china / hong kong industry focus china property sector [email protected] danielle wang cfa, ... china...

ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIESed-TH / sa- JY

Revisiting developers’ land banks

• Potential high competition in land replenishment in

2017 • Developer's land banks are mainly concentrated in

Tier 1/2 cities which are subject to policy risks • Land cost as a percentage of ASP increased to 26%

from 15% five years ago • Focus on defensive plays due to potential liquidity

tightening: COLI (688 HK), CR Land (1109 HK), and

Longfor (960 HK) Developers expanded their land banks rapidly in 2016 and may keep this high land acquisition pace in 2017. The 25 developers we track bought 207% more land in 2016 than in 2015. Their total land banks expanded by 26% in 2016 from 2015 level. Sunac, COGO, and CG expanded their land banks by 150%, 62%, and 51% respectively. However, these developers on average have 4.5 years land bank based on the ratio of uncompleted landbank over 2017 planned new starts. CG, CIFI, Sunac, and Yanlord still recorded a low ratio of uncompleted land over 2017E new starts of less than three years. Vanke and CG recorded low ratio of unsold land bank over 2016 GFA sold of less than four years. We believe these developers will have high incentive to acquire land swiftly in 2017. 40% of developers’ land banks are in non-Tier 1/2 cities, while half are subject to HPR. Twenty-three developers are reported to hold 1 trillion sm of land banks, of which 9% are in tier 1 cities, 49% in tier 2 cities, and 41% in other cities including overseas. In terms of breakdown by cities with/without HPR, the split was 52%/48%. COGO, Agile, CG, CCRE, and Evergrande have the largest percentage of their land banks in non-Tier 1/2 cities, while Yuexiu and KWG have the highest percentage in tier 1 cities. China Jinmao, KWG, and Yuexiu have over 85% of their land banks in cities with HPR policies, while COGO and GLHK have less than 20% in tightened cities. Land cost as a percentage of ASP increased 10ppts compared with five years ago. The 17 developers we track had an average AV as a percentage of ASP of 26% in 2016 compared with 15% in 2011. In 2016, China Jinmao’s land cost as a percentage of ASP topped peers and stood at 51%, followed by Yuexiu and Yuzhou. Compared with five years ago, China Jinmao, Yuexiu, CR Land and COGO’s AV as a percentage of ASP increased the most. Sector valuation is excessive, recommend to stay defensive. The sector is trading at 7.4x FY17 PE, higher than the 6.5x/7.1x average PE in 2015/2016 when the property market was strong. We believe the current valuation has priced in the stronger-than-expected sales and recommend investors to stay with the defensive plays – COLI, CR Land and Longfor.

HSI: 24,615

ANALYST Ken HE CFA, +86 21 6888 3375 [email protected] Andy YEE CFA, +852 2971 1773 [email protected] Danielle WANG CFA, +852 2820 4915 [email protected] Carol WU +852 2863 8841 [email protected] Trista QIN +852 2863 8820 [email protected]

Recommendation & valuation

F Y 18F

PEHK $ HK $ US$bn x

China Ov erseas(688 HK)

22.60 26.15 BUY 31.8 7.0

CR Land(1109 HK)

21.60 24.98 BUY 19.2 6.8

Longfor(960 HK)

13.48 15.23 BUY 10.1 6.3

Company Pric eM k tCapRec

T argetPric e

Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers

DBS Group Research . Equity

China / Hong Kong Industry Focus

China Property Sector

28 Apr 2017

Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Industry Focus


Land bank size

-15%

35%

85%

135%

(25)

25

75

125

175

225

Ever

gran

de CG

Van

ke^

Suna

c

CO

LI

CR

Land

Shim

ao^

Long

for

R&F

Agi

le

Gre

ento

wn

Sino

Oce

an

CC

RE

Poly

(HK

)

CIF

I

CO

GO

Jinm

ao

Yue

xiu

GLH

K

KW

G*

BCL

Yan

lord

FY15 FY16 yoy growth

mn sm

^ estimated land bank; * attributable basis

Source: DBS Vickers; Companies

Land bank for future development over 2017E new start target

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Van

ke^

CG

CO

LI

Yuz

hou

Yan

lord

CR

Land

Ever

gran

de

CIF

I

Yue

xiu

Agi

le

KW

G*

Shim

ao^

Long

for

Sino

Oce

an

Poly

(HK

)

CC

RE

CO

GO

R&F

Jinm

ao



Industry Focus


Unsold landbank over 2016 GFA sold

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

CG

CIF

I

Suna

c

Yan

lord

CO

LI

CR

Land

Ever

gran

de

Shim

ao^

Sino

Oce

an

Van

ke^

CC

RE

Long

for

R&F

Agi

le

KW

G*

Yue

xiu

Yuz

hou

Poly

(HK

)

Jinm

ao

Gre

ento

wn



Land bank breakdown

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

CO

GO

Agi

le

CG

CC

RE

Ever

gran

de

Shim

ao

R&F

KW

G

Yuz

hou

CR

Land

Long

for

Van

ke

GLH

K

Yue

xiu

Suna

c

Sino

Oce

an

CO

LI

CIF

I

Jinm

ao

Tier 1 Tier 2 Others


Industry Focus


Land bank breakdown by HPR and non-HPR

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Chi

na J

inm

ao

KW

G

Yue

xiu

Van

ke

Yuz

hou

CIF

I

Suna

c

CO

LI

Sino

Oce

an

CR

Land

R&F

Long

for

Agi

le

Shim

ao

Cou

ntry

Gar

den

Cen

tral

Chi

na

Ever

gran

de

Gre

enla

nd H

K

CO

GO

HPR Non HPR


Developers’ land acquisitions

Rmb m 20 15 2016 % c h an ge

2 016c on t rac t ed

sales

L and ac q . as% o f

c on t rac t edsales

3333 HK Ev ergrande 71,262 203,570 186% 373,360 55%1918 HK Sunac 28,297 132,855 370% 150,630 88%3383 HK Agile 1,537 27,027 1658% 52,810 51%119 HK Poly (HK) 2,503 8,529 241% 34,900 24%2868 HK Beijing Capital Land 22,400 18,100 -19% 45,510 40%3900 HK Greentown 15,300 18,047 18% 95,800 19%2202 HK V anke 100,786 177,942 77% 364,780 49%2777 HK R&F 4,623 19,680 326% 60,844 32%813 HK Shimao 25,134 43,588 73% 68,119 64%81 HK COGO 2,421 16,543 583% 20,003 83%123 HK Yuexiu 15,390 21,822 42% 30,253 72%1628 HK Yuzhou 8,620 26,138 203% 23,206 113%3377 HK Sino Ocean 14,573 32,741 125% 50,380 65%2007 HK Country Garden 55,950 177,500 217% 308,840 57%688 HK COLI 34,535 38,522 12% 175,539 22%1109 HK CR Land 59,212 62,610 6% 108,040 58%960 HK Longfor 43,320 79,429 83% 88,140 90%832 HK Central China 2,873 3,143 9% 20,146 16%1813 HK KWG 12,047 27,778 131% 22,315 124%YLLG SP Yanlord 0 27,432 n.a 33,635 82%817 HK China J inmao 19,490 61,400 215% 37,464 164%884 HK CIF I 29,537 24,114 -18% 53,000 45%T ot al 569 ,809 1 ,24 8 ,508 1 19% 64%


Industry Focus


Land cost as % of ASP in 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Jinm

ao

Yue

xiu

Yuz

hou

CR

Land

CO

LI

Van

ke^

KW

G*

Suna

c

CIF

I

Yan

lord

Long

for

Sino

Oce

an

CO

GO

Shim

ao^

GLH

K

Ever

gran

de CG

Gre

ento

wn

Agi

le

R&F

ASP AV AV as % of ASP 2016


Land cost as % of ASP in 2016 vs. in 2011

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jinm

ao

Yue

xiu

CR

Land

CO

LI

Yan

lord

Long

for

Sino

Oce

an

CO

GO

Shim

ao^

GLH

K

Ever

gran

de CG

Gre

ento

wn

Agi

le

R&F

CC

RE

Van

ke^

KW

G*

Suna

c

CIF

I

Yuz

hou

AV as % of ASP 2016 AV as % of ASP 2011

Average in 2016=26%Average in 2011=15%


Industry Focus


FY17 saleable resources breakdown: On average, 31% of total was carried forward from 2016

50 45 4529

4428 34 25 30

1827 24 25

14 2031

1737 45

50 55 5571

5672 66 75 70

8273 76 75

86 8069

8363 55

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Gre

ento

wn

R&F

Shim

ao

Yue

xiu

CR

Land

Long

for

Cen

tral

Chi

na

CO

LI

Sino

Oce

an

Cou

ntry

Gar

den

Agi

le

KW

G

Yuz

hou

Suna

c

Yan

lord

Ever

gran

de

Chi

na Ji

nmao

Poly

(HK

)

Beijin

g C

apita

l Lan

d

Brought forward New launches


Inventory level at end-2016 vs end-2015: No. of months to digest inventory decreased to 6.9x (vs. 8.4x at 2015)

2015carried

forwardsaleable

no. ofmths

2016 carriedforwardsaleable no. of mths

1109 HK CR Land 94,000 13.2 107,000 11.93900 HK Greentown 75,100 12.5 56,414 7.12777 HK R&F 55,624 12.3 63,000 12.4123 HK Yuexiu 22,039 10.6 19,748 7.8960 HK Longfor 44,624 9.8 47,500 6.5813 HK Shimao 54,850 9.8 60,408 10.6832 HK Central China 12,336 9.4 13,200 7.92007 HK Country Garden 106,240 9.1 110,160 4.33377 HK Sino Ocean 29,500 8.7 31,500 7.53383 HK Agile 27,961 7.6 26,475 6.01813 HK KWG 12,300 7.3 11,200 6.03333 HK Evergrande 113,880 6.8 200,000 6.41628 HK Yuzhou 7,548 6.5 12,500 6.51918 HK Sunac 35,780 6.3 59,700 4.8688 HK COLI 73,858 6.1 78,502 5.42202 HK Vanke 100,000 4.6 163,882 5.4

YLLG SP Yanlord 12,930 5.3 10,000 3.6817 HK China J inmao 9,899 4.3 14,060 4.5A v erage 8.4 6.9


Industry Focus


Sell-through rate 2016 vs 2017E: Developers' required 60% sell-through to achieve sales target (vs. 64% in 2016A)

