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CIS COUNTRIES WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTSFOREWORD ..................................................................................................................... 9 1.METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................... 11 1.1. 1.2.Methodology ............................................................................................................ 11 Limitations ................................................................................................................ 142.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................... 153.CIS COUNTRIES RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE .................................... 18 3.1. RES Regulations and Directives of European Union (EU) affecting CIS countries ... 18 3.1.1. Precedent regulations ....................................................................................... 18 3.1.2. EU 2030 Framework for climate and energy policies ....................................... 19 3.1.3. EU Energy Roadmap 2050................................................................................. 22 3.1.4. TWENTIES Project ............................................................................................. 25 3.1.5. European Technology Platform for Wind Energy (TPWind) ............................. 26 3.1.6. SET Plan ............................................................................................................. 27 3.2. RES Strategy for CIS countries developed by UN ECE .............................................. 31 3.2.1. Development of educational activity and personnel training .......................... 32 3.3. Renewable energy mandatory targets for CIS countries ......................................... 33 3.4. RUSTEC ..................................................................................................................... 344.CIS COUNTRIES ENERGY MARKET ......................................................................... 36 4.1.General electricity market information ................................................................... 365.WORLD WIND ENERGY MARKET .......................................................................... 416.EUROPEAN WIND ENERGY MARKET ..................................................................... 487.CIS COUNTRIES WIND RESOURCE POTENTIAL AND MAPPING ............................... 568.CIS COUNTRIES WIND ENERGY MARKET ............................................................... 59 8.1. 8.2.9.Market overview ...................................................................................................... 59 Country attractiveness index for wind energy investments .................................... 61 COUNTRY PROFILES ............................................................................................. 629.1. ARMENIA .................................................................................................................. 62 9.1.1. Armenia Wind Energy Market Overview .......................................................... 62 9.1.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .... 63 9.1.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 64 9.1.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework .............................................................. 65 9.1.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions ............................................ 67 9.2. AZERBAIJAN .............................................................................................................. 71 9.2.1. Azerbaijan Wind Energy Market Overview ....................................................... 71 9.2.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .... 73 9.2.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 743 4. CIS COUNTRIES WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 2018 9.2.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework .............................................................. 75 9.2.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions ............................................ 78 9.3. BELARUS ................................................................................................................... 80 9.3.1. Belarus Wind Energy Market Overview ............................................................ 80 9.3.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .... 81 9.3.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 82 9.3.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework .............................................................. 83 9.3.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions ............................................ 86 9.4. KAZAKHSTAN ............................................................................................................ 88 9.4.1. Kazakhstan Investment Climate........................................................................ 88 9.4.2. Electricity Market Structure .............................................................................. 88 9.4.3. Kazakhstan Wind Energy Market Overview ..................................................... 92 9.4.4. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .... 96 9.4.5. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 98 9.4.6. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 102 9.4.7. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 105 9.5. KYRGYZSTAN........................................................................................................... 109 9.5.1. Kyrgyzstan Wind Energy Market Overview .................................................... 109 9.5.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 109 9.5.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 110 9.5.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 111 9.5.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 112 9.6. MOLDOVA .............................................................................................................. 114 9.6.1. Moldova Wind Energy Market Overview ....................................................... 114 9.6.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 115 9.6.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 116 9.6.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 117 9.6.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 117 9.7. RUSSIA .................................................................................................................... 120 9.7.1. Russia Wind Energy Market Overview............................................................ 120 9.7.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 124 9.7.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 128 9.7.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 130 9.7.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 141 9.8. TAJIKISTAN.............................................................................................................. 146 9.8.1. Tajikistan Wind Energy Market Overview ...................................................... 146 9.8.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 147 9.8.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 148 9.8.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 149 9.8.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 151 9.9. TURKMENISTAN ..................................................................................................... 1524 5. CIS COUNTRIES WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 2018 9.9.1. Turkmenistan Wind Energy Market Overview ............................................... 152 9.9.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 153 9.9.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 154 9.9.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 155 9.9.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 155 9.10. UZBEKISTAN............................................................................................................ 