Future onOcean, on Atmosphere, on Extremes and on Uncertainty; Mechanisms of climate variability in the Mediterranean Region

• PART 2 : WATER: The hydrologic cycle: different components and interactions; Impacts of climate change on surface water, on ground water and coastal aquifer and on water quality.

• PART 3 : AGRICULTURE, FORESTS AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES: Climate change impacts on typical Mediterranean crops, forests and forest products, livestock population and productivity and evaluation of adaptation strategies to cope with. Vulnerability assessment of ecosystem services in the Mediterranean region,

• PART 4 : PEOPLE: Water for people, Health, The general equilibrium approach, Policy innovation, Future visions of society in the Mediterranean

• PART 5 : CASE STUDIES–– Coastal Case StudiesCoastal Case Studies:: Gulf of Valencia (Spain), Gulf of Oran (Algeria), Gulf of

Gabes (Tunisia), Western Nile Delta (Egypt)–– Rural Case StudiesRural Case Studies:: Tuscany Region (Italy), Puglia Region (Italy), Judean

Foothills (Israel), Tel Hadya (Syria). –– Urban Case StudiesUrban Case Studies:: Alexandria (Egypt), Athens (Greece), Beirut (Lebanon),

Murcia, October, 26 th-27th, 2009


Springs� Area of interest : it is located in Campania, a region of Southern Italy, in whichthere are not many studies about the relationship between climate change and water supply� Springs of interest : our studies are based on two main springs of the area,which are capped by Apulian aqueduct

� Caposele Sanità

� Cassano Irpino

Geological Characterization

Substantial preponderance of

�Calcareous soil (Cretaceus)

�Arenaceus soil (Oligocene – Miocene )

with smaller areas especially of


Hydrological CharacterizationHydrological basins of Cassano Irpino and

Caposele Springs.

Into these limits there are 5 meteo climatic stations:• M1 = Caposele

• M2 = Acerno

• M3 = P.no Laceno

• M4 = Serrapullo

• M5 = Cassano Irpinoand 6 hydrometric station:• I1 = Acqua delle Brecce

• I2 = Fiume Sele

• I3 = V.ne dell’acero

• I4 = V.ne Iannarulo

• I5 = Sorgente Bagno

• I6 = Vallone Pinzarino


Datasets and references

Previous studies of scientific literature, Influence of C.C. and water supply in the area of our interest.

In addition, we will develop successive statistical analysis using the following datasets:• historical daily series of rainfall from 1920 to 1999 (SIMN Naples);• historical (ten day) series of flow rate from 1965 to 2006 for Cassano Irpino Springs and from 1920 to 2006 for Caposele Springs.

Annual Mean Rainfall, and Annual mean flow rate, for Cassano Irpino Springs


• Basin-scale testing of daily precipitation vs. 12 continuous precipitation records for 1961-1990

• Spatial averaging of point values over RCM grid-cells


Case study application :Methods and dataset


Development of a downscaling approach based on a Poissonian scheme of the rainfall process

Impacts on Ground Water Impacts on Ground Water

Balance RegimesBalance Regimes

SPACE-TIME DOWNSCALING METHODS

PhysicalPhysical D. (D. (dynamicdynamic D.)D.)

•• RCM RCM runrun withwith boundaryboundary c. c.

fromfrom GCM.GCM.

Empirical D.Empirical D.

•• Transfer functionsTransfer functions

•• WeatherWeather--typingtyping

•• Stochastic Stochastic

Weather GeneratorsWeather Generators

Models calibrated on observed properties from real Models calibrated on observed properties from real

observationsobservations

Model parameters can de derived from Model parameters can de derived from GCMGCM’’ss outputoutput

Suitable for cascade application of impact models for Suitable for cascade application of impact models for

hydrology, ecology, agricultural projectionshydrology, ecology, agricultural projections

Often used in combination with transfer functions for Often used in combination with transfer functions for

the spatial downscalingthe spatial downscaling



Case study application : Quantile mapping and CDF anamorphosis for quantitative bias correction

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 350

5

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Observed data

RC

M

Q-Q plot -Winter

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-2

10-1

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Rainfall distribution curves -Winter

[%]

Pre

cipi

tatio

n [m

m/d

ay]

Observed data

Corrected RCM 20c

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-2

10-1

100

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Rainfall distribution curves

[%]

prec

ipita

tion

[mm

/day

]

observed data

RCM 21c (A1B)Corrected RCM 21c (A1B)

R*(d) = f (R (d) |O) S*(d) = f (S (d) |O)

f(x(d) |O) correction function to be adopted in the SD of the scenario variable (Déqué, 2007)

f (x)Q-Q fit


•The variability (standard deviation computed using observations and scenario data) of monthly rainfall shows high increase during late fall months.

•During spring and summer period, rainfall reductions produce a prolonged water deficit period for soil, and consequently reduction of tha amount of groundwater recharge.

