city of london highway 401 east employment land corridor planning and economic impact...

8/6/2019 City of London Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor Planning and Economic Impact Analysis-Justification R

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City of London Highway 401 East Employment Land CorridorPlanning and Economic Impact Analysis / Justification Report


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Sergio E. Pompilii & Assoc. Ltd. Date: July 20, 2011

City of London Highway 401 East Employment Land CorridorPlanning and Economic Impact Analysis / Justification Report


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2011 Sergio E. Pompilii & Assoc. Ltd.

Table of Contents

Part 1: Executive Summary......................................................................................1

Part 2: Planning Background

Subsection 1:

Responding to the Issue of the Altering of the Urban

Growth Boundary when there is an Oversupply ofUrban Reserve Industrial and Community Growth Lands.........................9

Subsection 2:

Analysis of the City of Londons Oversupply of Urban

Reserve Industrial and Community Growth Lands....................................11

Subsection 3:

Options the Corporation of the City of London ShouldConsider in Establishing the Highway 401 East Employment

Land Corridor and Rectifying of Urban Reserve IndustrialAnd Community Growth Lands.....................................................................14

Part 3: Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor

Subsection 1:

Staging for Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor...........................18

Subsection 2:

Parameters for Determining Total Potential Developable

Square Feet within the Highway 401 East EmploymentLand Corridor

A. Developable Area.....................................................................26B. Lot Coverages..........................................................................27


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Subsection 3:

Calculating Total Potential Square Footage of theHighway 401 East Employment Land Corridor

A.

Stage 1 Lands..........................................................................28

B. Stage 2 Lands..........................................................................29C. Stage 3 Lands..........................................................................30D. Stage 4 Lands..........................................................................31E. Total Potential Developable Light or General

Industrial/Office Business Park Square FootageBased on the Above Four Phases............................................32

Subsection 4:

Total Potential Construction Costs to Develop the OverallHighway 401 East Employment Land Corridor..............................................33

Subsection 5:

Calculating Wage/Income Benefits of New ConstructionWithin the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor

A. Direct Construction Costs........................................................34B. Income Benefit from the Creation of

Direct Construction Jobs..........................................................35

Subsection 6:

Comparative Analysis of Municipal Growth Rates.........................................36

Subsection 7:

Projected Municipal Employment Growth Rates

Based on Current Studies.................................................................................37


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Subsection 8:

What Londons Employment Growth Rate Should Be....................................39

Subsection 9:

Determination of Direct Permanent Jobs through

The Utilization of an Employment Growth Target

A. Direct Number of Permanent Jobs............................................40

B. Income Benefit of Creating

Direct Permanent Jobs...............................................................41

Subsection 10:

Municipal Financial Impact By Way of

Property Tax Revenue

A. Changes in Average per Acre Assessed Values.........................43B. Changes in Average Assessed Values........................................44C. Changes in Property Tax Revenue.............................................45

Subsection 11:

Assessing Spin-Off Effects Originating

From the Highway 401 East Employment Corridor...........................................46

Subsection 12:

Potential Population Growth Based

On New Employment Within the

Highway 401 East Industrial Corridor................................................................48

Subsection 13:

Comparative Analysis of

Londons Real GDP Figures...............................................................................49


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Subsection 14:

Missed Opportunities to Facilitate

The Recovery of Londons Economy................................................................50

Subsection 15:

Economic Analysis of London and

Identification of Opportunities to

Improve In Key Sectors.....................................................................................52

Subsection 16:

Recommended Options to Attract Industry

Within the Highway 401 East Industrial Corridor.............................................60

Part 4: Conclusion..........................................................................................................63

Part 5: Figures................................................................................................................73

Part 6: References..........................................................................................................92

Part 7: Bibliography.......................................................................................................100


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City of London Highway 401 East Employment Land CorridorPlanning and Economic Impact Analysis/Justification Report

2011 Sergio E. Pompilii & Assoc. Ltd. London Waterloo Region Greater Toronto Area 1111

Part 1:

Executive Summary

This study will examine the economic impact of opening up the Highway 401 East Corridor for

employment growth, note Figure 1 (p. 73). The Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor

will be examined in detail, as a result of its locational attributes, overall timing of development

and accessibility to strategic markets. Our firm has determined that the potential Highway 402

East Employment Land Corridor between the Highway 401/402 junction and Highway 4 will be

a longer term employment land development area because of its function as a secondary 400-

series freeway to Highway 401. Based on this assessment, it will begin to emerge after a

substantive portion of the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor has undergone

development. Presently, there is ample designated employment land within the Urban Growth

Boundary (UGB), north of Dingman Drive, and north and south of Exeter Road between

Wonderland Road and the Highway 401/402 interchange for the Southwest Area of London. In

addition, the Wonderland Road Corridor should be viewed as a community growth gateway for

the Southwest Area of London because it connects to Highway 402 and soon Highway 401.

As a result, this study recognizes that the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor has

both a more urgent need and practicality for employment growth than the Highway 402 EastEmployment Land Corridor. The principal reasons for this are as follows:

1. Londons traditional 400-series highway employment corridor is Highway 401 fromWellington Road to Forest City Industrial Park.

2. Veterans Memorial Parkway (VMP) has been recognized as an in-city expressway thatextends from Skyway Industrial Park, south to Innovation Park and Highway 401. The

Highway 401/VMP interchange will now be revamped to a full cloverleaf.

3. The VMP will now be extended to Wilton Grove Road, in order for the full interchangeat Highway 401 to take effect and open up additional lands for employment growth.


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4. Highway 401 is by far the most travelled 400-series highway within the City of Londonbecause of its direct connection to the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) and

overall Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), and both the Northeastern and Midwestern

United States (U.S.).

5. Lands fronting along Highway 401, east of Highbury Avenue, have already undergoneemployment growth by way of Forest City, Highbury, and Innovation Parks. In addition,

through the introduction of Office Business Park uses within this corridor, opportunities

for other forms of employment could emerge, in tandem with the traditional

manufacturing and logistics/warehousing uses (i.e. corporate headquarters, research and

development, information and communication technology, aerospace, and

biomedical/pharmaceutical). This will further strengthen and broaden Londons

economic diversity and provide increased employment within other sectors of the local

and regional economies, as will be further detailed within this analysis.

6. The Corporation of the City of London is presently recognizing the need and practicalityof opening up the Highway 401 East Corridor for employment growth, specifically from

Highbury Avenue, east to the City limits.