157 9.10.1. Uzbekistan Wind Energy Market Overview .................................................... 157 9.10.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 158 9.10.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 161 9.10.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 162 9.10.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 164 9.11. UKRAINE ................................................................................................................. 166 9.11.1. Ukraine Wind Energy Market Overview ......................................................... 166 9.11.2. Renewable Energy Incentives and Generation Capacity Mandatory Target .. 168 9.11.3. Major deals, M&A activity, major planned, development and operating wind projects 170 9.11.4. RES Legal and Regulatory Framework ............................................................ 172 9.11.5. Key Stakeholders, Organizations and Institutions .......................................... 180 10. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SUPPORT SCHEMES IN CIS COUNTRIES. FEED-IN TARIFFS AND GREEN CERTIFICATES .............................................................................. 184 11. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MANDATORY CAPACITY GENERATION TARGETS IN CIS COUNTRIES .................................................................................................................. 185 12.ELECTRICITY GRID NETWORK IN CIS COUNTRIES ................................................. 18712.1. Transmission System Operators (TSOs) ................................................................ 188 12.2. Distribution System Operators (DSOs) .................................................................. 192 12.3. Grid connection constraints ................................................................................... 193 13.SMART GRID DEVELOPMENT IN CIS COUNTRIES ................................................. 19513.1. Smart Grid and Super Smart Grid Concept ............................................................ 195 13.2. Smart grids development in CIS countries ............................................................. 197 13.3. Smart grids development in the CEE & SEE countries ........................................... 199 14. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE. PROJECT DEVELOPERS AND INVESTORS IN CIS WIND ENERGY MARKET ......................................................................................................... 203 15. EPC AND O&M PROVIDERS, EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS AND CONSULTANTS IN CIS WIND ENERGY MARKET .......................................................................................... 207 16.SWOT ANALYSIS OF CIS WIND ENERGY MARKET................................................. 21417.RISKS ABOUT WIND INVESTMENTS IN CIS COUNTRIES ........................................ 21817.1. Risks Associated with the Wind Energy Industry in CIS countries ......................... 218 17.1.1. Regulatory Risk................................................................................................ 218 17.1.2. Competition within the Wind Energy Industry ............................................... 218 17.1.3. Public Attitudes towards Wind Energy Projects ............................................. 219 17.1.4. Emerging Market Risk ..................................................................................... 2205 6. CIS COUNTRIES WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 2018 17.1.5. Insurance Risk ................................................................................................. 220 17.1.6. Force Majeure Risk ......................................................................................... 220 17.2. Risks Associated with the Investors Finance Arrangements ................................. 220 17.2.1. Asset Sale Risk ................................................................................................. 220 17.2.2. Borrowing Risk ................................................................................................ 221 17.2.3. Foreign Exchange Risk ..................................................................................... 221 17.3. Risks Associated with the Development of Wind Energy Plants ........................... 222 17.3.1. Variability in the Source of Wind Energy ........................................................ 222 17.3.2. Development of the Project and Construction Risk ....................................... 222 17.3.3. Capital Cost Risk .............................................................................................. 222 17.3.4. Permits ............................................................................................................ 223 17.3.5. Land Options ................................................................................................... 223 17.3.6. Construction .................................................................................................... 224 17.3.7. Dependency on Suppliers ............................................................................... 224 17.3.8. Technology Risk............................................................................................... 224 17.3.9. Operation and Maintenance Risk ................................................................... 225 17.3.10. Market Price of Electricity ........................................................................... 225 18. INVESTMENT TRENDS, POTENTIAL AND OPPORTUNITIES IN CIS WIND ENERGY MARKET....................................................................................................................... 226 19.CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................... 22820.LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................... 23021.REFERENCES ...................................................................................................... 23222.DISCLAIMER ....................................................................................................... 23523.APPENDIX I. WIND MAPS OF EUROPE AND CIS COUNTRIES................................. 236LIST OF MAPS, CHARTS AND TABLES MAP 1: The synchronous grids of Europe (IPS/UPS is shown in orange, UCTE is equal to ENTSO-E) ................................................................................................................................. 37 MAP 2: Interconnection Grid Map CEE and CIS countries, ENTSO-E, 2012............................ 39 MAP 3: Wind resource potential of CIS countries. Mean wind speed at 80 m., 3TIER 2011 . 57 MAP 4: Wind Resource Map of Armenia, NREL 2003 ............................................................. 63 MAP 5: Wind Resource Map of Azerbaijan, 3TIER 2009......................................................... 72 MAP 6: Wind Resource Map of Belarus, 3TIER 2009 .............................................................. 80 MAP 7: Electricity Grid Map of Kazakhstan, KEGOC 2011 ...................................................... 89 MAP 8: Wind Resource Map of Kazakhstan, 3TIER 2009 ....................................................... 93 MAP 9: Kazakhstan Wind Atlas, Parsons Brinckerhoff 2011 .................................................. 94 MAP 10: Wind Resource Map of Moldova, 3TIER 2009 ....................................................... 114 MAP 11: Wind Resource Map of Russia, 3TIER 2009 ........................................................... 121 MAP 12: Murmansk and Arkhangelsk Wind Map, NREL 2002 ............................................. 122 MAP 13: Wind Resource Map of Tajikistan, 3TIER 2009 ...................................................... 146 MAP 14: Wind Resource Map of Turkmenistan, 3TIER 2009 ............................................... 1526 7. CIS COUNTRIES WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 2018 MAP 15: Wind Resource Map of Uzbekistan, 3TIER 2009 .................................................... 