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Chi

na Ji

nmao

Yan

lord

CO

LI

Cen

tral

Chi

na

Suna

c

Yuz

hou

Ever

gran

de

KW

G

Agi

le

Sino

Oce

an

Cou

ntry

Gar

den

Shim

ao

Long

for

Yue

xiu

R&F

CR

Land

Gre

ento

wn

2016 2017E

Average sell through rate in 2016: 64%Average sell through rate in 2017E: 60%


2016 new starts grew 28% y-o-y and most are planning to speed up new starts in 2017, especially COLI, Sunac, CRL and CCRE

k sm 2015 2016 2017E2016 y oy

growthCountry Garden 18,000 40,000 62,000 122%Evergrande 42,556 51,380 71,700 21%Vanke 17,300 31,367 29,236 81%CR Land 15,470 8,500 14,400 -45%COLI 13,000 7,600 19,000 -42%Shimao 7,600 7,400 9,000 -3%Sunac 6,100 11,000 27,000 80%Sino Ocean 4,000 5,100 4,200 28%R&F 3,000 6,011 8,800 100%Agile 3,420 3,820 5,950 12%Central China 2,580 3,319 5,461 29%CIFI 3,000 3,500 5,000 17%Yuzhou 1,640 1,000 1,400 -39%Yuexiu 2,640 3,030 2,420 15%Shenzhen Inv 1,500 412 600 -73%China J inmao 1,780 2,450 2,300 38%KWG 1,800 1,500 2,000 -17%Longfor 5,500 8,000 10,000 45%Poly (HK) 2,600 3,714 3,000 43%Greentown 4,667 4,734 3,190 1%Yanlord 1,300 1,500 1,800 15%A v erage 161,858 207,354 288,457 28%


Industry Focus


Contracted sales of developers: Developers, on average, are targeting 17% presales growth in 2017

R mb m 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 E A c t u alg ro w t h

2 0 1 5

A c t u alg ro w t h

2 0 1 6

T arg et edg ro w t h

2 0 1 6

T arg et edg ro w t h

2 0 1 7

3383 HK Agile* 44,160 44,300 52,810 60,000 0% 19% 4% 14%2868 HK Beijing Cap Land 24,860 32,510 45,510 50,000 31% 40% 17% 10%832 HK Central China* 15,600 15,744 20,146 26,800 1% 28% 14% 33%884 HK CIF I 21,200 30,220 53,000 65,000 43% 75% 45% 23%81 HK COGO* # 13,892 17,606 20,003 24,003 27% 14% 5% 20%688 HK COLI* 108,315 144,505 175,539 190,909 33% 21% 21% 9%2007 HK Country Garden* 128,790 140,160 308,840 400,000 9% 120% 57% 30%1109 HK CR Land* 69,220 85,150 108,040 120,000 23% 27% 24% 11%3333 HK Ev ergrande* 131,510 201,340 373,360 450,000 53% 85% 49% 21%817 HK China J inmao* 18,545 27,806 37,464 58,000 50% 35% 6% 55%3900 HK Greentown 79,400 71,900 95,800 65,000 -9% 33% -10% -32%1813 HK KWG 20,494 20,200 22,315 28,000 -1% 10% 9% 25%960 HK Longfor* 49,050 54,540 88,140 110,000 11% 62% 38% 25%119 HK Poly HK 24,100 30,000 34,900 35,000 24% 16% -7% 0%1238 HK Powerlong 10,649 14,304 17,640 20,000 34% 23% 5% 13%2777 HK R&F 54,405 54,377 60,844 73,000 0% 12% 10% 20%813 HK Shimao* 70,216 67,039 68,119 80,000 -5% 2% 0% 17%337 HK Greenland HK 12,927 17,388 18,219 23,000 35% 5% 15% 26%1918 HK Sunac 65,850 68,220 150,630 210,000 4% 121% 61% 39%2202 HK V anke # 215,130 261,470 364,780 400,000 22% 40% 15% 10%YLLG SP Yanlord* 12,945 29,070 33,635 32,000 125% 16% -7% -5%1628 HK Yuzhou 12,001 14,018 23,206 30,000 17% 66% 57% 29%123 HK Yuexiu Property 22,016 24,853 30,253 33,000 13% 22% 4% 9%A v erag e 1 ,2 7 5 ,1 6 4 1 ,5 2 8 ,7 5 0 2 ,2 7 6 ,5 4 7 2 ,6 6 4 ,7 1 2 2 0 % 4 9 % 2 4 % 1 7 %


* Companies under DBS Vickers coverage # Based on our sales estimate

^including en bloc sale

Industry Focus


Completion targets in 2017E and 2016: Developers on average, plan to complete 12% more than last year

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

-10,000-5,000

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,000

Ever

gran

de

Cou

ntry

Gar

den

Van

ke^

Suna

c

CO

LI

CR

Land

Shim

ao^

Long

for

R&F

Agi

le

Gre

ento

wn

Sino

Oce

an

Cen

tral

Chi

na

Poly

(HK

)

CIF

I

Chi

na Ji

nmao

Yue

xiu

Gre

enla

nd H

K

KW

G*

Beijin

g C

apita

l Lan

d

Yuz

hou

2016 2017E change

k sm

Average planned growth: 12%


2017E cash flow projection

Rmb bn T otal Const ruct ion Land Other F Y17E F Y17E End-16Cash in- f low capex expenses CF O Net debt

rat ioNet debt

rat io

688 HK COLI 197.1 (43.5) (100.0) (53.1) 0.5 6% 7%1109 HK CR Land 107.7 (29.5) (37.7) (37.8) 2.7 19% 24%884 HK CIF I 38.0 (10.0) (20.0) (8.0) 0.0 42% 50%817 HK China J inmao 53.6 (11.0) (10.2) (13.1) 19.3 14% 49%813 HK Shimao 70.4 (24.0) (32.2) (21.7) (7.5) 56% 51%3377 HK Sino Ocean 48.5 (18.0) (23.0) (12.8) (5.3) 50% 44%YLLG SP Yanlord 25.0 (9.3) (15.2) (12.8) (12.3) 53% 16%3383 HK Agile 61.0 (14.0) (28.0) (23.7) (4.7) 55% 49%3333 HK Evergrande 492.3 (120.0) (150.0) (172.9) 49.4 90% 120%832 HK Central China 17.5 (7.8) (6.0) (4.2) (0.5) 47% 45%2007 HK Country Garden 360.0 (130.0) (150.0) (50.6) 29.4 11% 49%3900 HK Greentown 50.2 (19.6) (39.1) (14.7) (23.2) 112% 58%1813 HK KWG 26.0 (8.7) (10.3) (6.7) 0.3 57% 67%2777 HK R&F 60.0 (24.0) (8.0) (17.0) 11.0 42% 72%123 HK Yuexiu 34.2 (10.1) (14.9) (8.5) 0.7 49% 53%2868 HK Beijing Cap Land 28.0 (8.0) (14.0) (8.9) (2.8) 134% 132%119 HK Poly (HK) 25.9 (10.9) (11.6) (6.6) (3.2) 119% 108%1918 HK Sunac* 97.6 (30.2) (31.8) (25.4) 10.2 86% 122%1628 HK Yuzhou 26.2 (8.0) (12.0) (6.2) 0.0 60% 72%960 HK Longfor 82.5 (24.5) (43.0) (20.4) (5.4) 54% 54%2202 HK Vanke* 380.0 (115.0) (45.0) (73.3) 146.7 -57% 26%604 HK Shenzhen Inv 16.2 (6.0) (4.8) (5.5) (0.1) 27% 29%3380 HK Logan Property 30.0 (10.0) (17.0) (6.9) (3.9) 87% 72%A v erage 51% 58%

* haven't factored in landbanking budget


Industry Focus


Net gearing ratio 2016 vs. 1H16 and 2015: Developers saw a 1.3-ppt decrease in net debt ratio from 2015’s level

F Y15 1H16 F Y16

Change(F Y16 v s

F Y15)

Change(F Y16 v s

1H16)Greenland HK* 172.5% 191.9% 120.6% -51.8% -71.3%Renhe Commercial 27.0% 34.3% -21.0% -48.0% -55.3%C C Land* -16.6% -23.2% -56.1% -39.4% -32.9%Greentown China 73.0% 70.0% 58.1% -14.8% -11.9%Poly Hong Kong 105.3% 118.7% 108.4% 3.1% -10.3%Longfor Properties 54.6% 62.7% 53.9% -0.7% -8.7%Sino-Ocean Land* 58.5% 52.2% 43.5% -15.0% -8.7%Agile Property* 64.0% 57.2% 49.1% -14.9% -8.1%CIF I 59.2% 57.5% 50.4% -8.8% -7.1%China J inmao* 55.3% 56.1% 49.4% -5.9% -6.6%Shimao Property* 58.1% 55.7% 50.7% -7.4% -5.0%SOHO China* 24.5% 36.4% 31.7% 7.3% -4.6%SRE Group 97.9% 78.9% 74.5% -23.4% -4.4%CR Land* 23.0% 27.9% 23.8% 0.8% -4.1%Yuzhou Properties 79.4% 75.4% 71.7% -7.7% -3.7%China SCE 70.7% 99.5% 96.7% 26.0% -2.8%Country Garden * 46.9% 51.4% 48.7% 1.8% -2.7%Hopson Dev 73.0% 68.8% 68.1% -4.9% -0.6%KWG Property 69.0% 65.4% 66.8% -2.2% 1.4%Powerlong 70.0% 75.1% 76.6% 6.7% 1.5%Fantasia 75.6% 78.1% 80.9% 5.2% 2.8%Yuexiu Property* 73.1% 48.6% 53.1% -19.9% 4.5%Guangzhou R&F 124.3% 154.4% 159.9% 35.6% 5.5%Beijing North Star 88.1% 83.8% 92.3% 4.2% 8.5%Vanke 19.3% 15.2% 25.9% 6.6% 10.7%China Overseas * 6.6% -4.2% 7.3% 0.7% 11.5%Yanlord Land^* 2.3% 1.6% 16.3% 14.1% 14.7%Central China * 25.4% 21.0% 45.4% 20.0% 24.4%Evergrande* 93.5% 93.0% 119.8% 26.4% 26.9%Sunac China 75.9% 85.1% 121.5% 45.6% 36.4%Beijing Cap. Land 111.7% 95.2% 132.3% 20.6% 37.1%COGO * 48.0% 23.2% 97.8% 49.9% 74.6%Minmetals Land 13.8% -14.9% 69.5% 55.6% 84.4%A v erage 61.1% 59.8% 62.4% 1.3% 2.7%

*DBS Coverage

^ Singapore listed


Industry Focus


Short-term debt as % of total debt: COGO, R&F, GLHK, Yanlord had > 40% of debts due in 2017

F Y 15 1H16 F Y 16F Y 16 v s

1H16F Y 16 v s

F Y 15

3383 HK Agile Property 41% 34% 29% -5% -12%

2868 HK Beijing Cap. Land 20% 39% 31% -8% 11%

588 HK Beijing North Star 21% 12% 15% 3% -6%

832 HK Central China 24% 16% 11% -5% -13%

688 HK China Ov erseas 6% 12% 23% 11% 17%

1966 HK China SCE 27% 28% 19% -10% -8%

81 HK COGO 26% 21% 44% 23% 18%

2007 HK Country Garden 25% 18% 28% 10% 3%

1109 HK CR Land 19% 11% 15% 4% -4%

3333 HK Ev ergrande 53% 45% 38% -7% -16%

1777 HK F antasia 18% 8% 12% 4% -6%

817 HK F ranshion 18% 23% 27% 4% 10%

3900 HK Greentown China 33% 23% 21% -2% -12%

2777 HK Guangzhou R&F 40% 28% 42% 15% 3%

754 HK Hopson Dev 24% 27% 21% -6% -3%

1813 HK KWG Property 14% 15% 11% -4% -3%

960 HK Longfor Properties 12% 9% 9% 0% -3%

230 HK Minmetals Land 35% 8% 3% -5% -33%

119 HK Poly Hong Kong 36% 39% 28% -11% -8%

1238 HK Powerlong 27% 20% 25% 5% -1%

813 HK Shimao Property 24% 18% 27% 8% 2%

3377 HK Sino-Ocean Land 16% 15% 14% -1% -2%

410 HK SOHO China 11% 5% 19% 14% 8%

337 HK Greenland 41% 46% 41% -5% 0%

1207 HK SRE Group 77% 93% 58% -35% -19%

1918 HK Sunac China 35% 39% 29% -10% -6%

YLLG SP Yanlord Land^ 32% 30% 44% 14% 12%

123 HK Yuexiu Property 14% 22% 17% -6% 2%

1628 HK Yuzhou Properties 20% 24% 19% -6% -1%

A v erage 28% 25% 25% 0% - 2%


Industry Focus


Borrowing costs FY16 vs FY15: Developers’ average borrowing cost decreased to 5.6% from 6.4% in 2015 and 6.9% in 2014. Only CCOLI saw slight increase in average funding cost