Our firms findings can be summarized as follows:

1. Approximately 70% of the current oversupply of vacant and underutilized industriallands within the UGB, both designated and set aside for future industrial growth, are

unserviced and/or years away from development. This is a result of the fact that the

Vision 96 Process did not fully recognize the potential of the Highway 401 East

Corridor and London did not experience the population and employment growth

anticipated at that time, which would have coincided with historical trends. As aresult, Londons future has not been sufficiently addressed since that Process and this

trend could continue for the next 20 years. As a result, it is difficult to sustain or

increase the size of a municipalitys labour force if the appropriate measures are not

taken to attract employment and grow the local population.


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2. The Corporation of the City of London should consider the following options torectify the oversupply of both Urban Reserve (UR) Industrial and Community

Growth lands:

a) A Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity to immediately include Stage 1 and 2lands within the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor, currently outside

of the UGB, note Figure 6. The Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing

(MMAH) could direct the Corporation of the City of London to include these

parcels as part of the UGB.

Stage 3 and 4 lands and the remnant parcel for future community growth, north of

Bradley Avenue, would not be subject to the Emergent Opportunity, as they are

not as strategic at this time, in terms of locational attributes and timing of

development, note Figure 6. Thus, they would remain outside of the UGB for

further consideration through the Comprehensive 2016 Official Plan Review

Process.

b) Rectify the missed opportunity during the Vision 96 Process and the twosubsequent 5-Year Official Plan Reviews since then by placing all existing UR -

Industrial Growth lands into a four stage development timeline through the 2011

Official Plan Review Process.

Where appropriate, the re-designation of inadequate UR Industrial Growth lands

to UR Community Growth should be considered within the 2011 Official Plan

Review Process if their site specific characteristics permit. It could prepare these

land tracts for future residential, commercial, institutional and recreational uses,

once serviceable. In addition, these lands would support the amount of associated

population growth generated from the Highway 401 East Employment Land

Corridor.


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3. Based on a developable area of 772.17 hectares (1,908.07 acres), up to approximately28.37 million square feet of space could be developed within the Highway 401 East

Employment Land Corridor. An associated 17,520 to 20,040 construction jobs could

be created with an income benefit of up to $727.63 million. Through the utilization of

a 30 to 40-job per hectare target, between 23,165 and 30,887 direct permanent jobs

related to industrial and office business park uses could also be created. The income

benefit of creating the above direct permanent jobs would amount up to $2.51 billion.

4. The assessed value of lands within the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridorpotentially increasing up to $1,396,043,232 once they are designated, zoned and

developed.

5. Property tax revenue potentially increasing up to $66,351,240 per annum, once landswithin the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor are designated, zoned and

developed.

6. If 23,165 to 30,887 direct jobs, potential originating from the Highway 401 EastEmployment Land Corridor were to be added to the labour force and 55% of

Londons population would continue to be part of the labour force, the municipalitys

population could increase by 42,118 to 56,158.

7. While London did increase infrastructural spending from 2009 to date, which assistedin increasing construction output, large-scale projects that could have been geared

towards providing the municipality long-term economic stability and growth were not

pursued. Based on the analysis of other centres (i.e. the Kitchener CMAs light rail

project, the Windsor CMAs Windsor-Essex Parkway, and the Hamilton CMAs Red

Hill Valley Parkway), these funds and the pursuit of more substantive upper level

governmental infrastructure monies could have been utilized to complete major road

works, bridges and municipal servicing that would have had long-term job creation

and economic stimulating effects, providing city-wide benefits. The Highway 401


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East Employment Land Corridor could serve a similar function to the two above

referenced expressway projects, enabling London to experience the aforementioned

direct benefits.

8. London should improve in the following sectors:

a) Economy, within which GDP per capita and growth have been middling since2006;

b) Education and society, where London continues to lose its proportion of the 25 to34 age group, which enables municipalities to be better positioned for the future,

despite Londons internationally recognized post-secondary institutions;

c) Innovation, where London has not been adept in wealth creation; and

d) Housing, where the number of starts since 2006 has reflected the municipalitysmiddling population growth and inability to attract large-scale employment.

9. The 15,000 manufacturing jobs lost since 2006 and 10,000 jobs shed in all sectorswithin the past 12 months have not been fully recovered. In addition, more jobs are at

risk, most notably from the Talbotville Ford Assembly Plant. London should have

been more proactive in retaining and attracting industry during this period.

10.London should recognize the fact that historically, its economic base has always beencontingent on its diversity. Londons economy was reasonably well-balanced, with an

appropriate mix of manufacturing and service industries. Because of this fact,

Londons cyclical swings were less violent than those of centres, dominated by a

single major company or industry. Londons diverse economy included insurance,


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finance, education, health care, manufacturing and service industries, along with

being a vibrant regional city.

Namely Kitchener and Hamilton are now outperforming London in several key

economic sectors and are increasingly working towards diversifying their economies.

In addition, London no longer has a dominant financial and insurance base. If London

does not address the sectors of its economy that are currently underperforming and

work towards becoming more innovative in opening up employment lands within the

Highway 401 East Corridor, its economic diversity will be subject to further decline.

11.London should embrace the fact that it is becoming increasingly linked to the TorontoCMA and the overall GGH from an economic standpoint and take advantage of the

attributes it has and can obtain to compete against municipalities of similar size.

12.London has an opportunity to capture its share of the need for industry to radiate outof the Toronto CMA. By doing so, it can compete against other centres in both

Southern and Southwestern Ontario. Opening the Highway 401 East Employment

Land Corridor would respond to the need of industrial users to look to locate along

400-series highways due to increased exposure and time-distance considerations.

13.London has an opportunity to expand its supply of Office Business Park land, whichwould result in the emergence of other forms of employment, in addition to the

traditional manufacturing and logistics/warehousing uses (i.e. corporate headquarters,

research and development, information and communication technology, aerospace,

and biomedical/pharmaceutical).

14.London should allow the private sector to play a larger role in employment growth, asbusiness investment confidence in non-residential development is projected to

increase within Ontario and public sector spending by all levels of government will


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f) Continue to exempt the private sector from development charges for industrialuses. However, lessen or lift the current surcharges the private sector is required

to pay for land exposed to Highway 401 and bear the cost of servicing

connections from the main to the property lines.

g) Provide the private sector and manufacturers tax credits, in a similar fashion to theOntario government.


