climate change and aviation decarbonisation and adaptation...enter your presentation title 10 as of...
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Supporting
European
Aviation
Climate Change and Aviation –
Decarbonisation and Adaptation
UC Davis Aviation Noise & Emissions Symposium 2020
Rachel Burbidge
Senior Policy Officer, Environment and Climate Change
3rd March 2020
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Climate change is potentially the most serious environmental threat to
livelihood, welfare and economic development…
Climate Change – What does it mean?
Monday 8 October 2018
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CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION
THE GLOBAL PICTURE (2018)
3
Sources
Global: https://www.iea.org/
Transport/aviation: https://www.iea.org/tc
Note that IATA reports 905Mt for 2018 (https://www.iata.org/publications/economics/Reports/Industry-Econ-Performance/Airline-Industry-Economic-Performance-Jun19-Report.pdf, p4.)
ATM: ATM is estimated to influence approximately 6-12% of aviation emissions
Global CO2 emissions
Othermodes 89%
Aviation11%
CO2 emissions
from transport
CO2 emissions from aviation
and air traffic management
50-110 milliontonnes
Aviation91%
ATM +/-6-10% ?
Transport*
24.3%
Aviation2.8%
Othersectors72.9%
33.4 billiontonnes
930 milliontonnes
8.13 billiontonnes
*Excluding aviation
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Source: ACI WORLD Air Traffic Forecast
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AVIATION’S LONG-TERM ENV PERFORMANCE
METRIC PERFORMANCE
Reduction in CO2 emissions per seat kilometre
since first jets-80%
Reduction in perceived noise since first jets -75%
CO2 emissions avoided since 1990 10 billion tonnes
Fuel burn per 100 passenger km flown (latest
jets)< 3 litres / 100 km
Fuel efficiency improvement 2006-2016 2.1% annual average
5Source: EUROCONTROL https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2019-09/decarbonisation-eurocontrol-think-paper-v4.pdf
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• Are we doing enough?
Source:https://futureearth.
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THE CLIMATE ISSUE
Occupying the Global Media Space
7
Specific advice on aviation and net zero
carbon.
• Increasing
democratisation
• More active and vocal
opposition
• Fuelled by social media
• Public bodies do
respond
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GETTING FROM HERE TO THERE
Aviation’s Basket of Measures
8Source: ATAG
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• First single industry sector global market-based measure in the
field of climate action
• Forecast to mitigate around 2.5 billion tonnes of CO2 between
2021 and 2035
• Started on 1st January 2019 (baseline period)
• Objective: carbon neutral growth from 2020
(Source IATA, ICAO) 9
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CORSIA: A phased approach
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As of 16 July 2019, 81 States, representing 76.63% of international aviation activity, intend to voluntarily
participate in CORSIA from its outset.
(Source ICAO)
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CORSIA: A route-based approach
Source: EUROCONTROL 11
Participating State
Non Participating State
Non Participating State
Participating State
Fuel consumed on ALL international civil aviation flights must be monitored
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Change
the
European
ATM
Network
1 2
Fund
transition to
Sustainable
Aviation
Fuels
3
Develop
highly-
efficient,
large-
capacity,
short-haul
aircrafts
Undertake
a total
fleet
renewal
by 2050
4
Hybridisation
acting as a
bridge to
electrification
of the fleet*
5
DECARBONISATION - FIVE TOP THINGS TO DO
Source: EUROCONTROL https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2019-09/decarbonisation-eurocontrol-think-paper-v4.pdf
*Especially short-haul aircraft
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Impacts OF Climate Change ON aviation
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Climate Change making extreme events more likely…
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Aviation is used to disruptive weather –
but if it’s going to get worse?
We need to adapt and build resiliency
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Key impacts for aviation
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Summary
• Urgent need for all sectors of society to decarbonise – that
includes aviation.
• We need operational, technological, and market-based measures
combined with SAF to reduce the sector’s climate impact.
• We also need to prepare for the impacts of climate change on the
sector: develop adaptation and resiliency.
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Aviation Carbon 2017. CORSIA's MRV Rules. 5 Dec 2017 London 18
Thank You
Rachel BURBIDGE
Senior Policy Officer: Environment and Climate Change
Directorate Pan European Single Sky
EUROCONTROL
96 Rue de la Fusée
1130 Bruxelles (Belgium)
www.eurocontrol.int
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