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11/02/2015 1 Climate change, food and biodiversity after the fifth assessment report of IPCC Jean-François Soussana LA AR5, WGII, IPCC INRA, Paris Coriolis Conference Feb. 11, 2015 IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report Three Working Group Reports of the 5 th Assessment, 2013-2014 WG I : The Physical Science Basis WGII: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change Synthesis report IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Humans are changing the climate Year Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperatures It is extremely likely that we are the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century AR5 WGI SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 SYR SPM Global Warming Potential on a 100 yrs time horizon (relative to CO 2 on a molecular weight basis): CO 2 : 1 CH 4 : 25 N 2 O: 298

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Page 1: The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report · IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis

11/02/2015

1

Climate change, food and biodiversity

after the fifth assessment report of IPCC

Jean-François SoussanaLA AR5, WGII, IPCC

INRA, Paris

Coriolis Conference

Feb. 11, 2015

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report

➜ Three Working Group Reports of the 5 th

Assessment, 2013-2014

• WG I : The Physical Science Basis

• WGII: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

• WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change

• Synthesis report

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Humans are changing the climate

YearGlobally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperatures

It is extremely likely that we are the dominant cau se of warming since the mid-20th century

AR5 WGI SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

AR5 SYR SPM

Global Warming Potential on a 100 yrs time horizon(relative to CO2 on a molecular weight basis):

CO2: 1CH4: 25N2O: 298

Page 2: The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report · IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis

11/02/2015

2

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades

AR5 WGIII SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Sources of emissions

Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissionsAgriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) is the s econd sector

35%24% 21% 14%

6.4%

2010 GHG emissions

Energy Sector

Agriculture, forests and

other land uses

Industry TransportBuilding Sector

AR5 WGIII SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Antropogenic forcings are extremely likely the cause of warming

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Potential Impacts of Climate Change

Food and water shortages

Increased poverty

Increased displacement of people

Coastal flooding

AR5 WGII SPM

Page 3: The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report · IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis

11/02/2015

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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

The Choices We Make Will Create Different Outcomes

With substantial mitigation

Without additionalmitigation

Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100)AR5 WGI SPM

A CHANGING WORLD

WIDESPREADOBSERVED IMPACTS

Widespread forest decline caused by climate change

Observed impacts on crop yields

(% per decade)

Page 4: The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report · IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis

11/02/2015

4

Climate impacts on world food prices

Food prices & social unrest (Lagi et al., 2011)

TSBF, 2007

State of Food Insecurity in the World

2012

FAO, WFP, IFAD

870 million people suffered from chronic

undernourishment between 2010-12

Global hunger index

Food security issues

Prevalence of obesity

1300 million obese people worldwide

(WHO, 2012)

Year Region Meteorological Characteristics

Agriculture, Fisheries, Forestry, Bioenergy

2003 Western and Central Europe

Hottest summer in at least 500 years

Crop harvest losses of 20-30%; Mega-fires;

Health damage (35,000 death)

2004/ 2005 Iberian Peninsula -Portugal

Hydrological drought Grain harvest losses of 40%

2007Southern Europe

Hottest summer on record in Greece since 1891

Mega-fires.

Approx. 575,500 hectares burnt area

2007England and Wales May–July wettest since records

began in 1766.

78 farms flooded. Impacts on agriculture £50 million

2010 Western Russia Hottest summer since 1500 Reduction in crop yields.Export ban.

Mega-Fires: Fire damage to forests; health damage.

2011 France Hottest and driest spring in France since 1880

8% decline in wheat yield

A decade of climate extremes in continental Europe

Page 5: The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report · IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis

11/02/2015

5

WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS

INCREASE

RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

SOCIOECONOMICPROCESSES

SocioeconomicPathways

Adaptation and Mitigation Actions

Governance

CLIMATE

NaturalVariability

AnthropogenicClimate Change

RISKHazards

Exposure

Vulnerability

IMPACTS

EMISSIONS

and Land-use Change

A contrasted future depending

on global GHG emissions

Species migration vs. climate change velocity

(IPCC, 2014)

Page 6: The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report · IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis

11/02/2015

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Corals would be the first biome to disapear(IPCC, 2014)

Major impacts on crop yieldsby the end of the century

Dans un scénario à +4°C, sans adaptation, des risques sérieux pour la sécurité alimentaire mondiale

% change in net irrigation requirements of 11 major crops (1971–2000 to 2070–2099)

Areas currently equipped for irrigation, assuming current management practices.

Increased frequency of heat waves in Europe

by the end of the century

Number of summer heat waves (>5 days) 2071-2100 compare d to 1971-2000 .Heat waves are defined as periods of more than 5 consecutive days with daily maximum temperature exceeding the mean

maximum temperature of the May to September season of the control period (1971-2000) by at least 5°C.

2071-2100 compared to 1971-2000 .Mean of 8 and 9 regional climate models, Eurocordex///// Significant (P<0.05) \\\\\ Robust (>2 models out of 3)

(Jacob et al., 2013; Eurocordex)

. .

Page 7: The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report · IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis

11/02/2015

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Increased frequency of heavy precipitation in Europe

by the end of the century

Heavy precipitation change (%) in heavy precipitation defined as the 95th percentile of daily

precipitation (only days with precipitation > 1mm/day are considered)

2071-2100 compared to 1971-2000 for winter (DJF) .Mean of 8 and 9 regional climate models, Eurocordex///// Significant (P<0.05) \\\\\ Robust (>2 models out of 3)

RCP4.5 RCP8.5

(Jacob et al., 2013; Eurocordex)

Increased frequency of droughtsby the end of the century

Annual duration of droughtsProjected changes in the 95th percentile of the length of dry spells for the period 2071-2100 compared

to 1971-2000 (in days). Dry spells are defined as periods of at least 5 consecutive days with daily

precipitation below 1mm.

2071-2100 compared to 1971-2000 .Mean of 8 and 9 regional climate models, Eurocordex///// Significant (P<0.05) \\\\\ Robust (>2 models out of 3)

RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

(Jacob et al., 2013; Eurocordex)

RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Climate change impacts on ecosystem

services by the 2050’s without adaptation

Alpine

Impact-1 0 1

Num

ber

of s

tudi

es

0

5

10

15

20

25

Atlantic

Impact

-1 0 1

Nu

mbe

r o

f stu

die

s

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Continental

Impact

-1 0 1

Num

ber

of

stud

ies

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Northern

Impact

-1 0 1

Nu

mb

er o

f st

udi

es

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Southern

Impact

-1 0 1

Num

ber

of s

tud

ies

0

5

10

15

20

25

Provisioning

Regulating

Cultural

Ecosystem services

Projectedclimate change

impacts on wheat yields in Europe by 2030

(JRC, 2012)

ECHAM5

HADCM3

Without adaptation With adaptation

Page 8: The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report · IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis

11/02/2015

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Increased forest fires

(IPCC, 2014)

Key risks for Europe

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C

A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in

greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks

Implementing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions poses

substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional

challenges

But delaying mitigation will substantially increase the

challenges associated with limiting warming to 2°C

AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM

Measures exist to achieve the substantial emissions reductions required

to limit likely warming to 2°C (40-70% reduction in GHGs globally by

2050 and near zero GHGs in 2100)

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Mitigation Measures

More efficient use of energy

Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy• Many of these technologies exist today

Improved carbon sinks

• Reduced deforestation and improved forest management

and planting of new forests

• Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage

Lifestyle and behavioural changesAR5 WGIII SPM

Page 9: The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report · IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis

11/02/2015

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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Ambitious Mitigation Is Affordable

➜ Economic growth reduced by ~ 0.06%

(BAU growth 1.6 - 3%)

➜ This translates into delayed and not forgone growth

➜ Estimated cost does not account for the benefits of

reduced climate change

➜ Unmitigated climate change would create

increasing risks to economic growth

AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

The window for action is rapidly closing

65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°°°°C goal already used

Amount Used1870-2011:

1900GtCO2

Amount Remaining:

1000GtCO2

Total Carbon Budget:

2900GtCO2

AR5 WGI SPM

The agriculture, forestry and land use sectorTowards a biobased economy

(Billions tons of dry-matter) (IPCC, 2014)

Greenhouse gas fluxes in agriculture and forestry

Page 10: The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report · IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis

11/02/2015

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Soils contain three times

more carbon than the atmosphere

(UNEP, FAO, JRC 2010)

Agricultural emissions are increasing, but net forestry CO2 emissions have

fallen recently

• AFOLU accounts for 24% of

total anthropogenic GHG

emissions

• AFOLU is the only sector where

net emissions fell in the most

recent decade

• Whilst agricultural non-CO2

GHG emissions increased, net

CO2 emissions fell, mainly due

to decreasing deforestation,

and increased afforestation

rates

IPCC WGIII AR5

Emissions intensity of AFOLU products is falling as agriculture and forestry

become more efficient

• Note that ruminant meat has a GHG intensity much higher than other

agricultural products

• But also note that these are direct emissions only. If we include the emissions

from the human-edible feed for mono-gastric animal products, they move

closer to ruminant meatIPCC WGIII AR5

What is the potential of the mitigation options for reducing GHG

emissions in the AFOLU Sector?

• Global economic mitigation potentials in agriculture in 2050 are estimated to be

0.5─10.6 GtCO2eq/yr. (current global emissions reach 49 GtCO2eq/yr)

• Reducing food losses & waste: GHG emission savings of 0.6─6.0 GtCO2eq/yr.

• Changes in diet: GHG emission savings of 0.7─7.3 GtCO2eq/yr.

