federal department of home affairs fdha federal office of meteorology and climatology meteoswiss

Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz

Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch and their significance yesterday, today and tomorrow

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

Simon C. Scherrer

Climate information team, Climate ServicesFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

Workshop "Spawning the Atmosphere Measurements of Jungfraujoch“26 November 2008, Bern

2 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch [email protected]

The beginning… 1 November 1922

Beginning of meteorological observations 1 November 1922

Wednesday, 1 November 1922

observations for science, weather forecasts and aviation


Yesterday…

measurement site: 1925 – 1937 photo: Fahrni


Since 1937… and today

temperatureTHYGAN north

old ANETZ hut (rot.)

solar radiation,luminosity etc.ASRB, GAW,

CHARM

wind

temperatureTHYGAN south

parameter device

pressure PTB220

radioactivity TechniData

temperature 2 THYGAN + 1 Rotronic

rel. humidity 2 THYGAN + 1 Rotronic

sunshine Solar 111B

luminosity LICOR

SW radiation CM21

LW radiation CG4

wind (speed, direction) METEK

autom. station since 1981official SMN station since 09.10.2007 values every 10‘NOTE: no precipitation

+ man. SYNOP program GAW/CHARM/ASRB

MeteoSwiss SwissMetNet station

SYNOP obs.


MeteoSwiss measurement networks

Jungfraujoch

the highest permanently manned meteorological station in Europe


Today… Climate Change

http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/CR_data/Monthly/Hadplot_globe.gif

Muir Glacier, Alaskaaus Trenberth 2007


From yesterday to today…

Photo: Ruedi Wyss

TM, MétéoSuisse


From yesterday to today…

maximum temperature: homogenization amounts 1937-2006

instrumental problemsin extreme environment

replacement of instrument

hom

ogen

izat

ion

amou

nts

[°C

]

seasonal dependenceof older instruments

site relocation and change of instrument type

1K


Today… homog. mean temperature

trend mean temperature: ~0.4 °C / 10y

mean: -7.9 °C

northern hemisphere land: ~0.3 °C / 10y

devi

atio

n fr

om m

ean

[°C

]1937-2007

(since 1961)

1K


Is the high Alpine region more sensitive to climate change than the rest of Europe?

climate records:mean temperature trends

inter-annual variability

thawing days

The Fauna of the Swiss Alps.


regional distribution of trendsannual mean temperature 1961-2006

Jungfraujoch

filled circles: significant trends (5% level)


vertical distribution of seasonal mean temperature trends 1961-2006

Appenzeller et al. (2008)

Jungfraujoch

grey:averagedtopography

filled circles: significant trends (5% level)



climate records: mean temperature trends

inter-annual variabilitytoday …

thawing days tomorrow



Interannual (year-to-year) variabilityin Swiss Alpine winter climate

Savognin 1990

Davos 1999


The European Winter patterns (dynamics)

leading sea level pressure patterns (60W-40E, 30N-80N), DJF 1958-1999

North Atlantic Oscillation

European European BlockingBlocking

Atlantic Blocking


How well can we explain the winter temperature variability at Jungfraujoch?

NAO

European European BlockingBlocking

Atlantic Blocking

„Mittelland“ Alps

Atlantic Blocking

Säntis


“high fog” on the Swiss plateau

Photo: Ruedi Wyss



climate records: mean temperature trends

inter-annual variability

thawing days tomorrow …



Permafrost in Switzerlandpotential distribution of permafrost based on DHM25 modelling (BAFU 7/06)

legend:

local permafrost possible widespread permafrost likely

source: Federal Office of environment (BAFU)

full thawing days = days with Tmin > 0°C


Annual count of full thawing daysJungfraujoch (1960 - July 2006)

logit-fitted trend: 0.55 d/yr, p-value: 0.02

full

thaw

ing

days

per

yea

r

2003

48


Projected changes in mean temperatureSwitzerland (CH2050 Project)

from C. Frei (2006)change wrt 1990, Median and 95% confidence


Probability for Tmin > 0°C at Jungfraujoch

2050: ~40% (range: 30-60%)today: ~15 %

occurence [%]

altit

ude

[m a

sl]

20 40 60 80 100

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

x3


Summary

Yesterday…• frontier: extreme weather and climate conditions• high altitude observations for weather forecasts and aviation

Today…• highest permanently manned meteorological station in Europe • homog. long time series of high altitude climate for global change issues• Jungfraujoch mean temperature increased by ~0.4 °C / 10y since 1961• mean temperature changes similar to lower Swiss stations• but: large scale influences very different from lowland stations

Tomorrow…• continuation of JUN station

(JUN is part of the new SwissMetNet operated by MeteoSwiss) • expected climate change impacts in Alpine region sensitive to “user group”• simple estimates suggest probability of full thawing days will increase

roughly by a factor 3 in 2050 (from <15% to ~40%)!


Photo: Ruedi Wyss

Thanks for your attention

Appenzeller, C., Zenklusen, E., Begert, M., Scherrer, S.C., 2008: Monitoring climate at Jungfraujoch in the high Swiss Alpine region. Science of the total environment. 391, 262-268. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2007.10.005

federal department of home affairs fdha federal office of meteorology and climatology meteoswiss

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