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

CO

LI

CR

Land

Yue

xiu

Chi

na Ji

nmao

SOH

O C

hina

Van

ke

Long

for

Yan

lord

Sino

Oce

an

Shim

ao

Suna

c

Yuz

hou

Van

ke

Cou

ntry

Gar

den

Gre

ento

wn

KW

G

R&F

Cen

tral

Chi

na

Agi

le

Ever

gran

de

Gre

enla

nd H

K

Poly

(HK

)

FY15 FY16


Unrecognised sales outstanding

Report ingcurrencymn

(1) Unbook edrev enue by

end-16(2) Rev enue

17E (1)/(2)3377 HK Sino Ocean 54,700 39,661 138%2007 HK Country Garden 240,000 201,707 119%1628 HK Yuzhou 22,000 17,199 128%960 HK Longfor 73,700 66,717 110%813 HK Shimao 79,000 61,977 127%123 HK Yuexiu 27,600 22,746 121%2777 HK R&F 44,000 58,883 75%1109 HK CR Land 155,584 133,261 117%YLLG SP Yanlord 26,488 27,150 98%832 HK Central China 17,800 13,687 130%3333 HK Evergrande 220,000 294,873 75%817 HK China J inmao 50,045 37,563 133%3383 HK Agile 20,000 44,595 45%688 HK COLI 102,918 196,982 52%1813 HK KWG 25,000 11,879 210%1918 HK Sunac 44,000 45,239 97%

A v erage 1,216,836 1,287,141 95%


Industry Focus


Revenue growth: FY16 revenue grew 28% y-o-y, while 2017 revenue growth is expected to grow by 17% y-o-y

Rmb m F Y15 F Y16 % F Y17E %

YLLG SP Yanlord 16,581 25,664 55% 27,150 6%

123 HK Yuexiu 22,116 20,871 -6% 22,746 9%

832 HK Central China 12,563 9,495 -24% 13,687 44%

2007 HK Country Garden 113,223 153,087 35% 201,707 32%

2202 HK Vanke 184,318 228,916 24% 234,644 3%

1628 HK Yuzhou 10,376 13,672 32% 17,199 26%

2777 HK R&F 44,291 53,730 21% 58,883 10%

3333 HK Evergrande 133,130 211,444 59% 294,873 39%

81 HK COGO 14,739 15,165 3% 19,335 28%

1109 HK CR Land 92,181 96,990 5% 118,223 22%

884 HK CIF I 18,231 22,224 22% 26,682 20%

3383 HK Agile 43,004 46,679 9% 44,595 -4%

688 HK COLI 150,427 145,554 -3% 174,753 20%

813 HK Shimao 57,733 59,286 3% 61,977 5%

960 HK Longfor 47,423 54,799 16% 66,717 22%

1918 HK Sunac 23,011 35,343 54% 45,239 28%

3900 HK Greentown 26,047 28,976 11% 31,038 7%

3377 HK Sino Ocean 30,824 34,551 12% 39,661 15%

817 HK China J inmao 19,615 24,223 23% 33,324 38%

410 HK SOHO China 995 1,577 58% 1,750 11%

A v erage 28% 17%

Source: DBS Vickers; Company

* Companies under our coverage

Industry Focus


Earnings growth: Expecting higher earnings growth in 2017 and 2018

Rmb mn F Y15 F Y16 y -o-y %7E y -o-y % F Y18E y -o-y %

3377 HK Sino Ocean * 2,810 2,555 -9% 60% 4,508 10%

884 HK CIF I 2,210 2,824 28% 26% 4,198 18%

1813 HK KWG 2,860 3,007 5% 13% 3,787 12%

817 HK China J inmao * 2,550 1,836 -28% 99% 4,250 16%

688 HK COLI * 23,520 21,826 -7% 33% 31,452 8%

960 HK Longfor* 6,947 7,760 12% 18% 11,222 22%

1109 HK CR Land * 12,673 14,434 14% 17% 19,456 15%

832 HK Central China * 667 346 -48% 140% 940 13%

2007 HK Country Garden 9,862 11,320 15% 26% 18,837 32%

813 HK Shimao * 4,828 4,230 -12% 28% 5,916 10%

123 HK Yuexiu * 1,030 1,178 14% 12% 1,578 20%

1628 HK Yuzhou 1,559 1,845 18% 29% 2,863 20%

2868 HK BJ Cap Land -150 826 n.a 104% 2,370 40%

1918 HK Sunac 3,138 1,230 -61% 110% 4,470 73%

3383 HK Agile * 2,429 2,744 13% 36% 4,546 22%

2777 HK R&F 2,674 5,209 95% 39% 8,139 12%

YLLG SP Yanlord * 914 2,301 152% 3% 2,581 9%

81 HK COGO * 750 769 3% 57% 1,605 32%

410 HK SOHO China * -234 225 n.a 32% 362 21%

3900 HK Greentown 752 925 23% 102% 2,175 16%

3333 HK Evergrande * 1,985 1,596 -20% 471% 18,009 98%

2202 HK Vanke * 16,574 21,094 27% 11% 27,502 17%

A v erage # 8% 24% 16%



# Weighted average for companies under our coverage (Excl. Evergrande)

Industry Focus


Gross profit margin: FY16 gross margin recovery slightly

F Y15 F Y16 Change F Y17E Change

81 HK COGO 16% 17% 2% 17% 0%

1918 HK Sunac 12% 14% 1% 17% 3%

3333 HK Evergrande 28% 28% 0% 28% 0%

884 HK CIFI 23% 25% 3% 27% 2%

2007 HK Country Garden 20% 21% 1% 22% 1%

2777 HK R&F 28% 28% 0% 31% 3%

688 HK COLI 27% 28% 1% 29% 1%

3900 HK Greentown 21% 21% 0% 22% 1%

813 HK Shimao 28% 28% -1% 29% 1%

960 HK Longfor 27% 29% 2% 30% 1%

832 HK Central China 22% 24% 2% 26% 2%

3383 HK Agile 25% 26% 1% 31% 4%

1628 HK Yuzhou 36% 36% 1% 35% -2%

410 HK SOHO China 74% 79% 5% 76% -3%

1109 HK CR Land 31% 34% 3% 34% 1%

817 HK China J inmao 39% 37% -1% 37% -1%

3377 HK Sino Ocean 21% 22% 1% 23% 1%

YLLG SP Yanlord 27% 31% 4% 32% 1%

123 HK Yuexiu 21% 21% 0% 22% 1%

1813 HK KWG 36% 35% -1% 35% 1%

2202 HK Vanke 25% 25% 1% 26% 0%

Av erage 28% 29% 1% 30% 1%


Industry Focus


Core net profit margin: 2016 core net profit margins declined 0.5ppt from FY15

FY15 FY16yoy

Change/ppts

FY17Eyoy

Change/ppts

FY18Eyoy

Change/ppts

3377 HK Sino Ocean 9% 7% -2% 10% 3% 10% 0%

1918 HK Sunac 13.6% 3% -10% 6% 2% 7% 2%

960 HK Longfor 15% 14% 0% 14% 0% 13% 0%

2868 HK BJ Cap Land -0.9% 4% 5% 6% 2% 8% 1%

1109 HK CR Land 14% 15% 1% 14% -1% 14% 0%

123 HK Yuexiu 4.7% 6% 1% 6% 0% 6% 1%

884 HK CIFI 12% 13% 1% 13% 1% 14% 1%

1628 HK Yuzhou 15.0% 13% -2% 14% 0% 14% 0%

832 HK Central China 5% 4% -2% 6% 2% 7% 1%

817 HK China Jinmao 13.0% 8% -5% 10% 2% 9% 0%

2007 HK Country Garden 9% 7% -1% 7% 0% 8% 1%

813 HK Shimao 8.4% 7% -1% 9% 2% 9% 0%

688 HK COLI 16% 15% -1% 17% 2% 16% -1%

3383 HK Agile 5.6% 6% 0% 8% 3% 9% 1%

YLLG SP Yanlord 6% 9% 3% 9% 0% 9% 0%

2777 HK R&F 6.0% 10% 4% 12% 3% 13% 0%

3900 HK Greentown 3% 3% 0% 6% 3% 7% 0%

2202 HK Vanke 9.0% 9% 0% 10% 1% 11% 1%

81 HK COGO 5% 5% 0% 6% 1% 7% 1%

3333 HK Evergrande 1.5% 1% -1% 3% 2% 5% 2%

Average* 8.4% 8.0% -0.5% 9.3% 1.4% 9.6% 0.5%

* Excluding Greenland Hong Kong


Industry Focus


SG&A as % of contracted sales 2016 vs. 2015: Most developers saw improvement in cost efficiency in FY16

F Y15 F Y16 Change

China J inmao 7% 7% -0.3%

Yanlord 3% 3% 0.0%

Sino Ocean 3% 3% -0.5%

Evergrande 9% 7% -2.4%

CIF I 3% 3% -0.6%

Vanke 3% 3% -0.1%

COLI 3% 3% -0.2%

Longfor 4% 4% -0.6%

Yuexiu 6% 5% -1.5%

CR Land 8% 6% -1.7%

Country Garden 6% 4% -1.6%

KWG 5% 6% 0.6%

COGO 4% 4% -0.3%

Agile 7% 7% -0.6%

Sunac 2% 1% -0.6%

KWG 5% 6% 0.6%

R&F 6% 7% 0.5%

Yuzhou 4% 3% -1.2%

Central China 8% 6% -1.8%

Shimao 7% 6% -1.3%

Greentown 5% 4% -1.6%

A v erage 5.3% 4.7% -0.7%


Industry Focus


ROE FY16 vs. FY15: ROE, on average, improved slightly by 0.3ppts in 2016, partly due to the improvement in SG&A

