china’s future emissions: perspectives from the asian modeling … · 2019. 3. 5. · oecd and...

China’s Future Emissions: Perspectives from the Asian Modeling Exercise

Jae Edmonds, Jiyong Eom and Kate CalvinPresented to the 2011 EPRI Global Climate

Change Research SeminarMay 26, 2011

Acknowledgements

Thanks to EPRI for long-term research support

Thanks to Rich Richels for the invitation to present at this meeting.

Overview of the Presentation

China’s economic and emissions growth historically.

Potential future Chinese emissions—from the perspective of GCAM.

Importance of local air quality policy for climate change.

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions in the Old Days

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1949

1954

1959

1964

1969

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

TgC/

y ROW

USA

FSU & E. EurChina

050

100150200250300350400450500

ER 2000scenario

2000observed

1999observed

Exa

joul

es p

er Y

ear

Year 2000 Global Primary Energy

China, South &East Asis, & AfricaEE&FSU

Latin America

Japan, Australia &NZCanada & WesternEuropeUS

435 415 401

We generally overestimated growth in the OECD and completely failed to foresee the collapse of the Soviet Union

Retrospective of GCAM scenarios

050

100150200250300350400450500

ER 2000scenario

2000observed

1999observed

Exa

joul

es p

er Y

ear

Year 2000 Global Primary Energy

China, South &East Asis, & AfricaEE&FSU

Latin America

Japan, Australia &NZCanada & WesternEuropeUS

435 415 401

We grossly underestimated economic growth in China.

Estimating energy and economic growth in China is a long-standing problem.

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions in the Old Days ... And Today

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1949

1954

1959

1964

1969

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

TgC/

y ROW

USA

FSU & E. EurChina

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1999200020012002200320042005

ROW

USA

China

The Importance of a China FocusBlanford, Richels & Rutherford showed how much expectations of future Chinese emissions have changed.

Asia

ExerciseModelingThe Asia Modeling Exercise

Kate Calvin has lead the exercise.Over 50 People are Attending the Fourth Meeting:

Representing Australia, China, Europe, India, Japan, Korea, Nepal, Thailand, USA

26 Participating Models:AIM-CGE, AIM-Enduse, China MARKAL, DNE21+, EPPA, GCAM, GCAM-IIM, GEM-E3, GRAPE, GTEM, IAMC, IMAGE, IPAC, iPETS, KEI-Linkages, MARIA-23, MERGE, MESSAGE, Nepal MARKAL, PECE, Phoenix, POLES, REMIND, TIAM-World, TIMES-VTT, WITCH

The CPO

Project

To better articulate the role of Asia in addressing climate change.

Asia

ExerciseModelingThe Asia Modeling Exercise

Some emerging observations

Data is a big issue—history is uncertain

Modelers exhibit a variety of definitions for “China”China 22 vs. China 23China bundled with other countries

To say nothing of the variety of future scenarios that the modelers have developed.

AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE

11

12

Population2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Popul at i on 1307.56 1360.00 1440.00 1470.00 1470.00 1440.00Ur bani zat i on r at e 43% 49% 63% 70% 74% 79%Ur ban Popul at i on 562.12 666.40 907.20 1029.00 1087.80 1137.60Per son per Househol d 2.96 2.88 2.80 2.75 2.70 2.65Ur ban Househol d 189.91 221.94 288.00 336.76 364.78 380.38Rur al Popul at i on 745.44 693.60 532.80 441.00 382.20 302.40Per son per Househol d 4.08 3.80 3.50 3.40 3.20 3.00Rur al Househol d 182.71 189.68 181.03 159.97 151.59 144.00

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.00

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

mill

ion

Population

Rural

Urban

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

mill

ion

Number of Household

Rural

Urban

Courtesy Jiang Kejun

13

0 10, 000 20, 000 30, 000 40, 000 50, 000 60, 000 70, 000

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

- 70, 000 - 60, 000 - 50, 000 - 40, 000 - 30, 000 - 20, 000 - 10, 000 0

0- 4岁

10- 14岁

20- 24岁

30- 34岁

40- 44岁

50- 54岁

60- 64岁

70- 74岁

0 10, 000 20, 000 30, 000 40, 000 50, 000 60, 000 70, 000

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

- 70, 000 - 60, 000 - 50, 000 - 40, 000 - 30, 000 - 20, 000 - 10, 000 0

0- 4岁

10- 14岁

20- 24岁

30- 34岁

40- 44岁

50- 54岁

60- 64岁

70- 74岁

2005年人口结构

2030年人口结构


14

0 10, 000 20, 000 30, 000 40, 000 50, 000 60, 000 70, 000

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

- 70, 000 - 60, 000 - 50, 000 - 40, 000 - 30, 000 - 20, 000 - 10, 000 0

0- 4岁

10- 14岁

20- 24岁

30- 34岁

40- 44岁

50- 54岁

60- 64岁

70- 74岁

2050年人口结构


Populations for the SSPs [billion]

(Based on UN World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision – Long Range Projections, released in 2011)

SSP6 SSP9 SSP13

15

Global

Constructed GDP Scenarios [trillion 2000 USD]

16

Global

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

SSP13 RCP8.5 SSP9 SSP6 RCP6.0 RCP4.5 RCP2.6

[W/m

2]

Reference Scenario 2100 Radiative Forcing

2005 level

17

Jae, these are updated global temperature figures that you might want to use.

