Climate Change 101Climate Change 101

Climate Change 101Climate Change 101

Dr. LuAnne ThompsonDr. LuAnne ThompsonAssociate Professor, School of OceanographyAssociate Professor, School of Oceanography

Board member of Program on Climate Change, Board member of Program on Climate Change, UWUW

Dr. LuAnne ThompsonDr. LuAnne ThompsonAssociate Professor, School of OceanographyAssociate Professor, School of Oceanography

Board member of Program on Climate Change, Board member of Program on Climate Change, UWUW

OutlineOutline

The science of climate change: the IPCCThe science of climate change: the IPCC The impacts climate change: global and The impacts climate change: global and

regionalregional Solutions: from personal to globalSolutions: from personal to global

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Program

Summary for Policy Makers for Fourth Assessment Release February 7, 2007

www.ipcc.ch

Source: OSTP

IPCC 2007IPCC 2007IPCC 2007IPCC 2007

Main Findings of IPCCMain Findings of IPCC

Warming of Warming of the climate the climate system is system is unequivocal- unequivocal- changes seen changes seen in global in global average average temperature, temperature, melting of melting of snow and ice, snow and ice, rising sea rising sea level.level.

Clear Clear correlation correlation between CObetween CO22 and and

temperaturetemperature

Current level of Current level of COCO22 is is outsideoutside

bounds of natural bounds of natural variabilityvariability

RateRate of change of change of COof CO22 is also is also

unprecedentedunprecedented

Source: OSTP

COCO22 and temperature, 1000 AD to present and temperature, 1000 AD to present

Source: IPCC 2001

Source: OSTP

IPCC

Observed vs. modeled temperature rise Observed vs. modeled temperature rise since 1860since 1860

Main Findings of IPCCMain Findings of IPCC

Most of the Most of the warming in warming in globally globally averaged averaged temperature temperature is very likely is very likely due to the due to the observed observed increase to increase to anthropogenianthropogenic green c green house gases.house gases.

Between 1900 and 2000, the earth has warmed by 1F.Global average temperature projected to increase 2-11.5°F by 2100. Half of uncertainty is climate sensitivity; half is GHG input (policy, tech)

Between 1900 and 2000, the earth has warmed by 1F.Global average temperature projected to increase 2-11.5°F by 2100. Half of uncertainty is climate sensitivity; half is GHG input (policy, tech)

Main Findings of IPCCMain Findings of IPCC

“How far can it go? The last time the world was three degrees warmer than today – which is what we expect later this century – sea levels were 25m higher. So that is what we can look forward to if we don't act soon…I think sea-level rise is going to be the big issue soon, more even than warming itself…

How long have we got?How long have we got? We have to stabilize emissions of carbon dioxide We have to stabilize emissions of carbon dioxide within a decade, or temperatures will warm by more than one degree. within a decade, or temperatures will warm by more than one degree. That will be warmer than it has been for half a million years, and many That will be warmer than it has been for half a million years, and many things could become unstoppable.…We don't have much time left.”things could become unstoppable.…We don't have much time left.”

Dr. James HansenDr. James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies., Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

– – The IndependentThe Independent 2/ 17/2006 2/ 17/2006

Projected Changes in Annual Temperatures for the 2050sProjected Changes in Annual Temperatures for the 2050s

The projected change is compared to the present day with a ~1% increase per year in equivalent COThe projected change is compared to the present day with a ~1% increase per year in equivalent CO 22

Source: The Met Office. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research

Physical signal: observed changes in ice and snow coverPhysical signal: observed changes in ice and snow cover

Duration ofDuration of ice cover on rivers ice cover on rivers and lakes has decreasedand lakes has decreased by 2.5 by 2.5 weeks over the last century weeks over the last century in mid- & high latitude areasin mid- & high latitude areas

Arctic sea ice lossArctic sea ice loss in area (10 - in area (10 - 15%) and thickness (40%) 15%) and thickness (40%) over the last half century.over the last half century.

Decline in snow coverDecline in snow cover (10%) (10%) for N hemisphere since 1960for N hemisphere since 1960

World-wide retreat in alpine World-wide retreat in alpine glaciersglaciers over last century over last century

Widespread changes in Widespread changes in permafrostpermafrost

IPCC

South Cascade Glacier, South Cascade Glacier, 1928 and 2000 1928 and 2000 South Cascade Glacier, South Cascade Glacier, 1928 and 2000 1928 and 2000

Sea-Level RiseSea-Level Rise Ocean Shores, WA

Thermal expansion and glacier/icecap meltingThermal expansion and glacier/icecap melting

4 to 8 inches over the last century4 to 8 inches over the last century

IPCC projects 7 to 23 inches this centuryIPCC projects 7 to 23 inches this century

Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates low-Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates low-lying areaslying areas

Thermal expansion and glacier/icecap meltingThermal expansion and glacier/icecap melting

4 to 8 inches over the last century4 to 8 inches over the last century

IPCC projects 7 to 23 inches this centuryIPCC projects 7 to 23 inches this century

Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates low-Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates low-lying areaslying areas

Effects of global warming on water cycleEffects of global warming on water cycle

Global warmingGlobal warming Speeds up globalSpeeds up globalwater cyclewater cycle

More extreme More extreme weather eventsweather events

““Hurricanes are essentially heat Hurricanes are essentially heat engines, forming over warm ocean engines, forming over warm ocean waters and gaining strength from waters and gaining strength from the latent heat …. This released heat the latent heat …. This released heat drives rapid updrafts that cause drives rapid updrafts that cause more water to evaporate from the more water to evaporate from the ocean surface and form a self-ocean surface and form a self-reinforcing vortex of swirling clouds reinforcing vortex of swirling clouds generating wind speeds, as in generating wind speeds, as in Hurricane Ivan's case, of up to 160 Hurricane Ivan's case, of up to 160 miles per hour.”miles per hour.”

