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FOOD SECURITY IN BANGLADESH
What Role for Social Safety Nets?
Presented by: Akhter Ahmed
Bangladesh Policy Research and Strategy Support Program
International Food Policy Research Institute
Presented at: USAID-Bangladesh | May 4, 2017
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3 types of food insecurity and role of safety nets
1) Chronic food insecurity: About 20 million Bangladeshis who cannot purchase enough rice to meet energy requirements.
Productive safety nets
2) Transitory food insecurity: Those who normally meet energy requirements, but may lose access to food due to shocks.
Emergency relief, social protection to build resilience
3) Hidden hunger: A large percentage of the population is food-insecure due to diet quality vs. quantity.
Safety net + nutrition behavior change communication
IFPRI has created a comprehensive database for food policy analysis in Bangladesh IFPRI-PRSSP’s Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey
(BIHS): most comprehensive, nationally representative rural household survey to date. Largest panel survey.
4 unique features of data collection:
1. plot-level agricultural production
2. individual food intakes of all HH members
3. anthropometry measurements of all HH members
4. data to measure women’s empowerment in agriculture index (WEAI)
BIHS sampling is statistically representative
nationally of rural Bangladesh
rural areas for each of the 7 administrative divisions
USAID-supported Feed the Future Zone in southern Bangladesh
IFPRI’s BIHS: Big data, big impact
Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS): Nationally representative household survey. 2011 - 2015 panel.
Downloads of BIHS dataset to date: 55,000
Diverse users across 6 continents
Food Availability
Changing Scenario of Agriculture
Agrarian structure has important policy implicationsIFPRI BIHS 2015
Land tenure patterns Forms of tenancy
37
45
13
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
Pe
rce
nt
36 37
27
0
10
20
30
40
Pure tenant(no landowned)
Own land only Mixed tenant(own
land+landtaken-in)
Pe
rce
nt
Rice production more than tripled since liberationTotal rice area and production (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), various years)
6,736
9,774
34,773
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
19
47
-48
19
49
-50
19
51
-52
19
53
-54
19
55
-56
19
57
-58
15
59
-60
19
61
-62
19
63
-64
19
65
-66
19
67
-68
19
69
-70
19
71
-72
19
73
-74
19
75
-76
19
77
-78
19
79
-80
19
81
-82
19
83
-84
19
85
-86
19
87
-88
19
89
-90
19
91
-92
19
93
-94
19
95
-96
19
97
-98
19
99
-00
20
01
-02
20
03
-04
20
05
-06
20
07
-08
20
09
-10
20
11
-12
20
13
-14
20
15
-16
Are
a in
‘00
0 a
cres
an
d p
rod
uct
ion
in ‘0
00
mt
Total rice area Total rice production Expon. (Total rice production)
Agricultural growth has slowed down
Agricultural growth has declined mainly due to drop in rice production.
Certain sub-sectors are thriving:
Fish production: average annual growth rate 5.5% over 5 years (2007/08 to 2013)
Livestock subsector: average annual growth rate 3% over 5 years (2007/08 to 2013)
Average agricultural growth rates (%)
Source: BBS, various years
4.7
2.4
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2006/07 - 2010/11 2011/12 - 2015/16
Pe
rce
nt/
year
Crop sector drives agricultural growth
9
6.04
3.87
3.09
6.55
3.89
2.41
1.47
3.81
2.45
1.79
7.00
3.99
2.83
7.57
3.85
1.75
0.59
3.78
1.83
0.88
0
2
4
6
8
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
An
nu
al g
row
th r
ate
(% p
er y
ear)
Fiscal Year
Agriculture and forestry Crops Log. (Agriculture and forestry)
National growth in crop production (BBS, various years)
Annual growth rates, FY2007-2011 (%) Annual growth rates, FY2012-2016 (%)
5.5
8.9
-7.2
8.7
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Rice Maize Pulses Tomatoes
-0.3
23.3
13.2
16.1
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Rice Maize Pulses Tomatoes
Crop diversity increased: Simpson Diversification Index, by divisionIFPRI BIHS data
0.190.18
0.19
0.27 0.27
0.19
0.05
0.21
0.29
0.18
0.23
0.300.28
0.22
0.04
0.24
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet Bangladesh
2011/12 2015
The Simpson diversification index is calculated as 𝑆𝐷𝐼 = 1 − 𝑖=1𝑛 𝑃𝑖
2, where Pi is the proportionate area of the ith crop in gross cropped area.
