Causal Layered Analysis

Post-structuralism as method. A futures tool developed by

Sohail Inayatullah

Identifying and analysing: •  “Litany” •  “Causes” •  “Worldview” •  “Myth/Metaphor”

…resulting in changed behavior (layer five).

From superficial to subtle: the five layers of CLA

Causal Layered Analysis and the “five key activities” of FS:

•  Litany = identifying change. •  Causes = systems analysis / critique. •  Worldview = critique >> scenarios. •  Myth/Metaphor = old vision to new. •  …creating open space for new

behaviors, goals, plans = planning, implementing, creating change.

Causes

Metaphors and Myths

Problem

Social, Economic, Cultural

Discourse Analysis: culture, values, language, postmodernisms, spiral dynamics memes (alternatives)

Myth/Metaphor Analysis: Jungian archetypes, ancient bedrock stories, gut level responses, emotional responses, visual images - may not be words for it (visioning)

Worldview

The “Litany”: official public description of issue observational: events, trends, diagnosed problems, media spin, opinions, policy; visible and audible; unconnected (scanning)

Social Science Analysis: Short-term historical facts start connecting; systems analysis, feedback interconnections, technical explanations, social analysis, policy analysis (systems)

Sources: R. Slaughter, “Integral Operating System” World Future Society, July 2003, drawing on Sohail Inayatullah; Dennis List, “3 Maps of the Future,” July 18, 2003; Andy Hines, UH-Clear Lake, 2006.

Continuous

Years

Societal/Civilizational

Decades

Time Scale of Change

Litany: public description of the issue.

•  Definition: –  events, –  trends, –  problems, –  “word on the

street,” –  media spin, –  official positions.

•  Example: Marriage. –  Climbing US divorce

rate; –  More single parent &

“blended” families; –  More cross-cultural,

cross-church, & alternative marriages;

–  More commuting marriages.

Causes: scientific and systems analyses

•  Definition: –  structures, –  interrelationships, –  systems, –  policy analysis,

technical explanations, role of the state and interest groups.

•  Example: Marriage. –  Fragmentation of

communities; –  Wedding (party) no

longer linked to marriage (commitment);

–  AIDS epidemic >> monogamy = safety.

Worldview

•  Definition: –  culture, –  values, –  how language

frames/constrains the issue.

•  Example: Marriage. –  Be fruitful -- and be

sanctified; –  Purity, commitment,

monogamy, fidelity, childrearing;

–  Double standards; –  “Old man/lady;”

“breadwinner” and “home-maker”, etc. .

Myth/Metaphor

•  Definition: –  collective archetypes, –  gut/emotional

responses, –  visual images.

•  Example: Marriage. –  Adam and Eve; –  The Great Mother; –  American Gothic; –  Someone for

everyone -- but only one;

–  Cake - dance - ring; –  Security vs. fear of

commitment.

•  The American Dream (liberty and democracy) •  The Earth was made for man (Ishmael) •  Perfect Information (Adam Smith) •  Grow or die (for business) •  The market rules •  The goal of the corporation is to maximize return to

shareholders. •  Full employment is a desirable goal •  Education is an economic investment •  Horatio Alger •  If you don’t play, you can’t win

Examples of Myths:

CHANGE!

Using CLA to create alternative scenarios / visions:

Identify the litany: current conditions & events. Analyze the causes: interrelationships, systems. Explore the worldview: values and cultural icons. Unveil the myths/metaphors: archetypes, emotions.

Analyse down, identifying alternative litanies, causes, worldviews, and myths: create change by choosing alternatives as you surface.

E.g., Futures for Marriage

•  From “one on one” to Heinlein’s linear or clan marriages;

•  From “cake-dance-ring” to digital candy-SecondLife celebration-embedded ID chip;

•  From American Gothic to the Beckhams -- celebrity couples.

Dematerialization: From Pounds to Sense More and more of the value of products will come from the information content rather than the physical content. The key is to capture the value of that information content.

An example of applying CLA at Dow Chemical. First, the scanning team identified eight discontinuities, or confluences of trends pointing in the same direction, that they thought were significant for Dow:

TREND IT1: More consumers and businesses are embracing e-commerce. TREND M1: Materials are becoming smarter. TREND EC12: Commoditization is happening faster and faster. TREND EC10: New economic measures will emerge to reflect socially desirable

goals, such as environmental quality. TREND EC11: New models are emerging to explain the "new economy." TREND EN2: Products are being increasingly designed for re-use. TREND P5: "Global management" of global-scale issues is emerging.

Hydrocarbon Cleaning

Solvents c. 1930’s

Perchloroethylene c. 1950’s

Cleaning Services c. 2001

•  flammable •  dangerous

•  nonflammable •  good vapor properties •  neighborhood cleaners

•  Safetainer •  recycle •  provide expertise

Trend to Value Added

Case study courtesy Andy Hines, from Dow Chemical

Problem

Social Causes

Worldview

Myth/metaphor

Prices of commodities continue to fall Specialties converting to commodity status faster Fewer “dumb” customers as information sharing becomes easier Rise of buyer coops rise of internet auctions and E-commerce exchanges More rapid outsourcing to lower costs Rising capabilities of automation Drive to lighter products to encourage energy efficiency & less resource use, e.g., Hypercar)

While a problem for those in businesses being commoditized, good news for consumers Drives the economy/business to continuously innovate and move to higher value-added products -- provides jobs for developing world Could see rise of monopsony -- monopoly of buyers Growth of highly educated employees requiring high-tech jobs and high value-added products Sustainability driving towards conversation and re-use in the affluent world Resource prices remain cheap until right before the run out (Lilly pond effect) This is a long-term trend of more know-how going into products Greater understanding of systems and use of lifecycle analysis

Myth being challenged is infinite resources and techno-fix Confronting the Earth was made for man (Ishmael) Confronting short-term thinking The Adam Smith “perfect information” metaphor coming into being and challenging those who benefited from imperfect information We must grow!

CLA of Dematerialization

Case study courtesy Andy Hines, from Dow Chemical

Implications of Dematerialization •  Selling by the pound will be increasingly less

profitable •  Products with high raw materials cost be very difficult

to make money with - search for alternative feedstocks

•  Emphasis on functionality provided •  Work with customer on emphasizing the knowledge

content •  Sharing value-added to incentivize customers •  Monetize previously “free” services •  Move to service-based models, leasing, licensing,

e.g., Dow’s Safety-Kleen, Interfaces Evergreen Lease •  Need for continuous innovation

Case study courtesy Andy Hines, from Dow Chemical

•  Pick an issue: “The Future of …” •  Brainstorm each level separately and talk about it:

–  Brainstorm on sticky note pads –  Cluster like items into themes –  Identify gaps and needs for research (optional)

•  Once you get to the bottom, create a scenario from one of the different myths, working back up to the top, using the brainstormed materials from the different layers to fill in your scenario

CLA Exercise: