Citizenship After the Nation Citizenship After the Nation State (CANS)State (CANS)

The United KingdomThe United Kingdom

ContextContext

The choice of regionsThe choice of regions Identity Identity Institutional asymmetryInstitutional asymmetry WealthWealth

What a comparison of Scotland and Wales What a comparison of Scotland and Wales can tell us (and what it can’t)can tell us (and what it can’t)

DataData

FieldworkFieldwork ICM, telephoneICM, telephone

SampleSample Scotland 914Scotland 914 Wales 900Wales 900

Operationalisation: DVsOperationalisation: DVs Inter-regional solidarityInter-regional solidarity

Social solidarity (affinity)Social solidarity (affinity) Fiscal solidarity (state intervention, transfers)Fiscal solidarity (state intervention, transfers)

Political participationPolitical participation Perceived importance across levelsPerceived importance across levels Actual turnout (region, state)Actual turnout (region, state)

Regional policyRegional policy Regional policy control (5 areas)Regional policy control (5 areas) State-wide policy uniformity (4 areas)State-wide policy uniformity (4 areas)

Operationalisation: IVsOperationalisation: IVs

IdentityIdentity Attachment, pride, Linz/MorenoAttachment, pride, Linz/Moreno

Regional institutional authorityRegional institutional authority Perceived importance of decisions, regional Perceived importance of decisions, regional

influence (current and desired), who more influence (current and desired), who more concerned, independence scaleconcerned, independence scale

WealthWealth Current, prospective assessmentsCurrent, prospective assessments

HypothesesHypotheses1. Individuals with a greater sense of regional identity will 1. Individuals with a greater sense of regional identity will

feel a decreased sense of inter-regional solidarity (in feel a decreased sense of inter-regional solidarity (in terms of affinity and fiscal solidarity)terms of affinity and fiscal solidarity)

2. Individuals in regions with greater institutional autonomy 2. Individuals in regions with greater institutional autonomy will place greater emphasis on participation at the will place greater emphasis on participation at the regional level, relative to the state level, and have regional level, relative to the state level, and have greater tolerance for regional policy control and greater tolerance for regional policy control and divergencedivergence

3. Individuals in wealthier regions will display decreased 3. Individuals in wealthier regions will display decreased

support for state-wide intervention and fiscal transfers to support for state-wide intervention and fiscal transfers to poorer regions, and likewise will be more tolerant of poorer regions, and likewise will be more tolerant of regional policy divergence regional policy divergence

How unique are Scotland and Wales?How unique are Scotland and Wales?Independent variables (% agree)Independent variables (% agree)

ScotlandScotland WalesWales

Region is nationRegion is nation 8383 7070

Attachment to regionAttachment to region 8080 6969

Regional level most concernedRegional level most concerned 8181 8282

Regional level should have most Regional level should have most influenceinfluence

8282 7070

Want more powers/independenceWant more powers/independence 5959 5656

How unique are Scotland and Wales?How unique are Scotland and Wales?Dependent variables (% agree)Dependent variables (% agree)

ScotlandScotland WalesWales

Affinity to citizens in regionAffinity to citizens in region 5050 4646

State should interveneState should intervene 7474 8383

Importance of regional votingImportance of regional voting 6565 5050

Voted last regional electionVoted last regional election 7878 6666

ResultsResults

Territorial scale effectsTerritorial scale effects Distinction among indicatorsDistinction among indicators

Social not fiscal solidaritySocial not fiscal solidarity Perceived importance of voting but not actual Perceived importance of voting but not actual

participationparticipation Devolution paradoxDevolution paradox Relative importance of IVsRelative importance of IVs

Scale effects: social solidarity IScale effects: social solidarity IAffinityNeighbourhood

AffinityRegion

AffinityState

AffinityEurope

Relative affinity

Attachcity Sc: .346**W: . 427**

.208**

.366**.122**.177**

.118**

.126**.050.143**

Attachlocal .312**.329**

.261**

.344**.168**.192**

.170**

.183**.048.112**

Attachregion .195**.261**

.359**

.448**.058.074*

.051

.113**.245**.278**

Attachstate .184**.155**

.101**

.100**.365**.311**

.148**

.127**-.261**-.196**

AtachEU .112**.048

.082**

.090**.271**.204**

.443**

.407**-.188**-.105**

Relativeattach -.052.054

.121**

.214**-.307**-.198**

-.104**-.020

.380**

.352**

Scale effects: social solidarity IIScale effects: social solidarity IIAffinityNeighbourhood

AffinityRegion

AffinityState

AffinityEurope

Relative affinity

Importance local decisions Sc: .218**W: .197**

.171**

.258**.158**.116**

.194**

.161**-.013.103**

Importance regional decisions .150**.141**

.246**

.254**.119**.082*

.204**

.160*.081**.133**

Importance state decisions .068*.082*

.106**

.135**.272**.215**

.231**

.183**-.171**-.084*

Importance EU decisions .077*.071*

.038

.097**.161**.171**

.338**

.321**-.121**-.077*

Relative importance of decisions .075*.057

.120**

.117**-.158**-.124**

-.042-.020

.241**

.207**

Scale effects: participation IScale effects: participation IImportance

local voteImportance

region vote

Importance state vote

Importance EU vote

Relative importance

Attachcity Sc: .173**W: .277**

.085**

.206**.156**.185**

.085**

.138**-.083**.033

Attachlocal .231**.271**

.154**

.250**.176**.194**

.103**

.181**-.030.069*

Attachregion .170**.261**

.158**

.296**.098**.063

.050

.136**.059.239**

Attachstate .134**.117**

.055

.033.268**.190**

.084**

.110**-.250**-.143**

AttachEU .086**.094**

.082*

.168**.138**.197**

.327**

.431**-.066*-.012

Relativeattach -.021.087**

.044

.181**-.183**-.112**

-.046.009.