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Part 2: Planning Background

Subsection 1:

Responding to the Issue of Altering theUrban Growth Boundary when there is

An Oversupply of Urban Reserve -

Industrial and Community Growth Lands

The cost of urban expansion led to legislated compact communities in Ontario during the mid

1990s because it affected all stakeholders within and around an urban area, such as home and

business owners, the agricultural sector, and both rural and urban municipal governments. As a

result, provincial, regional, and local governments realized that they needed to act by legislating

measures against urban expansion.

The most effective tool to legislate compact communities was to establish Urban Growth

Boundaries (UGBs) through Provincial Policy Statements (PPS), spearheaded through the Smart

Growth movement across Canada, where all forms of urban growth would occur within defined

areas over 15 to 20-year planning periods. During this timeframe, expansions to the UGB would

only be considered if they represented immediate emergent opportunities outside of 5-Year

Official Plan Reviews that could not be accommodated within defined areas. As a result, lands

outside of the UGB have been effectively excluded from development, along with other

measures through the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing (MMAH).

Londons UGB was initiated through the Vision 96 / OPA No. 88 Comprehensive Official Plan

Review Process, which primarily oversaw the designation of lands that were annexed through

TheLondon-Middlesex Act, 1992(Bill 75). The UGB has seen limited expansion since the

approval of Official Plan Amendment (OPA) No. 88 in 1999 (i.e. O.R.E. and Forest City

Industrial Parks by way of the 2001 Official Plan Review). As a result, to be fixated on the fact

that Londons original UGB must be maintained at all costs to prevent urban expansion is largely

unjustified in this current economic climate. Community growth lands (i.e. residential,

commercial, and institutional uses) have traditionally been seen as requiring compact urban form


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and the need for infill and intensification because they constitute the largest component in the

development of urban areas.

On the other hand, employment lands are the engine of a local economy and should be treated

differently because of the nature of development that they bring (i.e. smaller in scale in relation

to community growth lands and only occurring in strategic areas of a municipality, as will be

further detailed in this analysis). In Londons case, the lack of full recognition of Highway 401,

as a driver for economic growth, should be addressed because of its uniqueness and strategic

location within the municipal boundary. This is especially the case at this time and in the future,

given Londons current economic state. It is now time that lands abutting and in close proximity

to the UGB be accepted as strategic and cost-effective for employment growth. There should be

the recognition of the fact that UGBs are imperfect and subject to strategic adjustments, most

notably the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor, which will provide city-wide

economic benefits and allow London to properly utilize the most significant trade corridor in

Ontario.


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Subsection 2:

Analysis of the City of Londons

Oversupply of Urban Reserve


The City of Londons May 28, 2007 Land Needs Study determined that there was an oversupply

of Urban Reserve (UR) Industrial and Community Growth lands within the UGB, which has

prevented any alteration to Londons UGB1. From an industrial perspective, the report concluded

that there was a sufficient supply of vacant and underutilized land for industrial growth for a 20-

year period, within intensified or disbursed growth scenarios2, as noted in Figure 2 (p. 74).

However, approximately 70% of the oversupply of vacant and underutilized industrial lands (i.e.

1,383 hectares), both designated and set aside for future industrial growth, are unserviced and/or

years away from development, as can be noted in Figure 3 (p. 75).

The following summary points from the City of Londons May 28, 2007 Land Needs Study

presentation provide the rationale behind the Vision 96 estimates being high and the oversupply

of UR- Community and Industrial Growth lands within the UGB:

a) Forecasts were based on 1991 Census data and were consistent with provincialforecasts at the time.

b) A 25% contingency factor was added to the forecast.

c) The Ontario Municipal Board (OMB) did not accept updated forecasts based on 1996Census data.

d)

In their final decision, the OMB added 35% more land (40% more residentialland) to the Urban Growth Area3.


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It can be argued that the above cannot be fully utilized as the cause for the oversupply of UR

Industrial and Community Growth lands. History demonstrates that Londons average annual

population growth rate from 1971 to 1991 of approximately 1.8%4 exceeded the 1.6% annual

population growth projections for the 1996 to 2016 period set in 1993 (i.e. from 326,000 to

432,000 people)5. More specifically, the average annual population growth rate of 1.5% for the

1991 to 1996 period6 mirrored the projection for 1996 to 2016. Employment growth proved to be

more favourable than population growth between 1971 and 1996, with an average annual

employment growth rate of 2.4%7891011. Thus, it is difficult to argue that the contingency factor

and additional land added to the UGB by the OMB was the primary cause for the oversupply of

UR Community and Industrial Growth lands. History provided the expectation of London to

continue the course of favourable population and employment growth as stipulated above.

However, subsequent to the Vision 96 Process, Londons actual population only increased from

326,000 in 1996 to 352,000 in 200612 and is forecasted at 368,400 for 2011 and 385,300 in

201613; thus it is expected to grow at annual rate of only 0.9% over this 15-year period. In

addition, there were 30,563 less people realized by 2006 than the Vision 96 target14. This trend

is expected to continue with an average annual projected population growth rate of 0.92% for the

2011 to 2026 period15. As a result, London is currently 8 years behind the projected Vision 96

target for 2011 and will be 10 years behind the 2016 target. While average annual employment

growth did sustain a rate of approximately 1.5% from 1996 to 2006, with the latter 5 years

experiencing the most significant gain of 1.8% annually161718, it is forecasted to decrease to an

average of 0.7% per annum from 2006 to 203119.

The above demonstrates that Londons future has not been sufficiently addressed and that it is

difficult to sustain or increase the size of a municipalitys labour force if the appropriate

measures are not taken to grow the local population and retain the 25 to 34-years of age

demographic group, as will be further discussed in Part 3, Subsection 15 (p. 52-53) of this

analysis.


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The Vision 96 Process did not identify strategic lands for industrial growth. Rather, lands were

designated UR Industrial Growth within the UGB that were located away from 400-series

highways and faced long-term development timelines due to the lack of short-term servicing. In

addition, many properties that were indentified for future industrial development were better

suited for community growth. Lands within the UGB for both future industrial and community

growth could have been classified in a staged process based on serviceability, as noted in the

following:

a) Stage 1 lands, which are immediately serviceable;

b) Stage 2 lands with possible 1 to 5-year servicing timelines;

c) Stage 3 lands with possible 5 to 20-year servicing timelines; and

d) Stage 4 lands with possible 20 plus year servicing timelines.