F Y15 F Y16

884 HK CIF I 19% 20%

688 HK COLI 16% 12%2007 HK Country Garden 16% 17%

1918 HK Sunac 18% 6%

2202 HK Vanke 18% 20%

960 HK Longfor 14% 13%

1813 HK KWG 13% 13%

813 HK Shimao 10% 8%

1628 HK Yuzhou 18% 18%

832 HK Central China 10% 5%

1813 HK KWG 13% 13%

1109 HK CR Land 14% 14%

2777 HK R&F 7% 12%

817 HK China J inmao 8% 6%

3383 HK Agile 7% 8%

81 HK COGO 7% 8%

3377 HK Sino Ocean 7% 6%

3900 HK Greentown 3% 4%

123 HK Yuexiu 4% 4%

410 HK SOHO China -1% 1%

YLLG SP Yanlord 5% 11%3333 HK Evergrande 4% 3%

337 HK Greenland HK -1% 14%

A v erage 9.7% 10.0%


Industry Focus


Dividend payout ratio

DPS (HK$)Div idend pay out(on reported EPS)

Div idend pay out(on core EPS)

F Y15 F Y16 change F Y15 F Y16 change F Y15 F Y16 change

3377 HK Sino Ocean * 0.125 0.199 59% 35% 35% 0% 30% 52% 22%

884 HK CIF I 0.140 0.170 21% 38% 36% -2% 36% 36% 0%

1813 HK KWG 0.327 0.575 76% 25% 44% 19% 30% 51% 21%

817 HK China J inmao * 0.080 0.090 13% 21% 38% 17% 28% 46% 19%

688 HK COLI * 0.610 0.770 26% 16% 21% 5% 21% 32% 11%

960 HK Longfor* 0.402 0.525 31% 23% 30% 7% 30% 35% 5%

1109 HK CR Land * 0.574 0.704 23% 22% 25% 3% 27% 30% 3%

832 HK Central China * 0.116 0.000 Suspend 31% 0% -31% 38% 0% -38%

2007 HK Country Garden 0.146 0.193 32% 30% 33% 2% 29% 33% 5%

813 HK Shimao * 0.700 0.760 9% 35% 45% 10% 45% 55% 10%

123 HK Yuexiu * 0.048 0.065 35% 52% 46% -6% 51% 61% 9%

1628 HK Yuzhou 0.180 0.220 22% 35% 42% 7% 38% 40% 3%

2868 HK BJ Cap Land 0.225 0.225 0% 22% 30% 8% n.a 73% n.a

1918 HK Sunac 0.219 0.290 32% 19% 36% 17% 20% 72% 52%

3383 HK Agile * 0.395 0.450 14% 98% 68% -30% 56% 56% 0%

2777 HK R&F 1.353 1.127 -17% 104% 48% -56% 144% 62% -82%

YLLG SP Yanlord * 0.082 0.235 186% 10% 15% 5% 16% 18% 2%

81 HK COGO * 0.000 0.020 Resume 0% 5% 5% 0% 5% 5%

410 HK SOHO China * 0.785 0.604 -23% 672% 306% -366% n.a 1235% n.a

3900 HK Greentown 0.000 0.135 n.a 0% 17% 17% 0% 28% 28%

3333 HK Evergrande * 0.428 0.000 Suspend 53% 0% -53% 281% 0% -281%

337 HK Greenland HK 0.000 0.100 10% 0% 22% 22% 0% 23% 23%

2202 HK Vanke * 0.812 0.890 8% 44% 41% -2% 48% 41% -7%

A v erage 28% 33% 31% -2% 45% 38% -7%



Industry Focus


Valuation comparison

^ Denominated in SGD for price

~ Simple average discount to NAV; Market cap weighted average NAV = 24%

# Exclude Soho China ** Exclude Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung

@ Exclude Soho China, Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung

^^ FY15: 16F; FY16: FY17F; FY17: FY18F

Source: Thomson Reuters, *DBS Vickers

3-mthdaily Net Disc/

Mk t t rading 12-m EPS gth PE PE Y ield Y ield ROE ROE Gearing P/Bk NA V (Prem)Price Cap v alue Recom target 17F 18F 17F 18F 17F 18F 17F 18F 1H16 1H16 to NA V

Company Name Code HK$ US$bn US$m HK$ % % x x % % % % % x HK$ %

Large capChina Overseas* 688 HK 22.6 31.8 69.7 BUY 26.15 (17) 8 7.6 7.0 4.0 4.3 14.0 13.8 (4.2) 1.1 26.0 13.2Country Garden* 2007 HK 7.4 20.3 31.2 HOLD 6.75 16 32 10.3 7.7 3.0 4.0 19.0 21.8 51.4 2.1 9.3 20.8CR Land* 1109 HK 21.6 19.2 42.8 BUY 24.98 (2) 15 7.9 6.8 3.4 4.0 15.4 15.9 27.9 1.3 28.0 22.9China Vanke 'H'* 2202 HK 19.74 30.9 16.4 HOLD 20.20 12 17 8.2 7.0 5.3 6.3 19.5 20.2 15.2 2.0 22.7 13.1Evergrande* 3333 HK 8.31 14.7 60.6 HOLD 6.43 79 98 11.1 5.6 7.0 8.9 20.1 35.5 93.0 2.1 7.1 (17.8)Longfor* 960 HK 13.48 10.1 11.7 BUY 15.23 (1) 22 7.6 6.3 4.6 5.7 14.2 15.7 62.7 1.2 22.7 40.5Shimao Property* 813 HK 12.5 5.4 10.1 HOLD 11.20 (11) 10 7.0 6.4 7.6 8.4 10.0 10.5 55.7 0.7 28.5 56.2A v erage 11 29 8.1 6.9 5.0 5.9 16.0 19.0 37.7 1.5 21.3

Mid capAgile Property* 3383 HK 6.96 3.5 13.8 HOLD 6.28 64 22 6.4 5.3 8.3 8.5 8.9 10.4 57.2 0.7 15.3 54.6China South City*^^ 1668 HK 1.52 1.6 5.0 FV 1.30 38 n.a. 11.0 n.a. 5.0 0.0 4.1 0.0 83.9 0.5 2.6 40.9COGO* 81 HK 3.99 1.2 3.1 BUY 3.47 36 32 6.6 5.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 12.6 23.2 0.7 7.2 44.5China J inmao Hldgs* 817 HK 2.52 3.5 2.8 HOLD 2.40 42 15 7.4 6.4 5.4 6.3 10.3 11.1 56.1 0.8 4.6 45.7Greentown 3900 HK 7.48 2.1 5.9 NR n.a. 17 10 8.1 7.4 2.5 2.4 7.3 6.6 70.0 0.6 18.5 59.6Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 13.1 5.4 14.7 NR n.a. 10 13 5.0 4.5 8.2 8.8 15.9 16.6 154.4 0.8 18.1 27.6Hopson Dev 754 HK 7.42 2.1 0.7 NR n.a. (80) 10 21.5 19.5 1.4 1.5 n.a. n.a. 68.8 0.3 n.a. n.a.KWG Property 1813 HK 5.88 2.3 10.2 NR n.a. (0) 13 4.6 4.0 7.7 8.7 15.2 15.2 65.4 0.7 10.8 45.6Logan Property 3380 HK 4.46 3.2 3.5 NR n.a. (13) 33 5.4 4.0 6.8 8.4 19.2 20.9 69.8 1.3 n.a. n.a.Poly (Hong Kong) 119 HK 3.19 1.5 4.9 NR n.a. 345 78 32.6 18.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.9 118.7 0.5 13.1 75.7Sino-Ocean Land* 3377 HK 3.8 3.7 5.6 BUY 4.45 11 10 6.2 5.6 5.6 6.1 9.0 9.2 52.2 0.6 7.7 50.6Soho China* 410 HK 4.24 2.8 4.3 HOLD 4.16 (67) 21 65.3 53.9 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.1 36.4 0.5 6.9 38.8Sunac China 1918 HK 10.14 5.1 25.6 NR n.a. (3) 76 12.9 7.3 2.6 3.8 10.5 15.0 85.1 1.5 n.a. n.a.Yanlord Land*^ YLLG SP 1.855 2.6 3.8 BUY 2.21 (12) 9 7.5 6.9 2.3 2.3 10.8 10.7 1.6 0.8 2.9 36.5Yuexiu Property* 123 HK 1.32 2.1 5.6 HOLD 1.23 (14) 20 11.0 9.2 3.6 4.4 4.2 4.9 48.6 0.5 2.7 51.7A v erage# 30 25 8.7 7.1 4.4 4.6 9.9 10.7 65.2 0.7 48.5

Small capBJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 3.78 2.4 3.0 NR n.a. (20) 45 6.2 4.3 6.2 8.3 19.3 22.8 95.2 0.8 n.a. n.a.BJ North Star 'H' 588 HK 3.01 1.3 1.5 NR n.a. 50 n.a. 7.4 n.a. 2.3 n.a. 6.6 n.a. 83.8 0.5 n.a. n.a.C C Land* 1224 HK 2 1.0 0.5 Hold 2.06 6 (79) 4.6 22.0 4.4 0.9 7.4 1.5 (23.2) 0.4 2.8 27.8Central China* 832 HK 1.90 0.6 0.6 HOLD 1.80 106 13 4.9 4.4 6.1 6.9 12.4 12.8 21.0 0.6 5.0 61.8China SCE 1966 HK 2.94 1.3 3.6 NR n.a. (22) 32 5.5 4.2 5.5 7.2 17.7 20.0 99.5 1.2 n.a. n.a.CIF I Holdings 884 HK 2.81 2.5 6.1 NR n.a. 29 19 4.6 3.9 7.6 9.0 22.2 22.3 57.5 1.2 n.a. n.a.F irst Sponsor*^ FSG SP 1.32 0.6 0.1 NR 1.57 13 n.a. 12.7 n.a. 1.3 0.0 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.1 67.8Glorious Property 845 HK 0.91 0.9 0.5 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 207.2 0.6 5.9 84.5Hydoo Int'l 1396 HK 0.78 0.4 0.1 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 67.9 0.6 n.a. n.a.Kaisa Group 1638 HK 2.33 1.5 18.7 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.Lai Fung* 1125 HK 0.216 0.5 0.3 NR n.a. (73) n.a. 12.6 n.a. 1.5 0.0 2.0 0.0 18.8 0.3 0.5 56.4Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.95 0.4 0.4 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (14.9) 0.4 n.a. n.a.Modern Land (China) 1107 HK 1.27 0.4 0.4 NR n.a. 17 17 3.1 2.7 8.1 10.1 18.6 20.0 119.1 0.4 n.a. n.a.Powerlong 1238 HK 3.66 1.9 2.4 NR n.a. (21) 26 6.6 5.2 4.2 5.2 11.8 12.3 75.1 0.6 n.a. n.a.Renhe Commercial 1387 HK 0.199 1.1 0.4 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 34.3 1.1 2.7 92.7Greenland* 337 HK 2.51 0.9 2.0 BUY 4.97 70 n.a. 2.2 n.a. 0.0 0.0 13.8 0.0 191.9 0.9 5.7 56.2SRE Group 1207 HK 0.188 0.5 0.1 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 78.9 0.5 n.a. n.a.Sunshine 100 China 2608 HK 3.02 0.9 0.1 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 257.0 0.9 n.a. n.a.Times Property 1233 HK 5.42 1.2 2.9 NR n.a. 4 43 4.0 2.8 7.9 10.9 22.8 25.4 81.0 1.6 n.a. n.a.Wuzhou Int'l 1369 HK 0.79 0.2 0.1 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 138.7 0.9 n.a. n.a.Ying Li YINGLI SP 0.14 0.3 0.8 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 79.0 0.4 0.9 84.8Yuzhou Properties 1628 HK 3.55 1.7 3.4 NR n.a. 40 21 4.8 4.0 7.4 9.0 21.1 21.6 75.4 1.2 5.0 29.0Zhong An 672 HK 0.65 0.2 0.1 NR n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 62.8 0.2 n.a. n.a.A v erage** 19 15 5.2 5.9 6.0 7.5 16.0 17.6 76.8 0.8 59.2

