christi willison | pb | 505-878-6564 | [email protected] development of an activity- based model...

Christi Willison | PB | 505-878-6564 | [email protected]

Development of an Activity-Based Model in the Lake Tahoe Region

Lake Tahoe Region

TRPA 55,000 Residents 282 TAZs Nearby Cities Winter activities Summer activities Who’s here

Tahoe Model Overview

Activity-based resident modelsActivity-based non-resident

modelsSeasonal residentDay visitorOvernight visitorExternal Worker

Resident Models – Data needed

Resident Models

Winter and Summer versionTransCAD interfaceMonte-carlo simulation Implemented in JAVAAsserted coefficients based on our

work for MORPC.Main effort was on calibration and

validation

Mid-Ohio Region

•MORPC•1,400,000 residents•2000 TAZs•Model used since 2005

Intra-household Interactions

Entire-Day Level

Joint Activity-Episode Level

Task Allocation Level

Activity Coordination Resource Allocation

Allocation of carsto household

members

Coordinated DAP type

JOINT non-mandatory activity

RIDE sharing for mandatory activity

ESCORT children

ALLOCATED maintenance task

Mandatory Non-Mandatory Home

√

√

√

Time Windows

7:00 22:00

TOD

7:00 16:00

10:00 19:00

3-hour overlap

Tou

r gen

era

tion

MORPC Core Demand Models

1. Household car ownership

Mandatory(work / university / school)

Non-mandatory(maintenance / discretionary)

At home/absent(no travel)

Primary destination (5) TOD(6) and mode (7)

3. Joint HH tour generation & participation of HH members

Residual time windows forpersons

4.1-4.2. Maintenance HH tour generation & allocation to HH members

Destination (5), TOD (6) & mode (7) for non-mandatory joint & individual tours

8. Secondary stop frequency, location, and trip mode choice

2. Linked daily activity patterns for HH members

4.3. Discretionary individual tour generation

Comparison of Individual Maintenance Tour Destination Choice Results

Distance Summary ( Miles)

Household SurveyMORPC Model

Applied To TahoeCalibrated Tahoe

ModelAverage 3.082 5.665 3.154

Standard Dev. 3.140 6.364 2.862

Individual Maintenance Distance Distribution - MORPC Model Applied To Tahoe

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

0-3 3-6 6-9 9-12 12-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35+

Distance Category (Miles)

Pe

rce

nt

of

To

urs

Survey

Model

IIndividual Maintenance Distance Distribution - Calibrated Tahoe Model

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

0-3 3-6 6-9 9-12 12-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35+

Distance Category (Miles)

Per

cen

t of T

ou

rs

Survey

Model

Maintenance Tour Destination Choice Results – External/Internal tours

Internal-Internal/Internal-External Split

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

Int-Int Int-Ext

Survey

Model

Internal-Internal/Internal-External Split

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

Int-Int Int-Ext

Survey

Model

Internal-External Tours - External Stations Distribution

0.00%

5.00%10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%30.00%

35.00%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

External Station

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

To

urs

Survey

Model

MORPC Model

Applied to Tahoe

Calibrated Tahoe Model

Internal-External Tours - External Stations Distribution

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

External Station

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

To

urs

Survey

Model

Indiv. Maint. DC Coefficients

3.0500Dummy for ext zone 7



-3.0500Dummy for ext zone 4




-999.0000-999.0000No Attractions

0.76650.7665School child (pre-driving) at home and destination within 3 miles

0.87430.8743Preschool child at home & destination within 3 miles

0.55080.5508Number of cars less than workers - long walk to transit

1.63301.6330Number of cars less than workers - short walk to transit

2.17302.1730No cars in household & short walk to transit

-0.2494-0.2494Binary for rural at origin, suburban at destination

0.43320.4332Binary for urban at origin, urban at destination

0.84170.8417Size variable

1.00001.0000Mode Choice Logsum forMandatory Daily Activity Pattern

1.00001.0000Mode Choice Logsum for Non-Mandatory Daily Activity Pattern

-0.4948-0.2348Distance - Child

-0.3568-0.1368Distance - Adult (Non-Mandatory Daily Activity Pattern)

-0.4419-0.1819Distance - Adult (Mandatory Daily Activity Pattern)