Real price of rice declined significantly National average wholesale price of coarse rice (BBS, various years)
3740
1133
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Tkp
er q
uin
tal
Magnitude of rice price seasonality reduced (BBS, various years)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Lagged moving average
1977-1979 1991-2000 2011-2015
Large farmers get 4x more extension support than marginal farmers in 2015IFPRI BIHS data
3
9
18
23
9
6
14
18
25
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Marginal (>0-<0.5) Small (.5-1.49) Medium (1.50-2.49) Large(>=2.5) Total
Pe
rce
nt
Farm size groups
2011/12 2015
Food Access
Poverty Dynamics and Income
Prevalence of poverty: Percent of people living on less than $1.25/day in rural BangladeshIFPRI BIHS data
Change in poverty headcount in rural Bangladesh:
39.6% in 2011 29.4% in 2015
Daily per capita consumption expenditures from 2011/12 and 2015 IFPRI household surveys were adjusted for inflation using Basic Needs Price Index (2005 base year) obtained from the World BankUsed the international poverty line of $1.25 per day,
measured at 2005 purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate for Bangladesh: PPP$1.00=25.494 taka (World Bank)Calculated local currency equivalent of PPP $1.25 a day
poverty line using 2012 and 2015 BNPI estimates16
Dynamics of poverty in rural Bangladesh: Changes from 2011 to 2015IFPRI BIHS data
17
52.2
20.0 19.7
8.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Non-poor remained non-poor
Poor remained poor Poor moved out ofpoverty
Non-poor fell intopovery
Pe
rce
nt
of
rura
l po
pu
lati
on
Why do the poor remain poor?
Using multinomial logit regression and IFPRI BIHS panel data, we examined probable reasons why the poor remained in poverty from 2011 to 2015. Main factors that increase the likelihood of remaining in poverty are:
Low levels of human and physical assets: Lack of education of HH heads, land holding, and reduction in total value of other assets
Decrease in nonfarm income share in total income
Decrease in women’s empowerment in agriculture (WEAI)
Decrease in savings; no remittances
No access to electricity and no ownership of cell phone
Longer distance to main road
18
Falling into poverty
Key results from multinomial logit regression suggest that the following factors tend to prevent households from backsliding into poverty:
More schooling of primary male and females in HH
Higher value of asset holding and increase in savings
Receives remittances
Access to electricity
Owns mobile phone
For social safety net beneficiaries, if income transfer is at least 1,500 taka ($19) per month per household.
19
What factors affect farmers’ income?Using random effects panel regression and a sub-sample of IFPRI BIHS data, results show that farmers’ income tends to increase if:
HH male head and female spouse have at least secondary school education
HH male head and female spouse have access to commercial loans
Women are more empowered (measured by WEAI)
Non-farm income share increases
Have access to electricity (solar panel or national grid) and own cell phone
Domestic and international remittances increase
Farmers’ income tends to decrease when:
Share of cropped land under rice cultivation increases
National agricultural wage increased sharplyWage increase helps the poorest (BBS, various years)
In June 2008, agricultural laborers could buy 4.5 kg of rice from a day’s wage
In June 2014, day’s wage increased to 9 kg of rice.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Taka
pe
r d
ay
Nominal Real
Women’s empowerment helps break poverty and hunger traps
IFPRI research results show that an increase in women’s empowerment in agriculture (measured by WEAI) helps
people move out of poverty;
improve household, child, and maternal dietary diversity; and
increase agricultural diversity.