A v erage (Ov erall)@ 22.2 23 7.4 6.7 5.0 5.7 13.2 14.1 62.6 0.8 44.3~

28-A pr

Industry Focus


PE valuations, 2008 to 2016 trough (based on earnings forecasts)


# Exclude Soho China for 16F & 17F PE ** Exclude Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung for 16F & 17F PE

@ Exclude Soho China, Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung for 16F & 17F PE

^^ FY15: 16F; FY16: FY17F; FY17: FY18F


28-A pr Mkt 17F 18F PE (x )

Company Name CodePriceHK$

CapUS$bn

PEx

PEx

T rough2008

T rough2009

T rough2010

T rough2011

T rough2012

T rough2013

T rough2014

T rough2015

T rough2016

China Overseas* 688 HK 22.60 31.8 7.6 7.0 9.7 11.1 12.8 6.5 7.1 7.8 6.1 6.7 5.8Country Garden* 2007 HK 7.40 20.3 10.3 7.7 3.6 5.2 10.7 5.2 5.8 6.5 4.0 4.2 4.9CR Land* 1109 HK 21.60 19.2 7.9 6.8 15.9 13.1 14.4 7.2 10.1 11.9 7.1 8.2 7.0China Vanke 'H'* 2202 HK 19.74 30.9 8.2 7.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.3 6.8 6.5Evergrande* 3333 HK 8.31 14.7 11.1 5.6 n.a. n.a. 3.8 2.9 3.3 4.2 3.4 4.3 6.4Longfor* 960 HK 13.48 10.1 7.6 6.3 n.a. 17.8 13.8 6.3 5.6 7.4 5.3 5.4 5.5Shimao Property* 813 HK 12.50 5.4 7.0 6.4 3.7 4.2 8.5 3.6 3.9 6.4 4.3 3.3 3.1A v erage 8.1 6.9 8.2 10.3 10.7 5.3 6.0 7.4 5.2 5.5 5.6

Agile Property* 3383 HK 6.96 3.5 6.4 5.3 1.5 4.4 7.9 2.6 3.6 3.8 2.3 2.8 3.1China South City*^^ 1668 HK 1.52 1.6 11.0 n.a. n.a. 17.7 6.9 4.3 5.9 4.3 5.1 5.7 5.8COGO* 81 HK 3.99 1.2 6.6 5.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.6 5.0 6.3 3.1 3.1 2.7China J inmao Hldgs* 817 HK 2.52 3.5 7.4 6.4 5.5 6.9 15.0 6.1 6.0 7.3 4.8 5.1 5.1Greentown 3900 HK 7.48 2.1 8.1 7.4 1.9 2.3 6.3 2.0 1.5 3.3 2.3 3.1 3.4Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 13.10 5.4 5.0 4.5 2.4 4.8 6.8 3.2 3.2 4.7 3.8 3.1 3.5Hopson Dev 754 HK 7.42 2.1 21.5 19.5 1.0 2.2 4.9 2.8 2.8 5.6 3.9 10.7 12.1KWG Property 1813 HK 5.88 2.3 4.6 4.0 2.1 2.9 8.0 3.1 2.8 3.7 2.9 3.2 3.1Logan Property 3380 HK 4.46 3.2 5.4 4.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.5 3.6 3.8Poly (Hong Kong) 119 HK 3.19 1.5 32.6 18.3 10.0 3.8 14.9 4.2 4.9 5.2 3.9 5.4 13.0Sino-Ocean Land* 3377 HK 3.80 3.7 6.2 5.6 4.7 9.0 11.3 4.1 5.4 6.7 6.0 5.9 5.1Soho China* 410 HK 4.24 2.8 65.3 53.9 4.9 3.4 3.9 7.6 3.8 5.3 7.5 13.4 15.4Sunac China 1918 HK 10.14 5.1 12.9 7.3 n.a. n.a. 4.5 1.4 1.4 3.1 2.2 2.7 3.1Yanlord Land*^ YLLG SP 1.86 2.6 7.5 6.9 4.1 6.6 9.3 5.0 6.7 9.3 7.5 7.1 7.0Yuexiu Property* 123 HK 1.32 2.1 11.0 9.2 1.9 2.9 8.9 4.5 4.5 5.8 5.9 6.3 5.3A v erage# 8.7 7.1 3.4 5.6 8.6 3.6 4.2 5.4 4.2 4.9 5.5

BJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 3.78 2.4 6.2 4.3 1.6 3.1 5.1 1.9 2.0 3.3 2.6 3.1 3.5BJ North Star 'H' 588 HK 3.01 1.3 7.4 n.a. 3.5 5.0 7.5 3.6 6.5 4.0 3.8 5.0 5.6C C Land* 1224 HK 2.00 1.0 4.6 22.0 18.4 n.a. n.a. 5.1 3.9 6.7 3.4 5.2 7.6Central China* 832 HK 1.90 0.6 4.9 4.4 1.3 1.5 3.9 2.8 2.8 3.5 2.6 2.5 2.3China SCE 1966 HK 2.94 1.3 5.5 4.2 n.a. n.a. 4.7 3.7 2.9 2.4 5.6 4.5 3.7CIF I Holdings 884 HK 2.81 2.5 4.6 3.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.8First Sponsor*^ FSG SP 1.32 0.6 12.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 29.9 13.4 13.6Glorious Property 845 HK 0.91 0.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 12.9 6.4 2.8 2.8 4.8 4.4 3.6 17.3Hydoo Int'l 1396 HK 0.78 0.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.6 2.3 2.3 7.0Kaisa Group 1638 HK 2.33 1.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.5 3.7 2.9 2.8 1.9 1.7 1.9Lai Fung* 1125 HK 0.22 0.5 12.6 n.a. 0.8 3.2 6.7 3.1 2.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.95 0.4 n.a. n.a. 0.8 2.2 6.9 3.8 2.3 4.2 3.6 4.5 7.5Modern Land (China) 1107 HK 1.27 0.4 3.1 2.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.4 2.4 2.0Powerlong 1238 HK 3.66 1.9 6.6 5.2 n.a. 4.7 5.3 1.5 1.6 3.6 2.8 3.2 2.7Renhe Commercial 1387 HK 0.20 1.1 n.a. n.a. 10.5 5.7 5.4 3.2 2.7 4.7 7.7 7.7 7.7Greenland* 337 HK 2.51 0.9 2.2 n.a. 0.7 1.1 3.6 1.2 1.0 0.6 11.7 8.0 4.8SRE Group 1207 HK 0.19 0.5 n.a. n.a. 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1Sunshine 100 China 2608 HK 3.02 0.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.7 5.8 5.3Times Property 1233 HK 5.42 1.2 4.0 2.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.5 2.2 1.9Wuzhou Int'l 1369 HK 0.79 0.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.3 5.2 22.3Ying Li YINGLI SP 0.14 0.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 64.8 22.4 6.9 4.7 7.8 4.1 5.1 9.5Yuzhou Properties 1628 HK 3.55 1.7 4.8 4.0 n.a. 9.6 5.5 2.7 3.6 3.6 2.4 2.1 3.3Zhong An 672 HK 0.65 0.2 n.a. n.a. 1.7 2.9 7.8 3.0 9.9 5.3 8.3 8.3 8.3A v erage** 5.2 5.9 4.4 9.9 6.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 4.0 4.0 6.2

A v erage (Ov erall)@ 7.4 6.7 5.1 5.7 12.2 4.2 4.4 5.7 5.4 5.8 6.1

Industry Focus


PE valuations, 2008 to 2016 peak (based on earnings forecasts)


# Exclude Soho China for 16F & 17F PE

** Exclude Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung for 16F & 17F PE @ Exclude Soho China, Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung for 16F & 17F PE

^^ FY15: 16F; FY16: FY17F; FY17: FY18F


28-A pr Mk t 17F 18F PE (x)

Company Name CodePriceHK$

CapUS$bn

PEx

PEx

Peak2008

Peak2009

Peak2010

Peak2011

Peak2012

Peak2013

Peak2014

Peak2015

Peak2016

China Overseas* 688 HK 22.60 31.8 7.6 7.0 22.7 25.0 17.0 12.1 12.4 11.2 8.5 9.9 8.7Country Garden* 2007 HK 7.40 20.3 10.3 7.7 19.8 20.3 16.7 11.6 9.2 10.0 6.4 7.3 8.8CR Land* 1109 HK 21.60 19.2 7.9 6.8 28.6 30.4 21.1 15.2 17.6 16.2 10.7 12.8 9.7China Vanke 'H'* 2202 HK 19.74 30.9 8.2 7.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.0 11.8 11.3Evergrande* 3333 HK 8.31 14.7 11.1 5.6 n.a. n.a. 9.1 8.9 6.1 6.4 4.6 14.2 13.2Longfor* 960 HK 13.48 10.1 7.6 6.3 n.a. 24.4 21.7 14.2 11.9 10.4 6.9 8.7 8.2Shimao Property* 813 HK 12.50 5.4 7.0 6.4 14.8 18.3 13.2 9.6 9.5 8.8 6.0 6.1 5.6A v erage 8.1 6.9 21.5 23.7 16.5 11.9 11.1 10.5 7.4 10.1 9.4

Agile Property* 3383 HK 6.96 3.5 6.4 5.3 15.1 19.7 12.9 10.4 6.7 7.2 4.0 5.4 5.8China South City*^^ 1668 HK 1.52 1.6 11.0 n.a. n.a. 19.6 20.4 12.3 6.6 6.9 11.8 9.5 10.8COGO* 81 HK 3.99 1.2 6.6 5.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.8 9.8 10.0 5.1 6.1 6.3China J inmao Hldgs* 817 HK 2.52 3.5 7.4 6.4 22.2 21.8 19.2 16.8 10.3 9.3 6.8 8.4 8.1Greentown 3900 HK 7.48 2.1 8.1 7.4 9.7 18.3 10.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 4.5 6.1 7.8Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 13.10 5.4 5.0 4.5 16.6 17.8 10.5 8.0 7.4 8.1 4.8 4.8 6.0Hopson Dev 754 HK 7.42 2.1 21.5 19.5 9.6 10.3 7.5 6.4 16.0 13.7 16.1 24.6 22.4KWG Property 1813 HK 5.88 2.3 4.6 4.0 12.4 22.1 14.2 9.9 6.6 6.6 5.2 6.2 4.6Logan Property 3380 HK 4.46 3.2 5.4 4.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.8 6.6 6.0Poly (Hong Kong) 119 HK 3.19 1.5 32.6 18.3 30.0 51.0 25.2 16.1 9.8 9.9 6.4 27.9Sino-Ocean Land* 3377 HK 3.80 3.7 6.2 5.6 13.2 24.8 15.7 10.3 12.1 11.4 7.8 9.9 8.0Soho China* 410 HK 4.24 2.8 65.3 53.9 12.5 9.4 6.7 15.1 5.2 6.5 10.0 20.8 51.2Sunac China 1918 HK 10.14 5.1 12.9 7.3 n.a. n.a. 5.8 3.5 5.5 4.9 5.1 6.3 12.4Yanlord Land*^ YLLG SP 1.86 2.6 7.5 6.9 14.5 19.8 14.5 10.5 15.0 14.4 9.8 12.7 9.4Yuexiu Property* 123 HK 1.32 2.1 11.0 9.2 11.0 25.5 15.7 11.0 9.1 9.5 7.9 11.1 10.6A v erage# 8.7 7.1 15.0 22.1 13.9 10.0 9.3 9.3 7.1 10.4 9.1

BJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 3.78 2.4 6.2 4.3 9.5 15.9 9.6 5.9 4.7 5.3 3.3 6.3 5.9BJ North Star 'H' 588 HK 3.01 1.3 7.4 n.a. 20.6 18.0 12.7 10.5 8.9 7.0 8.2 13.0 10.9C C Land* 1224 HK 2.00 1.0 4.6 22.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 17.5 12.7 10.8 6.4 8.6 7.6Central China* 832 HK 1.90 0.6 4.9 4.4 10.8 9.4 6.6 5.6 6.3 5.2 3.8 4.4 3.9China SCE 1966 HK 2.94 1.3 5.5 4.2 n.a. n.a. 6.9 5.5 3.5 6.6 5.6 5.6 7.6CIF I Holdings 884 HK 2.81 2.5 4.6 3.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.9 4.3 5.1 5.4First Sponsor*^ FSG SP 1.32 0.6 12.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 31.3 13.9 13.6Glorious Property 845 HK 0.91 0.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 17.7 10.8 7.3 6.3 11.0 9.1 41.0 19.0Hydoo Int'l 1396 HK 0.78 0.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.5 5.9 7.8 7.0Kaisa Group 1638 HK 2.33 1.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.4 10.0 6.9 5.9 3.9 2.3 8.9Lai Fung* 1125 HK 0.22 0.5 12.6 n.a. 7.8 11.1 17.4 19.0 4.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.95 0.4 n.a. n.a. 3.4 13.2 20.1 n.a. 7.1 6.6 5.9 7.6 7.5Modern Land (China) 1107 HK 1.27 0.4 3.1 2.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.9 5.8 5.8Powerlong 1238 HK 3.66 1.9 6.6 5.2 n.a. 7.0 8.2 6.5 5.6 6.7 3.8 4.6 5.3Renhe Commercial 1387 HK 0.20 1.1 n.a. n.a. 12.5 10.7 7.2 7.0 9.4 23.9 7.7 7.7 7.7Greenland* 337 HK 2.51 0.9 2.2 n.a. 9.3 11.9 6.7 3.2 7.6 44.8 28.2 21.6 8.6SRE Group 1207 HK 0.19 0.5 n.a. n.a. 4.2 4.6 3.7 2.9 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1Sunshine 100 China 2608 HK 3.02 0.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.7 7.4 8.0Times Property 1233 HK 5.42 1.2 4.0 2.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.5 3.2 3.6Wuzhou Int'l 1369 HK 0.79 0.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 12.4 29.6 22.3Ying Li YINGLI SP 0.14 0.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 196.2 331.2 42.9 13.0 16.1 14.7 16.4 15.3Yuzhou Properties 1628 HK 3.55 1.7 4.8 4.0 n.a. 11.7 9.9 5.8 6.5 6.5 3.3 5.2 5.2Zhong An 672 HK 0.65 0.2 n.a. n.a. 8.8 22.3 13.8 12.3 14.9 10.3 8.3 8.3 8.3A v erage** 5.2 5.9 10.0 27.8 32.6 10.5 7.6 8.3 6.1 9.4 8.2

A v erage (Ov erall)@ 7.4 6.7 15.5 33.8 23.0 11.2 8.4 8.0 6.8 9.4 8.1

Industry Focus


PE valuations, 2008 to 2016 trough (based on reported earnings)


# Exclude Soho China for 16F & 17F PE ** Exclude Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung for 16F & 17F PE

@ Exclude Soho China, Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung for 16F & 17F PE

^^ FY15: 16F; FY16: FY17F; FY17: FY18F


3-mth dailyMk t t rading F Y17F F Y18F

Price Cap v alue PE PE A v g T rough T rough T rough T rough T rough T rough T rough T rough T rough

Company Name Code HK$ US$bn US$m x x PE (x ) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016China Overseas* 688 HK 22.6 31.8 69.7 7.6 7.0 9.9 9.9 10.0 8.9 5.3 5.3 6.4 5.1 6.1 5.6Country Garden* 2007 HK 7.4 20.3 31.2 10.3 7.7 13.9 11.3 9.2 6.3 4.3 5.2 5.8 4.4 4.9 4.5CR Land* 1109 HK 21.6 19.2 42.8 7.9 6.8 11.4 13.1 8.5 10.6 4.9 6.4 7.3 5.3 6.8 6.0China Vanke 'H'* 2202 HK 19.74 30.9 16.4 8.2 7.0 8.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.5 6.3 8.6 6.8Evergrande* 3333 HK 8.31 14.7 60.6 11.1 5.6 5.6 n.a. 42.7 3.0 2.4 3.6 2.7 2.7 3.9 11.2Longfor* 960 HK 13.48 10.1 11.7 7.6 6.3 6.5 n.a. 11.8 7.2 4.5 5.1 5.8 4.7 4.9 5.1Shimao Property* 813 HK 12.50 5.4 10.1 7.0 6.4 9.3 11.4 3.1 6.6 2.7 3.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.7A v erage 8.1 6.9 9.3 11.4 14.2 7.1 4.0 4.8 5.6 4.7 5.7 6.3

Agile Property* 3383 HK 6.96 3.5 13.8 6.4 5.3 6.8 1.2 4.2 3.6 2.9 3.5 4.2 2.6 8.6 5.2China South City*^^ 1668 HK 1.52 1.6 5.0 11.0 n.a. 6.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.6 2.9 3.1 4.3 3.6 13.8COGO* 81 HK 3.99 1.2 3.1 6.6 5.0 7.8 32.9 (3.5) 2.9 2.9 4.0 5.3 6.8 5.9 5.0China J inmao Hldgs* 817 HK 2.52 3.5 2.8 7.4 6.4 8.7 8.4 12.3 12.6 4.4 4.8 5.2 3.3 5.0 7.4Greentown 3900 HK 7.48 2.1 5.9 8.1 7.4 10.0 4.2 2.8 6.6 1.7 0.9 3.9 6.7 18.8 6.4Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 13.1 5.4 14.7 5.0 4.5 6.9 3.3 6.3 6.6 3.7 2.7 3.4 4.0 3.3 3.2Hopson Dev 754 HK 7.42 2.1 0.7 21.5 19.5 6.0 1.1 0.8 2.3 4.6 2.1 3.9 5.1 7.0 3.7KWG Property 1813 HK 5.88 2.3 10.2 4.6 4.0 6.7 5.8 3.5 6.0 2.2 2.0 2.6 2.2 3.2 3.2Logan Property 3380 HK 4.46 3.2 3.5 5.4 4.0 3.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.6 3.6 3.6 2.2Poly (Hong Kong) 119 HK 3.19 1.5 4.9 32.6 18.3 12.1 11.4 5.0 11.5 2.9 4.2 5.2 11.1 (2.5) 85.5Sino-Ocean Land* 3377 HK 3.8 3.7 5.6 6.2 5.6 10.0 4.5 8.3 9.5 5.2 4.1 5.1 5.4 11.6 5.4Soho China* 410 HK 4.24 2.8 4.3 65.3 53.9 15.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 25.3 15.3Sunac China 1918 HK 10.14 5.1 25.6 12.9 7.3 4.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.3 1.5 3.8 3.1 3.6 5.5Yanlord Land*^ YLLG SP 1.855 2.6 3.8 7.5 6.9 9.3 4.1 4.2 7.9 4.7 4.9 7.3 6.8 5.8 3.4Yuexiu Property* 123 HK 1.32 2.1 5.6 11.0 9.2 8.0 3.4 (4.6) 8.0 1.1 2.5 4.2 4.9 12.6 6.6A v erage# 8.7 7.1 8.2 6.5 3.5 6.7 3.1 3.2 4.4 5.0 7.9 11.1

BJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 3.78 2.4 3.0 6.2 4.3 7.0 2.3 2.4 3.6 2.3 2.0 2.8 2.5 2.7 3.3BJ North Star 'H' 588 HK 3.01 1.3 1.5 7.4 n.a. 7.9 1.6 1.9 4.6 2.3 3.1 5.4 5.8 7.8 7.4C C Land* 1224 HK 2 1.0 0.5 4.6 22.0 24.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.2 4.7Central China* 832 HK 1.90 0.6 0.6 4.9 4.4 5.2 1.1 2.4 5.1 3.7 3.3 3.8 3.9 3.7 6.7China SCE 1966 HK 2.94 1.3 3.6 5.5 4.2 4.8 n.a. n.a. 4.0 4.1 5.1 4.4 4.5 4.6 2.3CIF I Holdings 884 HK 2.81 2.5 6.1 4.6 3.9 3.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.4 2.9 3.6 3.7 2.9First Sponsor*^ FSG SP 1.32 0.6 0.1 12.7 n.a. 2.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 13.8 8.8 13.0Glorious Property 845 HK 0.91 0.9 0.5 n.a. n.a. 4.5 n.a. 6.7 3.7 2.9 5.7 23.6 (2.2) (1.4) (1.1)Hydoo Int'l 1396 HK 0.78 0.4 0.1 n.a. n.a. 11.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.1 5.1 5.1Kaisa Group 1638 HK 2.33 1.5 18.7 n.a. n.a. 3.4 n.a. 16.2 1.6 2.8 2.5 2.2 n.a. n.a. (11.6)Lai Fung* 1125 HK 0.216 0.5 0.3 12.6 n.a. 7.7 2.1 1.6 5.6 2.4 1.5 3.2 10.6 1.8 1.8Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.95 0.4 0.4 n.a. n.a. 8.8 2.2 6.1 6.3 3.8 9.0 7.1 6.5 8.4 4.6Modern Land (China) 1107 HK 1.27 0.4 0.4 3.1 2.7 3.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.5 2.9 3.1 2.5Powerlong 1238 HK 3.66 1.9 2.4 6.6 5.2 2.6 n.a. 2.6 2.8 1.1 1.8 3.2 2.4 1.8 1.8Renhe Commercial 1387 HK 0.199 1.1 0.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.8 4.8 6.0 2.5 5.2 (3.6) (3.2) (2.3) (0.5)Greenland* 337 HK 2.51 0.9 2.0 2.2 n.a. 9.6 2.4 1.0 2.9 1.2 (1.1) 71.8 22.8 13.0 2.8SRE Group 1207 HK 0.188 0.5 0.1 n.a. n.a. 7.0 3.2 1.5 3.6 2.7 3.8 6.7 (10.6) (0.6) (12.9)Sunshine 100 China 2608 HK 3.02 0.9 0.1 n.a. n.a. 12.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.7 8.3 30.8Times Property 1233 HK 5.42 1.2 2.9 4.0 2.8 2.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.6 3.2 2.5 2.0Wuzhou Int'l 1369 HK 0.79 0.2 0.1 n.a. n.a. 10.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.7 18.4 (5.7) 32.1Ying Li YINGLI SP 0.14 0.3 0.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.8 32.6 18.6 7.8 6.8 18.4 9.5 12.1 18.3Yuzhou Properties 1628 HK 3.55 1.7 3.4 4.8 4.0 4.0 n.a. 2.6 3.6 2.6 4.2 2.8 3.4 3.0 3.1Zhong An 672 HK 0.65 0.2 0.1 n.a. n.a. 10.8 4.2 3.4 8.6 5.5 4.2 5.1 5.2 3.6 10.4A v erage** 5.2 5.9 7.4 2.8 5.9 5.5 3.2 3.7 8.7 5.6 4.1 5.5