MORPC ModelVariable




-3.0500Dummy for ext zone 4




-999.0000-999.0000No Attractions

0.76650.7665School child (pre-driving) at home and destination within 3 miles

0.87430.8743Preschool child at home & destination within 3 miles

0.55080.5508Number of cars less than workers - long walk to transit

1.63301.6330Number of cars less than workers - short walk to transit

2.17302.1730No cars in household & short walk to transit

-0.2494-0.2494Binary for rural at origin, suburban at destination

0.43320.4332Binary for urban at origin, urban at destination

0.84170.8417Size variable

1.00001.0000Mode Choice Logsum forMandatory Daily Activity Pattern

1.00001.0000Mode Choice Logsum for Non-Mandatory Daily Activity Pattern

-0.4948-0.2348Distance - Child

-0.3568-0.1368Distance - Adult (Non-Mandatory Daily Activity Pattern)

-0.4419-0.1819Distance - Adult (Mandatory Daily Activity Pattern)


MORPC ModelVariable

Comparison: Mode Choice for Low-Inc Work Tours

Mode Choice Split - Work Tour, Low IncomeMORPC Model Applied to Tahoe

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

Drive Alone Shared Auto Drive to Transit Walk to Transit Non-Motorized

Mode

Sh

are

Survey

Model

Mode Choice Split - Work Tour, Low IncomeCalibrated Tahoe Model

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

Drive Alone Shared Auto Drive to Transit Walk to Transit Non-Motorized

Mode

Sh

are

Survey

Model

Comparison of Mode Choice for Low-Income Work Tours

Drive Alone Shared Auto Walk to Transit Drive to Transit Non-MotorizedOriginal MORPC Alternative Specific Constants 1.6490 -0.4000 -0.1809 -1.4760 2.0533Calibrated Tahoe Model Alternative Specific Constants 1.2287 -1.8000 1.6000 -1.5000 3.4600Value of TimeTimeNatural log of travel distance -0.3148Urban origin 0.5720 0.5720Urban destination 0.7718 0.7718 0.8453Number of cars less than number of drivers -1.4160 -0.7176 0.6831No cars in household -999.0000 2.3480 2.3090Part time adult worker 0.3582Child and of driving age -0.9617Child and not of driving age -999.0000Home and school in same zone 0.2864Leave in the AM Peak 0.8498Return in the PM Peak 0.6257

-0.021348.03

Mode Choice Split - School (Child)MORPC Model Applied to Tahoe

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

Drive Alone Shared Auto Drive toTransit

Walk toTransit

Non-Motorized School Bus

Mode

Sh

are

Survey

Model

Comparison: Mode Choice School Tours

Mode Choice Split - School (Child) Calibrated Tahoe Model

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

Drive Alone Shared Auto Drive to Transit Walk to Transit Non-Motorized School Bus

Mode

Sh

are

Survey

Model

Mode Choice - School Tour Coefficients

Drive Alone Shared Auto Walk to Transit Drive to Transit Non-Motorized School BusOriginal MORPC Alternative Specific Constants -0.3236 0.1000 -5.4505 -533.4667 -0.3107 -0.3854Calibrated Tahoe Model Alternative Specific Constants 1.4200 0.6800 -1.8000 -533.4667 1.3600 -0.0500Value of TimeTimeNatural log of travel distance -0.2063 0.2035Low income household -0.3831 1.0639 0.1769High income household -0.6848Number of cars less than number of drivers -1.9801 2.2255 0.8314No cars in household -999.0000 3.6531 2.5646 1.0943Child is of driving age -1.2517Child not of driving age -999.0000Home and school in same zone 0.2864 0.0611

2.2400-0.0092

Comparison: Shopping Tour ParticipationIndividual Shop Tour Participation Rate by Person Type

MORPC Model Applied to Tahoe

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

Full Time Worker Part Time Worker Non-Worker Driving Child Non-Driving Child

Person Type

Pa

rtic

ipa

tio

n R

ate

Survey

Model

Individual Shop Tour Participation Rate by Person TypeCalibrated Tahoe Model

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

Full Time Worker Part Time Worker Non-Worker Driving Child Non-Driving Child

Person Type

Part

icip

ati

on

Rate Survey

Model

Full Time Worker Part Time Worker Non-Worker Pre-Driving Child Driving ChildOriginal MORPC Alternative Specific Constants 9.8280 9.9830 0.0000 6.1570 8.6060Calibrated Tahoe Model Alternative Specific Constants 9.4280 11.1230 14.1500 8.3570 8.6060Natrual log of person available time window 1.5600 1.4960 5.4070 2.3000 1.9650Person has non-mandatory daily activity pattern 0.5012 0.4458 0.6382Number of joint tour participants -0.3325 -0.4007 -1.3000Medium household incomeHigh household income -0.3646Non-driving child at home with adult 1.4740 2.3940 2.1540Non-driving child at home with no adult -0.3892Urban origin 0.7857 0.8552 0.7766 0.7484Suburban origin 0.7493 0.5524 0.5533 0.6173

