class 6 identifying and validating assumptions

Developed by Christina Wodtke & Laura Klein (clever bits by Laura) with illustrations from Kate Rutter. @cwodtke | cwodtke.com @lauraklein | usersknow.com @katerutter | intelleto.com

Class 6: Identifying and (In)Validating Assumptions

@cwodtkewww.eleganthack.com


LAST WEEK

3


“NEVER WRITE ON THE BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS, THAT’S WHY GOD GAVE US POST-IT NOTES”

-ALEX OSTERWALDER


Do the Math


ASSUMPTIONS

8

(If you’re lucky)Research

Define

Ideate

Prototype

Test

Design

Develop

Waterfall

Meh

Research

Define

IdeatePrototyp

eTest

Design

Develop

The Problem

Illustration by Kate Rutter

Lean is about Learning

Be wary here. Build the smallest possible thing you can to answer a question.


From Google Ventures Design Sprint http://www.gv.com/lib/the-gv-research-sprint-a-4-day-process-for-answering-important-startup-questions

By using Lean Startup, we identify assumptions before we base our whole

product strategy on them.

Why is it better?

So, what is an assumption,

anyway?

Types of Assumptions

Problem

Solution

Implementation

Types of Assumptions

Problem: Is there a problem?

Solution: Is this the right way to solve it?

Implementation: Can you build & sell it before running out of money?

Business concept by Laura Klein. Illustration by Kate Rutter

“People who have pets are upset by cost.”

Problem


“People need a marketplace for pet jobs.”

Solution


“Pets can work!”

Implementation


DropBox

For Example?

Do people have trouble accessing files across

multiple devices?

What’s The Problem?

People Have Multiple Devices

People Want to Access the Same Files Across Those

Devices

This Is Hard to Do

Problem Assumptions

Are people willing to download multiple applications and trust

storing files in the cloud?

What’s The Solution?

People Will Download DropBox on Multiple Devices

People Will Trust the Service with Important Data

People Understand How DropBox Folders Work

Solution Assumptions

Can we sync files across multiple devices quickly and

accurately enough?

What’s The Implementation?

We Can Build a Product that Syncs Files Across Multiple

Operating Systems

The Product Will Sync Quickly and Accurately

Implementation Assumptions

Your Turn

For Product to succeed, it is necessary that

___________________.

Here’s The Template

Write down your assumptions

3For Product to succeed, it is necessary that ___________________.

Categorize Your Assumptions

P

SI

1

What Makes an Assumption

Risky?

So, What’s Yours?

Likely(to fail)

Unlikely(to fail)

Annoying

Devastating

2

Building is NEVER your

Riskiest Assumption

Ok, Almost Never Illustration by Kate Rutter

Targets ChangeIllustration by Kate Rutter

A hypothesis statement should

contain:1.What you believe2.How you will know if you were right

Problem Hypothesis Example:

We believe people like customer type have a need for (or problem doing)need/action/behavior. We will know we have validated this when we see quantitative/measurable outcome or qualitative/observable outcome. *

*This text was almost entirely stolen from Janice Fraser.

Solution Hypothesis Example:

We believe people like customer type will solve their problem by solution behavior. We will know we have validated this when we see quantitative/measurable outcome or qualitative/observable outcome.

Implementation Hypothesis Example:

We believe our company can provide solution by implementation method.We will know we have validated this when we see quantitative/measurable outcome or qualitative/observable outcome.

Now You Try ItWrite Down:1.What you believe2.How you will know if you were right

2

Build Your Test

Various Types of Tests

Landing Pages

Landing pages are good for…

learning whether people are interested enough in

your idea to give you their email addresses

Landing pages are bad for…

Everything Else

Landing pages help validate:

The Problem

Audience Building

Audience Building is good for…

learning the size of the audience you can attract to your product before

committing a lot of money and technical

resources.

How to build an audience

1. Give away expertise for free on a regular basis. 2. Establish yourself as an expert in the space. 3. Build a community of like minded people.

Audience Building helps validate:

The Problem

Concierge

Concierge is good for…

learning what is actually required for your product before

committing a lot of money and technical

resources.

Concierge: How Do You Do It?

Provide a service for someone manually.Figure out the parts of the problem that users need the most help with.

Concierge helps you understand:The Problem

Concierge helps validate:The Solution

Wizard of Oz

Wizard of Oz is good for…

learning what you need to automate before committing a lot of

money and technical resources

How Do You Do Wizard of Oz?

Use humans instead of automation until you can’t. Do things that don’t scale.

Wizard of Oz helps validate:

The Implementation

Fake Door

Fake Doors are good for…

learning whether users have any interest in your feature before committing a lot of

money and technical resources

Fake Door: How do you do it

Add the first interaction with an interface.Provide a good experience for the user even if it’s not what they expect.

Fake Doors help validate:

The Solution

Sell It

Selling is good for…

learning whether users will pay for your product

before committing a lot of money and technical

resources

How do you Sell?Post your idea on Kickstarter

Ask for a credit card or pre-payment

Selling helps validate:The Solution

Your Turn

Identify the Best Method of Validation

Problem Solution Implementation

Landing Page

Audience Building

Concierge

Wizard of Oz

Fake Door

Selling3

@lauraklein | usersknow.com

QUESTIONS?

80


Homework!•Create a landing page for your product (or run some other validation test if you prefer).