semis ex-cis in middle eastern market : current state and future outlook
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Semis ex-CIS in Middle Eastern market : current state and future outlook. SBB Steel Market Middle East April 28-29 2008, Dubai, UAE. Svetlana Delamure Editor Metal Expert Weekly / Metal Expert News. Metal Expert in brief:. Part of Information agency Metal Courier established in 1994 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Semis ex-CIS in Middle Eastern market: current state and future outlook
Svetlana DelamureEditor
Metal Expert Weekly / Metal Expert News
SBB Steel Market Middle EastApril 28-29 2008, Dubai, UAE
•Part of Information agency Metal Courier established in 1994
•Reliable source of information on global, and CIS in particular, steel and raw materials markets
•Provider of daily news, weekly reviews, monthly analytical bulletins, quarterly forecasts, special reports and consulting services both in English and Russian
•Offices in Dnipropetrovs'k (Ukraine), Moscow (Russia), and Houston (Texas, USA)
Metal Expert in brief:
Middle East in the world steel semis trade today…
6 major importing countries Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, Oman
18% (5.8mt) of billet imported globally
3% (0.9mt) of globally traded slabs
Share of semis ex-CIS supplied to Middle East – 85%
2005 share 2007 share
Billet 3718 86% 5822 87%
Slabs 605 14% 896 13%
Total 4322 6718
Middle Eastern countries import mainly billets…
Share of semis from CIS has been growing constantly for the last 3 years …
2005 2006 2007
Russia 1866 1534 3427
Ukraine 1084 1305 1532
Kazakhstan 342 410 486
Belarus 54 78 58
China 62 332 555
United Kingdom 276 170 115
Others 639 280 338
Total 4322 4110 6510
CIS share 77% 81% 85%
Middle East is an important market for CIS suppliers, consuming…
23% of Russian semis
13% of Ukrainian, and
85% of Kazakh billet and slabs
2005 2006 2007 y-o-y
Iran 1631 1719 3246 89%
Syria 463 476 701 47%
Saudi Arabia 687 567 606 7%
UAE 366 325 578 78%
Jordan 349 370 440 19%
Oman 221 209 252 21%
Total 3717 3668 5822 59%
44%
56%
47%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2005 2006 2007*
Iran
Others
Middle East increased semis import significantly
Most countries of the region import square billet…
…and only two buy slabs
430
217
819
197
63116
050
100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850
2005 2006 2007*
Iran
Saudi Arabia
…but growth rates are impressing in both cases
What is behind increased billet consumption?
The major reason is extremely high construction activity in the region, especially in Iran and UAE, and other countries are on their way…
During 2007 rebar shipments to the region went up by 2mln tonnes year-on-year, mainly to
Iran +1mt
UAE +1mt
Rerollers’ demand for imported billet was estimated at around 7.6mt in 2007 with account of new capacities launched
Middle East domestic rebar prices, $/t exw
600630660690720750780810840870900930960990
1020105010801110
May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08
Iran, exw, $/t
Syria, exw, $/t
UAE, exw, $/t
Other factors supporting billet prices…
Crude steel production costs, $/t
Raw materials costs
Absence of Chinese semis due to high costs and 25% export duty
‘Newly’ emerged semis market in South East Asia
Consolidation of CIS semis production
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08
China, iron ore and coke
Turke, scrap
Export price for Chinese billet with production costs of $600/t is around $890-900/t fob = $970-980/t c&f Gulf
Even more factors…
Freight rates, $/t
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08
Astrakhan-Anzali, 3,000t of steel
Odessa-Dubai, 40,000t of steel, FILO
Freight rates
Logistics problems in the Caspian and Black Sea ports in winter
USD depreciation
Financial restrictions while working with Iran
All the factors mentioned resulted in higher billet prices… will the situations persist?
Imported billet prices, $/t c&f
Some figures for Middle East market
Imported billet prices – by 65-75%
Average domestic rebar prices grew 55-70% since May 2007
Freight rates – by 30% in case of Odessa-Dubai route and 133% in Astrakhan-Anzali case
490
530
570
610
650
690
730
770
810
850
890
930
970
May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08
Iran (Anzali)
UAE
Syria
Demand side:• Strong rebar demand and shortage in Middle East will maintain high rebar prices which supports rerollers demand for billet
• New steel-making facilities to be introduced in 2008 won’t be brought to full capacity within the year
Billet prices promise to be strong in 2008 due to…
Crude steel
Long products
Billet demand, 2007
Billet demand, 2008
Chng, 08/07
Iran 3500 1200 3200 900 -72%
Saudi Arabia 1900 1000 1700 800 -53%
UAE 1400 1650 1000 1250 25%
Syria 520 0 1000 480 -52%
Jordan 20 80 650 710 9%
Oman 0 250 230 480 109%
Total 7340 4180 7780 4620 -41%
Supply side:• Absence of Chinese billet in the market due to high production costs and export duty ‘gives freedom’ Turkish and CIS suppliers
• In 2007 Russia and Ukraine decreased billet exports by 480,000t and 600,000t respectively
• Russian Yartsevo and Rostov mini-mills will launch rolling capacities of 750,000t totally in 2008, though…
• In Ukraine new billet producer emerged – Electrostal – with 300,000tpy capacity
•Turkey will add about 2.9mt of crude steel capacity vs 1.9mt rolling capacity, but it will partially offset existing billet shortage in Turkish market
Billet prices promise to be strong in 2008 due to…
Products:- Scrap- Pig iron- Billet- Steel long products- Freight
Regions:- Turkey- CIS (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan)- South Europe (Italy, Spain)- Central Europe (Poland, Bulgaria, Romania)- Middle East (Iran, UAE, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan)- North Africa (Egypt, Algeria)- US- China- South East Asia (Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Singapore)
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