Climate Change and Agricultureand the ‘Perfect Storm’

Connections to the World Food Crisis

Cynthia Rosenzweig NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and

Columbia Earth Institute

Climate Information for Managing RisksUniversity of Florida IFAS

Southeast Climate ConsortiumJune, 2008

1973-2002 Annual temperature trends

Outline

• Contributing factors to crisis

• Indirect and direct links with climate and climate change

• Warming and extreme events trends and observed effects on agriculture

• Key inflection points in future predictions

• ‘Virtual’ Crop Modeling Project

What is the World Food Crisis? Since 2003, world maize and wheat

prices have nearly doubled.

The price of rice has jumped to unprecedented

levels.

Dairy products, meat, poultry, palm

oil, and cassava, among other agricultural

commodities, have also experienced

price hikes.

Food riots in Egypt and Haiti; 37

countries in critical need of food

von Braun, IFPRI 2008

Food prices closely related to energy prices

Increasing Demand due to Population Growthand Rising Incomes

Subsidies and Trade Restrictions

Non-Climate FactorsMany parts of the developing world continue to face high population growth, and an

increasing number of countries have experienced high economic

growth in recent years.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) in China increased by more than 9% a year between 2005 and

2007. With higher incomes, consumer demand has increased.

Subsidies in developed countries have discouraged investment in

agriculture in developing countries.

Many countries are trying to minimize effects of higher prices on their populations. China has

banned exports of rice and pulses. Argentina has raised

export taxes on soybeans, maize, wheat, and beef.

Von Braun, IFPRI 2008

China Population

www.iiasa.ac.at/.../data/anim/pop_ani.htm

www.keetsa.com

Almost all of the increase in global maize production from 2004 to 2007 went to bio-fuels production (World Bank 2008)

In the United States, as much as one third of the maize crop goes to ethanol production, up from 5 percent a decade ago, and biofuel subsidies range between US$11-13 billion a year.

Increased biofuel demand in 2000-2007 is estimated to have contributed to ~30 percent of the weighted average increase of cereal prices.

Unintended Consequence of Climate Change Mitigation

Indirect Climate Change Effect – Biofuels

Direct Climate Effects

Current: Output has declined in Australia due to a severe drought decoupled from the ENSO cycle.

Is this climate change?New York Times

April 17, 2008SE Australia

Future: Climate change will further threat agricultural production through rising

temperature and more extreme events (Parry et al., 2004)

Change in crop yields with direct CO2 effects

1973-2002 Annual temperature trends

Rising Temperature in Many Agriculture Regions May Also Play a Role

<-1.2C to >1.2CIPCC WGII Chapter 1, 2007

1973-2002 Annual temperature trends

Observed Climate Change 1973-2002 and Documented Changes in Agriculture and Forestry

Phenology

Management practices, pests and diseases

Yields

Livestock

<-1.2C to >1.2CIPCC WGII Chapter 1, 2007

Peng et al. (2004) report that annual mean max. and min. temperatures have increased by 0.35o C and 1.13o C for the period 1979-2003

This is a close linkage between rice grain yield and mean min temperature during the dry cropping season (Jan to April).

Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1o C increase in growing-season min temp in the dry season. The effect of maximum temp on crop yield was insignificant.

Rice and the Philippines

Crop Yield

Over the last 50 years:• Very likely

– less frequent cold days, cold nights, and frosts– more frequent hot days and hot nights

• Likely – more frequent heat waves– more frequent heavy precipitation events– increased incidence of extreme high sea level– increased drought in some regions

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Observed Changes in Extremes

Extreme Events

>99%

90-99%

90-99%

66-90%

66-90%

66-90%

Extreme Events

Risk Management ApproachCoping Ranges and Thresholds

Ayers et al. 2005

Current

Seasonal climate forecasts, improved water management, Integrated Pest Management and warning systems, crop and livestock insurance programs . . .

“Worries Mount as Farmers Push for Big Harvest”

“Wet and Dry Extremes” Lead Story NYT, June 10, 2008

Risk of Current Climate Extremes is an Pathway to Climate Change

Characterization of Long-term Risk is also Important for World Food System and

Global Agreements

Focus on Extreme events

Regional StakeholdersShort-term Decisions

Adaptation

Focus on Mean and extreme changes

National PolicymakersLong-term Decisions

Adaptation & Mitigation

Seasonal-to-interannuale.g., ENSO

Decadal-to-century

Real Cereal Prices (% baseline) vs Temperature

(interpolated from point estimates)

Prices fall or hold steady until+1-3°C

IPCC, 2007

Predicted

Real Cereal Prices (% baseline) vs Temperature

(interpolated from point estimates)

Prices fall or hold steady until+1-3°C

IPCC, 2007

Predicted Observed

80

90

100

110

120

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

WORLD

Effects are Negative in Long Term Percent Change in Food Production Potential

PRODUCTION potential with low crop response to CO2PRODUCTION potential with high crop response to CO2AREA EXTENT with low crop response to CO2AREA EXTENT with high crop response to CO2

0-10 = Severity of climate change (~time)

80

90

100

110

120

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

WORLD

Effects are Negative in Long Term Percent Change in Food Production Potential

PRODUCTION potential with low crop response to CO2PRODUCTION potential with high crop response to CO2AREA EXTENT with low crop response to CO2AREA EXTENT with high crop response to CO2

0-10 = Severity of climate change (~time)

Level of CO2

Response?

80

90

100

110

120

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

WORLD

Effects are Negative in Long Term Percent Change in Food Production Potential

PRODUCTION potential with low crop response to CO2PRODUCTION potential with high crop response to CO2AREA EXTENT with low crop response to CO2AREA EXTENT with high crop response to CO2

0-10 = Severity of climate change (~time)

Inflection Points?

Virtual Crop Modeling Project for IPCC AR5*

*Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report

Goal: Improve characterization of long-term climate risk for agriculture at both regional and global scales by an order of magnitude for use by policymakers and integrated assessment modelers.

• Multiple crop and world food trade models

• Multiple climate scenarios – 18 PCMDI GCMs

• Multiple emissions scenarios – SRES; new scenario process underway

• Multiple assumptions about prices

• Improved CO2 formulations

• Links with water resources

• More complete adaptation

VCM Process

• Model-based probabilities of regional yield effects

• Improved characterization of key global production inflection points

• More complete crop and geographical coverage

• Potentials and limits of adaptation strategies

• Crop model intercomparison and development

VCM Products and Outcomes

• Steering group from crop modeling groups around the world

• New web-based ‘Green Book’ providing scenarios, protocols, and reporting formats

• Clearing house to gather and present results

Climate - World Food Crisis Connections

• The world food crisis may be the harbinger of how climate change effects will be realized in agriculture, i.e., as one of multiple stresses (aka ‘the perfect storm’) that come together to cause significant widespread problems.

• Rapid adoption of mitigation programs may bring unintended consequences. We must do better!

• Stationarity is dead. Warming trends and trends in extremes are the new ‘normal.’

• Increasing production this year is critical: helping ag sector/farmers to use climate information more effectivelyis an urgent challenge right now.

• We still need to improve projections of long-term risks.