China’s Future Limited by Energy

Terry A. Ring

University of Utah

China’s Past Technological Leadership

• T’ang Dynasty, Five Dynasties, Sung Dynasty Period• 618 AD 907 – 960 AD 960-1279 AD

– Printing using movable ceramic type• Inventor - Pi Sheng in 1040 AD

– 400 years before Gutenberg

– Gun powder• Inventor - Taoist Alchemists ~600 AD

– Magnetic Compass• Invented before 1042 AD

– Porcelain• Invented during T’ang Dynasty

– ~800 years before Meisen (1710)

“changed the whole face and state of things throughout the world,” Francis Bacon, 1561-1626

What about the world today?

• Western Industrial Dominance– USA, (Canada and Mexico)– European Union– Japan

• Building Industrial Strength in Asia– China– S. Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore

2020 and beyond

• China has a chance to be– Industrial Leadership of the World– Super Power

• This can happen if China can solve some problems

World’s Top Ten Problemsfor next 50 years

1. ENERGY2. WATER3. FOOD4. ENVIRONMENT 5. POVERTY6. TERRORISM & WAR7. DISEASE8. EDUCATION9. DEMOCRACY10. POPULATION

2003 6.3 Billion People2050 9-10 Billion People

R. E. Smalley , Nobel Laureate

Rice University

World Energy Millions of Barrels per Day (Oil Equivalent)

300

200

100

01860 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060 2100

Source: John F. Bookout (President of Shell USA) ,“Two Centuries of Fossil Fuel Energy” International Geological Congress, Washington DC; July 10,1985. Episodes, vol 12, 257-262 (1989).

World Proven OIL Reserves 

Proven Oil Reserves(2000)

Iran9%

Mexico3%

Nigeria2%

Libya3%

China2%

Russia5%

UAE10%

Kuw ait9%

Iraq11%

Saudi Arabia25%

USA3%

Venezuela8%

Qatar1%

Other9%

THE REMAINING OIL RESERVES ARE NOT WHERE WE WANT THEM!

FOR TRANSPORTATION FUELS WE CURRENTLY HAVE NO CHOICE.

Energy Problems

• Today– Oil is not where the industrial development is.– Not enough oil for future demand.

• What is Future Energy Mix

Todays’s Reading Assignment

“Hubbert’s Peak” by Kenneth Deffeyes (2001)

• King Hubbert predicted US oil production would peak in 1970. – It did.

• The same approach predicts World Oil production will peak within this decade. – It will.

• The days of cheap energy from oil will then be gone.

(See also Colin Campbell’s interview athttp://www.globalpublicmedia.com/INTERVIEWS/COLIN.CAMPBELL/)

World Energy Millions of Barrels per Day (Oil Equivalent)

300

200

100

01860 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060 2100

Source: John F. Bookout (President of Shell USA) ,“Two Centuries of Fossil Fuel Energy” International Geological Congress, Washington DC; July 10,1985. Episodes, vol 12, 257-262 (1989).

Gap

Why the Growth in Demand?

• Population increases around the world.

• GDP increases around the world.

• Projections assume improved energy efficiency.

Population Growth to 10 Billion People in 2050

Per Capita GDP Growthat 1.6% yr-1

Energy consumption perUnit of GDP declinesat 1.0% yr -1

What is going to fill the Energy gap?

• Coal

• Nuclear Energy

• Renewable Energy– Solar– Wind– Geothermal– Biomass Combustion

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

OilCoa

lGas

Fission

Biomas

s

Hydro

electr

ic

Solar,

wind, g

eothe

rmal

0.5%

Source: Internatinal Energy Agency

2003

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50 2050

The ENERGY REVOLUTION (The Terawatt Challenge)

14 Terawatts

210 M BOE/day 30 -- 60 Terawatts450 – 900 MBOE/day

The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century = OIL 21st Century = ?? China’s Problem

Projected Demand for Carbon-Free Energy

• M.I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881, “Energy Implications of Future Atmospheric Stabilization of CO2 Content”

Possible Sources of Carbon-Free Energy

• M.I. Hoffert et. al., Science, 2002, 298, 981, “Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a

Greenhouse Planet”

Energy Demand & Source(in Terawatts)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 YEARSource: M.I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881,

20

30

40

10

0

50

TW million BOE/day

-- 200

-- 400

-- 600

PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCESAlternatives to Oil

• Conservation / Efficiency -- not enough• Hydroelectric -- not enough• Biomass -- not enough• Wind -- not enough• Wave & Tide -- not enough • Natural Gas -- sequestration?, cost?• Clean Coal -- sequestration?, cost?

• Nuclear Fission -- radioactive waste?, terrorism?, cost?• Nuclear Fusion -- too difficult?, cost?

• Geothermal HDR -- cost ?• Solar terrestrial -- cost ?• Solar power satellites -- cost ?• Lunar Solar Power -- cost ?