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Subsection 3:

Options the Corporation of the City of London

Should Consider in Establishing the Highway

401 East Employment Land Corridor andRectifying the Oversupply of Urban Reserve


Option 1: Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity for strategic lands within the Highway

401 East Employment Land Corridor

In terms of lands within the Highway 401 East Corridor from the Highbury Avenue, east to the

City limits, which are currently outside of the UGB, the MMAH could issue a Ministerial Order

directing the Corporation of the City of London to include these parcels as part of the UGB. This

is a result of the fact that these lands comprise an emergent opportunity for future employment

growth within the City of London. This was similarly the case with the lands for the Toyota

Motor Manufacturing Canada (TMMC) Woodstock plant, which were annexed from the

Township of Blandford-Blenheim into the City of Woodstock, as a result of a Provincial Order

from the MMAH to the County of Oxford.

Approximately 1,214 hectares (3,000 acres) of land were annexed from the Township of

Blandford-Blenheim to the west (i.e. the traditional municipal boundary of Woodstock) and to

the south (i.e. the Dundas Street/Highway 2 corridor), note Figure 4 (p. 76). This was a result of

accommodating TMMCs 405 hectare (1,000 acre) site and future employment lands in East

Woodstock. In addition, the Township of East-Zorra Tavistock and the City of Woodstock

negotiated a boundary adjustment to provide the latter with an increased supply of future

employment and residential lands. As part of this agreement, the City of Woodstock would

support and make every effort to provide a trunk sanitary sewer outlet for a connection from

Innerkip in the vicinity of the intersection of County Road 4 and County Road 17 within 5 years

of the date of annexation20.


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The MMAH assumed the responsibility of re-designating the TMMC lands to primarily

Traditional Industrial. The Minister of MMAH issued an Order to the County of Oxford to

rezone 28 properties that were acquired as part of the TMMC lands to Industrial. This

Ministerial Order did not require the County of Oxford to undergo Site Plan Control of the

TMMC plant, prior to the commencement of its construction. Both the Province of Ontario and

the County of Oxford did not require TMMC to submit a background study, justifying their need

to locate a manufacturing plant in Woodstock and outlining how their chosen location would

function from a planning perspective. This was utilized as tool to lure large-scale private sector

investment to a county in need of a long-term economic generator. Given this example, the City

of London can pursue its own economic initiative that will lure large-scale private sector

investment through securing a Ministerial Order for its Highway 401 East Employment Land

Corridor.

Based on the direction achieved to revamp the VMP/Highway 401 interchange and extend the

VMP south to Wilton Grove Road, two existing bookends or anchors will soon be completed

south of Highway 401, as can be noted in Figure 5 (p. 77). As a result, the need exists to create

Highway 401 employment land opportunities on both sides of this corridor through a Ministerial

Order/Emergent Opportunity. The scope of Londons Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity

would include Stage 1 and 2 lands, comprising a developable land area of 376.56 hectares

(931.39 acres) within an expanded UGB. They are located along the south side of Highway 401,

as depicted in Figure 6 (p. 78). The Stage 1 lands would be given a Light Industrial designation

and zoning to develop immediately, based on the fact that they possess full municipal services

along their frontage and have undergone approximately 80 to 85% of the required background

studies through the former Sun Life Financial initiative. This would fulfill the OMB compromise

of 2002 to remove the appeal during the Official Plan Amendment process to approve O.R.E.

and Forest City Industrial Parks, which stipulated that the Stage 1 lands, comprising the former

Sun Life Financial initiative, would be the first properties to be considered for UGB inclusion

within the next 5-Year Official Plan Review Process. Concurrent to the Stage 1 lands being


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immediately included within the UGB, the Stage 2 lands would receive UR Industrial Growth

designations. These lands would then be subject to an area plan

process to determine the nature, scope and timing of development. The Stage 3 and 4 lands andremnant parcel for future community growth, north of Bradley Avenue, as noted in Figure 6 (p.

78), would not be subject to the Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity at this time. Thus, they

should remain outside of the UGB for further consideration though the Comprehensive 2016

Official Plan Review Process. However, as will be discussed in Part 3, Subsection 1 (p. 24-25)

of the report, the Stage 4 lands, which comprise a developable land area of 212.74 hectares

(525.60 acres), could also be part of the Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity based on

servicing considerations.


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Part 3: Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor

Subsection 1:

Staging for the Highway 401

East Employment Land Corridor

Stage 1: Properties Considered for the Former Sun Life Financial Initiative, note Figure 6

(in blue).

Developable Land Area:

40.06 hectares (99 acres)

Rationale:

Readily available water and sanitary services along the full Wilton Grove Road frontage.

Approximately 80-85% of the required approvals have already been achieved, in terms of

justification for UGB inclusion from both planning and engineering perspectives.

Immediately abuts the UGB and directly south of Forest City Industrial Park, which is

approximately 85% developed.

Work undertaken within the former Sun Life Financial initiative has already determined

that the subject properties overall developable land area of 99 acres is significant enough

to attract all forms of employment land development.

What is required for development?

Inclusion within the UGB, in order to achieve an UR Industrial Growth designation that

would immediately remove the impediments a private sector development initiative

traditionally faces.


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How can this be achieved?

The introduction of a Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity, which would expedite the

UGB inclusion process and achieve a wide-ranging Light Industrial designation andzoning, prior to the commencement of a private sector development initiative.

Based on this fact, a private sector development initiative would only entail industrial

plan of subdivision and building permit approvals, in order for the subject properties to

develop.

Timing of Development:

Once the above referenced land use approvals are achieved (i.e. UGB inclusion and wide-

ranging Light Industrial designation and zoning), a private sector development initiative

can immediately proceed within the subject properties, once the above preconditions are

completed.


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Stage 2: Lands along the south side of Highway 401 (east of Cheese Factory Road to the

City limits) and the south side of Wilton Grove Road from Hubrey Road to

Commerce Road), note Figure 6 (in green).


336.50 hectares (832.39 acres)

Rationale:

Based on the fact that the Corporation of the City of London will soon extend the VMP,

south to Wilton Grove Road, an easterly bookend will be in place, south of Highway 401.

The westerly bookend is presently in place through O.R.E.s Highbury Business Park and

the Corporation of the City of Londons Forest City Industrial Park. As a result, lands

that front the south side of Highway 401 between Cheese Factory Road and the proposed

VMP extension would connect these two industrial bookends.

Once the Stage 1 lands are in place, a replicate of the bookend concept for lands south of

Wilton Grove Road on either side of Highbury Avenue that are also recommended as

Stage 2, will be created, as noted in Figure 6 (in green).


UGB inclusion and ultimately an area plan process, which would determine future land

uses and servicing through background studies and a public approval process.


The introduction of a Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity, which would complete

the UGB inclusion of these lands.


