climate basics
DESCRIPTION
Introduction to climate science basics and climate projections for New York State as presented to Marist summer institute class in July, 2013.TRANSCRIPT
Climate Basics
Marist College Summer Institute
Libby Murphy
Hudson River Estuary Program/Cornell WRI
NYS Department of Environmental Conservation
Outline• The Hudson River Estuary Program
• My background
• Basics of climate science
• Climate change in New York
• Climate mitigation
• Climate adaptation
• Field trip!
Hudson River Estuary Program
Core Mission
• Ensure clean water
• Protect and restore fish, wildlife, and their
habitats
• Provide water recreation and river access
• Adapt to climate change
• Conserve world-famous scenery
How I got here
• Hudson Valley native
• M.S. Climate Science and Policy, Bard College (2014)
• M.B.A. in Sustainability, Bard College (2014)
• B.A., Geology, Vassar College (2008)
• Compton Mentor Fellow
• Theodore Gordon Flyfisher Scholar
• Adolph Sutro Fellow
• Work in climate outreach, renewable energy start ups
Basics of climate science
What is climate?
“You dress for the weather and build a house for the climate”
“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get”
The Earth’s Climate System
• Made up of 5 “spheres”
How do we know?
• Greenland ice cores, detailed 800K year record of CO2
• Instrumental record since 1850
Carbon Cycle Basics
NASA
Difference between a planet with and one without a carbon cycle
Rock reservoir 50 x 106 Gt*
Limestone 40 x 106
Organic carbon in sedimentary rocks 10 x 106
Fossil fuels 4.7 x 103
(coal = 4.0 x 103)
Marine carbonate sediments 2.5 x 103
World ocean 40 x 103
Dissolved inorganic carbon 39 x 103
Dissolved organic carbon 0.66 x 103
Organic carbon in soils and terrestrial sediments 1.6 x 103
Organic carbon in permafrost 0.9 x 103
Atmospheric CO2 0.73 x 103
Living biomass 0.66 x 103
*Gt = gigatons = 109 metric tons
Sizes of the
carbon
reservoirs
Sources: Kump et al., 2004; Zimov et al., 2006; others
long-term
short-term
The long- and short-term carbon cycles
ocean
40,000 Gt C
118 Gt C/yr
121 Gt C/yr
101 Gt C/yr
97 Gt C/yr
living things
660 Gt C
soils/sediments
1600 Gt C
permafrost
900 Gt C
atmosphere
730 Gt C
Short-term carbon cycle
The surface reservoirs
Enter industrial revolution
ocean
40,000 Gt C
118 Gt C/yr
121 Gt C/yr
101 Gt C/yr
97 Gt C/yr
living things
660 Gt C
soils/sediments
1600 Gt C
permafrost
900 Gt C
atmosphere
730 Gt C
fossil fuels
4700 Gt C
sedimentary rocks
50 million Gt C
8.0 Gt C/yr
Long-term cycle
deep reservoirsThe surface reservoirs
one-way flow from long- to short-term reservoirs
The Keeling curve
Mauna Loa record
Keeling’s Curve
The Greenhouse Effect
A time of rapid Climate Change?
We choose our future
For more info
Climate change in New York
Changes to our climate
Increasing temperatures
•Rising sea level
•Changing precipitation patterns
Increasing temperatures
Since 1970:
•Global annual average temp. up nearly 1°F
•US annual average temp. up 1.8°F
•New York annual average temp. up nearly 2°F
•New York winter temperatures up almost 5°F
y = 0.026x - 1.346R² = 0.374
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
An
nu
al M
ean
Te
mp
era
ture
(F)
Year
Annual mean temperature in Poughkeepsie has been increasing
Increasing temperatures
Future around Marist:
Sea level riseHistoric:
• 15” in NY Harbor in the past 150 years
Changing precipitation patterns
• 74% Increase in heavy downpours between 1950-1979 and 1980-2009
• More variability and volatility
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
651
89
5
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
An
nu
al P
reci
pit
atio
n (
inch
es)
Year
Annual rainfall in Poughkeepsie has become more variable
So how will this affect us?
Heat waves
Short-term drought
Flooding
Heat waves
Short-term drought
• Higher temperatures, increased evaporation
• Reduction in steady rain and snow precipitation
Flooding
• Intense precipitation
• Sea-level rise
• Intense storms
What is the “100-year” flood?
• FEMA, FIRMs
• 1% probability = 100 yr
• 10% = 10 year
• Over 30 years there is a 30% chance of a 100-yr flood
Sea Level Rise Mapper by Scenic Hudson
http://www.scenichudson.org/slr/mapper
Climate mitigation
What is climate mitigation?
• Mitigation = reduce the severity of an issue/problem
• Climate mitigation = reduce the severity of climate change
• Reducing the causes of climate change
• Some definitions: efficient, renewable, low-impact, carbon-neutral, green buildings
How?
• Energy/heat, transportation, buildings
• Renewable energy, efficient transportation, green buildings
Climate adaptation
What is climate adaptation?
• Adaptation= to adapt to new conditions
• Climate adaptation= to adapt to the impacts of climate change
• Reducing the impacts of climate change
• Some definitions: resilience, accommodate, fortify, retreat
Resilience
Flooding adaptation
Current situation
Flooding Adaptation Strategies•Fortify
•Accommodate
•Strategically Relocate
Fortify
Levee, New Orleans, LA Seawall, Beacon, NY
Elevated structures with flood
gates, Hamburg, Germany
Accommodate
Floodable park concept, NYC
Steelhouse restaurant, Kingston, NY
Local example of accommodation
Strategic Relocation
Natural shoreline with gazebo, Cold
SpringWetland with walkway
concept, Toronto, Canada
Simulations
Kingston waterfront low tide
E Strand in Kingston
Kingston waterfrontSimulation: elevated sea level (4’) at low tide
4’ of Sea Level Rise
Kingston waterfront Simulation: elevated sea level (low tide), armored protection
Example of Fortify
Kingston waterfront Simulation: elevated sea level (low tide), vegetated revetment, floodproofed buildings
Example of Accommodate
Kingston waterfront Simulation: elevated sea level (low tide), strategic retreat
Example of Strategic Relocation