climate change in asia: key findings of ipcc ar5
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change in Asia:
Key Findings of IPCC AR5
Rodel D. Lasco
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Outline
• IPCC AR5 findings for Asia
• Case study: Typhoon Haiyan
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31 March 2014
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CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:
IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY
A warming Asia
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IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014
A wetter and drier Asia
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IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014
Food Security
• The impacts of climate change will vary by
region with many regions to experience a
decline in productivity
• Most models, using a range of GCMs and SRES
scenarios, show that higher temperatures will
lead to lower rice yields as a result of shorter
growing periods.
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Food Security
• In Central Asia, some areas could be winners
(cereal production in northern and eastern
Kazakhstan could benefit from the longer
growing season, warmer winters and slight
increase in winter precipitation)
• While others could be losers (western
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, where frequent
droughts could negatively affect cotton
production, increase water demand for
irrigation, and exacerbate desertification).
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Food Security
• In the Indo-Gangetic Plains of South Asia there
could be a decrease of about 50% in the most
favorable and high yielding wheat area due to
heat stress at 2x CO2
• Sea level rise will inundate low lying areas and
will especially affect rice growing regions.
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Adaptation options
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Human Settlements, Industry, and
Infrastructure
• A large proportion of Asia’s population lives in
low elevation coastal zones that are
particularly at risk from climate change
hazards, including sea level rise, storm surges,
and typhoons
• Three of the world’s five most populated cities
(Tokyo, Delhi, and Shanghai) are located in
areas with high risk of floods
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• Flood risk and associated human and material
losses are heavily concentrated in India,
Bangladesh, and China
• Urban planning is essential
• “No regrets” adaptation solution for
developing countries
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Water
• Water scarcity is expected to be a major
challenge for most of the region due to
increased water demand and lack of good
management (medium confidence)
• Water resources are important in Asia because
of the massive population and vary among
regions and seasons.
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Water
• However, there is low confidence in future
precipitation projections at a subregional scale
and thus in future freshwater availability in
most parts of Asia.
• Population growth and increasing demand
arising from higher standards of living could
worsen water security in many parts in Asia
and affect many people in future.
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Water
• Integrated water management strategies
could help adapt to climate change,
– developing water saving technologies
– increasing water productivity
– water reuse.
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Terrestrial Ecosystems
• Terrestrial systems in many parts of Asia have
responded to recent climate change with
shifts in the phenologies, growth rates, and
the distributions of plant species, and
permafrost degradation, and the projected
changes in climate during the 21st Century
will increase these impacts (high confidence)
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Terrestrial Ecosystems
• Boreal trees will likely invade treeless arctic
vegetation, while evergreen conifers will likely
invade deciduous larch forest.
• Large changes may also occur in arid and
semiarid areas, but uncertainties in
precipitation projections make these more
difficult to predict.
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Terrestrial Ecosystems
• The rates of vegetation change in the more
densely populated parts of Asia may be
reduced by the impact of habitat
fragmentation on seed dispersal, while the
impacts of projected climate changes on the
vegetation of the lowland tropics are currently
poorly understood.
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• Maximizing the adaptive capacity of
ecosystems by
– reducing non-climate impacts
– maximizing landscape connectivity
– protecting “refugia” where climate change is
expected to be less than the regional mean
– Habitat restoration
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Coastal and Marine
• Coastal and marine systems in Asia are under
increasing stress from both climatic and non-
climatic drivers (high confidence)
• It is likely that mean sea-level rise will
contribute to upward trends in extreme
coastal high water levels.
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Coastal and Marine
• Mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass beds
may decline unless they can move inland,
while coastal freshwater swamps and marshes
will be vulnerable to saltwater intrusion with
rising sea-levels.
• Damage to coral reefs will increase during the
21st century as a result of both warming and
ocean acidification.
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Coastal and Marine
• Marine biodiversity is expected to increase at
temperate latitudes as warm water species
expand their ranges northwards (high
confidence), but may decrease in the tropics if
thermal tolerance limits are exceeded
(medium confidence).
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Adaptation options
• Increasing connectivity of marine habitats
• Creating marine protected areas where sea
surface temperatures are projected to change
least may increase their future resilience
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Human Health, Security,
Livelihoods, and Poverty
• Increasing mortality and morbidity due to
heat waves.
• An aging population will increase the number
of people at risk, especially those with
cardiovascular and respiratory disorders.
• Climate change is also expected to affect the
spatiotemporal distribution of dengue fever in
the region
•24
• Disaster preparedness on a local community
level could include a combination of
indigenous coping strategies, early-warning
systems, and adaptive measures
• Heat warning systems have been successful in
preventing deaths among risk groups in
Shanghai
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Building Long-Term Resilience from
Tropical Cyclone Disasters
• Tropical cyclone frequency is likely to decrease
or remain unchanged over the 21st century,
while intensity (i.e. maximum wind speed and
rainfall rates) is likely to increase (AR5 WG1 Ch
14.6).
• Densely populated Asian deltas are
particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones
due to their large population density
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Inland and storm surge flooding (Nargis)
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IPCC WG 2 Asia, 2014
• Preparation for extreme tropical cyclone
events through improved governance and
development to reduce their impacts provides
an avenue for building resilience to longer-
term changes associated with climate change
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Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) has
captured global attention
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Tacloban City…before
Tacloban City…after
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• One of the strongest ever to hit land
(>300 kph)
• More than 6,000 died
• More than USD 10 billion in damages
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TACLOBAN CITY
45,522 Households
26 Selected
Barangays
320 HH Samples
PALO
11,342 Households
6 Selected
Barangays
100 HH Samples
ORMOC CITY
38,299 Households
31 Selected
Barangays
250 HH Samples
GEN MACARTHUR
12,214 Households
5 Selected
Barangays
100 HH Samples
QUINAPONDAN
13,841 Households
4 Selected
Barangays
100 HH Samples
870HOUSEHOLDS
(95% Confidence Interval)
870HOUSEHOLDS
(95% Confidence Interval)
Major Cause of Damages
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Tacloban Palo Ormoc General
MacArthur
Quinapondan
Flooding
Storm Surge
Wind
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
w/ mangroves
w/o mangroves
w/ mangroves
w/o mangroves
w/ mangroves
w/o mangroves
w/ mangroves
w/o mangroves
To
tal
Da
ma
ge
He
av
y
Da
ma
ge
Pa
rtial
Da
ma
ge
No
Da
ma
ge
Da
ma
ge
s: Taclo
ba
nC
ity
Mixe
d
Pe
rma
ne
nt
Ligh
t
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
w/ mangroves
w/o mangroves
w/ mangroves
w/o mangroves
w/ mangroves
w/o mangroves
w/ mangroves
w/o mangroves
To
tal
Da
ma
ge
He
av
y
Da
ma
ge
Pa
rtial
Da
ma
ge
No
Da
ma
ge
Da
ma
ge
s: Pa
lo, Le
yte
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
w/ mangroves
w/o mangroves
w/ mangroves
w/o mangroves
w/ mangroves
w/o mangroves
w/ mangroves
w/o mangroves
To
tal
Da
ma
ge
He
av
y
Da
ma
ge
Pa
rtial
Da
ma
ge
No
Da
ma
ge
Da
ma
ge
s: Orm
oc C
ity
Lessons
• How does one prepare for once in lifetime
event?
• How do we communicate risk people have
never experienced before (eg storm surge)?
• How do we build better, given that the
recurrence of this event can take decades or a
century?
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4242RD Lasco 42
Thank You!!!