Global and International Buildings Modeling in GCAM

Jiyong Eom, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Leon Clarke,

Page Kyle, Pralit Patel, Sha Yu, Yuyu Zhou

GCAM Modeling Community Meeting

29 November 2011

1

Presentation Outline

Introduction

Structure of the Global Building Model

Results of Global Building Modeling in GCAM

Model Extension: Long-term impact assessment of

building codes in China

INTRODUCTION

3

Year 2005 Building Energy Uses in Selected Countries

4

Traditional

Biomass

Overview of GCAM Buildings Research

The goal is to represent the long-term evolution of

building energy demand globally and regionally

Based on a detailed, service-based model fully nested in GCAM

To explore the implications of end-use efficiency improvement,

carbon policy, and climate change

For the buildings sectors in regions at different stages of

development and climate conditions.

5

Today’s Presentation

Introduces the structure of the model and

Presents some preliminary results and applications.

Energy Service

Demands

Commercial

Building

Floorspace

China

Population

GDP

Urban

population

GDP

Rural

population

GDP

Urban

Building

Floorspace

Rural

Building

Floorspace

Heating

Cooling

Others

Heating

Cooling

Others

Heating

Cooling

Others

Furnace

Boiler

Heat pump

District heat

AC

Cooker

Water heater

Incandescent

Fluorescent

Solidstate

Lamp

Appliances

Equipment

Coal

Gas

Oil

Heat

Electricity

Biomass

Trad. biomass

End-Use

Technologies Urbanization

Floorspace

Expansion Delivered

Fuels

Socioeconomic

Assumption

The Model for Building Energy Demand

Modeling Challenges

1. How should urban/rural population change over time? (in case of rapidly urbanizing regions)

Energy Service

Demands

Commercial

Building

Floorspace

China

Population

GDP

Urban

population

GDP

Rural

population

GDP

Urban

Building

Floorspace

Rural

Building

Floorspace

Heating

Cooling

Others

Heating

Cooling

Others

Heating

Cooling

Others

Furnace

Boiler

Heat pump

District heat

AC

Cooker

Water heater

Incandescent

Fluorescent

Solidstate

Lamp

Appliances

Equipment

Coal

Gas

Oil

Heat

Electricity

Biomass

Trad. biomass

End-Use

Technologies Urbanization

Floorspace

Expansion Delivered

Fuels

Socioeconomic

Assumption

2. How to build a reasonable floor space expansion model?

Energy Service

Demands

Commercial

Building

Floorspace

China

Population

GDP

Urban

population

GDP

Rural

population

GDP

Urban

Building

Floorspace

Rural

Building

Floorspace

Heating

Cooling

Others

Heating

Cooling

Others

Heating

Cooling

Others

Furnace

Boiler

Heat pump

District heat

AC

Cooker

Water heater

Incandescent

Fluorescent

Solidstate

Lamp

Appliances

Equipment

Coal

Gas

Oil

Heat

Electricity

Biomass

Trad. biomass

End-Use

Technologies Urbanization

Floorspace

Expansion Delivered

Fuels

Socioeconomic

Assumption

1. How should urban/rural population change over time? (in case of rapidly urbanizing regions)

Modeling Challenges

2. How to build a reasonable floor space expansion model?

3a. How should energy service demands vary with income, prices, and changing climate?

Energy Service

Demands

Commercial

Building

Floorspace

China

Population

GDP

Urban

population

GDP

Rural

population

GDP

Urban

Building

Floorspace

Rural

Building

Floorspace

Heating

Cooling

Others

Heating

Cooling

Others

Heating

Cooling

Others

Furnace

Boiler

Heat pump

District heat

AC

Cooker

Water heater

Incandescent

Fluorescent

Solidstate

Lamp

Appliances

Equipment

Coal

Gas

Oil

Heat

Electricity

Biomass

Trad. biomass

End-Use

Technologies Urbanization

Floorspace

Expansion Delivered

Fuels

Socioeconomic

Assumption

1. How should urban/rural population change over time? (in case of rapidly urbanizing regions)

Modeling Challenges

2. How to build a reasonable floor space expansion model?

3a. How should energy service demands vary with income, prices, and changing climate?

