Climate Changean Overview

Frank McGovernClimate Change Unit,

Environmental Protection Agency

30th September 2008

1. Roles of the EPA in climate change

2. A brief history of understanding human impactson climate

3. Responses, structures and processes

4. Current science and implications

5. Next steps: & Conclusions

Contents

• National GHG emission inventories and projections• Implementation of aspects of the Kyoto Protocol e.g.

Emissions trading• Research on climate change

– GHG emissions/sinks– Impacts and adaptation– Socio-economic analyses and technologies– Observation systems

• Engagement with EU and UN bodies

1. Roles of the EPA

A long history that effectively starts in …..• Carlow: with John Tyndall, 1850s• Sweden: Arrhous, estimate of doubling atmospheric CO2 levels

on global average temperature (climate sensitivity), 1860s• Hawaii: Keeling starts monitoring CO2 measurements, 1958• First World Climate Conference call for action by Governments• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1988

– Key body to provide authorative assessment of state of knowledge onclimate change

• First IPCC Assessment Report published in 1991

2 A brief history

IPCC report considered at Earth Summit Rio de Janeiro 1991UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992

Objective• “To stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level

that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference withthe climate system”.

• Time-frame:– Allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change,– Ensure that food production is not threatened

2 A brief history

3 Response structures and processes

UN-Framework Convention Climate Change (UNFCCC)Conference of Parties (COP)

Subsidiary Body forSc ientific Technical and Soc io

Economic Advice (SBSTA)

Subsidiary Body forImplementation (SBI)

IntergovernmentalPanel on

Climate Change(IPCC)

Reports

Annual meeting Ministers,Decision making PLENARY

CONTACT GROUPEU COORDINATION

EU EXPERT GROUP

3 Responses, structures and processes

3. Responses, structures and processes

• IPCC Second Assessment Report 1995• EU adopts 2oC climate protection target

– i.e. “dangerous” climate change is avoided if globaltemerature does not increase by more than 2oCabove pre-industrial levels

– Linked to CO2 stabisation level of about 500ppm• First COP in Berlin: Berlin Mandate the basis for

Kyoto Protocol to UNFCCC

3. Responses, structures and processes

IPCC Third assessment Report (TAR) 2001• Strengthened findings of previous reportHowever,• Focus on scientific uncertainty• Sustained attacks on Kyoto ProtocolOutcomes• Kyoto Protocol enters into legal force• Work on adaptation advanced

• IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Published 2007– Lessons learned from TAR

• AR4 Synthese report finalised in November for presentionto UNFCCC in Bali -key science in place

• IPCC awarded Nobel PeacePrize along with Al Gore

• UNFCCC ready to decide on next steps

4. Current science and implications

Figure SPM.3

•Warming unequivocal: 0.74°C over the last100 years

•Sea level rising:mainly due to thermalexpansion

•Snow and ice cover isreducing

4. Current science and implications

4. Current science and implications

4. Current science and implications

Mauna Loa data

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360

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380

1958 1963 1968 1974 1979 1985 1990 1996 2001

Car

bon

diox

ide

(ppm

)

Evidence of human impacts in CO2 records

4. Current science and implications

Future climate conditions

Based on developmentscenarios (SRES)

A family of four followingdifferent developmentpathways

4. Current science and implications

Total Global annual CO2emissions 1990 to 2100 (GtC/yr). FortySRES scenarios are presented by the four families (A1, A2, B1,and B2) and six scenario groups:

Science and ActionFuture temperature increases from AR4

4. Current science and implications

4. Current science and implicationsEU Position: Dangerous climate change avoided if global temperatureincrease is less than 2oC above pre-industrial levels,• implies significant and immediate GHG emissions reductions

Recent findings and developments

Where are we now?

5 Next steps: global to regional to local

• UNFCCC Bali action plan in Place: with 2 year timetable

• Next COP meetings: Poznan, 2009 & Copenhagen, 2010

• EU position established based on 2C target- unilaterial 20% reduction by 2020 and- upto 30% in context of international agreement- Supported by a number of countries e.g. Norway

• SIDS consider 2C too much

• US engagment with UNFCCC is likley to change

• Participation by major developing economies is needed

6 Conclusions• The challenge is immense and unprecedented

• The window of opportunity is narrow and closing rapidly

• The EU has provided leadership but global participation isneeded

• There is a need to mainstream climate change issues into allsectoral and national planning: this includes actions

• to reduce and eliminate GHG emissions:

(Carbon aware design is critical factor in this)

• to adapt to unavoidable impacts of climate change

• The private sector and institutions need to act

EPA climate lecture21st Oct. 2008

Mansion House, DublinNew analysis of glaciers and ice

cover

Thank you

• Meetings start 7:30 and run till very late…

• Remarkable and dramatic meeting