Click to edit Master title styleAdaption Tools for a Developed

Agricultural Economy

Judy Lawrence

Director, New Zealand Climate Change Office

Ministry for the Environment

Click to edit Master title styleAgriculture in New Zealand

• Pastoral agriculture is a major contributor to GDP (10% GDP including food processing and manufacture)

• 44% of NZs land area is in grazing pastoral agriculture

• Highly export-dependent country (64% of total NZ exports)

• Climate spans subtropical to cool temperate, and high rainfall to semi-arid

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Click to edit Master title styleAdaptation – Overview of Options• Enhancing beneficial effects of climate change:

Extension of growing season Wider range of products / market timing

• Managing gradual change: Adaptive breeding of cultivars On-going disease / biosecurity management Diversification; sustainable land-use strategies

• Managing extreme events: Droughts: water harvesting/storage; forecasting Floods: land-use planning; warning systems

Click to edit Master title styleAssessment Tools

Top-down assessments:• Future climate patterns – down-scaling of GCMs• Development of national impact assesment tools

(CLIMPACTS)• Climate extremes - drought and flood risk and mitigation

- Preliminary economic assessments• Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) Research• Regulatory approaches – local government planning

and strategies Bottom-up assessments:• Specific topic and regional studies• Cost of specific events – floods and droughts• Bottom-up studies at local scale involving farmers

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GCM Downscaling Impacts on NZ Agriculture

• New Zealand expected to warm less rapidly than global average due to oceanic influence

• Expected shift in rainfall patterns towards drier conditions in east, wetter in west

• Increased risk of extremes: flooding (most places) and drought risk (eastern regions)

• Biological effects of extension of growing season, change in species composition / disease / biosecurity, carbon fertilisation

• Reductions in cold hardening in some crops

Click to edit Master title styleCLIMPACTS - Impacts

Assessment Tool

Click to edit Master title styleImpacts assessment – example kiwifruit

1990 2100

Click to edit Master title styleClimate Extremes – Drought Risk Assessment

• Drought is an important cause of variation in NZ’s GDP. Economic studies show impacts.

• Work programmes aim to quantify likely changes in drought risk, severity and return frequency

• Adapting now has important co-benefits for future climate

• Coupled with Sustainable Development Plan of Action on Water: quality, quanity

Click to edit Master title styleFree Air Carbon Dioxide

Enrichment (FACE)Research

Click to edit Master title styleFACE Research

• Assessment now of impacts of future elevated carbon dioxide levels on biological systems

• IGBP Global FACE Network covers major ecosystems

• Provides insights into national and global adaptation strategies

Click to edit Master title styleRegional Climate Assessments

Farmers using information to manage for current climate variability

Examples:• GrowOTAGO climate /

soil mapping project• Kaipara / Far North

climate / soil / crop project

• Southern Climate & Pasture Outlook

Click to edit Master title styleEnabling Individual Farmers

• Top-down impacts/vulnerability assessments have received little attention from farmers

• Need to engage farmers at local scale with a “view from the ground” perspective

• Series of farmer interviews and workshops focusing on “sustainability” and positive options for managing risks covering: Diversification Water issues Good information at right level / timing

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Click to edit Master title styleAdaptation – Regulatory Responses• Are part of Sustainable Development strategies• Regulatory framework for adaptation:

Regional Councils develop regional policies and manage natural resources/hazards

Resource Management Act requires “particular regard to the effects of climate change”

Detailed guidance on how to consider effects has been developed for local government

Local Government Act - framework for Sustainable Development strategies and community-based long-term plans

Click to edit Master title styleConclusions

• Adaptation is very important for agricultural based economies whether developed or developing

• Positive and negative impacts expected in the short-term

• Some impacts well quantified, some are only qualitatively known or poorly understood

• Biggest negative impacts in medium term likely to arise from climate extremes (eg drought, floods, biosecurity. water management, biodiversity)

• Adaptive capacity in agriculture is generally high, but needs to be integrated into business decisions

• Sharing of tools will enhance progress for all countries