climate change, teff and food security in ethiopia
DESCRIPTION
Assessing the potential geographic shifts of a major staple crop, teff (Eragrostis tef) in Ethiopia as a result of climate change. More information about the project: http://www.abcic.org/index.php/programs/striga-resistance-in-sorghum-in-east-and-central-africa/effects-of-climate-change-on-teff-production-in-ethiopiaTRANSCRIPT
ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ON TEFF IN ETHIOPIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD
SECURITY
Dan Kiambi, Fassil Kebebew, Maria D. Bij de
Vaate, John Yumbya and KPC Rao
Institute of Biodiversity Conservation
Presentation for the IDRC,
ESARO
20th September 2012
Outline of the presentation
Overall impacts of climate change on
agriculture
The project
Main objective
Specific objectives
Methodology
Key results of the study
Conclusions and recommendations
Building on the study
Overall climate change effects on agriculture
Changes in geographic ranges of crops, pests
and disease
Occurrence of new crops and livestock
diseases and pests
Re-distribution of crops, variation in yields and
loss of their genetic diversity
Adverse effects on agro-biodiversity leading to
large scale extinctions of wild relatives of crop
plants
ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
TEFF IN ETHIOPIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY
Project started in November 2010
Partners: ABCIC, IBC, CIAT and ICRISAT
Case study crop was Teff
Long history of cultivation
Associated with strong cultural practices
Geographic distinctiveness
Funding from IDRC
Major objective
Study the likely effects of climate change on
distribution and genetic diversity of teff in order
to guide scientific, policy and farm level
interventions as well as draw inferences and
implications for food security
Project objectives
Specific objectives
To assess the potential geographic shifts in
distribution of teff
To assess the loss of diversity in teff as a
consequence of climate change
To document and evaluate the climate
change adaptation and coping strategies by
farmers in the pilot areas
Specific objectives
To assess socio-economic impacts and
scientific and policy implications for food
security
To sensitize policy makers and stakeholders
on climate change concerns through effective
communication and dissemination of the
project findings
Collection of teff data
A total of 1441 geo-referenced data points from
gene bank records and herbarium specimens
were collected from the Institute of Biodiversity
Conservation and National Herbarium of the
Addis Ababa University
Yield data records included 23 sample points
describing altitude, latitude, longitude and teff
yield
Methodology
Collection of climate data
Climate conditions both current (1950-2010) and future (~2050) were obtained from WorldClim
Bioclimatic variables for each of the 23 yield data points were extracted from the climatic datasets using DIVA-GIS software (Version 5.2).
Methodology
Suitability Index and teff yield
The model was run in DIVA-GIS. The output
from the model was transformed into presence/
absence data by assigning presence to the
areas where scores were within 2.5 – 97.5
percentile range
The scores for each pixel were the suitability
indexes
Yield points were converted to shapefiles using
ArcGIS 9.3 and overlaid on the suitability grids
Methodology
Socio-economic survey
Developed to increase our understanding about
agricultural activities and associated changes in
the study districts Gimbichu, Minjar and Bora
Climatic changes observed
Impacts of changes as perceived by farmers
Challenges faced
Mitigation efforts of negative effects of climate
changes
Methodology
Study Area
The study area
included Bora,
Minjar Shenkora
and Gimbichu
located in
central Ethiopia
300 respondents
(100 per site)
Methodology
Current teff occurrence in Ethiopia in relation
to rainfall (left) and temperature (right)
KEY RESULTS OF THE STUDY
Change in rainfall and temp over the past 7 yrs as
perceived by respondents in the three districts Bora* Gimbichu* Minjar*
** n +/- + - n +/- + - n +/- + -
Amount of rain 100 100 99 6 35 59 100 7 13 80
Frequency of rain
showers 100 100 97 4 35 61 100 10 8 82
Distribution of rainfall
in the year 100 100 97 15 19 66 99 9 8 83
Number of dry months
in a year 100 98 2 89 39 52 9 94 6 61 33
Occurence of droughts 100 52 25 23 73 47 14 40 78 50 22 28
Occurence of floods 100 22 68 10 76 43 36 21 81 74 5 21
Water availability 100 19 81 96 2 25 73 100 16 28 56
Water stress 100 18 81 1 95 1 49 49 98 18 34 48
Length of the growing
season 100 3 97 85 28 34 36 97 14 8 77
Temperature 100 99 1 98 7 80 13 98 5 81 14
Number of hot days 100 98 2 94 14 74 12 95 6 80 14
Occurence of heat
waves 100 3 97 0 75 48 41 11 83 60 30 10
* Rates in percentage % of respondents (n)
** +/- no change + increase - decrease
Most rapid changes observed by respondents
in the three districts over the last 7 years
Bora
(n=100)
Gimbichu
(n=100)
Minjar
(n=99)
Less rainfall 98 (1) 90 (1) 69 (2)
Decreased reliability of
rainfall 64 (4) 66 (3) 42 (5)
Temperature increase 82 (2) 28 (5) 61 (4)
More floods 12 0 2
Increased failure of crops 30 0 4
Increased weeds and pests 60 (5) 73 (2) 12
Less forest cover,
environmental degradation 82 (2) 66 (3) 65 (3)
Less wildlife 19 28 (5) 74 (1)
Rates in percentage % of respondents (n)
Between brackets is the ranking of most
rapid changes in the district
From a list of 38 issues (12
climatic related, 8
environmental, 11
agricultural and 7 socio-
economic)
For Minjar the changes in rainfall and temperature were mentioned
often among the five most rapid changes observed, but less often than
in Bora
Cereal crop failures due to drought in the three
districts
Average
number of crop
failures due to
drought during
last 5 yrs
Specified crop failure for respondents who lost
crops to droughts*
teff barley wheat maize sorghum
Bora 2.5 (n=100) 43 20 68 96 22
Gimbichu 0.0 (n=1) 0 0 1 0 0
Minjar 1.4 (n=85) 61 59 89 34 31
* rates in percentage % of respondents (n)
In Bora all respondents reported to have suffered crop failures due to
droughts.