Results also show that increased agricultural diversity improves household dietary diversity.
Source: IFPRI 2011-2015 BIHS surveys
Food Utilization
Nutrition Situation
Household diet quality improved(IFPRI BIHS data, estimated WFP’s Food Consumption Score: 0-112)
Average FCS Percentage of households with low FCS (<42)
23.1
8.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
Pe
rce
nt
56.4
66.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
Foo
d c
on
sum
pti
on
sco
re
24
25
Despite decline, more than 1/3 of
children are still stunted (DHS, various years)
55
18
56
43
17
41
36
14
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Stunting (moderate or severe) Wasting (moderate or severe) Underweight (moderate orsevere)
Per
cen
t
1996-1997 2007 2014
A paradox: stunting is highest in regions of lowest poverty, and vice versa
Source: WFP 2012
26
Child stunting Poverty
Sylhet Division: lowest women’s empowerment, second highest income
Barisal Division: second highest women’s empowerment, second lowest income
Paradox is partly explained by regional difference in women’s empowermentEstimated using IFPRI BIHS data
61.3
47.2 46.8
42.3 41.738.3
23.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Wo
men
’s e
mp
ow
erm
ent
(WEA
I) h
ead
cou
nt
(%)
Source: IFPRI 2015 BIHS
27
58% of girls in rural areas get married before age 18
Adolescent girls aged <19 account for 36% of all child births in rural Bangladesh
Early marriage Early pregnancy Low birthweight Stunting
High rate of adolescent pregnancies is associated with stunting in Bangladesh
58.3
40.8 39.8
34.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
<15 15-16 17-18 19-20
Stu
nti
ng
pre
vale
nce
(%
)
Age groups (years)
Age at child birth and rate of stunting
Source: 2014 DHSSource: IFPRI 2015 BIHS
28
Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh
What role for improving food security?
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Safety Nets in Bangladesh
Formal safety nets redistribute resources to poor people to reduce their economic hardship.
Bangladesh has made significant progress in strengthening social safety nets to assist the poor. Notable changes over the years include:
Converting ration price subsidies to targeted food distribution for the poor
Shifting the focus from relief to development
Engaging NGOs in program implementation
Percentage distribution of safety net programs by FY2013 SSN budget allocation: $2.7 billion, 12% of national budget Top 10 programs account for 62% of total budget
31
0.50.50.70.70.8
1.41.41.51.51.61.81.9
2.22.32.3
2.73.1
3.84.7
5.05.35.4
7.07.0
7.48.8
10.3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Disaster ManagementAllowance for Disabled
Economic Empowerment of Poor (EEP)Ashrayan-2 Project
Maternal, Child and Adolescent HealthResidence for poor freedom fighters
Food Assistance for Chittagong Hill TractsRural Employment and Road Maintenance Program
Gratuitous ReliefSocial Development Foundation
National ServiceAllowances for Destitute WomenHonorarium for Freedom Fighters
Revitalization of Community Healthcare InitiativeFund for climate changeSchool Feeding Program
One Household One FarmSecondary School Stipend
Allocation for various programsVulnerable Group Development
Old Age AllowancePrimary Education Stipend
Employment Generation Program for the PoorVulnerable Group Feeding
Test ReliefFood for Work
Open Market Sales
Source: General Economics Division, Ministry of Planning
Percentage of households in at least 1 safety net program, by income groupsIFPRI BIHS data
32
60.9
52.3
47.7
39.2
22.0
44.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 (poorest) 2 3 4 5 (richest) Rural Bangladesh
Perc
enta
ge o
f h
ou
seh
old
s
Per capita expenditure quintile
Distribution of all safety net participants by income groupsIFPRI BIHS data
33
28.8
23.7
21.2
17.1
9.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 (poorest) 2 3 4 5 (richest)
Perc
enta
ge o
f al
l par
tici
pan
ts
Per capita expenditure quintile
Targeting effectiveness of major safety net programsIFPRI BIHS data
34
31
2422
16
8
1819
26
22
15
27
2422
19
8
31
2625
14
4
35
2325
13
3
37
23
16
20
5
37
24
18
14
7
49
2321
6
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 (poorest) 2 3 4 5 (richest)
Pe
rce
nt
of
ho
use
ho
lds
Primary School Stipend Secondary education stipend Old Age Allowance
GR OMS VGD
VGF EGPP
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Limited impact of safety nets on nutrition
Most existing evidence from evaluations (by IFPRI and others) of major safety nets in Bangladesh show reduced household poverty and improved food security but few improvements in child nutritional status.
