Where is the growth coming from?Civil Society to the Rescue?

Will Hutton

The rise of “ bad capitalism”

Size of UK banking sector

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1880 1904 1928 1952 1976 2000

Banking sector assets (per cent of GDP)

Long-run equity capital ratios

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5

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1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Per cent

United Kingdom

United States

Source: US – Berger, A., Herring, R. and Szegö, G. (1995). UK – Sheppard, D.K. (1971), British Bankers’ Association, published accounts and Bank calculations.

A BRAVE NEW WORLD: Recessions comparedNote: In the past it has taken between 36 and 48 months to return the level of output to where it was at the start of the recession. Source: NIESR

Where have the jobs been coming from over the last 30 years?

• Manufacturing – minus 3.8 million • Health and Social care – 1.9 million • Professional, Scientific and Technical – 1.5 million • Administration and Business Services – 1.3 million• Education – 1.1 million

Knowledge based industries defined by the OECDNote: manufacturing classified by R&D intensity; services classified by ICT use and employment of graduates. Recreational and cultural industries recognised as knowledge based by EU but not OECD, and includes libraries and museums.

Knowledge economy and the 1980s recession and recovery

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0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

ind

ex 1

980

=10

0

KE market based KE public based Manufacturing Other Services

Knowledge economy and the 1990s recession and recovery

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0.4

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1

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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

ind

ex 1

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KE market based KE public based Manufacturing Other Services

Market based knowledge services leading the current jobs recoveryAll figures UK workforce jobs, March 2010 to March 2011. Eurostat 2010 definitions of KE industries. KE market based services include information and communication, financial, professional, technical and scientific services, and arts, recreational and entertainment services. Other market services include distribution, transport, hospitality, real estate, other services. Production is manufacturing, construction, energy and water supply. KE public based includes education, health, and public administration. Total also includes agriculture and mining.

Knowledge based sectors leading the entrepreneurial revivalNote: all figures employees, excluding health employment. Knowledge service industries are OECD definition and include business, high tech, and financial services. Other sectors include transport, retailing, hospitality and other services delivered by non-public organisations. SMEs defined as all with less than 250 employees.

A short history of general purpose technologies (GPTs)…

The Innovation Ecosystem

Access to finance

Skills

Competition

Demand

Openness

Public research

Twenty-first century prospects ? Grand Challenges

• The mobile phone• Nanotechnologies• Energy from fusion• Advanced materials• Carbon sequestration• Space• Manage the nitrogen cycle• Water• Health informatics • Durable customised infrastructure• Customised medicine• The brain• Cyberspace security• Enhance virtual reality• Personalised learning

The rise of the experiential – authors of our own lives

• Air travel

• Customised cars – Formula One forerunner for all of us

• The adventure holiday

• The shopping mall

• The live gig

• Virtual reality

• The SIPP

• The Sarkozy Index

• etc etc

Some 21st century jobs – UK Dept of Business

• Body parts manufacturing and storing• Pharming – cultivation of genetically modified crops• High rise farming – cultivation in skyscrapers• Personal brand consultants for social networking• Customised avatars as teaching aids• Space guides• Miniaturisation doctors • Old age well being advisers• Care assistants

Potential sectors…..

• Average life expectancy of S and P 500 company 45 yrs in 1955 – 11 years today

• “ Manuservices” in aerospace, pharmaceuticals, defence, high tech engineering( cars, chemicals)

• Low carbon economy – energy production, energy efficiency, green manufacturing plus associated services

• Life sciences• Creative and cultural industries – design, electronic/digital media

and publishing, games• High tech and business services – computer, business to business

services• Caring and servicing the newly young old

New Flexibilities

• 5/6 transformational GPTs likely during 50 year working life of a 2012 graduate

• Open innovation business models new template – joint ventures, openness, porousness ( Unilever and “ open innovation orchestrators”)

• Average expectancy of firms around 10 years• All skills and professions likely to become obsolescent• Need to commit to constant reinvention• Responsibility for own health, pension and transitional support

between jobs• Vibrant civil society key platform for future growth

Some places are more innovative than others

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Proportion of employment in Private Sector Knowledge Intensive Industries (2008)

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l G

VA

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wth

19

95

-20

08

London

Milton Keynes

Edinburgh

Aldershot

Swindon

Derby

CambridgeReading

Stoke-on-TrentBlackpool

Barnsley

Birkenhead

Mansfield

R2 = 0.402

THE ENTERPRISING STATE AND

GOOD CAPITALISM

Good capitalism• Embrace the new and recognise change is the new normal • Good ownership – stewardship and performance• Innovate, innovate, innovate• Human capital • Finance to grow• Flexicurity• Public and private co-create wealth

The Enterprising State: A plan for public action and incentives for private action

• Action is needed to strengthen innovation policy for the future in order to turn the UK into a global innovation hub:

– Analyze where system failures occur: What kind of failures and what is the role of the actors and institutions in causing these failures?

– Evaluate current policies: do they address the right failures in the right way? Do they cause inefficiencies in the innovation system?

– Justify a plan for innovation policies for the growth of the UK economy

The Enterprising State: A plan for public action and incentives for private action

Innovation policy for short and long run growth is about:• Eliminating system failure• Increase economic value pie and productivity, by

– Facilitate ‘technological timely’ and ‘matching/complementary’ formal and informal institutions which are able to shape productive interactive processes in which

– innovative agents (firms and individuals, research institutions, customers/demand, authorities, financial institutions/banks) can interact and create value in an open innovation process.

THE ROLE OF

CIVIL SOCIETY

Flexicurity – a new social contract to support good capitalism

• From jobs as property to jobs as career building blocks in a fast changing environment

• An end to No compulsory redundancy – mutual worker co-operatives hire labour tto SMEs with no redundancy costs but quid pro quo is high investment in skills

• Mutual provides a wage even when worker not formally employed but worker agrees commitment to skills acquisition

• Radical overhaul of education and skills curriculum• Northern Ireland Office is Employer of last resort• The Mutual co-operative issues bonds and may invest or lend to

SMEs

But how much can Northern Ireland do alone?

• Crucial juncture in Northern Ireland history – an end to the Irish tiger, possible Scottish independence. Where is the growth model? What does identity mean in a context of wrecked south and a fractured union?

• The public sector is constrained for a decade.• The only option is private sector dynamism • But most of the tools and cash to create institutions and spend run

out of Westminster• The Civil Society offer is the only potential unique selling point