A v erage (Ov erall)@ 7.4 6.7 8.1 5.7 6.4 6.2 3.3 3.7 6.6 5.3 5.7 7.6HSI Index HSI 9.1 9.0 10.3 7.8 8.8 9.4 9.3 10.4 9.3

28-A pr

Industry Focus


PE valuations, 2008 to 2016 peak (based on reported earnings)


# Exclude Soho China for 16F & 17F PE

** Exclude Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung for 16F & 17F PE @ Exclude Soho China, Greenland, First Sponsor & Lai Fung for 16F & 17F PE

^^ FY15: 16F; FY16: FY17F; FY17: FY18F


3-mth dailyMk t t rading F Y17F F Y18F

Price Cap v alue PE PE A v g Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak Peak

Company Name Code HK$ US$bn US$m x x PE (x ) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016China Overseas* 688 HK 22.6 31.8 69.7 7.6 7.0 9.9 25.2 20.6 11.6 9.4 10.1 8.7 6.9 9.3 7.6Country Garden* 2007 HK 7.4 20.3 31.2 10.3 7.7 13.9 86.8 25.3 10.6 9.0 8.2 9.5 7.2 8.6 7.2CR Land* 1109 HK 21.6 19.2 42.8 7.9 6.8 11.4 35.6 21.6 14.5 10.2 11.5 9.3 7.8 10.9 8.4China Vanke 'H'* 2202 HK 19.74 30.9 16.4 8.2 7.0 8.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.9 10.5 12.5 11.1Evergrande* 3333 HK 8.31 14.7 60.6 11.1 5.6 5.6 n.a. 52.1 7.0 6.6 6.3 4.5 3.9 9.9 16.2Longfor* 960 HK 13.48 10.1 11.7 7.6 6.3 6.5 n.a. 14.8 11.7 9.2 10.2 8.7 6.3 8.3 7.2Shimao Property* 813 HK 12.50 5.4 10.1 7.0 6.4 9.3 63.7 14.2 9.6 6.7 7.4 7.6 6.8 10.1 6.9A v erage 8.1 6.9 9.3 52.8 24.8 10.8 8.5 9.0 8.3 7.1 9.9 9.2

Agile Property* 3383 HK 6.96 3.5 13.8 6.4 5.3 6.8 7.9 20.9 6.1 9.6 5.9 7.2 5.7 17.3 7.5China South City*^^ 1668 HK 1.52 1.6 5.0 11.0 n.a. 6.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.8 4.3 7.0 9.7 8.6 18.8COGO* 81 HK 3.99 1.2 3.1 6.6 5.0 7.8 188.9 n.a. 4.9 8.0 8.9 9.2 13.3 14.1 7.3China J inmao Hldgs* 817 HK 2.52 3.5 2.8 7.4 6.4 8.7 33.1 24.9 17.0 9.6 9.5 6.8 5.1 9.3 11.0Greentown 3900 HK 7.48 2.1 5.9 8.1 7.4 10.0 30.5 18.9 10.7 5.2 4.3 6.2 12.7 42.0 9.7Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 13.1 5.4 14.7 5.0 4.5 6.9 28.6 20.6 10.2 8.3 6.0 5.2 6.0 5.3 5.9Hopson Dev 754 HK 7.42 2.1 0.7 21.5 19.5 6.0 16.2 4.1 3.9 11.7 7.3 8.2 7.1 14.0 5.0KWG Property 1813 HK 5.88 2.3 10.2 4.6 4.0 6.7 n.a. 18.2 11.0 6.4 4.5 4.5 4.3 5.8 4.3Logan Property 3380 HK 4.46 3.2 3.5 5.4 4.0 5.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.7 4.5 5.5 3.8Poly (Hong Kong) 119 HK 3.19 1.5 4.9 32.6 18.3 12.1 59.7 40.1 18.6 10.8 8.3 9.1 16.4 (6.8) 121.8Sino-Ocean Land* 3377 HK 3.8 3.7 5.6 6.2 5.6 10.0 25.5 22.5 16.2 12.8 8.5 8.3 7.3 20.1 8.9Soho China* 410 HK 4.24 2.8 4.3 65.3 53.9 15.7 n.a. 6.7 7.9 8.0 2.4 3.8 7.2 52.1 24.1Sunac China 1918 HK 10.14 5.1 25.6 12.9 7.3 4.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.2 5.4 6.0 6.9 9.8 8.4Yanlord Land*^ YLLG SP 1.855 2.6 3.8 7.5 6.9 9.3 27.4 17.6 11.0 11.6 8.0 10.4 8.1 8.3 5.1Yuexiu Property* 123 HK 1.32 2.1 5.6 11.0 9.2 8.0 20.2 n.a. 12.0 2.5 5.7 6.8 6.5 22.2 9.6A v erage# 8.7 7.1 8.3 39.2 18.0 10.3 7.8 6.5 7.0 8.0 15.5 16.2

BJ Cap Land 'H' 2868 HK 3.78 2.4 3.0 6.2 4.3 7.0 21.7 13.2 6.3 5.4 4.7 4.0 3.3 7.1 4.7BJ North Star 'H' 588 HK 3.01 1.3 1.5 7.4 n.a. 7.9 12.7 6.1 6.9 5.2 5.7 7.7 9.8 15.5 10.5C C Land* 1224 HK 2 1.0 0.5 4.6 22.0 24.7 n.a. n.a. 36.8 27.0 13.7 16.1 4.7 5.9 6.1Central China* 832 HK 1.90 0.6 0.6 4.9 4.4 5.2 6.7 11.0 7.4 6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 7.1 10.0China SCE 1966 HK 2.94 1.3 3.6 5.5 4.2 4.8 n.a. n.a. 5.9 6.1 6.3 5.8 5.9 6.2 3.9CIF I Holdings 884 HK 2.81 2.5 6.1 4.6 3.9 3.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.6 4.6 4.7 7.2 5.7First Sponsor*^ FSG SP 1.32 0.6 0.1 12.7 n.a. 2.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 16.6 9.7 14.7Glorious Property 845 HK 0.91 0.9 0.5 n.a. n.a. 4.5 n.a. 8.8 6.3 8.5 10.1 39.2 (3.8) (2.3) (2.3)Hydoo Int'l 1396 HK 0.78 0.4 0.1 n.a. n.a. 11.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 28.2 12.4 11.8Kaisa Group 1638 HK 2.33 1.5 18.7 n.a. n.a. 3.4 n.a. 20.2 3.2 7.0 4.8 3.9 n.a. n.a. (11.6)Lai Fung* 1125 HK 0.216 0.5 0.3 12.6 n.a. 7.7 15.2 5.9 7.8 5.4 2.5 5.7 14.1 3.4 2.8Minmetals Land 230 HK 0.95 0.4 0.4 n.a. n.a. 8.8 16.4 38.4 12.1 9.5 15.6 11.8 8.5 15.4 6.7Modern Land (China) 1107 HK 1.27 0.4 0.4 3.1 2.7 3.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.4 3.7 6.5 6.3Powerlong 1238 HK 3.66 1.9 2.4 6.6 5.2 2.6 n.a. 3.0 3.7 3.2 3.1 5.4 4.0 3.5 3.8Renhe Commercial 1387 HK 0.199 1.1 0.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.3 9.1 9.4 5.7 17.4 (8.4) (5.5) (7.3) (1.0)Greenland* 337 HK 2.51 0.9 2.0 2.2 n.a. 9.6 39.3 7.2 4.9 4.2 (1.8) 364.4 48.0 36.7 5.0SRE Group 1207 HK 0.188 0.5 0.1 n.a. n.a. 7.0 20.7 4.7 4.8 6.7 6.8 13.3 (13.9) (2.7) (24.3)Sunshine 100 China 2608 HK 3.02 0.9 0.1 n.a. n.a. 12.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.9 13.0 38.5Times Property 1233 HK 5.42 1.2 2.9 4.0 2.8 2.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.1Wuzhou Int'l 1369 HK 0.79 0.2 0.1 n.a. n.a. 10.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.2 32.2 (15.0) 35.8Ying Li YINGLI SP 0.14 0.3 0.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.8 112.2 33.8 17.6 11.5 26.6 17.7 27.1 26.4Yuzhou Properties 1628 HK 3.55 1.7 3.4 4.8 4.0 4.0 n.a. 3.2 4.7 4.6 7.1 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.7Zhong An 672 HK 0.65 0.2 0.1 n.a. n.a. 10.8 29.4 15.4 12.4 10.4 7.2 9.1 16.6 6.1 13.5A v erage** 5.2 5.9 7.4 17.5 17.7 10.3 8.2 7.2 25.6 9.7 7.5 7.5

A v erage (Ov erall)@ 7.4 6.7 8.1 32.4 19.1 10.4 8.1 7.2 15.9 8.7 10.7 10.8HSI Index HSI 23.1 18.2 13.6 11.7 11.0 11.3 11.1 14.3 12.3

28-A pr

Industry Focus


Share price performance

Source: Thomson Reuters

Price Performance 20071-wk 2-wk 1-mth 2-mth 3-mth 4-mth 5-mth 6-mth YTD 1-y r 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 high