158 MAP 16: Wind Resource Map of Ukraine, 3TIER 2009 ......................................................... 167 MAP 17: Smart Grid Projects Map in Europe 2013, JRC ....................................................... 202 Map 18: Mean 80-m wind speeds in Europe and CIS countries from Stanford University .. 236 Map 19: Global Mean Wind Speed at 80 m, 3TIER Inc. ........................................................ 237 Map 20: European Wind Atlas, Ris DTU National Laboratory, Denmark ........................... 238Chart 1: Technology Road Map for Wind Energy Development, SET Plan ............................. 28 Chart 2: World Total Installed Cumulative Wind Capacity 1997 - 2012, WWEA .................... 41 Chart 3: World New Installed Wind Capacity 1998 - 2012, WWEA ........................................ 43 Chart 4: Top 10 Countries by Growth Rate (in %). Markets bigger than 200 MW, WWEA 2012 ........................................................................................................................................ 44 Chart 5: Shares in New Installed Wind Capacity by Continents (in %), WWEA 2012 ............. 45 Chart 6: World Cumulative Wind Power Installations in GW for 1997 - 2020, WWEA .......... 46 Chart 7: EU Member States Shares for New Installed Wind Capacity in 2012. Total 11,566 MW; EWEA .............................................................................................................................. 48 Chart 8: Share of New Power Capacity Installations in EU. Total 44,601 MW. EWEA, 2012 . 50 Chart 9: Share of New Renewable Power Capacity Installations in the EU in MW. Total 30,968. EWEA, 2012 ................................................................................................................ 51 Chart 10: Installed Power Generating Capacity in MW and RES share in the EU for 2000 2012, EWEA ............................................................................................................................. 52 Chart 11: Net Electricity Generating Installations in the EU for 2000 - 2012 in GW, EWEA .. 53 Chart 12: Annual Wind Power Installations in the EU in GW for 2000 - 2012, EWEA ............ 53 Chart 13: Cumulative Wind Power Installations in the EU in GW for 2000 - 2012, EWEA ..... 54 Chart 14: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in CIS countries in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ................................................................................................... 60 Chart 15: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Armenia in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ....................................................................................................... 65 Chart 16: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Azerbaijan in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ................................................................................................... 75 Chart 17: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Belarus in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ....................................................................................................... 83 Chart 18: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Kazakhstan in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ................................................................................................. 101 Chart 19: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Kyrgyzstan in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ................................................................................................. 110 Chart 20: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Moldova in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ..................................................................................................... 116 Chart 21: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Russia in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ..................................................................................................... 129 Chart 22: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Tajikistan in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ..................................................................................................... 148 Chart 23: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Turkmenistan in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ........................................................................................ 154 Chart 24: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Uzbekistan in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ................................................................................................. 1617 8. CIS COUNTRIES WIND MARKET: OUTLOOK 2013 2018 Chart 25: Cumulative developments of wind power plants in Ukraine in MW from 2000 to 2018, including estimates ..................................................................................................... 171 Chart 26: Mandatory capacity generation targets for share of renewable energies in CIS countries to 2020 (in %) ........................................................................................................ 185 Chart 27: Smart Grid Model Concept ................................................................................... 195 Chart 28: The SuperSmart Grid Diagram .............................................................................. 197 Chart 29: Cumulative number of smart grid projects in selected CEE & SEE countries compared to average EU number, 2000 2012 ................................................................... 200 Chart 30: Cumulative budget of smart grid projects in selected CEE & SEE countries compared to average EU numbers, 2000 2012 ................................................................. 201 Table 1: Support schemes for RES generation in the EU countries ........................................ 49 Table 2: Wind Potential of CIS countries, WWEA H1 2012..................................................... 56 Table 3: Attractiveness index for wind energy investments in CIS countries in 2013 ........... 61 Table 4: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Armenia ................................................................ 67 Table 5: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Azerbaijan ............................................................. 77 Table 6: Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Belarus .................................................................. 85 Table 7: Planned wind projects in Kazakhstan for 2013 - 2020 ............................................ 100 Table 8: Temporary Feed-in tariff for wind energy in Kazakhstan ....................................... 105 Table 9: Limits on RES installed capacity in Russia 2014 - 2020 ........................................... 133 Table 10: Limits on capital costs for RES projects in Russia.................................................. 136 Table 11: Fixed operating costs for RES projects in Russia ................................................... 136 Table 12: Local content requirements for RES projects in Russia ........................................ 137 Table 13: Minimum capacity factor for RES installation in Russia........................................ 140 Table 14: Feed-in tariffs for electricity from renewable sources in Ukraine after 01.04.2013 ............................................................................................................................................... 174 Table 15: Local Content Requirements for Renewable Power Plants in Ukraine ................ 176 Table 16: Mandatory local purchasing allotments for wind power plants in Ukraine ......... 177 Table 17: Support schemes in CIS countries, 2013 ............................................................... 184 2013, Inea Consulting Ltd., Manufactured in Bulgaria; All rights reserved. Last updated on 02.09.20138