climate change impacts and water in western balkan blaz kurnik eea + colleagues from etc
TRANSCRIPT
Climate change impacts and water in Western Balkan
Blaz KurnikEEA
+colleagues from ETC
Outline
• Introduction
•Climate impacts and water extremes (from past to future)
• Assessing tools for climate prediction and impact modelling (simplicity vs. complexity)
• Preliminary results
• Conclusions
Report about climate impacts and vulnerability in Europe
Water related natural hazards (e.g. droughts and water scarcity)
Water related natural hazards (e.g. floods)
Simple indices vs. water balance model
The SPI is an index based on the probability of recording a given amount of precipitation, and the probabilities are standardized so that an index of zero indicates the median precipitation amount
McKee et al. 1993
Easy to compute (historical and operational precipitation data)
Drought is calculated using only precipitations
A physically based distributed rainfall-runoff model programmed in a dynamic GIS-language
Calculation of the soil moisture – important drought indicator
Complex model which needs a lot of validation and calibration for different regions
Impact models (components of water cycle modelling)
Inter- linkages and feedback
effects
Trends in European precipitation
Variability of rainfalls in last 100 yearsPrecipitation trends
Trends in droughts
Europe
South Eastern Europe
droughts
droughts
Climate projections and impact models
Cli
mat
e m
od
el
Imp
act
mo
del
s
Trends in droughtsEurope
SE Europe
Average drought conditions in the future climate
Europe
SE Europe
95th
75th
50th – mean25th
5th
Scenarios:
Scenario 1: The good society in Balkan (low climate change impacts in the region, sustainable economic development), state in 2060
Scenario 2: yes, we can! Technogarden in Balkans (high climate change impacts in the region, sustainable economic development )- state in 2060
Scenario 3: Run to the hills (low climate change impacts in the region, un-sustainable economic development )- state in 2060
Scenario 4: downward spiral (high climate change impacts in the region, un-sustainable economic development ) - state in 2060
Changes in water extremes - droughts
Changes in surface run-off
Changes in surface run-off
Intermediate conclusions and way forward
• Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are important tool to assess future climates at the regional level;
• socio - economic scenarios are very important factor in predicting climate associated risks;
• strong agreement among scenarios and RCMs for drought occurrence in southern Europe;
• weaker agreement among scenarios and models concerning surface run-off;
Intermediate conclusions and way forward
• Presented results are based on on-going work and need to be carefully studied;
• clear definition of the criteria on which land cover scenario are based;
• need for using larger ensemble of the regional climate models (based on the local knowledge) – regional cooperation;