climate change & global warming · the global warming sceptic ‘sceptics’ have few credible...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1
Climate Change & Global Warming
Courtesy IPCC
![Page 2: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
A topic of the times
![Page 3: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
![Page 4: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Do we notice Global Warming?
Daily events don’t show up global warming
Aberdeen mean temps Jan 1996 - 15th Feb 2003
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
day number
Deg
rees
Cel
sius
![Page 5: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
How do we find the facts?
Satellitespast 30 years
Temperature recordspast 250 yearsneed well-calibrated
data Proxies further back
Courtesy: IPCC
![Page 6: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Proxies
Proxiesplant growth (e.g. tree rings) coral growth relative abundance of species relative abundance of isotopes in
deposits
Few proxies depend on temperature alone
![Page 7: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Global mean surface
temperatures have
increased
Courtesy: IPCC (2007)
![Page 8: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
The IPCC
![Page 9: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Climate Change over 200 Millennia Temperature changes given by the Greenland Ice Core
Project (GRIP) warmer higher on the graph
O18/O16 ratio in pptv
-45
-40
-35
-30
0 50 100 150 200 250
kyr
O18
/O16
ratio
![Page 10: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
A Table of Climate Related Measurables from Ice Cores
CO2, CH4 Greenhouse gasesSO2, ash Volcanic eruptions10Be, 36Cl Solar activity18O/16O Temperaturethickness Precipitationdust Wind speedanions/cations Atmospheric circulation
Courtesy USGS
![Page 11: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Longer ice-core temperature series
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/vostok/jouz_tem.htm
cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/domec/domec.html
![Page 12: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Climate change conclusions There have been large fluctuations in global
temperatures over very long timescales from natural causes are there hidden patterns? Patterns point to causes. There are
some patterns
Some possible direct causes: variation in the parameters of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun
(this variation does contribute definite climate patterns and is the strongest single effect changing climate)
the effect of plate tectonics and volcanoes on the climate variation in the Sun’s total output (his aspect is more subtle than
you might think. Obvious light output of the Sun is astonishingly stable)
![Page 13: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
An overview of the climate system
Courtesy: IPCC 2007
![Page 14: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since the pre- industrial era
Courtesy: IPCC (2001)
![Page 15: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Long-term greenhouse gas changes
10,000 years of concentrations of CO2 (carbon dioxide), CH4(methane) and NO (nitrous oxide) from ice-core measurementsinserts show changes since
1750radiative forcings on right-
hand side
Courtesy IPCC AR4
![Page 16: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Focus on CO2 trends
![Page 17: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
IR absorption spectra
The peak emission of IR from the Earth is at about 10 wavelength
Earth’s IR emission (blackbody 291 K)
![Page 18: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
The Carbon Cycle
The natural exchange of CO2 between atmosphere and biosphere is > 100 Gtonnes yr-1
this is known as the carbon cycle
Mankind’s production of 8 G tonnes CO2 per year is a small fraction about 5 GTonnes yr-1 is absorbed
Courtesy http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/l
ectures/kling/carbon_cycle/carbon_cycle_new.html
![Page 19: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Constant emissions of CO2 do not lead to stabilization of atmospheric concentrations
Courtesy: IPCC (2001)
![Page 20: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Projected concentrations of CO2 during the 21st
century are two to four times the pre-industrial levelCourtesy: IPCC
![Page 21: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
Estimated global warming this century
![Page 22: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
Temperature changes in 20 and 90 years
Source: IPCC summary for policymakers 2007
![Page 23: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Best estimate of warming variation with an average rise of 4ºC since 1890
Climate modelling result
When (if) depends on international policies
Most land-masses will show a rise of much more than 4ºC
Met Office Hadley Centre/ New Scientist Oct. 2009
![Page 24: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Anthropogenic forcing
24
Observed changes
Natural variation
+ mankind
Computer predictions including natural causes and
anthropogenic emissions
![Page 25: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Radiative forcing
25Courtesy: IPCC (2013)
![Page 26: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
Effects of global warming Climate change variable around world; generally
wetter; some dry areas will get drier, some areas colder
Raising of world sea level thermal expansion of sea melting of land-based ice
Variation of ecosystems population shifts and national economic changes
Ocean current changes
NASA :pictureRadarsat
NOAA :courtesy
![Page 27: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Environmental effects of global warming
Courtesy IPCC 2013/14
![Page 28: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
Implications
Rainfall and drought changes will have a major impact
![Page 29: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
Some conclusions
There is no ‘stop’ button for climate change The factors that affect global
climate all interact
We can’t turn the clock backevery year we start from a different place
We need to plan for global climate change
![Page 30: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30
The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments
they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting opinion as fact, holding themselves up as misunderstood martyrs, pouring invective on their opponents, misrepresenting and not understanding the science
Why don’t global temperatures follow CO2 trends? see the notes the balance of probabilities is against the sceptical position on global warming scepticism as a principle is part of science
Sceptic, David Bellamy
From: http://newsbusters.org/static/2007/10/2007-10-17GlobalWarming.jpg
![Page 31: Climate Change & Global Warming · The Global Warming Sceptic ‘Sceptics’ have few credible arguments they are fond of quoting each other rather than valid science, presenting](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050304/5f6cdda59e69cc78ba5c5e92/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31
Future change
Global problems need global solutions technology – infrastructure economics - legislation
Scottish wind-power sites