Climate Change Basics: Issues and Impacts for Climate Change Basics: Issues and Impacts for BoatingBoating

National Association of State Boating Law Administrators

September 10, 2008

David F. Zierden

Florida State Climatologist

Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies

The Florida State University

What is a State Climatologist?What is a State Climatologist?

• Originally a NOAA program until 1973

• States urged to appoint their own SC

• Most states made it a faculty appointment at the land grant university

• Title transferred to FSU after a number of years

• Appointed by the department Chair

• MOU with partners at NOAA NWS and NCDC

• Office certified by the American Association of State Climatologists

Enjoying BoatingEnjoying Boating

IntroductionIntroduction

““Climate Change” versus “Global Warming”Climate Change” versus “Global Warming”

Climate change is ongoing and has many causes, both natural and man-made.

Natural causes:• Changes in solar intensity• Eccentricity in the earth’s orbit and “wobbles”• Vegetation, albedo changes• Volcanic eruptions• Coupled ocean/atmospheric cycles Man-made causes:• Urbanization• Land use changes (irrigation of semi-arid areas,

draining wetlands)• Aerosols• Greenhouse gases “Global warming” specifically refers to a general

warming of the planet due the anthropogenic increase in greenhouses gases.

Unfortunately, “climate change” is now misconstrued as the same as “global warming.”

Climate change is a contentious issue…

Pro - Global Warmin

• Charlie Christ (FL), Ted Kulongoski (OR)

• Environmental groups

• Hollywood

• Liberal media

Scientists• IPCC• Dr. James Hansen (NASA)

• Dr. Kevin Trenberth (NCAR)

• Dr. Tom Karl (NCDC)

Perceived Skeptics:• Rush Limbaugh• George Bush• Big oil, big industry• Conservative media

Scientists• Dr. William Gray (CSU)• Dr. John Christy (UAH)• Dr. Chris Landsea (NHC)• Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr. (UC)• Dr. James O’Brien (COAPS)

IPCC 4 ConclusionsIPCC 4 Conclusions

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.”

“Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.”

“Most of the observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.”

- IPCC 4 Summary for Policy Makers

Criticisms:

• politicized process

• improper review

• understates the importance of other natural and man-made forcings

• inadequate communication of uncertainties

Florida Climate Center on Climate ChangeFlorida Climate Center on Climate Change

O’Brien

Zierden

Growing interest in climate change issues:

• IPCC 4 and Al Gore

• New administration in Florida

• Changing markets - biofuels and ethanol production

• Carbon credits and markets

• Sustainability

New Emphasis on Climate Change

“Governor Crist is passionate about government leading by example… The three Executive Orders represent the Governor’s commitment to addressing global climate change.”

Natural Causes of Climate Natural Causes of Climate ChangeChange

Milankovitch CyclesMilankovitch Cycles

Changes in the eccentricity of the earth’s orbit, obliquity, and precession of the equinoxes are the main triggers to the 100,000 year ice age cycles.

Sunspot CyclesSunspot Cycles

The number of sunspots varies on an 11-year cycle. High numbers of sunspots correspond to increased solar irradiance and solar winds.

Coupled air-sea interactionsCoupled air-sea interactions

The El Nino/La Nina cycle is the predominant mode of year to year climate variability. Other modes include:

• Pacific decadal oscillation

• North Atlantic oscillation

• Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Greenhouse Gas ConcentrationsGreenhouse Gas Concentrations

The “Greenhouse” EffectThe “Greenhouse” Effect

Atmospheric Composition and radiative Atmospheric Composition and radiative AbsorptionAbsorption

Historical Greenhouse Gas ConcentrationsHistorical Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

Global and Regional TemperatureGlobal and Regional Temperature

Reconstructed Temperature RecordsReconstructed Temperature Records

“the Holocene, which has already lasted 11,000 years, is, by far, the longest stable warm period recorded in Antarctica during the past 420,000 years,”

- Petit, et. al., 1999

Modern Day TemperaturesModern Day Temperatures

Southeast Temperature TrendsSoutheast Temperature Trends

Annual Average TemperatureAL, FL, GA and all three

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

°F

Ann GAAnn ALAnn FL3-State Avg

Rural Weather StationRural Weather Station

Town is located to the northeast of Eglin AFB, a large expanse of undeveloped forests.

Surrounding countryside consists of pastures, farmland, and pine forests.

Station located at Showel Farms, 3 miles to the east of the city.

Walton County population is very low at around 40,000.

USHCN station (unadjusted data)

Rural Weather StationRural Weather Station

Small TownSmall Town

Small Town surrounded by pastures, citrus groves, pine stands, and lowlands.

Station located at the water treatment plant inside the city limits.

Arcadia has grown very little in the last 40 years and only has a population of around 10,000.

