Climate ChangeEnergy SecurityGlobal Equity

Happy Planet Index 2.0 NEF (2009)

Climate ChangeIn 1996 EU agrees on < 2cIn 2007 IPCC state BAU is 6.4In 2008 stern predicts cost could be 2% GDP

Chart1

100

104

108

112

116

120

124

122

120

116

104.4

92.8

84.448

76.84768

69.9313888

63.637563808

57.9101830653

52.6982665894

47.9554225964

43.6394345627

39.711885452

36

33

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29

27

25

23

21

19

17

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13

11

9

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1

0

Andersen (ish)

Time

Emissions

Andersen - Decarbonisation

Sheet1

Andersen Demo

TimeEmissionsAndersen (ish)BasicAim

100100100100

10210497.5102

10410895104

10911292.5106

11411690108

12012087.5110

12612485112

13212282.5113

13012080111

12611677.5107

114.66104.47595.4

104.340692.872.583.8

94.94994684.4487076.258

86.4044508676.8476867.569.39478

78.628050282669.93138886563.1492498

71.551525757263.63756380862.557.465817318

65.11188843957.91018306536052.2938937594

59.251818479552.698266589457.547.587443321

53.919154816447.95542259645543.3045734221

49.066430882943.639434562752.539.4071618141

44.650452103439.7118854525035.8605172509

40.63191141413647.532

36.9750393868334529

33.6472858423142.526

30.6190301162294024

27.86331740582737.522

25.3556188393253520

23.07361314372332.518

20.9969879608213016

19.10725904431927.514

17.3876057303172512

15.82272121461522.510

14.398676305313208

13.10279543781117.56

11.92354384849154

10.8504249021712.52

9.87388666095100

8.985236861437.5

8.176565543925

7.440674644912.5

6.771013926900

Sheet1

Andersen (ish)

Time

Emissions

Andersen - Decarbonisation

Sheet2

Sheet3

This is not some slow, uncontrolled change were talking about. Its fast, its unpredictable and its unprecedented during human civilization.WWF

Climate ChangeMeinshausen (2009):Global emissions must cut by 72% from 1990 levels by 2050 for an 84% chance of avoiding two degrees warming and emissions must then near zero by 2100 globally.

Climate Change, 2 degrees?Hansen (2008) need < 1.7 degrees warmingSmall island states and Least Developed Countries call for 1.5 degrees..Temperature lags emissions, already on course for 1.4 degrees?

AccountingEmissions have been outsourced Regaining manufacture (e.g. renewables) for job creation. So these emissions may start coming back.

EquityImpacts are not equally dispersed. Historic emissions are not equalResources to adapt are not equal

The average British citizen emits over 1000 times more C02 than the average Afghani.

Climate Change

Gapminder

The Age of Oilwe are about here

One thing is clear; the age of easy oil is over.CEO, Chevron

Six published papers topic specificOne final reportDynamic Energy ModelsWhat now?

Sustainable land Use: 9th SeptPolicy and Economics: 30th Sept

www.zerocarbonbritain.com Latter Seminars

Smithsonian festival in Washington - JuneUN Climate Change Conference DecemberPublication Q1 2010. Milestones

Working with Dr Caroline Lucas MEPDr Jeremy LeggettColin Challen MP

Universities

Industry

Research centres

Funding fromIndividuals

And equivalents

Diverse groups meetingCurrent TargetsClimate ScienceContext outcomes

Chart1

100

104

108

112

116

120

124

122

120

116

104.4

92.8

84.448

76.84768

69.9313888

63.637563808

57.9101830653

52.6982665894

47.9554225964

43.6394345627

39.711885452

36

33

31

29

27

25

23

21

19

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Andersen (ish)

Time

Emissions

Andersen - Decarbonisation

Sheet1

Andersen Demo

TimeEmissionsAndersen (ish)BasicAim

100100100100

10210497.5102

10410895104

10911292.5106

11411690108

12012087.5110

12612485112

13212282.5113

13012080111

12611677.5107

114.66104.47595.4

104.340692.872.583.8

94.94994684.4487076.258

86.4044508676.8476867.569.39478

78.628050282669.93138886563.1492498

71.551525757263.63756380862.557.465817318

65.11188843957.91018306536052.2938937594

59.251818479552.698266589457.547.587443321

53.919154816447.95542259645543.3045734221

49.066430882943.639434562752.539.4071618141

44.650452103439.7118854525035.8605172509

40.63191141413647.532

36.9750393868334529

33.6472858423142.526

30.6190301162294024

27.86331740582737.522

25.3556188393253520

23.07361314372332.518

20.9969879608213016

19.10725904431927.514

17.3876057303172512

15.82272121461522.510

14.398676305313208

13.10279543781117.56

11.92354384849154

10.8504249021712.52

9.87388666095100

8.985236861437.5

8.176565543925

7.440674644912.5

6.771013926900

Sheet1

Andersen (ish)