18

Jae, these are updated global temperature figures that you might want to use.

19

Per capita GDP in China Per capita GDP = labor productivity × employed labor force (work-age population times labor force participation rates x employment rate)Per capita GDP in SSP9 becomes the highest because of the two competing effects: labor productivity vs. demographic composition

20

× =

Per capita GDPEmployed labor forceLabor productivity

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions in China

21

37

29

22

15

7

0

MTC

O2 /y

China’s Primary Energy Consumption [EJ]: Reference Scenarios

Coal remains important regardless of the alternative SSPs.

China’s Final Energy Consumption [EJ]: Reference Scenarios

China’s Energy Consumption between 2005-2095

The same trend as global energy consumptionOverall, the growth is much faster than the global average.

Mitigation under the Three SSPs We assumed a common global price of carbon applied to ALL emissions (fossil fuel and land-use change).

RCP 2.6 is an overshoot scenarioOther stabilization scenarios are “not-to-exceed”.

We observe difference in the initial price required to stabilize among the SSPs. Of course, the big difference in price is between stabilization goals

25

Power Generation by the World and China (SSP9)

State-of-the-art bottom-up assessments of CCS deployment opportunities for China (2010)

2,309 GtCO2Capacity

1,600 CO2sources emitting 3,890 MtCO2/yr

Dahowski, RT, Dooley, JJ, Davidson, CL, Bachu, S and Gupta, N. Building the Cost Curves for CO2 Storage: North America. Technical Report 2005/3. International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme. Dahowski RT, X Li, CL Davidson, N Wei, and JJ Dooley. 2010. Regional Opportunities for Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in China: A Comprehensive CO2 Storage Cost Curve and Analysis of the Potential for Large Scale Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in the People’s Republic of China . PNNL-19091, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA.

China’s Power Generation by the SSPs

Global Land Use Greater population leads to greater crop land use, rapidly displacing the land use for forest, pasture, and bio-energy.

33

China’s food consumption

34

China’s food consumption

35

China’s land use change emissions

INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER ISSUES

37

Chinese Air Quality

China is the largest fossil fuel CO2 emitter.It has severe local air quality issues.It is also the world’s largest sulfur emitter.

38

True-color MODIS image from October 22, 2010

Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=193439

40

CO2

CH4

N2ONon-CFC Halocarbons

CFCs

Solar irradianceLinear contrails

Total Aerosols (Cloud effects)

Total Aerosols (direct)

Surface Albedo (BC on snow )

Surface Albedo (land)

Strat H2O from CH4

Ozone (trop)

Ozone (strat)

Total Anthropogenic (All gases and short-lived

species)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

W/m

2

Radiative Forcing 2005

278 (0 W/m2)

335 (1 W/m2)

400 (2 W/m2)

550 (3.7 W/m2)

650 (4.5 W/m2)

450 (2.6 W/m2)

383 ppm-e (1.7 W/m2)

Radiative Forcing: Aerosols are estimated reduce radiative forcing by almost as much as CO2 increases it!

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

TgSO

2/yr

Without Additional Controls

CHINESE Sulfur Emissions

CHINA Sulfur Emissions

41

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

degr

ees

C


CHINESE Sulfur EmissionsCHINESE Sulfur Emissions and GLOBALMean Surface Temperature with Accelerated Sulfur Emissions Policies

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

TgSO

2/yr

With Emissions Controls



Global Mean Surface Temperature Change

from Preindustrial

42

CHINESE Sulfur EmissionsCHINESE Sulfur Emissions and GLOBALMean Surface Temperature with Accelerated Sulfur Emissions Policies

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

TgSO

2/yr

With Emissions Controls


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

degr

ees

C

With Emissions ControlsWithout Additional Controls



from Preindustrial

43

Rate of Climate Change With and Without Accelerated Chinese Sulfur Controls

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

degr

ees

C/de

cade

Reference CHINA Emissions Controls


44

Rate of Climate Change With and Without Accelerated Chinese Sulfur Controls

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

degr

ees

C/de

cade

Reference CHINA Emissions Controls

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

degr

ees

C/de

cade

With CHINA SULFUR Emissions ControlsReference CHINA Emissions Controls


45

Key Points

China has been surprisingly successful historically—with higher energy and emissions than modelers assumed.We should not forget that the future of China is uncertain.We have begun to look at different potential developments—beginning with the demographictransition.Demographics alone lead to increasingly divergent scenarios with increasingly divergent scales.Assumptions about Chinese local air quality policy could be played out in climate change experienced by the rest of the world.

DISCUSSION

china’s future emissions: perspectives from the asian modeling … · 2019. 3. 5. · oecd and...

Documents