climate change - international union for conservation of ...€¦ · climate change ~ challenges in...
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1IPCC
Climate change~
Challenges in Asia and PakistanWMO UNEP
R.K. PachauriChairman, IPCC
Director-General, TERI
Islamabad13th January 2008
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2IPCC
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
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3IPCC
Observed changes
Global average sea level
Northern hemispheresnow cover
Global average temperature
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4IPCC
Average arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate
in the past 100 years- Annual average arctic sea ice extent has
shrunk by 2.7% per decade
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5IPCC
The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas
- Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes
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6IPCC
Heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths
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7IPCC
The proportion of tropical cyclones reaching higher intensity have increased over the past 3 decades
- Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100 000 estimated deaths
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8IPCC
More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics- About 25% of Africa’s population currently experience high water stress
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9IPCC
Rise in mean temperature 0.6 to 1.0°C in coastal areas since early 1900s
Changes in precipitation10 to 15% decrease in coastal belt and hyper arid plains over the
last 40 yearsIncrease in summer & winter precipitation in Northern Pakistan
Increasing frequency and intensity of droughtsConsecutive droughts in 1999 and 2000, leading to sharp decline
in watertablesDrying up of wetlands and severe degradation of ecosystems
Observed changes in Pakistan
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10IPCC
Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.8ºC to 4ºC over the 21st century and induce many changes that
would be larger than those observed during the 20th century
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 (oC)
Projected surface temperature changes (2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)
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11IPCC
Key vulnerabilitiesin Asia
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12IPCC
Water availabilityGlacier melt is projected to affect water resources in the next decades
Rivers in the northern Indian plain could become seasonal in the near future
120 million to 1.2 billion people will experience increased water stress in South and South East Asia by the 2020s
Saltwater intrusion in groundwater and estuaries is projected to be aggravated by sea-level rise
Decreasing winter precipitation over the Indian subcontinent would imply less groundwater storage
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13IPCC
Coastal erosion and inundation of coastal lowland as sea level continues to rise, flooding the homes of millions of people living in low lying areasMost conservative scenario: Sea level rise of 40 cm by the end of 21st century
Increase the annual number of people flooded in coastal populations from 13 million to 94 million (60% in South Asia)
Coastal areas
Significant losses of coastal ecosystems, affecting the aquaculture industry, particularly in heavily-populated mega-deltas
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14IPCC
Human health
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoealdisease primarily associated with floods and droughts
Exacerbation of the abundance and toxicity of cholera due to increase in coastal water temperature
Increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts
IPCC
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15IPCC
Crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while they could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by 2050
Food production
Future changes have the potential to substantially alter the abundance of fish populations in Asian waters
The risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries
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16IPCC
Implications for Pakistan
Pakistan is expected to witness increasing pressure on the natural resources and the environment as the demands for goods and services expand
Population increase of 200 million expected over the next 50 years
Climatic changes would likely exacerbate present environmental conditions that give rise to land degradation, shortfalls in food production, rural poverty and urban unrest
Such changes would likely increase internal migration, and migration to other western countries
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17IPCC
Options for adaptation and mitigation
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18IPCC
Promoting good governance including responsible decision making and communities empowerment
Improving health care systems
Improving disaster preparedness and management
Informing and educating to enhance the level of awareness and understanding
Key adaptation strategies
Integrating adaptation in wider policies
Developing knowledge on impacts and vulnerabilities
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19IPCC
Role and limits of adaptation
Adaptation is necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming that is already unavoidable due to past emissions
Societies have a long record of adaptingto the impacts of weather and climate
But climate change poses new risks that will require new investments in adaptive responses
But adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change
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20IPCC
Stabilisation scenarios
3.2 – 4.02.8 – 3.22.4 – 2.82.0 – 2.4
Global mean temp. increase
(ºC)
2020 – 2060590 – 7102010 – 2030535 – 5902000 – 2020490 – 5352000 – 2015445 – 490
Year CO2 needs to peak
Stabilizationlevel
(ppm CO2-eq)
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21IPCC
Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030
Stabilisation levels
(ppm CO2-eq)
Range of GDP reduction
(%)
Reduction of average annual
GDP growth rates
(percentage pts)
445 - 535 < 3 < 0.12
535 - 590 0.2 – 2.5 < 0.1
590 - 710 -0.6 – 1.2 < 0.06
Costs of mitigation in 2030
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22IPCC
GDP without mitigation
GDP with stringent mitigation
2030
GDP
TimeCurrent
Mitigation would postpone GDP growth of one yearat most over the medium term
Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3%of global GDP
Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth
Schematic graph
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23IPCC
Common drivers lie behind mitigation policies and policies addressing economic development, health, employment, energy security, and local environmental protection
Linking policies provides opportunities for no-regrets policies and reduces mitigation costs
Co-benefits of mitigation
Such policy coherence is especially relevant for developing countries, where economic and social development is the top priority
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24IPCC
All stabilisation levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available
or expected to be commercialisedin coming decades
This assumes appropriate and effective incentives are in place for
their development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion
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25IPCC
Potential of renewable energy in Pakistan
There is substantial potential of renewables in the country for managing the present energy crises as well as meeting the future energy needs1
Only 55% of the Pakistan’s population has access to electricity
Pakistan would need to add 2,000 MW of power generation every year during the period 2007-2015
Most promising renewable energy sources include2:
Hydropower (38,000 MW)Solar (800 million MW)WindBiomass
Sources: 1) Hussain et all, 2008 2) Economic Review, 2004
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26IPCC
Be the change you want to see in the world
A technological society has two choices. First it can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions…Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures.