climate change: implications for agriculture
DESCRIPTION
Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) The Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the most comprehensive and relevant analysis of our changing climate. It provides the scientific fact base that will be used around the world to formulate climate policies in the coming years. This document is one of a series synthesizing the most pertinent findings of AR5 for specific economic and business sectors. It was born of the belief that the agriculture sector could make more use of AR5, which is long and highly technical, if it were distilled into an accurate, accessible, timely, relevant and readable summary.Although the information presented here is a ‘translation’ of the key content relevant to this sector from AR5, this summary report adheres to the rigorous scientific basis of the original source material. Grateful thanks are extended to all reviewers from both the science and business communities for their time, effort and invaluable feedback on this document. The basis for information presented in this overview report can be found in the fully-referenced and peer-reviewed IPCC technical and scientific background reports at: www.ipcc.chTRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change: Implica0ons for Agriculture Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fi7h Assessment Report June 2014
climateeveryone’s business
Climate change impacts are projected to raise global average surface temperature 2.6–4.8oC by 2100. Climate-‐related impacts are already reducing crop yields in some parts of the world, a trend that is projected to conKnue as temperatures rise further. Combined with increasing food demand, global temperature increases of 4oC or more would pose large risks to food security globally and regionally.
Climate Change: Key Findings
Staple crops affected include: § Wheat § Maize § Rice
climateeveryone’s business
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture comprised about 10–12% of man-‐made GHG emissions in 2010. The agricultural sector is the largest contributor of non-‐carbon GHGs, such as methane. If temperatures increase by 3oC or more, agricultural adapKve capacity is projected to be exceeded in regions closest to the equator.
Climate Change: Key Findings
The agricultural sector has significant poten0al to make cuts in GHG
emissions.
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Key Findings
OpportuniKes for miKgaKon include: § Reducing emissions from land use change § Land management § Livestock management
Capture and storage of carbon in soil and biomass. Economy-‐wide emissions from energy use can be reduced, under certain condiKons, by replacing fossil fuels with biofuels.
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Key Findings
The potenKal for reducing GHG emissions from agriculture through changes in consumpKon could be substanKally higher than technical miKgaKon opKons. Approaches include:
§ Reducing food waste § Reducing overconsumpKon in regions
where this is prevalent § Changing diets towards less GHG-‐
intensive food (e.g. subsKtuKon of animal products with plant-‐based food)
Farmers can adapt to some changes, but there is a limit to what can be
managed.
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Key Findings
Climate change is projected to: § Increase price volaKlity for agricultural
commodiKes § Reduce food quality
Overall, climate change is projected to cause food producKon to fall, with lower yields from major crops. These projected impacts will occur in the context of simultaneously rising crop demand. The agricultural industry’s own interests are best served by ambiKous approaches to adaptaKon and to cu_ng emissions.
For more informa0on
Cambridge InsKtute for Sustainability Leadership [email protected]
Edward Cameron, BSR
European Climate FoundaKon [email protected]
www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc
www.bsr.org www.europeanclimate.org