Comparison: Shopping Tour Participation

Comparison: At-Work Tour Participation and Type Frequency Rates

At Work Tour Participation RateMORPC Model Applied to Tahoe

0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%

100.00%

Made Tour(s) No Tour(s)

Pa

rtic

ipta

tio

n R

ate Survey

Model

At Work Tour Participation RateCalibrated Tahoe Model

0.00%

10.00%20.00%

30.00%

40.00%50.00%

60.00%

70.00%80.00%

90.00%

Made Tour(s) No Tour(s)

Pa

rtic

ipta

tio

n R

ate Survey

Model

At Work Tour Type FrequencyMORPC Model Applied to Tahoe

0.00%5.00%

10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%50.00%

Eat Other Work-Related

2 WorkRelated

Eat, Work-Related

Tour Type

Fre

qu

ency

Survey

Model

At Work Tour Type FrequencyCalibrated Tahoe Model

0.00%5.00%

10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%50.00%

Eat Other Work-Related

2 WorkRelated

Eat, Work-Related

Tour Type

Fre

qu

ency

Survey

Model

Comparison of At-Work Tour Participation and Type Frequency Rates

No tour EatWork-

RelatedOther

2 Work-Related

Eat, Work-Related

Original MORPC Alternative Specific Constants - Full Time Worker -7.2800 -7.3750 -8.0930 -14.2800 -14.7900Original MORPC Alternative Specific Constants - Part Time Worker -8.6040 -13.3190 -13.2140 -19.2800 -19.7900Original MORPC Alternative Specific Constants - Not Full/Part Time Worker 0.0000 -5.0000 -5.0000 -5.0000 -5.0000Calibrated Tahoe Model Alternative Specific Constants - Full Time Worker -6.9300 -6.1550 -7.4080 -12.8700 -14.1200Calibrated Tahoe Model Alternative Specific Constants - Part Time Worker -7.4540 -10.4190 -11.6790 -15.3200 -20.3600Calibrated Tahoe Model Alternative Specific Constants - Not Full/Part Time Worker 0.6000 -3.5500 -4.4000 -3.0500 -6.3800Medium income household 0.6100 0.5555 0.1527 1.1110 1.1655High income household 0.8693 1.0660 0.1651 2.1320 1.9353No cars in household -0.3391 0.1762 0.0000 -0.3391Full time worker and already made individual discretionary tour 0.2334 0.7045 0.5061 1.4090 0.9379Part time worker and already made individual discretionary tour 0.6776 0.7045 0.5061 1.4090 1.3821Person already made an eating out tour 0.5491 0.5434 0.9166 1.0868 1.0925Full time worker and already made individual non-discretionary tour -0.0520 -0.1903 0.1446 -0.3806 -0.2423Part time worker and already made individual non-discretionary tour -0.3099 -0.1903 -0.2723 -0.3806 -0.5002Person already made a joint non-discretionary tour 0.2458 0.0830 0.0803 0.1660 0.3288Person already made a joint discretionary tour 0.3588 -0.2637 0.5822 -0.5274 0.0951Natural log of work duration 1.5500 1.1420 1.6590 2.2840 2.6920Drove alone to work 0.4804 0.9901 1.1530 1.9802 1.4705Person made two work tours -0.9862 0.3753 -0.2312 0.7506 -0.6109Workplace in urban area -0.4182 -0.2235 -0.1479 -0.4470 -0.6417Workplace in suburban area -0.2916 -0.1102 -0.2204 -0.4018Auto accessibility to retail factor 0.0150 0.0534 0.0265 0.1067 0.0683Walk accessibility to retail factor 0.1256 0.0806 0.1256Worker/student with non-mandatory daily activity pattern -0.3573

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christi willison | pb | 505-878-6564 | [email protected] development of an activity- based model...

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