•Rainfall reductions will be during fall and winter months.



EvaluationEvaluationof the impact on the of the impact on the springspringregime.regime.Impact =Out (S) – Out (R)

The flowrate trends beetweenXX e XXI cen. are similar.

Peff (mm) Qm (l/s)

Observations 900 3000

XXI century 450 2500

y = -0,1293x + 6782,3

y = 0,0015x + 14,118

0

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gen-

81gi

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nov-

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pr-8

2se

t-82

feb-

83lu

g-83

dic-

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ag…

ott-

84m

ar-8

5a

go-8

5ge

n-86

giu-

86no

v-86

apr

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set-8

7fe

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lug-

88di

c-88

ma

g…ot

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ma

r-90

ago

-90

gen-

91gi

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nov-

91a

pr-9

2se

t-92

feb-

93lu

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ag…

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apr

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lug-

98di

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ma

g…ot

t-99

P e

ff m

ensi

li o

ss (m

m)

Q m

ed m

ensi

li o

ss (l

/s)

P eff mensili oss/Q med mensili oss

y = -0,1179x + 10374

y = 0,0002x + 35,685

0

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P e

ff m

ensi

li si

mu

late

(mm

)

Q m

ed m

ensi

li si

mu

late

(l/s

)

P_Q Simulate 2081 - 2100


The gap between observations and projections is about 30% for flow rate and 50% for effective precipitation.

This feature is highlighted comparing annual trends of mean observed and simulated effective precipitations and flow rates.

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f (m

m)

Q m

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nn (

l/s)

Confronto P/Q ann simulate-P/Q ann osservate

Qm_a_sim 2081-2100

Qm_a_oss 1969-1999

Peff_ann_sim 2081-2100

Peff_a_oss 1969-1999


This is a crucial field for the improvement of CC impact assessment in Mediterranean water cycle.

Impacts Impacts

on Wateron WaterWhat are our expectations from CIRCE

……Water managersWater managers’’ perception is that perception is that ““the future is no the future is no

longer as it used to belonger as it used to be””. .

WP5.1 Atmospheric Water BudgetWP5.1 Atmospheric Water Budget

WP5.2 Precipitation Component of Water CycleWP5.2 Precipitation Component of Water Cycle

WP5.3 Terrestrial Component of Water CycleWP5.3 Terrestrial Component of Water Cycle

WP5.4 Mediterranean Sea Water CycleWP5.4 Mediterranean Sea Water Cycle

WP5WP5.1.1

WP5WP5.2.2

WP5WP5.3.3WP5WP5.3.3

WP5WP5.4.4

1) Integrate overlapping research questions having 1) Integrate overlapping research questions having

bordering scales of investigation and modeling. bordering scales of investigation and modeling.

2) Bridge scale gaps by completing the CC 2) Bridge scale gaps by completing the CC

scenarios with information on fundamental scenarios with information on fundamental

climatologicalclimatological variables (local downscaling).variables (local downscaling).

3) Sketch possible futures of fresh water resources 3) Sketch possible futures of fresh water resources

in the Mediterranean by way of credible in the Mediterranean by way of credible

representation of processes at a problemrepresentation of processes at a problem--solving solving

scale.scale.

ExpectationsExpectations


.. and the drought management under climate change…

a risk management plan is devoted to support the implementation of mitigation measures



Risk management approach…

� It is the opposite of crises management: a proactive approach is taken in advance to drought.

� It implies to focus more on the causes of drought impacts than on the effects themselves.

� It cannot avoid the negative impacts of drought, but it reduces and mitigates .

� A risk management approach to drought management requires to introduce measures to reduce the system vulnerability, in order to reduce the drought impacts.



Risk management approach…


Drought Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability

The assessment of the hazard index requires the analysis (probability) of the physical characteristics of the phenomenon

The vulnerability assessment requires to examine the underlying environmental, economic and social factors influencing the severity of drought impacts.


Risk Management approach: Benefits of stakeholders involvement


Stakeholdersinvolvement

Mitigationpolicies

Public awareness

Impactsassessement

Due to the complexity of drought impacts, the identification and assessment of such impacts is not an easy task. Local stakeholders are often better placed to detect and evaluate the drought impacts on the socio – environmental system.

If mitigation actions are selected without considering the stakeholders' perceptions of the drought then the actions themselves could be considered as unsatisfactory by stakeholders or, even worst, not acceptable at all.

The involvement of stakeholders in drought management could increase their knowledge about the phenomenon and could have positive effects on their awareness about their role in mitigation policies implementation.


Drought impacts and droughtperception: The lake Trasimeno

� Drought impacts on the “perceived” environment and on the related water use activities strongly influence stakeholders' perceptions of drought.

� The involvement of stakeholders in impacts assessment requires the elicitation and analysis of the different drought perceptions.

