Climate Change Adaptation in Northern Ethiopia

Polly Ericksen (ILRI)

Stakeholders’ Workshop on Enhancing Communities’ Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change Induced Water Scarcity in Kabe Watershed, South Wollo Zone

Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia, 24-25 November 2011

Climate variability already a constant

• East Africa characterized by high CV rainfall annually and seasonally

• Evidence in N. Ethiopia farmers abandoning belg crops

• Droughts and water stress affect both livestock and crops

• Bi-modal distribution means seasonal distribution more important than annual averages

Recent Climate Trends in East Africa

Temperature

• Mean annual temperature increased by 1.0°C since 1960• Most rapid in March-May (0.29°C per decade)• Slowest in June-September (0.19°C per decade)

• Increasing frequency of hot days, and more frequent hot nights• Number of ‘hot’ days per year increased by since 1960 (especially in

March-May)• Number of ‘hot’ nights per year increased especially in September-

November

Rainfall

• Met station data show no statistically significant trends since 1960

• More rainfall occurring in heavy events

Climate Change

Image of the Future

Image of the Future

Climate Change Scenarios

Downscaling GCMs for impact / exposure analysis

• Use ensembles of “equally-likely” combinations of climate model + emissions scenario mean response and s.e. of response

• Downscale spatially, from 2° lat-long grids to a more useful resolution (e.g. 9-km grids)

• Downscale temporally from long-term climatology to characteristic daily weather data

Use MarkSim as a GCM downscaler: difference interpolation + stochastic downscaling + weather typing

Generate exposure indicators based on daily data

Future Climate Trends in East Africa

Different climate models project different trendsTemperature• Mean annual temperature may increase 1.0 - 2.8°C by the 2060s, and 1.3 -5.5°C by the 2090s• Models agree on increases in frequency of ‘hot’ days and nights• Models agree on decreases in frequency of ‘cold’ days and nights (these essentially disappear by the 2090s)

Precipitation• Most models indicate increases in annual rainfall in northern part of EA (up to 48% by the 2090s), and more in heavy events• Projected increases largest in October-December (up to 49 m per month) but this depends upon El Niño. Possible drying in June to August.

Changes in variability• Variability projected to increase, butare few details• Wide disagreement in projected changes in El Niño events (and hence OND)

Changes in maximum temperature

Changes in growing periods

Climate change exposure: changes in rain per rainfall event

Ericksen et al, 2011

Adaptation to climate change

• More than just buffering against vulnerability • Shifting strategies in face of changes (with no

precedent) but continuing to develop• Climate “smart” agriculture

– Resilience to shocks– Greater resource use efficiency

• Also, avoidance of negative feedbacks or “mal-adaptation”, including increased inequity

Adaptive capacity

• More forward looking and pro-active than coping

• Ability to change or reorganize strategies to diminish risk and prepare for new ones

• Depends upon– Resources and ability to access and use them– Removal of external constraints to adapt – Free flow of information

Adaptation research priorities• What are people’s NEEDS for rainfall to

support their livelihoods?• What innovations can we support NOW?• Support “no regrets” options• Constraints on adaptive capacity.. E.g.

• Lack of safety nets• Markets • Land tenure

• SCENARIOS as a planning tool

SCENARIO STORY LINES Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)

Order from Strength

Adapting Mosaic

Global Orchestration

TechnoGarden

Globalization Regionalization

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