““Hurricanes are essentially heat Hurricanes are essentially heat engines, forming over warm ocean engines, forming over warm ocean waters and gaining strength from waters and gaining strength from the latent heat …. This released heat the latent heat …. This released heat drives rapid updrafts that cause drives rapid updrafts that cause more water to evaporate from the more water to evaporate from the ocean surface and form a self-ocean surface and form a self-reinforcing vortex of swirling clouds reinforcing vortex of swirling clouds generating wind speeds, as in generating wind speeds, as in Hurricane Ivan's case, of up to 160 Hurricane Ivan's case, of up to 160 miles per hour.”miles per hour.”

9/19 Washington Post:9/19 Washington Post:““Warning in the Winds”Warning in the Winds”9/19 Washington Post:9/19 Washington Post:““Warning in the Winds”Warning in the Winds”

PNW trends, expected impacts

Source for PNW impacts:Source for PNW impacts:UW Climate Impacts GroupUW Climate Impacts Grouphttp://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/

Source for PNW impacts:Source for PNW impacts:UW Climate Impacts GroupUW Climate Impacts Grouphttp://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/

Average Northwest warming, 2000-2100Average Northwest warming, 2000-2100

Source: Mote, Salathé and Peacock 2005

Effect on modeled Snake River streamflowEffect on modeled Snake River streamflow

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

O N D J F M A M J J A S

Flo

w (

cfs

)

base

comp 2020

comp 2040

Source: Mote ca. 2005

increased winter flows

an earlier peak

decreased spring/summer flows

For areas that accumulate snowpack, areas close to freezing in mid-winter are For areas that accumulate snowpack, areas close to freezing in mid-winter are most sensitive to warmingmost sensitive to warming

+4°F,+4.5% winter precip

~2050s

Effect on Snoqualmie Pass ski industryEffect on Snoqualmie Pass ski industry

Source: Mote ca. 2005

days

of o

pera

tion

per y

ear

current climate 2040’s

(two different models)2020’s

(two different models)

24 cm snow threshold

50 cm

80 cm

COCO22 Emissions and Concentrations: Emissions and Concentrations: The environment responds to The environment responds to concentrations; concentrations; aggressive emission reduction needs to begin quicklyaggressive emission reduction needs to begin quickly

IPCC

Stabilization wedge optionsStabilization wedge options

PCC slide no. 062 adapted from: Pacala & Socolow 2004

GHG emissions induced by a U.S. householdGHG emissions induced by a U.S. household

Source: Union of Concerned Scientists 1999

other3%medical

6%

housing6%

personal items and services

6%

food12%

household operations

35%

transportation32%

Why a Northwesterner needs to think differentlyWhy a Northwesterner needs to think differently

Source: U.S. EPA 2005; Washington State 2004

buildings (residential)

6%buildings (commercial)

7%

agriculture7%

industry19%

electric generation

34%

transportation27%

transportation46%

electric generation

15%

industry25%

agriculture5%

buildings9%

U.S. GHGs Washington GHGs

Two venues for actionTwo venues for action

Source: Hammerschlag ca. 2005

• Vote

• Financially support concerned organizations- Climate Solutions- Northwest Energy Coalition

• Volunteer for concerned organizations- Door-to-door education- Legislative lobbying

POLICY REFORM

• Drive less- Carpool or use transit- Walk or bicycle- Combine errands- Telecommute

• Drive a fuel-efficient car

• Recycle

• Reduce home energy use- CFLs- Energy Star appliances- Heat room-by-room- Minimize summer A/C

• Purchase GHG offsets

PERSONAL GHG CUTS

City of SeattleCity of Seattle As of March 11, 2007, 418 US cities in 50 states, representing more than 60 million Americans support Kyoto after Mayor Greg Nickels of Seattle started a nationwide effort to get cities to agree to the protocol.

County, UW, BusinessesCounty, UW, Businesses

Seattle Climate Partnership (REI, UW, Seattle Climate Partnership (REI, UW, Starbucks, etc.). Voluntary pact Starbucks, etc.). Voluntary pact among Seattle Area Employers to take among Seattle Area Employers to take action to reduce their own emissions. action to reduce their own emissions.

Sims Global Warming initiativeSims Global Warming initiativeCommitment to reduce King County Commitment to reduce King County EmissionsEmissionsDevelopment of adaptation strategiesDevelopment of adaptation strategies

The UW has joined a national effort -- the American College & University Presidents Climate Commitment -- to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and become carbon-neutral.

StateState

February 26, 2007: Five Western governors agreed to cut their states' emissions

Will establish a regional carbon-trading system allowing polluters to buy and sell greenhouse gas pollution credits.

Solutions: UN Framework Convention on Climate ChangeSolutions: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Foundation of international efforts to Foundation of international efforts to combat global warming combat global warming

Objective: “stabilize GHG concentrations Objective: “stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent prevent dangerousdangerous human interference human interference with the climate system”with the climate system”

Kyoto protocol sets binding limits: Kyoto protocol sets binding limits: Ratified by over 100 nations; emission Ratified by over 100 nations; emission trading and markets are evolving rapidlytrading and markets are evolving rapidly

Emission Reduction Profile Emission Reduction Profile to achieve 450 PPMto achieve 450 PPM

Tony Blair and Great BritainTony Blair and Great Britain

Proposed bill, Britain will cut carbon emission by 60% cut by 2050, and introduce legally-binding carbon "budgets"

Interim target of a 26% to 32% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2020.