Climate Change and Food Securityin the Caribbean

Using scenario analyses for decision support

Adrian Trotman

Chief of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (Ag)

Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology

State of agriculture and foodin the Caribbean

• Agriculture’s contribution to the economies of CARICOM states have been on the decline since the 1970s

• Net agricultural trade moved from being a surplus of US$2.9 billion in 1988 to a deficit of US$2.2 billion in 2004 (CARICOM donor conference draft document 2007)

• Losses in preferential markets for traditional crops in Europe

• Except for Guyana and Belize, CARICOM states became net importers of food

• The Jagdeo Initiative, seeks to breathe new life into the agriculture and related sectors

Recent Climate-related Impacts

• Flooding in Guyana in 2005 - affected 37 % of the population, 34 deaths, approximately US$55 million in damage to the agricultural sector. A similar, but smaller-scale event the following year resulted in total losses to the sector of US$22.5 million (ECLAC 2005, ECLAC 2006).

• In Grenada, damage to the agricultural sector by Hurricane Ivan (2004) totalled almost US$40 million. Damage to the nutmeg sub-sector concern for 30,720 ‘employees’ (OECS 2004). Spice industry set back 10 years.

• An intense drought event in 1999-2000 caused US$6 million in crop losses Jamaica (Jamaica Information Service, Ministry of Finance 2007).

• Coral reef deterioration, fish kills

Projected Climate Change

• 90% chance that temperatures will rise across the Caribbean - increase in the annual temperature could be in the range of 2 to 2.5oC

• likely (66%) that sea levels will rise in the Caribbean during this century

• rainfall is likely (66%) to decrease in the Greater Antilles (particularly in June & August) – however, projected decrease in annual precipitation in the region of 5 to 15% in Caribbean basin

WITH INCREASING VARIABILITY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS LIKELY TO BE EXCEEDED MORE OFTEN

Grenada

Trinidad and Tobago

Barbados

Belize

Guyana

Jamaica Antigua & Barbuda

The Bahamas

St Kitts & Nevis

St LuciaSt Vincent & The Grenadines

Dominica

Haiti

Montserrat

Suriname

The Caribbean Regionhighlighting CARICOM members

Key Policy Goals• Increasing food self-

sufficiency• Improving trade policies

& competitiveness• Implementing CSM and

the CSME

Issues• Increasing

extreme events• Changes in sea

currents & level• ‘Ridge-to-Reef’

impacts of land degradation

Caribbean

Example Stakeholders

National ag, env & tourism ministriesRegional IGOs (CARICOM, IICA)

Regional research bodies(FAO, CCCCC, CIMH, UWI, CARDI)

Key Caribbean climate and other GEC issues,food security policy priorities

and development goals

Analysing Food Systemsin context of drivers and feedbacks

Source: Zurek, M. & Ericksen, P. (2006) A Conceptual Framework Describing Food System – GEC Interactions. In prep.

Food System ACTIVITIESProducing

Processing & PackagingDistributing & Retailing

Consuming

Food System OUTCOMESContributing to: Food Security, Environmental

Security, and other Societal Interests

FoodAccess

FoodUtilisation

FoodAvailability

EnvironCapital

Social Welfare

SocioeconomicDRIVERS

Changes in:Demographics, Economics,

Socio-political context, Cultural context

Science & Technology

DRIVERS’Interactions

GEC DRIVERSChanges in:

Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,

Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling,

Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level

‘Natural’DRIVERS

e.g. VolcanoesSolar cycles

Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGs

Socioeconomic feedbackse.g. livelihoods, social cohesion

Extreme weather, climate, sea level

Regional governance & CSME

Preferential trade

Land use esp. “ridge-to-reef”

GECAFS Prototype Caribbean ScenariosFunded by ICSU / UNESCO / US State Dept

3 main starting issues

~30 people; 2 workshops & writing tasks over 6 months

• Social and natural scientists from regional research institutions (e.g. UWI, CIMH)

• Social and natural scientists from national research institutions (e.g. universities, national labs)

• Policy-makers from regional agencies (e.g. CARICOM, IICA)

• Policy-makers from national agencies (e.g. Min of Ag)

• International agencies (e.g. FAO, UNEP)

• GECAFS scenarios group

GECAFS Prototype Caribbean ScenariosWho was involved?