USHCN station (unadjusted data)

UrbanizationUrbanization

Global and Regional PrecipitationGlobal and Regional Precipitation

Global Precipitation TrendsGlobal Precipitation Trends

Southeast Precipitation TrendsSoutheast Precipitation Trends

Annual Rainfall 1895-2006

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Inch

es

Ann AL

Ann FL

Ann GA

3-State Avg

Other Possible Outcomes with RainfallOther Possible Outcomes with Rainfall

• Rainfall has become more extreme (larger events) in the last 50 years (Karl, et al.)

• As temperatures warm, warm air holds more moisture and rainfall should increase.

• We don’t know exactly when, where, how much this increase will be.

• Warmer climate may also lead to more extreme rainfall and extended droughts.

• How a changing climate will effect lakes, rivers, coastal areas is highly uncertain.

Climate Change and HurricanesClimate Change and Hurricanes

Hurricanes and Global Warming?Hurricanes and Global Warming?

Emanuel (Nature, 2005) – Hurricane power has increased in recent decades due warmer sea surface temperatures part to global warming

Webster, et al. (Science, 2005) –

The number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes have doubled in the last 30 years, due to global warming.

Atlantic HurricanesAtlantic Hurricanes

“Over the long term the effects of changes in society dwarf the effects of any projected changes in tropical cyclones…”

“…claims of linkages between global warming and hurricane impacts are premature…”

- Pielke, et. al., 2005

“Thus large, long-term ‘trends’ in tropical cyclone frequency are primarily manifestations of increased monitoring capabilities and likely not related to any real change in the climate in which they develop.”

- Landsea, 2007

Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise

What if sea level rose 6 meters?What if sea level rose 6 meters?

Image courtesy of Environmental Studies Laboratory, University of Arizona

Causes of Sea Level RiseCauses of Sea Level Rise

Global sea level can rise from two primary causes:

2) Warming of the oceans

3) Melting of ice caps and glaciers

Historic sea level riseHistoric sea level rise

• Sea level measurements from 23 highest quality tidal stations around the world.

• Estimates of sea level rise from 1 mm/yr to 2 mm/yr.

• Satellite measurements (altimeters) since 1992 indicate a rise of around 3mm/yr.

• IPCC third assessment report stated "No significant acceleration in the rate of sea level rise during the 20th century has been detected."

Local sea level measurementsLocal sea level measurements

Pensacola2.14 mm/yr

Key West

2.27 mm/yr

Tropical/Mid-latitude GlaciersTropical/Mid-latitude Glaciers

Arctic Sea IceArctic Sea Ice

"The winds causing this trend in ice reduction were set up by an unusual pattern of atmospheric pressure that began at the beginning of this century,”

- NASA Scientis

Figure 4.19Figure 4.19

Climate Change and Climate Change and EcosystemsEcosystems

COCO22 Causes Acidification Causes Acidification

Increased atmospheric CO2 increased oceanic pCO2 lower pH

Measured or calculatedpCO2 & pH at:

ESTOC = European Station for Time-series in the Ocean

HOT = Hawaii Ocean Time-seriesBATS = Bermuda Atlantic

Time-series Study

Fi gur e 5. 9

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Acidification Alters CalcificationAcidification Alters Calcification

Mean calcification rate predicted to decrease up to 30% relative to 1990(3 IPCC scenarios)

Gattuso, et al. 1999. American Zoologist 39: 160–183

Increased Increased Temperature CausesTemperature CausesCoral BleachingCoral Bleaching

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Sea Level Rise Alters WetlandsSea Level Rise Alters Wetlands

NDVI = normalized difference vegetation indexRaabe & Stumpf. 1996. USGS Open-file Report 96-35

An Uncertain FutureAn Uncertain Future

Uncertain FutureUncertain Future

Limitations of Climate Models

•The physics of water vapor, clouds, and precipitation are poorly represented.

• Limited spatial resolution

• Climate models have not demonstrated the ability to reproduce the modes of variability seen in the 20th century.

• Cannot accurately predict regional shifts in temperature or precipitation.

• Coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean, land surface, and ice surfaces is limited.

Global Warming “Myths”Global Warming “Myths”

“Throw out the record books, because global warming is raising temperatures in Florida and across the country,”

- Environment Florida

"In low-lying areas, anticipated sea-level rise could force water to flow horizontally as much as 400 feet or more inland--flooding shoreline homes and hotels and eroding Florida's famous beaches,"

- NRDC

“The Union of Concerned Scientists predicts a three- to 10-degree Fahrenheit rise in winter low and summer high temperatures for Florida as a whole. Northern Florida, the group says, will suffer the most from loss of soil moisture.”

What do we do?What do we do?

• Prevention

• Adaptation/mitigation

• Ignore