Solar Cell Land Area Requirements

20 TW

3 TW

Graphic fromNate LewisCal Tech

165,000 TWof sunlighthit the earthevery day

Solar Cell Land Area Requirements

8 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each

Sun-Moon-Beam-Rectenna

KEY PROMOTER: DAVID CRISWELL

( Institute of Space Systems Operations, University of Houston)

Solar Power -> Lunar BaseS -> Power BeamS -> Earth ReceiverS

≥ 20 TWe from the Moon

14 Enabling Nanotech Revolutions1. Photovoltaics -- a revolution to drop cost by 10 to100 fold.

2. H2 storage -- a revolution in light weight materials for pressure tanks , and/or a new light weight, easily reversible hydrogen chemisorption system

3. Fuel cells -- a revolution to drop the cost by nearly 10 to 100 fold

4. Batteries and supercapacitors -- revolution to improve by 10-100x for automotive and distributed generation applications.

5. Photocatalytic reduction of CO2 to produce a liquid fuel such as methanol.

6. Direct photoconversion of light + water to produce H2

7. Super-strong, light weight materials to drop cost to LEO, GEO, and later the moon by > 100 x, to enable huge but low cost light harvesting structures in space; and to improve efficiency of cars, planes, etc.

8. Nanoelectronics to revolutionize computers, sensors and devices.

9. High current cables (superconductors, or quantum conductors) with which to rewire the electrical transmission grid, and enable continental, and even worldwide electrical energy transport; and also to replace aluminum and copper wires essentially everywhere -- particularly in the windings of electric motors (especially good if we can eliminate eddy current losses).

10. Thermochemical catalysts to generate H2 from water that work efficiently at temperatures lower than 900 C.

11. CO2 mineralization schemes that can work on a vast scale, hopefully starting from basalt and having no waste streams.

12. Nanoelectronics based Robotics with AI to enable construction maintenance of solar structures in space and on the moon; and to enable nuclear reactor maintenance and fuel reprocessing.

13. NanoMaterials/ coatings that will enable vastly lower the cost of deep drilling, to enable HDR (hot dry rock) geothermal heat mining.

14. Nanotech lighting to replace incandescent and fluorescent lights

14 Enabling Nanotech Revolutions

To Do this Science

• Need Scientists

• Need Engineers

• Need Creative Ideas

• Need Laboratories and Equipment

• Need Funding

Ph.D. Degrees in Physics as a Percentage of GDP

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Pe

rce

nt

GDP is expressed in constant 1996 dollars (in million) Source: American Institute of Physics & National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators, 2002.

The Sputnik Generation

Physical Scientist Production in the US is not keeping up with GDPeven though the physical sciences are the basis of most wealth creation.

We Need a NewSputnik Event to inspire US citizens into the Physical Sciences and Engineering.

The People ProblemNumber of Physics Ph.D. Degrees Awarded in the U.S.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Ph

.D.s

TOTAL U.S. Citizens Permanent Visa Temporary Visa

Sputnik

End of WW II

Doctoral Sciences & Engineering Degrees

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f D

egre

es G

ran

ted

Asians in Asian Institutions

Asians in US Institutions

US citizens in US Institutions

All nationalities in US Institutions

Source: Science and Engineering Doctorate Awards, 1996 and 2000, NSF; Science and Engineering Indicators,

NSB, 2002Sciences = Physics, chemistry, astronomy, earth, atmospheric, and ocean sciencesEngineering = Aeronautical, astronautical, chemical, civil, electrical, industrial, material, metallurgical, and mechanical.

By 2010, if current trends continue, over 90% of all physical scientists and engineers in the worldwill be Asians working in Asia. China is doing this right.

Ph.D. Degrees in Physical Science and Engineering

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

de

gre

es

gra

nte

d (

in

tho

us

an

d)

Asian Citizens

U.S. Citizens

Sources: Science and Engineering Doctorate Awards, NSF, 2001. Science and Engineering Indicators, NSB, 2002.

Sciences = Physics, chemistry, astronomy, earth, atmospheric, and ocean sciencesEngineering = Aeronautical, astronautical, chemical, civil, electrical, industrial, material, metallurgical, and mechanical.

The biggest single challenge for the next few decades:

ENERGY for 1010 people

• . At MINIMUM we need 10 Terawatts (150 M BOE/day) from some new clean energy source by 2050

• For worldwide peace and prosperity we need it to be cheap.

• We simply can not do this with current technology.

• We need people to enter Physical Science and Engineering as they did after Sputnik.

• Inspire a sense of MISSION( BE A SCIENTIST SAVE THE WORLD )

• We need to find NEW ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES

Tomorrow’s Reading Assignment

“The Hydrogen Economy: The Next Great Economic Revolution” by Jeremy Rifkin

(Tarcher/Putnam, 2002)

H2 is not a primary energy source.

But, after natural gas, it probably will be our future transportation fuel

and energy storage medium.

(also check out http://www.eere.energy.gov/ )