GECAFS Prototype Caribbean ScenariosBased on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)

Order from Strength

Adapting Mosaic

Global Orchestration

TechnoGarden

Globalization Regionalization

World DevelopmentE

nvi

ron

men

tal

Man

agem

ent

Pro

activ

e

R

eact

ive

Global Caribbean Caribbean Order from Strength

Caribbean TechnoGarden

Caribbean Adapting Mosaic

Temperature Mean

Global: Increase by 1.5 to 2.0 Degree Celsius Caribbean: Increase of 1.0 to 1.5 Degree Celsius

Rainfall Mean / Variability

Global: Increase globally, but diverse spatial patternsCaribbean: Large uncertainty (potential: decrease in average, but increase in intensity)

Hurricanes, Tropical depressions

Global: Increase with increase sea temperature (maybe)Caribbean: Uncertainty (potential: increase in frequency)

Sea level Global: Increase by 25 to 30 cmCaribbean: Increase by 25 to 30 cm -> more storm surges, salt-water intrusion

Main Climate-related DriversSame across the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios

Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

• Population growth & fertility rates• Life expectancy & Age structure• Migration (rural-urban)

• Economic Growth• Equity• Financial flows• Unemployment• Regional Cooperation

• Investments into agri science & technology

• Investments into human capital• Dominant agricultural food policy• Subsidies

• Import / Export Regulations & Focus

• (Relative) Price of food• Transport cost

• Tourism

• Kind of Governance, Political Agendas

• Emergence of new markets (India, China; Green markets)

• US - Cuba Situation

• Security situation

Main Socioeconomic DriversDiffer across the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios

Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

Global Caribbean Caribbean Order from Strength

Caribbean TechnoGarden

Caribbean Adapting Mosaic

Land Use Change

• High land use intensity plus abandoned marginal areas

• Agriculture not for staple food, but niche markets

• New urban areas on ‘good’ agricultural areas

• Some ‘land zoning’

• At first like GC scenario, then shift, leads to mix

• Marginal land to provide basic food needs

• Use of good land for cash-crop areas, follow profits / export

• Specialized agriculture for niche markets

• Land use highly intensive, very productive agriculture

• Proactive land management

• More ‘integrated’ agriculture, more use of current marginal.

• More small-scale, yet intensive, production of niche products

• Current marginal lands will be brought into production

Other GEC DriversConsequently differ across the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios

(example for land use change)

Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

Food Security

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability• Allocation• Preference

• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production• Distribution• Exchange

Analysis of Food Security OutcomesComponents & Elements (reminder)

Food Access

Global Caribbean Caribbean Order from Strength

Caribbean TechnoGarden

Caribbean Adapting Mosaic

Affordability

• Lower food prices• Income increase • Fish price goes up, due to limited availability

• Lower economic growth, less income

• increase in food prices, also of staple food GEC shocks

• Incomes increase• Different national situations as some countries are richer, dampened effect over time

• Moderate increase in wealth outweighed by food price increases

Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES [1]

Developments described per scenario for eachFood Security element (example for Food Access component)

Allocation etc…

Preference etc…

Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

Food Access

Global Caribbean Caribbean Order from Strength

Caribbean TechnoGarden

Caribbean Adapting Mosaic

Affordability + -- + -

• Lower food prices (+)Income increase (+)

• Fish price goes up, due to limited availability (-)

• Lower economic growth, less income (--)

• Increase in food prices, also of staple food (--) GEC shocks (-)

• Incomes increase (+)

• Different national situations as some countries are richer, dampened effect over time (-)

• Moderate increase in wealth outweighed by food price increases (-)

Allocation + - + O

Preference O - + + / -

Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES [2]

Developments systematically assessed per scenario for eachFood Security element (example for Food Access component)

Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES [3]Assessments plotted based on FS concepts

Production

Distribution

Inter-RegionalExchange

Intra-Caribbean Exchange

Affordability

Allocation

Preference

Food SafetyIn

crea

se

Dec

reas

e

NutritionalValue

Social Value

Global Caribbean

Caribbean OrderFrom Strength

CaribbeanTechnoGarden

CaribbeanAdapting Mosaic

per scenario

Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

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+0

_

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• raises awareness of GEC with policy-makers and other stakeholders

• raises awareness of policy issues and process with GEC researchers

• integrates information from different fields to explore possible developments

• systematically structures debate relating to environmental issues and food security

• builds science-policy regional “team” based on shared vision, understanding and trust

• tests downscaling methods

• will be extended to other regions under GEF proposal (in prep)

GECAFS Scenarios Approachkey outcomes