� Facing a drought phenomenon, stakeholders adopt their own mental models to assess its severity, taking into account additional elements other than just water availability and climatic conditions.

� The elicitation of these mental models allow to structure the stakeholders' understanding (perception) of drought impacts.





Stakeholders Cognitive Map representing his/her understanding of drought impacts.

-2,00

-1,50

-1,00

-0,50

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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55

C1 Level of the lake

C2 Quality of the lake ecosystem

C3 Sectorial approaches to environmentalmanagementC4 Ecological equilibrium

C5 Birds migration flows

C6 Livestocks

C7 Water temperature

C8 Amount of algae in the lake

C9 Bathing in the lake

C10 Number of turists

C11 Climatic Conditions

C12 Water salinity

C13 Withdraw of water from the lake

C14 New fish species

C15 Health of fish species

C16 Drought

C17 Water quality

C18 Agricultural activities

C19 Water availability

State of the system before the drought onset according to the stakeholder's understanding

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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55

C1 Level of the lake

C2 Quality of the lake ecosystem

C3 Sectorial approaches to environmentalmanagementC4 Ecological equilibrium

C5 Birds migration flows

C6 Livestocks

C7 Water temperature

C8 Amount of algae in the lake

C9 Bathing in the lake

C10 Number of turists

C11 Climatic Conditions

C12 Water salinity

C13 Withdraw of water from the lake

C14 New fish species

C15 Health of fish species

C16 Drought

C17 Water quality

C18 Agricultural activities

C19 Water availability

State of the system during the drought phenomena




Stakeholder RuoloEnte Parco del Trasimeno –

Comunità Montana

Ente di pianificazione territoriale al fine di

supportare lo sviluppo locale

Gruppo d'Azione Locale (GAL) Ente di programmazione per lo sviluppo locale

ARPA Umbria Agenzia di controllo del territorio e dell'ambiente

Coldiretti Associazione di categoria

Servizio Turistico del Trasimeno Associazione di categoria

Enti comunaliEnti locali di pianificazione e controllo del

territorio

WWF Associazioni ambientaliste

Regione Umbria Ente locale di gestione delle risorse ambientali

Provincia di Perugia Ente locale di gestione delle risorse ambientali

EIUT Ente di gestione della rete di irrigazione

• The analysis of stakeholders' drought perception ( nine categories ) allows to define the main drought impacts according to their understanding.

• The integration of the different drought perception s support the integrated assessment of drought impacts.


Stakeholders involvement in drought impacts monitoring

� Taking into account the spatial and temporal scale issues, the assessment of drought impacts results in a demand to monitor a broad set of variables, with prohibitive costs if the monitoring is only based on traditional scientific methods of measurement.

� To address this issue in countries where, due to lack of financial and economical resources, it is infeasible to improve current monitoring system using only traditional scientific methods.

� Local communities can be seen as information providers in a monitoring system for drought impacts monitoring.





The soil salinity monitoring in Amudarya River Basin (Uzbekistan).

Source: WWF




Soil Salinity

Soil colourafter leaching

(farmer)

Soil colourafter leaching

(farmer)

Plant growth(HE)

Plant growth(HE)

Groundwaterlevel

(HE, GIS)

Groundwaterlevel

(HE, GIS)

Groundwatersalinity

(HE, GIS)

Groundwatersalinity

(HE, GIS)

Soil texture(HE, GIS)

Soil texture(HE, GIS)

Evennessof the field

Morphology(depression, hill)

SurfaceCharacteristics

(farmer)

SurfaceCharacteristics

(farmer)

Water Quality

Number of leaching(performed)

Leaching(farmer)

Water Quality

Number of leaching(performed)

Leaching(farmer)

Leaching(farmer)

Amount of waterused for irrigation

Irrigation(farmer)

Irrigation(farmer)

Distance to thenearest channel

(WUA chairman, GIS)

Number of channelssurrounding the field

(WUA chairman, GIS)

Maintenance ofdrainage channels

(WUA chairman, GIS)

Drainagesystem


ConclusionsRequirements for natural risk managementRequirements for natural risk management

• The prediction and quantification of the physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area (1)

• The downscaling from GCM to RCM to HM (1)• The adaptation strategies in water management under

climate change (1)

Network of actors to better protect populationNetwork of actors to better protect population• The mitigation measures: technological and

infrastructural and non-technical measures (2)• The stakeholders involvement: mitigation policies and

public awareness (2)


First Geophysical Observatory in the Puglia Region (XIII Century)

… From here we’ll try to help water managers in solving their problems on drought ….

Thank you for your attention…

Climate Change Impact Research:Water-related issues

after Milly et al., 2005. Nature, 438(7066), 347–350 [in IPCC 4AR]


PDSI centennial global trend after Dai et al., 2004. [in IPCC 4AR]



climate changes impacts on drought management …...a decrease of water resources due to climate...

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