Saeed Ahmed SiddiqueeAlumni, Jahangirnagar UniversityEmail: shaikatbangla@gmail.com

"Climate Change Indicators and Impacts: Bangladesh Scenario”

Climate Change: Significant change of an avg. weather of a specific regionover a significant period of time (more or less 30 years) is called CC.

Factors of CC: Earth itself, sunlight intensity variation, anthropogenicactivities, geo-engineering, solar radiations, deviation of earth’s orbit, platetectonics, volcanism, earthquake etc.

Physical evidences of CC: Vegetation, ice cores, dendochronology, pollenanalysis, insects, sea level rise etc.

GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, Per Flouro Carbon, CFC, SF6

Most weather vulnerable countries to climate change:

1. Bangladesh 6. Haiti

2. Myanmar 7. Philippine

3. Honduras 8. Dominic

4. Nicaragua 9. Mongolia

5. Vietnam 10. Tajikistan

Dinajpur

Sunamganj

Satkhira

Methodology

• Cyclone-Surge Prone Areas of Satkhira

• Flash Flood-Prone Areas in Sunamganj

• Droughts-Prone Arid Areas of DinajpurStudy Area

• Cyclone-Surge Zone (Irrigated & Non irrigated)

• Flash-Flood Zone (Irrigated & Non irrigated)

• Drought Zone (Irrigated & Non irrigated)

Zone Selection Criteria

• Review of Secondary Information (RSI)

• Reconnaissance Field Visit (RFV)

• Participatory Action Plan Development (PAPD)

• Development of Questionnaire (DQ)

• Field Survey (FS)

• Focus Group Discussion (FGD)

Sample Collection

Results and DiscussionsTrend Analysis of Potential Indicators

1. Indicators of Seasonal Variation

Current Seasons of Study Areas (till 2011)

Previous Seasons of Study Areas (before 30 years)

2. Indicators of Natural Hazards

100%80%

100%

50%70%

50%

10%30%

50%

100%

20%

20%

30%

90%

40%

10%

30%

20%

10% 10%

50%

10%

90%

10% 20%

Increased Decreased No change None

3. Indicators of Climate and Water

50%

50%

90%

20% 20%

10%

80%

10%

80%

10%

Temperature Humidity Rainfall Water availability

GWL and quality

Hot and prolonged Increased Decreased Scarcity Saline

4. Indicators of Agriculture

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

% o

f P

eo

ple

Agricultural Sectors

Summer

Winter

Increased

Decreased

High

Low

Difficult

Easier

5. Indicators of Livestock

20%

70%50%

70%

80%

30%40%

30%

80%50%

30%50%

20% 20% 10%

Increased Decreased Cross and Hybrid

Short Long High

low Not observed

6. Indicators of Fisheries

20%30%

60%

80%70%

40%

40%

60%

50%

CPD Type of fish Species appeared

Species disappeared

Price

Fisheries Indicator

Increased Decreased Smaller Saline High Low

7. Indicators of Food Intake

20%

80%

10%20% 20% 20% 20%

90% 90%50%

20%

20%

70% 70% 70%

20%

10% 8%30%

70%

10% 10% 10%

60%

2%

Not have enough

food

Unable to eat

Take Limited

Variety of food

Take disliked

food

Take smaller

meal

Take fewer meal

Take food at outside

home

Hunger sleep

Hunger day-night

Indicator

Rarely (10 times/year) Sometimes (<45 times/year) Often (>45 times/year)

8. Indicators of Migration

60%

30%

10%

No Migration

Seasonal Migration

Permanent Migration

9. Indicators of Income & Poverty

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100%120%

Subsistence Farming

Commercial Food Production

Access to Seeds

Food from Market

Food from VGD/VGF/Govt.

Employment Level

Income Generating Activities

Income Level

% of People

Ind

ica

tors

Importancy on Nutrition

Increase

Decrease

Recommended Adaptation Measures

Agriculture Use of more heat/drought/salt-tolerant crop varieties in areas

under water stress

Use of more disease- and pest-tolerant crop varieties

Water Resources Management Improved efficiency of irrigation system

Sustainable mode of irrigation in areas frequented by hill torrentsand flash floods

Introduction of rainwater harvesting methods

Fisheries Breed fish tolerant to high water temperatures

Fisheries’ management capabilities to cope with impacts ofclimate change must be developed

Assist communities in establishing deep-sea fishingpractices on a community basis

Introduce more shrimp farms in villages and assist in directmarketing.

Health and Hygiene

Advocate better hygiene practices

Educate communities concerning the spread of vector-borne diseases

Through community involvement, establish wastewater treatmentsystems (Pilot Project model).

Disaster Risk Reduction Capacity building of the communities for future climatic changes

Supporting communities to better adapt to climatic changes

Ensuring risk reduction measures across all the above-mentionedsectors of agriculture, fisheries and health & hygiene.

Food Security

Ensuring household food security via targeted safety nets.

Ensuring household food security by lowering domesticfood prices.

Measures to stimulate a medium-term food grain supplyresponse.

Measures to handle the ‘spillover’ effects of the above-mentioned policy responses

Genetically Modified (GM) research is needed to avoidfood crisis.

"Only when the last tree has died and the last river been poisoned and the last fish been caught

will we realize we cannot eat money" -Cree Indian Proverb.

Thank you.