Current (left) and future (right) potential distribution of
Eragrostis teff in Ethiopia
Current (left) and future (right) predicted teff yields
Drop in teff yield production in tonnes per hectare
by the year 2050
Severe drop in yield will be
experienced in the areas
marked in red - This shows a change of
0.46 tonnes/ha and above
Implications of climate change on teff production
The model confirmed future teff distribution changes
and yields reductions due to climatic changes
Average loss of approximately 24% (236,975.65
Km²) of the current suitable area for teff by
approximately the year 2050
With a change in the species climatic envelope, the
species will only be suitable to temperatures of up to
27°C and a low of 15 °C
Socio-economic impacts of climate change
Biophysical results projected into an economic analysis
Production of a national assessment of tef production
and food security under climate change
Simple calculations used to evaluate consequent
changes in national tef production and tef prices
Alarming results
Socio-economic impacts of climate change
Effects of climate change on yields predict a loss of
0.46 tons/ha
A reduction of 1,190,784 tons in the national
production
Estimated economic loss of US$650,961,954 based
on farm gate prices
A loss of US$730,347,581 based on current market
prices
Conclusions and Recommendations
Recommendations on strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation by farmers in the three districts
Bora* (n=100) Gimbichu*
(n=100) Minjar* (n=100)
Consultation of the local community by
government 14 4 7
Awareness on climate change 18 (3) 46 (2) 16
Conservation and management of forests 59 (1) 26 12
Law enforcement regarding forest
conservation 33 (2) 1 3
Improve agricultural development policies 17 13 23 (3)
Address land tenure issues 3 0 1
Address high costs of inputs 2 1 21
New technologies 18 67 (1) 43 (2)
Improve access to technologies and
innovations 2 7 8
Research and Development 0 1 6
Soil conservation 15 22 6
Water conservation 6 30 (3) 9
Development of infrastructure 0 0 44 (1)
* rates in percentage of respondents (n)
Between brackets is the ranking of most popular action
points in the district
Proposed interventions
Local level interventions
Farmers should get better access to new technologies and knowledge,
and moreover be encouraged to diversify crop varieties
A change of mindset among farmers is needed for them to adopt new
technologies and crop varieties
An integrated approach in the application of climate change mitigation
and adaptation strategies is needed at the community level
.
Proposed interventions
Scientific interventions
Identification and isolation of valuable local
varieties characteristics
Crop improvement to develop “climate ready
varieties”
Streamlining seed distribution systems to improve
access to “climate ready” seeds
Integrated community level approaches (including
indigenous knowledge) in the development of
climate change mitigation and adaptation
technologies/strategies
Proposed interventions
Policy interventions
Strengthening current development initiatives to
support climate change adaptation/mitigation
Mainstreaming climate change
adaptation/mitigation into development planning in
the different economic sectors
Undertaking new investments in agricultural
research targeting climate change issues
Enforcement of laws and policies that impact on
climate change mitigation and adaptation
Policy interventions Empowering and improving the capacities of farmers
to respond to climate change
Supporting the development and dissemination of agricultural technologies targeted towards mitigation and adaptation of climate change
Integrate local indigenous knowledge systems and traditional decision making frameworks and mechanisms within the national climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies
Proposed interventions
Building on this study
TITLE : ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
SORGHUM IN KENYA: FOOD SECURITY IN A CHANGING
ENVIRONMENT
1. Replicate and refine the methodologies used in the previous study
2. Develop a yield index for sorghum which has not been done yet
3. Better options and opportunities for awareness (public and policy)
4. Better opportunities for policy dialogue
5. Use of lessons learnt in project design and implementation