Time

Emissions

Andersen - Decarbonisation

Sheet2

Sheet3

New build Zero Carbon (in use)Large-scale retrofit (VAT free)Selective demolition / reconstruction Occupant education and industry skillsBuilding management systemsBuildings

Embodied energy of materials and processesFocus on fabric and EROEI of buildingUsing our Carbon budget.Now: Industrial ecologyMoving beyond energy in use

Chart2

100100100

10497.5102

10895104

11292.5106

11690108

12087.5110

12485112

12282.5113

12080111

11677.5107

104.47595.4

92.872.583.8

84.4487076.258

76.8476867.569.39478

69.93138886563.1492498

63.63756380862.557.465817318

57.91018306536052.2938937594

52.698266589457.547.587443321

47.95542259645543.3045734221

43.639434562752.539.4071618141

39.7118854525035.8605172509

3647.532

334529

3142.526

294024

2737.522

253520

2332.518

213016

1927.514

172512

1522.510

13208

1117.56

9154

712.52

5100

37.5

25

12.5

00

Andersen (ish)

Basic

Aim

Time

Emissions

Alternative Decarbonisation

Sheet1

Andersen Demo

TimeEmissionsAndersen (ish)BasicAim

100100100100

10210497.5102

10410895104

10911292.5106

11411690108

12012087.5110

12612485112

13212282.5113

13012080111

12611677.5107

114.66104.47595.4

104.340692.872.583.8

94.94994684.4487076.258

86.4044508676.8476867.569.39478

78.628050282669.93138886563.1492498

71.551525757263.63756380862.557.465817318

65.11188843957.91018306536052.2938937594

59.251818479552.698266589457.547.587443321

53.919154816447.95542259645543.3045734221

49.066430882943.639434562752.539.4071618141

44.650452103439.7118854525035.8605172509

40.63191141413647.532

36.9750393868334529

33.6472858423142.526

30.6190301162294024

27.86331740582737.522

25.3556188393253520

23.07361314372332.518

20.9969879608213016

19.10725904431927.514

17.3876057303172512

15.82272121461522.510

14.398676305313208

13.10279543781117.56

11.92354384849154

10.8504249021712.52

9.87388666095100

8.985236861437.5

8.176565543925

7.440674644912.5

6.771013926900

Sheet1

Andersen (ish)

Time

Emissions

Andersen - Decarbonisation

Sheet2

Andersen (ish)

Basic

Aim

Time

Emissions

Alternative Decarbonisation

Sheet3

Power Up Seminar:Germany proves 100% renewably powered grid can meet variable demand. Backup generation cheaper than storageHuge potential of Desert TechHigh performance not high efficiency.

*Last night you had a presentation on CAT projects. Zero Carbon Britain was one of those.. To help frame the day Im going to preset on the Drivers for change aka Global Context section of Zero Carbon Britain and a bit about work this year on Zero Carbon Britain 2.*We previously reported on how in Britain as a geographical region we could decrease our energy demand by 50% and then meet the remaining demand with renewable sources. Now we are looking at the next stage, how can Britain as a geographical region, as business area and as a population play its part in decreasing global emissions. The reasons we are doing this are as follows..**Would be good to have graph of human development index correlated with GDP (per capita) here.

*Get IPPR figures on cost aswell.*Get IPPR figures on cost aswell.**Get IPPR figures on cost aswell.*Get IPPR figures on cost aswell.*Get IPPR figures on cost aswell.*More than numbers..*Add figures about hunger.Ecological footprint of nations.Carbon entitlements.. *HDI Health, knowledge, standard of living, social exclusion.2005ish.

*HDI Health, knowledge, standard of living, social exclusion.2005ish.

*UN state peak oil from conventional sources between 2000 and 2010.

**********Provisional dates. Content.Energy Power up renewable generation.Policy, Action and Economics.Sustainable Land UseTransportBuildings**Scientific and political targets.Evidence based scenario needed!What can we say, rather than what do we need.

**Recognition of the small impact of new build to energy in-use of our building stock.

*These are things we want to think about.. Rather than what we will solve!

Today we have range of presentation that to help answer these questions.

*Decreasing the embodied energy, even keeping everything else the same would offer decarbonisation 10% quicker (4 years earlier) under an Andersens style model. In other words helping to make a rapid decarbonisation possible. It would also help keep those concerned with resource depletion happy.

This also questions the value of short term targets.. But anyway.This may even question the value of looking at current emissions and focus on their interpretation, are they locking us into old technology or are they facilitating a rapid carbon decent?

**While we dont have time to present the report here fully, hopefully that little insight into the project is enough to capture your interest.