3b. How to define preferences for individual energy service demands and fuels?

Energy Service

Demands

Commercial

Building

Floorspace

China

Population

GDP

Urban

population

GDP

Rural

population

GDP

Urban

Building

Floorspace

Rural

Building

Floorspace

Heating

Cooling

Others

Heating

Cooling

Others

Heating

Cooling

Others

Furnace

Boiler

Heat pump

District heat

AC

Cooker

Water heater

Incandescent

Fluorescent

Solidstate

Lamp

Appliances

Equipment

Coal

Gas

Oil

Heat

Electricity

Biomass

Trad. biomass

End-Use

Technologies Urbanization

Floorspace

Expansion Delivered

Fuels

Socioeconomic

Assumption

1. How should urban/rural population change over time? (in case of rapidly urbanizing regions)

Modeling Challenges

STRUCTURE OF THE GLOBAL BUILDING MODEL

Floorspace Expansion in Residential Buildings

Income-driven expansion (with the effect of energy price changes)

Five regional groups with varying long-term preference assumed:

A (USA), B (Canada, Australia/NZ), C (Western Europe), D (FSU, China, Middle

East, Latin America, Eastern Europe, Korea), E (Japan, Africa, Southeast Asia,

India)

12

Historical comparison (Eom et al., in review)

GCAM projection (14 regions)

Demand for Space Heating Service [GJ-output/m2] :

tH

t

H

tHtttHtHP

YinInternalGaioSurfaceRatShellEffHDDkQ

,

,

2lnexp1

Demand for Space Cooling Service [GJ-output/m2]

Demand for Other Services (e.g., water heating, cooking, lighting, and appliances):

t

t

i

iitP

YqkQ

2lnexp1

tC

t

C

tCtttCtCP

YinInternalGaioSurfaceRatShellEffCDDkQ

,

,

2lnexp1

Space Heating Requirement

Space Cooling Requirement

Economic Behavior

Economic Behavior

Representing Service Demand ‘Satiation’

(Source: Eom et al., in review)

Climate Change Impacts on Heating and Cooling Requirement: HDD/CDDs in SRES A2 Scenario

14

Estimates based on CCSM with fixed population distribution (Zhou, et al., 2011)

RESULTS OF GLOBAL BUILDING MODELING IN GCAM

15

Building Energy Use in Selected Regions (Fixed Climate)

16

Global Building Energy Use

17

Only less than 2% decline globally !

More electricity and less fossil fuel uses

Climate Impact on Heating and Cooling Energy Use in Selected Regions [GJ/m2]

18

Fixed Climate Changing Climate

MODEL EXTENSION: LONG-TERM IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF BUILDING CODES IN CHINA

19

Spatial Disaggregation based on Climate Conditions for the Building Code Study

20

Regional Heterogeneities: Building Energy Demand Intensities in 2005 [GJ/m2]

21

Energy demand profile varies widely across the regions and sectors

High energy intensities in rural areas

Source: China Energy Databook (2008); China Energy Statistical Yearbook (2006); IEA Energy Balances (2007);

2008 Annual Report on China Building Energy Efficiency (2008); Brockett et al.(2004). Urban energy services are

calculated based on a variety of survey and statistical data; Rural and commercial services are calibrated based

on fuel share of services in urban residential buildings in the same climate zone and with our reasoned judgment.

Disaggregating the Climate Sub-Regions: Urbanization Assumptions

22

Projected China urbanization and other countries’ historical urbanization Population Disaggregation

Building Stock Modeling

The building stock model projects the development of stock-average

envelope U-value over the century.

The stock model specifies:

Building floorspace expansion, lifetime, and retirement rate

New buildings: building code schedule and non-compliant U-value

Existing buildings: retrofit rate and efficiency improvement

23

Building Stock by Vintage in HSCW Region Building Stock by Region in China

Building Energy Demand Intensities by Sub-Region & Impacts of Stringent Building Code Implementation (Preliminary Results)

24

QUESTIONS & COMMENTS

25