• Forestry miMgaMon opMons are esMmated to contribute 0.2─13.8 GtCO2/yr.

IPCC WGIII AR5

Page 11: The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report · IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis

11/02/2015

11

AFOLU mitigation options:

SUPPLY SIDE

Livestock mgmt. Cropland mgmt. Int. systems Forestry

… and bioenergy

DEMAND SIDE

Dietary changeImprovement in the food chainUse of wood products

Bioenergy: Global Technical Bioenergy Potential for 2050

AFOLU and sustainable development

Biodiversity

Food and water security Livelihoods and equity

Income

Ecosystem services

AR5 AFOLU Summary Findings:

• 20-24% of anthropogenic GHG emissions come from the AFOLU sector (ca. 9 –

12 GtCO2e/yr); crop and livestock agriculture is now the dominant source of

AFOLU emissions

• A combination of supply-side and demand side options can reduce up to 80%

the emissions from the sector by 2030.

• Assessment of overall potential, including bioenergy, needs to include analysis

of trade-offs and feedbacks with land-use competition

• Many positive linkages with sustainable development and with adaptation

exist, but are case- and site specific as they depend on scale, scope, and pace of

implementation.

• Good governance is central for reducing mitigation barriers in this sector and

ensure multiple co-benefits for rural development and food security are

achieved

Page 12: The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report · IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis

11/02/2015

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Socio-economic drivers: SSPs

(IPCC, WGIII, 2014)

General- rapid development of Low Income Countries (LIC)

- reduction of inequality among and within economies

- low population growth

- reducing resource intensity

- reducing fossil fuel dependency

- increased planned urbanization in LIC and MIC

- opened globalized economy

- countries cooperate to achieve development

and environmental goals

- rapid technological change and technology transfer

- standards of living converge

Agriculture- high land productivity

- rapid tech change – yield increasing technologies

- rel. low level of animal products consumption

SSP1: Sustainability

(IPCC, WGIII, 2014)

SSP2: Middle of the Road – “Current Trends Continue”

General- medium economic growth overall

- slow convergence between LIC and HIC

- inequality remains high

- population growth moderate – high in some LICs

- reducing resource intensity (slower than SSP1)

- reducing fossil fuel dependency (slower than SSP1)

- uneven planned urbanization in LIC

- world economy fragmented – reduced flows of trade and

technologies

- rapid technological change in HIC but not shared with LIC

Agriculture- trade barriers in agricultural markets remain

(IPCC, WGIII, 2014)

SSP3: Fragmentation

General- slow development with high inequalities

- pockets of extreme poverty

- high population growth

- unplanned settlements growing in LIC

- low investments in R&D

- slow technological change

- little progress in reducing resource intensity

- weak governance and institutions

- de-globalization – reduced intl trade flows

- little international cooperation

Agriculture

(IPCC, WGIII, 2014)

Page 13: The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report · IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis

11/02/2015

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World population

(IPCC, WGIII, 2014)

SustainabilityMiddle of the roadFragmentationInequalityConventional development

World GDP per capita

(IPCC, WGIII, 2014)

SustainabilityMiddle of the roadFragmentationInequalityConventional development

Crop yield development

Crop yield developments projected as a function of GDP per capita.

(Havlik et al., in prep.)

Sustainability

Middle of the road

Fragmentation

Inequality

Conventional dev.

[kg

pro

tein

pro

du

ct /

kg

pro

tein

fe

ed

]

Feed conversion efficiencies

+ additional assumptions on the speed of switches between livestock production systems

(Havlik et al., in prep.)

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11/02/2015

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53

Human diet preferences [kcal/cap/day]

(Havlik et al., in prep.)

SSP1. Sustainability

SSP2. Middle of the road

SSP3. Fragmentation

54

Animal calorie consumption in 2050 [kcal/cap/day]

(Havlik et al., in prep.)

SSP1. Sustainability

SSP2. Middle of the road

SSP3. Fragmentation

55

Agricultural losses and food wastes

(Havlik et al., in prep.)

SSP1. Sustainability

SSP2. Middle of the road

SSP3. Fragmentation

56

Net forest area change 2000-2050 [Mio Ha]

(Havlik et al., in prep.)

SSP1. Sustainability

SSP2. Middle of the road

SSP3. Fragmentation

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11/02/2015

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57

Additional irrigation water consumption compared to 2000 [%]

(Havlik et al., in prep.)

SSP1. Sustainability

SSP2. Middle of the road

SSP3. Fragmentation

.058

Two international science conferences in 2015,ahead of COP21 in Paris.

—Third Global Science Conference on « Climate-Smart Agriculture »,

Montpellier, March 16-18, 2015

• http://csa2015.cirad.fr

— « Our common future under Climate Change »,

Paris, UNESCO, July 07-10, 2015

• www.commonfuture-paris2015.org

Thank you for your attention!