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Development timing is further behind the Stage 1 lands because there has been no prior

comprehensive planning and engineering work completed.

Qualifier:

Through our firms analysis of how Stage 1 and 2 lands can be achieved, there is a

recognizable opportunity that both of these stages can be brought in unison within the

UGB through a single comprehensive Ministerial Order/Emergent Opportunity option.


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Stage 3: Lands between Highway 401 and the south side of Bradley Avenue from Jackson

Road to the westerly limits of Innovation Park (Old Victoria Road), note Figure 6

(in orange).



Rationale:

The UGB presently abuts both the western and eastern boundaries of the subject land

area.

This land area fills in the remaining future employment lands within the Highway 401

East Employment Land Corridor from Jackson Road to the southerly end of Innovation

Park (i.e. similar to the aforementioned bookend analogy).

It should be noted that the Stage 3 lands are not within the same development window as

the Stage 2 lands, primarily due to the inherent encumbrances this area has, based on the

location of the Ontario Hydro corridor along their full Highway 401 frontage and theslope of the land towards the southwest and south, away from the VMP servicing

corridor.

In addition, it would provide the potential to include lands south of Commissioners Road,

west of Innovation Park and north of Bradley Avenue within the UGB as UR

Community Growth. Moreover, this land area presently abuts the existing UGB, along

its eastern, northern and western boundaries.


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Future municipal servicing can be achieved through further review of the Innovation

Park/Hamilton Road trunk connection for the north and northeasterly portions of thesubject land area that could be considered for possible UR Community Growth and the

remaining potential UR Community and Industrial Growth lands that slope to the

southwest could be considered for servicing and development, subsequent to the

completion of Stage 2 lands, south of Highway 401.


The land area south of Bradley Avenue could be included within the Comprehensive

2016 Official Plan Review Process, in order to achieve a UR Industrial Growth

designation.

It should be noted that the consideration of the aforementioned potential UR

Community Growth lands may or may not be part of the final direction taken from the

2016 Comprehensive Official Plan Review Process.


The Comprehensive 2016 Official Plan Review Process could include the Stage 3 lands

within the UGB and designate them UR Industrial Growth.

In addition, lands north of Bradley Avenue and west of Old Victoria Road could be

included within the UGB and designated UR Community Growth through this same

process.

The above would trigger an area plan process(es) for these lands.


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Stage 4: Lands south of Wilton Grove Road between the Stage 1 lands and easterly City

limits, note Figure 6 (in red).



Rationale:

Once Stage 1 and 2 lands are included within the UGB and the required servicing and

development has taken place and a need is established, this subject land area would

complete the full development of Wilton Grove Road from Hubrey Road to the easterly

City limits.

This land area is designated Stage 4 primarily due to the fact that it does not possess the

same locational attributes as the Stage 3 lands, in terms of fronting along Highway 401,

and positioned closer to the established urban fabric. Thus, this renders the lands south of

Wilton Grove Road as the final stage of employment land development within the

Highway 401 East Corridor.


Completion of the above three preconditions (i.e. establishment of servicing,

development occurring within Stages 1, 2 and 3, and the need to extend the UGB along

the south side of Wilton Grove Road, in order to accommodate future employment

growth.


The Stage 4 lands would have to await the Comprehensive 2016 Official Plan Review

Process.


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Qualifier:

If a pumping station is situated at the extreme southwestern quadrant of the subject land

area (in close proximity to the easterly flankage of the Stage 1 lands) and there is a need

for more immediate employment lands, the Stage 4 lands could be included within the

Stage 2 UGB timeline and development requirements.


The Stage 4 lands would have to await the Comprehensive 2016 Official Plan Review

Process. However, as noted above, timing of development could be sooner.


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Subsection 2:

Parameters for Determining Total

Potential Developable Square Feet within

The Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor

A. Developable Area:The total land area of the potential Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor is

approximately 983.07 hectares (2,429.13 acres). However, in order to realistically assess

the suitability of this overall land area for development, environmental features and/or

hazards were taken into account.

Schedule B-1 to the City of Londons Official Plan was utilized to delineate the natural

heritage features within the subject corridor (i.e. ESAs, Potential ESAs, Significant

Woodlots, Woodlands, Significant Corridors, Provincially and Locally Significant

Wetlands, and Maximum Hazard Lines), note Figure 7 (p. 79).

Schedule B-2 to the City of Londons Official Plan was utilized to delineate natural

resources and hazards within the subject corridor, note Figure 8 (p.80).

By taking the above Official Plan Schedules into consideration, approximately 210.90

hectares (521.14 acres) were omitted from the total area of the subject corridor; thus

resulting in a total developable area of approximately 772.17 hectares (1,908.07 acres).


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B. Lot Coverages:Light or General Industrial/Office Business Park Properties:

Subdivisions: 33% lot coverage

Site Specific Development: 22 to 56% lot coverage

Justification:

The site plan for the former Sun Life Financial development proposal was utilized

as a template for industrial and/or office business park development with internal

roads in determing lot coverages.

Lot coverages of developed properties within Highbury (O.R.E.), Forest City,

Innovation and Skyway Industrial Parks and along the VMP were utilized to

determine the above range for site specific industrial and/or office business park

development, along public roads; thus, mirroring the existing market situation.

The lot coverage provisions within Zoning By-law Z.-1 for General and Heavy

Industrial uses proved to be an unrealistic measure in determining potential

developable areas for each phase within the Highway 401 East Employment Land

Corridor. In reality, it is rare to see industrial and/or office business park

development take up the maximum lot coverage provisions within the Zoning By-

law.


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Subsection 3:

Calculating Total Potential Square

Footage of the Highway 401 East

Employment Land Corridor

The calculation for each stage was arrived at by converting the lot coverage of properties (in

hectares) into square feet; thus reflecting the size of future buildings within each stage of

development.

It should be noted that Figure 9 (p. 81) delineates potential industrial and/or office business park

subdivisions and site specific parcels within the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor,

which could be undertaken by both the private and public sectors.

A. Stage 1 Lands:Light or General Industrial/Office Business Park Subdivisions:

Developable Land Area: 40.06 hectares (99 acres)

Lot Coverage: 33%

Potential Developable Square Footage: 1,435,389 SF

Total Potential Developable Square

Footage of Stage 1 Light or General

Industrial/Office Business Park Lands: 1,435,389 SF

Note: Based on the previous Sun Life Financial initiative and the cumulative size of the

properties in question, the Stage 1 lands are anticipated to be developed as a

private sector Light Industrial subdivision.