This leads to two key questions:
1. Are large-scale social protection interventions that increase resources sufficient to improve child nutrition?
2. Are there constraints other than resources, such as nutrition knowledge, that also need to be addressed?
IFPRI-PRSSP research shows safety net cash transfer + nutrition education has greatest impact on child nutrition
IFPRI designed an experimental program in Bangladesh called the Transfer Modality Research Initia-tive (TMRI).
WFP implemented TMRI from 2012 to 2014 to determine what combination of cash, food, and nutrition behavior change communication (BCC) in safety nets brings the greatest benefits for ultra-poor rural households.
Cash + nutrition BCC led to a 7.3 percentage points decrease in child stunting over the project period—almost three times greater than national average decline in stunting.
46.0
38.7
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
Control Cash + BCC
Stu
nti
ng
rate
fo
r ch
ildre
n <
5 y
ear
s (%
)
In TMRI, child stunting reduced by 7.3 percentage points in two years
Policy Conclusions
Conclusions
38
Recent slowdown of agricultural growth needs attention.
Increase investments in agricultural research to promote rice intensification/productivity.
Rural agricultural labor is no longer abundant, so policies should focus on ways to improve productivity in the wake of rising labor costs.
Mechanization, accelerating the adoption of modern agricultural technologies for improving crop yields, and improving labor productivity may ease farmers’ burden.
About 1/3 of all farm households are “pure tenants” (do not own the land they work). Therefore, they have insecure, prohibitive, and unstable access to land through sharecropping or land-leasing arrangements, which act as a deterrent for technology adoption. Policies should take into account the implications of this important constraint.
Considerations
Accelerate agricultural diversity: Remove risk from production of high-value, high nutritive
value crops through contract farming, agricultural credit, etc.
Promote non-farm employment: IFPRI’s poverty analyses show that an increased share of
non-farm income out of total income helps move people out of poverty.
Promote agriculture-driven, non-farm activities (e.g., vocational training in repairs and servicing of ag machineries, particularly for rural youth).
Gainfully employ rural youth in agricultural value chains (e.g., packaging, transport).
39
Considerations
Links between early marriage and nutrition: Pregnancy in girls who are still growing leads to
competition between the mother and the fetus for access to nutrients, a battle which the fetus invariably loses.
IFPRI’s qualitative results found that girls marry early due to (1) harassment by male youth, and (2) avoid paying higher dowry.
A massive social campaign is needed to increase the age of marriage, as well as to postpone pregnancy of those girls who do marry early.
To delay pregnancy after marriage, promote effective family planning
40
Considerations
Revamp social safety nets to reach the most vulnerable to improve their livelihoods
• Improve the targeting performance
• Scale up effective programs
• Ensure sustainability of program benefits
• Integrate nutrition BCC into social safety nets
• Increase the size of transfers to generate sizable impacts on food security and nutritional outcomes
• Consolidate and simplify programs and phase out high-cost, inefficient programs
• Improve monitoring, evaluation, and learning
• Move beyond coping approaches (safety nets) to risk-reduction approaches (social protection)
41
