climate change: globally and in iowa
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Climate Change: Globally and In Iowa. Eugene S. Takle Director, Climate Science Initiative Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Climate Change:Globally and In Iowa
Climate Change:Globally and In Iowa
Eugene S. TakleDirector, Climate Science Initiative
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
Eugene S. TakleDirector, Climate Science Initiative
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
PEOAmes, Iowa
22 June 2010
Base period 1961-90
Observations: global mean temperature andcarbon dioxide are rising together since 1860
Global average sea level is rising from expansion of water due to warming and melting glaciers
www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/
Since 1992 sealevel has risen 55mm(2.2 inches)
Models: Natural processes do not account forobserved 20th century warming after 1965
Observed Trends in Iowa Precipitation
Observed Trends in Iowa Precipitation
State-Wide Average Data
State-Wide Average Data
31.5”
37.5”
19% increase
State-Wide Average Data
Totals above 40” 8 years2 years
State-Wide Average Data
Cedar Rapids Data
28.0” 37.0”32% increase
Cedar Rapids Data
7.8” 51% increase 11.8”
Cedar Rapids Data
20.2” 34% increase 26.8”
“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Cedar Rapids Data
4.2 days 57% increase 6.6 days
Cedar Rapids Data
4.2 days 57% increase 6.6 days
2
11Years having more than 8 days
Great Flood of 1993 in the US Midwest:A New “Great Lake”
Lakshmi, V., and K. Schaaf, 2001: Analysis of the 1993 Midwestern flood using satellite and ground data. IEEE Trans. Geosci & Remote Sens., 39, 1736-1743.
Historical Data indicate this should happen about once every 500 years
Projected Future Trends in Iowa Precipitation
Projected Future Trends in Iowa Precipitation
“The future isn’t what it used to be”
Yogi Berra
Global Carbon Emissions (Gt)
Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Limit to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic Interference” with the climate system
Energy intensiveBalanced fuel sourcesMore environmentally friendly
2oC limit
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Low confidence
Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.
Trend of increase in occurrence of heavy precipitation over the 20th C is consistent with increasing GHG concentrations.
Frequency of intense precipitation events is likely to increase in the future.
Relationship of Streamflow to Precipitation in Current and Future Climates
Relationship of Streamflow to Precipitation in Current and Future Climates
SWAT (RegCM2): 21 % increase in precip -> 50% increase in streamflow
DrainMod (RegCM2): 24 % increase in precip -> 35% increase in tile drainage
DrainMod (HIRHAM): 32 % increase in precip -> 80% increase in tile drainage
Iowa Agricultural Producers’ Adaptations to Climate Change
Iowa Agricultural Producers’ Adaptations to Climate Change
Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later
Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows
More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields
Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces
Fewer extreme heat events: higher planting densities, fewer pollination failures
Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist conditions. more problems with fall crop dry-down, wider bean heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest period during the daytime.
Drier autumns: delay harvest to take advantage of natural dry-down conditions
Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later
Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows
More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields
Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces
Fewer extreme heat events: higher planting densities, fewer pollination failures
Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist conditions. more problems with fall crop dry-down, wider bean heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest period during the daytime.
Drier autumns: delay harvest to take advantage of natural dry-down conditions
HIGHER YIELDS!!Is it genetics or climate? Likely
some of each.
For More InformationFor More Information
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website: http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/
Contact me directly: [email protected]
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website: http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/
Contact me directly: [email protected]