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B. Stage 2 Lands:Light or General Industrial/Office Business Park Subdivisions:

Developable Land Area: 327 hectares (808.92 acres)

Lot Coverage: 33%


Site Specific Light or General Industrial/Official Business Park Parcels:

Developable Land Area: 9.5 hectares (23.47 acres)

Lot Coverage: 22%

Potential Developable Square Footage: 224,933 SF

Lot Coverage: 56%


Total Potential Developable SquareFootage of Stage 2 Light or General

Industrial/Office Business Park Lands: 11,853,791 to 12,201,415 SF


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C. Stage 3 Lands:Light or General Industrial/Office Business Park Subdivisions:


Lot Coverage: 33%


Site Specific Light or General Industrial/Official Business Park Parcels:


Lot Coverage: 22%


Lot Coverage: 56%



Footage of Stage 3 Light Industrial orGeneral Industrial/Office Business Park Lands: 6,168,525 to 7,180,419 SF


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D. Stage 4 Lands:Light or General Industrial/Office Business Park Subdivisions:


Lot Coverage: 33%



Footage of Stage 4 Light or General

Industrial/Office Business Park Lands: 7,555,898 SF


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E. Total Potential Developable Light or General Industrial/Office Business Park SquareFootage Based on the Above Four Phases:

Subdivisions: 26,133,880 SF

Site Specific Parcels: 879,723 to 2,239,241 SF

Grand Total: 27,013,603 to 28,373,121 SF

Based on the above, a range of27,013,603 SF to 28,373,121 total potential developable

square feet for all forms of industrial and/or office business park uses will be utilized as a

parameter for this analysis.


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Subsection 4:

Total Potential Direct Construction Costs to Develop the

Overall Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor

2011 per Square Foot Cost for 16 ft to

30 ft Clear Height Buildings Assuming

Londons Construction Costs are

$9.00 per Square Foot Less than Torontos: $53.90 - $59.00/SF2122

Total Potential

Developable Square Footage: 27,013,603 SF to 28,373,121 SF

Grand Total: $1.46 Billion to $1.67 Billion (In

Direct Construction Costs)


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Subsection 5:

Calculating Direct Wage/Income Benefits

Of New Construction within the Highway

401 East Employment Land Corridor

A. Direct Construction Costs:

Jobs per $1 Billion in Construction: 12,00023

Direct Construction Costs: $1.46 Billion to $1.67 Billion

Note: Private industry, not the Corporation

of the City of London, would have to

bear the cost of constructing new

buildings within the Highway 401

East Employment Land Corridor.

The only situation where

construction costs could arise for the

Corporation of the City of London is

public-private partnerships.

Number of Full Time Equivalent

Construction Jobs Created: 17,520 to 20,040


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B. Income Benefit from the Creation of Direct Construction Jobs:Direct Construction Jobs Created

Over the Long-Term: 17,520 to 20,040

Average Annual Income for

Construction Trades (2005): $36,30924

Income Benefit from New

Direct Construction Jobs: $636.13 Million to $727.63 Million


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Subsection 6:


Municipal Growth Rates

Londons Current Annual

Projected Growth Rate: 1% as per the March 22, 2011 Committee of the

Whole Growth Planning, Management and Finance

Orientation Presentation25

Region of Waterloos Annual

Growth Rate (15-Year

Average from 1995 to 2010): 1.8%, as per the Region of Waterloos 2010 Year-

End Population and Household Estimates26

City of Guelphs Approximate Annual

Growth Rate from 1993 to 2011: 2%, as per the City of Guelphs 2004 Population

Growth Fact Sheet27


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Subsection 7:

Projected Municipal Employment

Growth Rates Based on Current Studies

City of Londons Anticipated Employment

Growth Rate for 2006 to 2031: 17 jobs per hectare, based on the following:

a) 33,300 jobs in employment growth from 2006 to2031, as per the March 22, 2011 Committee of

the Whole Growth Planning, Management and

Finance Orientation Presentation28;

b) 1,978 hectares in available employment land(serviced and unserviced) for 20+ years, as per

the City of Londons 2006 Official Plan Review

Land Needs Background Study29.

City of GuelphsEmployment Growth Rate: 35 jobs per hectare targeted for future

industrial/business park areas based on historical

trends, as per their 2009 Local Growth Management

Strategy Implications Study30.

Region of Waterloos Target for

Employment Growth within the

City of Kitcheners Southwest Area,

Based on an Employment Land

Area of 440 Hectares: 40 jobs per hectare, as per their 2009 Regional

Transportation Master Plan: Implications of

Southwest Kitchener Development Beyond


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Countryside Line. Most of this area will comprise

Office Business Park uses and the balance will be

Light Industrial31.

Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH)s

Employment Growth Target

For 2006 to 2031: 50 jobs per hectare, as per their 2006 Growth Plan

for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. This high

employment density target is primarily a result of

the intensification policies contained within the

Growth Plan32.


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Subsection 8:

What Londons Employment

Growth Rate Should Be

The Corporation of the City of London should be committed to its municipality growing at a rate

of 2 to 2.5% per annum.

The Corporation should view the City of London as the leading regional centre, west of the

Kitchener CMA.

The Corporation of the City of London should target an employment growth rate of 30 to 40 jobsper hectare for an overall employment land strategy over the long-term.

London growing at a rate of 2 to 2.5% per annum will assist in ensuring that at least 30 jobs per

hectare are being created over the long-term.


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Subsection 9:

Determination of Direct Permanent

Jobs through the Utilization of

An Employment Growth Target

A. Direct Number of Permanent JobsThe approximate direct number of permanent jobs that could be created based on the

previously described employment growth rate target of30 to 40 jobs per hectare, range

between 23,165 and 30,887 for the aforementioned 772.17 hectare land area. This

employment growth rate target would reflect a potential mix of Light Industrial development

(comprising lower densities) and Office Business Park uses (comprising higher densities). In

order for the City of London realize such employment per hectare targets, the Highway 401

East Employment Land Corridor should be intensified, as much as possible, as it will prove

to be the most strategic gateway for attracting new non-residential assessment. It will

represent smart growth and compact urban form from an employment land standpoint and

there will always be a market for such uses, as 48% of all Canadian exports33 and the $2

billion in business that passes along Highway 40134 are not fixed figures and will continue to

rise.


