Developing ElectricValue Added

December 17, 2010

Justin Bean

Katie Dunn

Rudi Halbright

Obrie Hostetter

Tim McLaughlin

Developing Electric Value Added

Developing Electric Value Added

Developing Electric Value Added

Developing Electric Value Added

Developing Electric Value AddedDeveloping Electric Value Added

Outline

Developing Electric Value Added

Berkeley’s Climate Action Plan

Developing Electric Value Added

• 80% Reduction by 2050 and 33% Reduction by 2020

• Potential to Save to 140,000 Metric Tons of CO2

Developing Electric Value Added

Who is Berkeley?

• Population 107,000• 67% have bachelors degree+• Berkeley FIRST• PACE

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Technology Overview

EV Vs PHEV

ChargingLevel 1 120 Volts 8 to 20 hours

Level 2 220 to 240 Volts 4 to 6 hours

Faster Charger (DC) 480 Volts 10 to 30 Minutes

Developing Electric Value Added

Market Overview

• 841,000 EV & PHEV’s by 2015• Favorable Federal and State Policies

• 14.4B – ARRA • Consumer Tax Credits

$7,500 fed tax credit $5,000 CA tax credit $2,000 fed tax credit for charging

Developing Electric Value Added

Market Overview- Hybrids are a predictor of EV sales

Developing Electric Value Added

Market Overview- EV Demand in Berkeley

• 2.8% of vehicle registrations are Hybrids• Toyota - 500 PHEV’s on waiting list• Nissan – Sold out!

Developing Electric Value Added

Focus of other cities

Portland

Key Focus

All car commuters

Key Strategies

Easy access to charging

stations and permitting

Leverage municipal EV fleet

to set precedent for

adoption

New York

Key Focus

Early adopters only

Key Strategies

Commercial parking

garages

Not offering incentives, only

supporting demand

San Francisco

Key Focus

Long-term integrated

transportation plan

Key Strategies

Public parking in dense

areas

Alliances with car share

programs

Utilize existing assets

Developing Electric Value Added

Strategy Canvas

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SWOT Highlights

Strengths•Progressive Berkeley residents•CAP goals•Measure R•Small city: minimal EV infrastructure big impact

Weaknesses•Barriers to residential charging•Late for grants•Funding

Threats•Other alternative fuel vehicles might prevail•CoB disconnected from Bay Area corridor•Charging technology not completely standardized

Opportunities•2nd mover to learn from other cities•Can be leading city for range of options•Funding available•Bay area network

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Future Scenarios

Developing Electric Value Added

Recommendations

Facilitate EV usage for early adopters• Charging strategies for EV-driver profiles• Fast-track permitting• Carshare and commercial parking lot charging• Secure grant monies and incentives ASAP

Within 3 months

Developing Electric Value Added

• Monitor Station usage for future siting

• Install opportunity charging stations in shopping districts and high-traffic areas

• Develop transportation integration strategies

• Encourage use of the entire transportation system

Within 3 to 6 monthsRecommendations

Developing Electric Value Added

Evaluate & Educate

Within 18 months and on-going

Move 2nd• Move 2nd: reduce risks and

costly mistakes

• Monitor other cities’ solutions

• Disseminate information online and through community

• Showcase innovative pilot projects, including educational components

for the community

Recommendations

Developing Electric Value Added

Not recommended at this time

Challenges: •Uncertain commitment to charging technology •Permitting issues•No clear solutions in other cities•Large, complicated investment•Lack of data

Residential Curbside Charging

Developing Electric Value Added

Short-term recommendations•Push EV parking & charging policies

•Provide information about other charging options

•Encourage communities to install charging stations on private property

•Encourage permittable owner-initiated solutions

•Facilitate relationships between private owners of charging stations and EV owners

Residential Curbside Charging

Developing Electric Value AddedDeveloping Electric Value Added

Our TaskBuild low-risk model that is financially and environmentally sustainable.

Four ModelA. Grid PoweredB. ClimateSmartC. PV PurchaseD. PV Lease

Constraints• Lack of data• Limited budget

Financial Analysis: Charging Station Network

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Finding WACC

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WACC = [ D/V * (1-T) * Rd ] + [ E/V * Re ]

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Municipal Bonds•10 yr•AA•Callable•Revenue

Finding WACC

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3 Steps:1. Input assumptions2. Compare scenarios

NPV IRR Payback Capital Outlay

3. Make conclusion

The Tool

Developing Electric Value AddedDeveloping Electric Value Added

3 4 Steps:1. Input assumptions2. Compare scenarios

NPV IRR Payback Capital Outlay

3. Make conclusion4. Monitor,

reassess assumptions

X

The Tool

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NPV (thousands)

IRRCapital

Investment(thousands)

Payback Period

(years)

A: Grid Energy $490 103% $49 1.2

B: ClimateSmart

$486 102% $49 1.1

C: PV Purchase $190 5% $1,120 10.0

D: PV Lease $593 79% $80 1.4

Our Calculations

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A Visual Comparison

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A Visual Comparison: Flipped

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Variables • daily demand• charging price

Sensitivity Analysis: IRR

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Our TaskBuild low risk model that isfinancially andenvironmentally sustainable.

Recommended ScenarioA. BaselineB. ClimateSmartC. PV PurchaseD. PV Lease*

*Invest in charging stations, monitor real demand, then move forward.

Financial Analysis Summary

Developing Electric Value Added

In Sum

Start now•Grant money for stations•Appease early adopters

Emergent Strategy•Monitor other cities•Monitor local demand

Systems ApproachEVs are not THE answer but a part of it