.258**

.285**

Scale effects: participation IIScale effects: participation IIImportance local

voteImportance region vote

Importance state vote

Importance EU vote

Relative importance

Importance local decisions

Sc: .547**W: .536**

.456**

.458**..354**.386**

.364**

.332**.108**.102**

Importance regional decisions

.466**

.389**.623**.571**

.366**

.338**.402**.376**

.278**

.263**

Importance state decisions

.394**

.303**.380**.262**

.583**

.543**.422**.363**

-.234**-.242**

Importance EU decisions

.371**

.294**.366**.343**

.372**

.364**.655**.599**

-.010.010

Relative importance of decisions

.045

.086*.204**.304**

-.231**-.194**

-.053.019

.490**

.486**

Devolution paradoxDevolution paradoxScotlandScotland WalesWales

Region should have most controlRegion should have most control 7575 7272

Regional policy control on:Regional policy control on:

EducationEducation 6767 5555

HealthHealth 5757 5454

CrimeCrime 4848 3232

UnemploymentUnemployment 3939 3030

EnvironmentEnvironment 3939 3737

Devolution paradoxDevolution paradox

Regional Policy control scale

Policy uniformity scale

Relative attachment .255**.211**

-.155**-.182**

Region should influence

.343**

.340**-.284**-.291**

Region more concerned

.267**

.244**-.167**-.154**

Independence scale .379**.341**

-.376**-.380**

Regional policy variationRegional policy variation

Education Health Unemployment Crime Environment

Scotland .300** .279** .223** .229** .189**

Wales .273** .253** .266** .229** .189**

State-wide policy uniformityState-wide policy uniformity

Tuition Elderly Young offenders

Unemp’t

Scotland -.216** -.200** -.231** -.248**

Wales -.252** -.221** -.190** -.240**

Comparing independent variablesComparing independent variables

Scale effects present with identity, Scale effects present with identity, institutional authorityinstitutional authority

Wealth less useful, even for understanding Wealth less useful, even for understanding fiscal autonomy …fiscal autonomy …

Fiscal solidarityFiscal solidarityState should State should

interveneinterveneTransfer money to Transfer money to

poorer regionspoorer regions

Region better off Region better off nownow

Sc: -.031Sc: -.031W: -.107**W: -.107**

-.008-.008-.041-.041

Region better off Region better off futurefuture

-.085*-.085*-.061-.061

.026.026-.028-.028

Multi-variate modelMulti-variate model

Impact of demographic variablesImpact of demographic variables Established impact on certain attitudes and Established impact on certain attitudes and

behaviourbehaviour Likely interaction with research questionLikely interaction with research question

Independent impact of identity, institutions, Independent impact of identity, institutions, wealthwealth

Analysis on 6 DV indicatorsAnalysis on 6 DV indicators

Multi-variate resultsMulti-variate resultsAffinityAffinity FiscalFiscal Attitudes re Attitudes re

participationparticipationParticipationParticipation Regional Regional

policy policy controlcontrol

Policy Policy uniformityuniformity

AgeAgeGenderGenderEthnic minorityEthnic minorityReligionReligionEducationEducationMarital statusMarital statusBirthBirth

.044.044

.057.057

.003.003-.044-.044-.047-.047.036.036.019.019

.064*.064*-.003-.003.005.005.011.011.025.025-.003-.003.022.022

-.018-.018.015.015-.024-.024-.008-.008-.016-.016-.008-.008-.036-.036

.308**.308**

.029.029-.005-.005.075**.075**.131**.131**.079**.079**.027.027

.167**.167**

.007.007

.019.019

.007.007

.040.040

.027.027-.045-.045

-.006-.006-.017-.017-.075**-.075**.001.001.021.021.004.004.047.047

AttachmentAttachmentPridePrideDecisionsDecisionsRegion should influenceRegion should influenceIndependenceIndependencePerceived wealthPerceived wealthScotlandScotland

.245**.245**

.130**.130**

.070**.070**

.095**.095**

.084**.084**

.005.005

.007.007

-.085**-.085**.057.057-.018-.018-.049-.049-.043-.043-.086**-.086**-.062*-.062*

.097**.097**

.038.038

.368**.368**

.038.038

.159**.159**

.015.015

.055*.055*

-.007-.007.105**.105**.098**.098**.013.013.065*.065*.038.038.088**.088**

.109**.109**

.013.013

.145**.145**

.157**.157**

.177**.177**

.107**.107**

.034.034

-.062**-.062**-.020-.020-.038-.038-.078**-.078**-.264**-.264**-.051-.051-.121**-.121**

Adj RAdj R22 .19.19 .04.04 .28.28 .13.13 .21.21 .16.16

Multi-variate analysisMulti-variate analysis

1.1. Impact of demographic variablesImpact of demographic variables2.2. Place mattersPlace matters3.3. Ranking of IVsRanking of IVs4.4. Conceptualisation of IVs and DVsConceptualisation of IVs and DVs5.5. An incomplete model?An incomplete model?