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B. Income Benefit of CreatingDirect Permanent Jobs:

Total Potential Direct JobsCreated Over the Long-Term: 23,165 to 30,887

Average Employment Income Range for a Select List

of Workers Outlined Below, which could Encompass

Uses (i.e. Manufacturing, Logistics, Processing, Research

and Development, Information and Communication

Technology, and Biomedical/Pharmaceutical) within

Future Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor

Industrial and Office Business Park Subdivisions: $30,630 to $81,238 (2005)35

Aerospace Engineers

Chemical Engineers

Computer Engineers

Industrial & Manufacturing

Engineers

Interactive Media Developers

Medical Laboratory

Technicians

Professional Engineers

Recording, Scheduling &

Distribution Workers

Shippers and Receivers

Software Engineers &

Designers


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Traditional

Manufacturing/Processing

Workers

Income Benefit Range from New Direct Jobs: $709.54 Million to

$2.51 Billion

Income Benefit Based on the

Midpoint of the Earnings ($55,934): $1.3 Billion to $1.73 Billion


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Subsection 10:

Municipal Financial Impact

By Way of Property Tax Revenue

The assessed value of existing vacant/agricultural properties within the Highway 401 East

Employment Land Corridor and both vacant and developed industrial properties within Highbury

(O.R.E.), Forest City, Innovation and Skyway Industrial Parks were utilized to derive per acre

assessed values in depicting the change in property tax revenue for the City of London by

opening up and allowing the ultimate development of the subject corridor.

A. Changes in Average Per Acre Assessed Values36Average per Acre Assessed

Value of Lands Designed and

Zoned Agricultural: $3,470 to $9,446 per Acre

Average per Acre Assessed

Value of Lands Designated and

Zoned Light, General or Heavy

Industrial (Not Developed): $34,750 to $96,154 per Acre

Average per Acre Assessed

Value of Lands Designated and

Zoned Light, General or Heavy

Industrial (Developed): $382,050 to $731,652 per Acre


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B. Changes in Average Assessed Values

Based on a total developable land area of 1,908.07 acres (772.17 hectares) and an average

assessed per acre range of $3,470 to $9,446, the total average assessed value of the existing

agricultural Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor is as follows:

$6,621,003 to $18,023,629


assessed per acre range of $34,750 to $96,154, the total average assessed value of a future

designated, zoned, but undeveloped Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor is as

follows:

$66,305,432 to $183,468,563


assessed per acre range of $382,050 to $731,652, the total average assessed value of a future

designated, zoned, and developed Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor is as

follows:

$728,978,143 to $1,396,043,232


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C. Changes in Property Tax Revenue37

Based on a municipal property tax rate of 0.367567% (2010) for farmland, excluding transit,

and a total average assessed value of $6,621,003 to $18,023,629, the average property tax

revenue from the existing agricultural Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor is as

follows:

$24,337 to $66,249 per annum

Based on a municipal property tax rate of 3.089325% (2010) for industrial taxable vacant

and/or excess land (new construction), including transit and a total average assessed value

of $66,305,432 to $183,468,563, the average property tax revenue from a future designated,

zoned, but undeveloped Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor is as follows:

$2,048,390 to $5,667,940 per annum

Based on a municipal property tax rate of 4.752807% (2010) for industrial taxable (new

construction), including transit and a total average assessed value of $728,978,143 to

$1,396,043,232, the average property tax revenue from a future designated, zoned, and

developed Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor is as follows:

$34,646,924 to $66,351,240 per

annum without factoring in rebates


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Subsection 11:

Assessing Spin-Off Effects Originating

From the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor

As noted above, opening up the Highway 401 East Corridor for employment growth would result

in further jobs, increased income, assessment, and property tax revenue for the City of London.

With new firms being recruited and increased economic activity originating from the Highway

401 East Employment Land Corridor, there would be further interaction among industries/firms

within the region. More inputs being purchased at the local level, along further consumer

expenditures, would result in increased spin-offs resulting from employment growth within the

subject corridor. By London directing its growth within the subject corridor, the geographic scale

of economic activity would increase beyond the region. Because Highway 401 is the most

significant trade corridor in Ontario, the promotion of a diverse range of employment

opportunities within the subject corridor would increase the scope and geographic scale of

economic interaction among different industries/firms and garner further spin-offs. This would

have positive implications on the overall well-being of London and will assist in sustaining and

further diversifying the economy over the long-term. A detailed analysis of spin-off

employment/effects could be assessed in a later report. The types of multipliers that could part of

this additional report are as follows:

a) Output multiplier, which provides an estimate of the total increase in sales for thestudy area38;

b) Employment multiplier, which measures the total change in employment within amunicipality or region, resulting from an initial change in employment of an

exporting industry39;

c) Income multiplier, which measures the total increase in income in the local economyresulting from a one dollar increase in income received by workers in the exporting

industry40;


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d) Value added multiplier, which provides an estimate of the additional value added tothe product as a result of this economy activity (i.e. employee compensation, indirect

business taxes, proprietary and other property income)41.


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Subsection 12:

Potential Population Growth Based

On New Employment Within the

Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor

The City of Londons Planning Department projects a 23,600 increase in employment within the

municipality from 2006 to 2031 at an average annual employment growth rate of only 0.8%; thus

resulting in Londons labour force increasing from 202,600 to 226,20042. Population growth in

London faces a similar trend, with a 66,000 increase projected over the same time period at an

average annual growth rate of only 1%; thus resulting in Londons population increasing from

352,400 to 435,00043.

The Conference Board of Canadas forecasts are similar to those of the Planning Department, but

from the perspective of a 4-year period for the London CMA. A 12,000 increase in employment

is projected within the London CMA from 2011 to 2015 at an average annual employment

growth rate of only 1.25%; thus resulting in the London CMAs current labour force increasing

from 243,000 to 255,000 within this 4-year period44. Similar to the case of the municipality, an

average population growth rate of only 0.7% is anticipated for the London CMA; thus resulting

in the current population of 497,000 increasing to 511,000 by 201545.

The City of Londons current labour of 202,600 represents 55% of the municipalitys population

of 368,40046. As a result, if 23,165 to 30,887 direct jobs related to industrial and office business

park uses, potentially originating from the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor were

to be added to the labour force and 55% of Londons population would continue to be part of the

labour force, the municipalitys population could increase by 42,118 to 56,158. As previously

outlined, employing targets of 30 to 40 jobs per hectare and 2% to 2.5% annual growth would

result in the above figures being achievable.


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Subsection 13:


Londons Real GDP Figures

Promoting employment growth within the Highway 401 East Corridor will be essential in

achieving the above targets, given the Real GDP growth figures for the London CMA within the

Conference Board of Canadas Winter 2011 Metropolitan Outlook publication, noted in Figure

10 (p. 82).

Londons numbers in population and economic growth will be among the lowest in Canada and

the overall Real GDP growth figure and ranking for the 2006 to 2015 period indicate that the

London CMA has not been performing to the standards of CMAs of similar size and diversity,and both provincial and national trends, as can be noted in Figure 11 (p. 83).

When compared to CMAs of similar size (i.e. Windsor, Kitchener, and Hamilton), London has

not fared well amidst the current economic recovery, as noted in Figure 12 (p. 84).


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Subsection 14:

Missed Opportunities to

Facilitate the Recovery of

Londons Economy

An argument can be made that CMAs, such as Windsor and Kitchener have been experiencing

favourable Real GDP growth rates due to the funds they have been able to obtain from the upper

levels of government for infrastructure projects. The Kitchener CMA, which takes into account

Cambridge and Waterloo, lobbied that projects valued at a total of $110.86 million be part of the

Infrastructure Stimulus Fund47. Furthermore, the Kitchener CMA recently received $265 million

from the federal government to help fund their approximate $800 million light rail system, which

could be operational by 201548.

In comparison, London was able to secure funding for projects valued at a total of $98.24

million, as part of the Infrastructure Stimulus Fund49. One of the most significant infrastructure

projects the City has been undertaking is the London International Airport Cargo Hub. The City

initially secured $8 million dollars from the federal government50 and expanded the terminal at a

cost of $6.5 million51. While London did increase infrastructure spending from the course of

2009 to date, which assisted in increasing construction output, large-scale projects that could

have been geared towards providing the municipality with long-term economic stability and

growth were not pursued. The most notable example of this is how the City of London spent the

funds they received from the Federal Gas Tax Fund in 2009. The $21.87 million share the City

of London received, which was double the 2008 figure, was spent primarily on bike lanes and

several road improvements52. Based on the analysis of other centres, these funds and the pursuit

of more substantive upper level governmental infrastructure monies could have been utilized to

complete major road works, bridges and municipal servicing that would have long-term job

creation and economic stimulating effects, providing city-wide benefits.

Windsor was able to secure upper governmental funding for the largest infrastructural project

ever seen in their overall region, the Windsor-Essex Parkway53. It is anticipated that the project

will create 12,000 direct construction jobs54. Most importantly, it will serve as the new key


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gateway for Midwestern U.S. trade and distribution of goods, support existing industry, attract

new investment, and create business opportunities within the region55.

Hamilton has been positively affected by the Red Hill Valley Parkway, an approximate 7kilometre expressway, which extends from the Lincoln Alexander Parkway to the Queen

Elizabeth Way (QEW). Almost half of the $245 million municipal project was funded by the

provincial government (i.e. $120 million)56. It serves a key node for facilitating the distribution

of goods from Southern Ontario to the Northeastern U.S. and has created opportunities for

further employment growth in the Hamilton CMA.

The Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor could serve a similar function to the above

referenced expressway projects, enabling London to experience the aforementioned direct

benefits. Because London is more strategically positioned to serve the Midwestern U.S., GGH

and Northeastern U.S., the Highway 401 East Employment Land Corridor will prove to be a

more viable initiative for the local economy than in the case of the Windsor-Essex Parkway

because it will provide significant future employment lands, rather than in large part being

bounded by existing development, as in the case in the case of Windsor and Hamilton.

Based on the above, the London CMAs 2010 and 2011 Real GDP growth figures demonstrate

that the region missed out on key infrastructural projects to not only stimulate the economy, but

to work towards planning its long-term stability. As per the Conference Board of Canadas

analysis of 27 Canadian CMAs, it can be argued that many have been better prepared than

London to recover from the 2008 economic downturn, as a result of the fact that they took

advantage of opportunities to invest in growth.


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Subsection 15:

Economic Analysis of London and

Identification of Opportunities to

Improve In Key Sectors

The following provides a breakdown of key economic sectors where the City of London

performed at middling to poor levels, as per the Conference Board of Canadas City Magnets

Report Cards, prior to the 2008 economic downturn:

a) Economy, where the London CMA was ranked 16th of 27 Canadian CMAs in 200757.GDP per capita represents the broadest measure of economic activity and is

utilized on a comparative basis to the relative wealth of other municipalities58.

London has continued to experience middling GDP per capita and growth rates

since 2006, with an overall grade of C5960. If this situation is not rectified, it will

have a long-term negative effect on Londons prosperity and well-being of its

citizens.

London should take into account the fact that municipalities with stronger GDP

growth rates and employment figures generate more work opportunities and

increase their attractiveness to migrants61.

b) Education, where the London CMA was ranked 17th of 27 Canadian CMAs in 200762.

This ranking and grade of C should not have been the case, as London is home to

two internationally recognized post-secondary educational institutions, the

University of Western Ontario and Fanshawe College, which continue to provide

the municipality a competitive advantage in this economic sphere, opposite other

centres. However, this ranking reflects the fact that London has been poor in

retaining graduates, a fact that will be further exposed in discussing Londons

ranking in the sphere of Society, as the proportion of the local population over

the age of 25 with bachelor and advanced degrees is decreasing.


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c) Society, where the London CMA was ranked 16th of 27 Canadian CMAs in 200763.London has been subject to losing its share of population aged 25 to 34. The

retention of this demographic group has been middling to poor with a grade of Cand ranking of 31st of 50 Canadian cities in 201064.

London should take into account the fact that municipalities retaining and

attracting this demographic group, which represents the mobile and educated

heart of the creative class, allows them to be better positioned for the future65.

d) Innovation, where the London CMA was ranked 14th of 27 Canadian CMAs in200766.

Innovation remained middling to poor from 2007 to 2010. In the latter year, it was

particularly middling in the level of productivity, receiving a grade of C and poor

in productivity growth with a grade of D (i.e. ranked 27th of 50 Canadian cities)67.

London has not been adept in making gains in wealth creation; thus, it should be

cognisant of the fact that productivity enables a local municipality to foster

economic growth and purchasing power for households68.

e) Housing, where the London CMA was ranked 12th of 27 Canadian CMAs in 200769.Growth in residential building permits has experienced a significant decline since

2006, from receiving a grade of A from 2002 to 200670, to declining by 35%

between late 2006 and late 200871. Despite increasing by approximately 20%

from late 2008 to late 200972, housing starts are now suffering a 15% decline,

according to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC),

compared to the initial four months of 201073. Housing starts in the London CMA

are forecasted to decline by another 20% from 2012 to 201574.

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