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %Tier 1 play ersChina Overseas 688 HK (0.9) (3.0) (0.2) (5.4) (1.5) 10.5 0.2 (6.2) 10.0 (9.6) 78.0 (5.6) 5.7 21.5 (24.4) 20.4Country Garden 2007 HK (3.9) (4.4) 3.1 33.1 65.9 73.3 73.3 80.5 70.5 138.7 46.4 15.3 (32.8) 2.6 36.5 (42.7)CR Land 1109 HK 0.5 (5.1) (1.4) 1.9 11.7 24.0 13.1 11.0 23.9 13.8 69.1 (8.9) 6.4 14.2 (22.8) 4.3China Vanke 'H' 2202 HK (3.9) (8.4) (10.9) 1.2 (0.3) 13.1 (16.2) (2.0) 11.5 (0.1) n.a. n.a. n.a. 32.4 (22.7) n.a.Evergrande 3333 HK (8.0) 0.4 30.3 42.5 53.0 73.8 55.3 59.5 72.0 41.6 32.0 (30.4) 6.1 117.2 (29.2) n.a.Longfor Properties 960 HK 0.9 (2.0) 0.7 8.5 20.1 39.3 30.9 29.1 37.0 22.5 72.9 (28.6) (7.8) 15.7 (14.9) n.a.Shimao Property 813 HK (1.7) (5.7) (2.6) 12.2 19.7 24.8 21.1 19.7 23.3 15.3 120.5 21.9 (2.7) (20.5) (26.4) (57.0)A v erage (2.4) (4.0) 2.7 13.4 24.1 37.0 25.4 27.4 35.5 31.7 69.8 (6.1) (4.2) 26.2 (14.9) (18.7)

T ier 2 play ersAgile Property 3383 HK (2.1) (4.7) (1.3) 35.9 67.3 74.9 57.5 64.5 76.2 57.8 56.6 (23.8) (46.9) (2.0) (8.6) (64.7)China South City 1668 HK 1.3 (5.0) (6.7) (6.2) (9.0) (3.8) (11.1) (12.1) (6.2) 2.7 17.0 88.0 60.9 (50.6) (7.4) n.a.COGO 81 HK (5.9) (11.9) 0.0 38.5 53.5 58.3 37.1 41.5 57.7 60.2 105.6 (20.7) (46.7) (16.8) (22.9) (12.2)China J inmao Hldgs 817 HK (1.2) (2.3) (3.4) 4.6 10.0 23.5 19.4 17.2 20.6 14.0 85.9 (3.2) (17.4) 19.4 (21.1) (59.6)Greentown 3900 HK (1.4) (4.1) (2.5) 5.5 16.7 19.9 14.9 18.2 19.1 31.0 321.4 (16.6) (35.0) 0.0 (18.4) (61.8)GZ R&F 2777 HK (1.9) (4.8) 5.3 22.2 31.3 44.4 32.2 19.5 39.7 18.9 110.1 (12.1) (16.3) 0.6 (1.8) (69.8)Hopson Dev 754 HK 3.9 (2.6) 4.4 5.4 8.0 9.0 5.7 5.2 7.4 (1.3) 207.2 (24.6) (24.0) 8.7 (10.5) (76.3)KWG 1813 HK 0.2 (4.7) 2.8 20.0 31.3 39.0 32.1 30.7 33.6 24.5 122.2 (26.1) 33.5 13.1 (17.8) (53.6)Logan Property 3380 HK (2.6) (3.9) 15.8 33.1 41.1 53.8 46.2 41.6 52.2 48.7 n.a. n.a. 10.0 9.1 11.4 n.a.Poly HK 119 HK (1.8) (5.6) (3.6) (2.1) 5.3 26.6 27.6 27.1 24.1 51.2 79.8 (31.7) (22.9) (20.7) 1.6 (72.1)Sino-Ocean 3377 HK (2.6) (5.0) (5.0) (1.6) 13.1 13.1 11.8 15.5 9.5 6.4 60.8 (12.1) (13.4) 12.7 (30.2) (74.7)SOHO China 410 HK 0.2 (1.9) 0.2 5.5 7.6 10.7 3.7 4.7 11.0 8.7 20.3 7.4 (18.0) (31.4) 1.6 (64.4)Sunac China 1918 HK (8.6) (14.2) (0.6) 25.7 46.5 58.7 71.0 92.4 57.2 101.2 272.7 (22.5) 69.7 (24.0) 7.5 n.a.Yanlord Land YLLG SP (1.9) (3.9) 3.3 27.5 33.9 38.4 33.9 33.9 40.5 53.3 59.2 (19.4) (15.1) (3.4) 31.3 (56.0)Yuexiu Property 123 HK (1.5) (6.4) 0.0 4.8 15.8 24.5 18.9 17.9 24.5 16.8 118.8 (22.0) (16.8) (10.1) (20.9) (54.2)A v erage (1.7) (5.2) 0.2 13.2 22.9 30.1 23.6 24.2 28.5 28.9 113.9 (11.1) (8.5) (0.9) (8.4) (61.2)

T ier 3 play ersBJ Cap. Land 2868 HK (0.3) (3.8) 4.1 12.8 22.7 31.3 23.9 25.6 29.9 22.7 110.5 (18.0) 11.4 20.7 (18.0) (49.3)BJ North Star 588 HK 0.0 (4.4) 1.3 8.3 22.4 26.5 16.7 15.3 26.5 22.9 82.6 (16.7) 41.1 3.6 (7.0) (61.9)C C Land 1224 HK (1.0) (1.0) (2.4) (14.4) (14.0) (7.7) (7.4) (3.8) (10.2) (11.8) 88.9 (28.3) (30.7) 79.2 (6.6) (87.9)Central China 832 HK (4.0) (3.6) 2.2 8.6 9.8 13.1 11.8 9.2 12.4 25.8 76.8 (12.8) (26.8) (7.4) 4.3 n.a.China SCE Property 1966 HK (0.7) (2.6) (2.0) 4.3 18.1 27.3 16.2 24.6 26.2 78.2 20.2 16.2 (12.4) 8.0 33.1 n.a.CIF I Holdings 884 HK (5.4) (8.8) (6.6) 8.1 28.3 38.4 27.1 21.6 34.4 42.6 n.a. 17.1 (6.1) 12.3 20.8 n.a.F irst Sponsor FSG SP (0.4) (1.5) (2.9) (0.8) (1.1) (1.1) (0.8) 1.9 (1.1) 10.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.8 6.0 n.a.Glorious Property 845 HK 0.0 (4.2) 3.4 2.2 23.0 18.2 (25.4) (5.2) 19.7 2.2 7.4 14.4 (28.1) (25.0) (15.6) n.a.Hydoo Int'l 1396 HK 9.9 6.8 16.4 5.4 18.2 34.5 8.3 0.0 34.5 (16.1) n.a. n.a. (13.5) (44.0) (46.3) n.a.Kaisa Group 1638 HK (6.0) (10.4) (6.4) 49.4 49.4 49.4 49.4 49.4 49.4 49.4 79.1 4.2 (36.4) (1.9) 0.0 n.a.Lai Fung 1125 HK 1.9 0.0 (1.8) 2.9 12.5 33.3 33.3 35.0 34.2 74.2 25.5 (5.3) (19.9) (17.2) 23.8 (53.7)Minmetals Land 230 HK (3.1) (7.8) (5.0) (1.0) 2.2 0.0 (3.1) (3.1) 2.2 18.8 70.7 (19.5) (13.6) 1.1 3.3 (74.4)Modern Land (China) 1107 HK (2.3) (4.5) (2.3) 4.1 8.5 27.0 23.3 17.6 23.3 (14.8) n.a. n.a. 1.6 98.4 (53.2) n.a.Powerlong 1238 HK 11.2 9.6 20.4 40.8 59.8 64.1 55.1 42.4 60.5 119.2 58.7 0.6 (34.3) 50.5 39.0 n.a.Renhe Commercial 1387 HK 3.6 0.5 (2.0) (9.5) 0.5 (1.0) 1.0 (1.5) 0.0 (28.9) (8.9) (38.9) (28.1) 5.9 (44.7) n.a.Greenland 337 HK (0.8) (6.7) 17.3 13.1 45.1 28.7 20.1 25.5 30.1 (11.0) 53.5 90.4 (18.3) (1.9) (36.1) (66.4)SRE Group 1207 HK (0.5) (2.1) (6.0) (6.0) (4.1) (20.7) (11.3) (16.1) (5.5) (22.0) 24.2 (32.9) (20.8) 73.8 (45.5) (94.5)Sunshine 100 China 2608 HK (7.4) (6.5) (8.8) (12.5) 3.4 (2.3) (4.4) (7.1) (18.4) (12.7) n.a. n.a. n.a. 21.7 4.8 n.a.Times Property 1233 HK (2.2) (0.6) 1.1 16.3 34.5 40.4 47.3 50.6 43.0 69.4 n.a. n.a. (5.7) (18.2) 40.4 n.a.Wuzhou Int'l 1369 HK (1.3) (1.3) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 (1.3) 1.3 (4.8) n.a. n.a. 14.0 (44.9) (3.7) n.a.Ying Li YINGLI SP (4.1) (9.1) (10.8) (12.5) (12.5) (8.5) (9.1) (15.7) (6.0) (0.7) 45.1 6.8 (38.0) (32.2) (10.2) (88.3)Yuzhou Properties 1628 HK 1.4 (0.6) 7.3 31.5 39.2 38.1 24.1 22.4 31.5 63.6 37.1 2.9 1.0 7.7 28.6 n.a.Zhong An 672 HK 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 1.6 (3.0) (9.7) 1.6 (7.1) 7.5 26.3 (20.8) (28.9) (21.0) (88.7)A v erage (0.4) (2.6) 1.9 8.3 18.6 21.3 15.4 14.7 20.8 22.9 48.9 0.9 (13.5) 6.9 (4.5) (69.8)

A v erage (Ov erall) (1.1) (3.7) 1.4 10.8 20.9 26.7 19.8 19.9 25.6 26.3 78.8 (4.9) (10.4) 6.9 (7.4) (58.2)

Hang Seng Index 2.4 1.5 1.1 3.7 5.4 13.1 7.8 7.2 11.9 15.1 22.9 2.9 1.3 (7.2) 0.4 (22.2)MSCI China 1.9 2.2 2.0 5.4 9.1 18.0 11.4 10.1 16.7 19.7 18.7 0.4 4.7 (10.1) (1.4) (34.3)

Industry Focus


Discount to NAV

Sector average (DBSV coverage only) Agile Property (3383 HK)

Central China (832 HK) China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK)

China Overseas (688 HK) COGO (81 HK)


(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

Oct

-06

Jul-

08

Ap

r-1

0

Jan

-12

Oct

-13

Jul-

15

Ap

r-1

7

%

M

+2SD: -10.8%

+1SD: -25.7%Mean: -40.7%

-1SD: -55.6%-2SD: -70.6% (100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

Jul-

08

Dec

-09

Jun

-11

No

v-1

2

May

-14

No

v-1

5

Ap

r-1

7

%

+1SD -33.5%

Avg: -54.8%

-1SD -76.2%

(100)

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

Jan

-09

Mar

-10

May

-11

Jul-

12

Oct

-13

Dec

-14

Feb

-16

Ap

r-1

7

%

Avg: -67.4%

+1SD -60.5%

-1SD -74.3%

(80)

(75)

(70)

(65)

(60)

(55)

(50)

(45)

(40)

(35)

(30)

No

v-0

9

Dec

-10

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Feb

-14

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

7

%

+1SD -44.4%

Avg: -52.4%

-1SD -60.4%

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

Jan

-05

Dec

-05

No

v-0

6

No

v-0

7

Oct

-08

Sep

-09

Sep

-10

Au

g-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Jul-

13

Jun

-14

Jun

-15

May

-16

Ap

r-1

7

%

+1SD 2.6%

Avg: -13.8%

-1SD -30.2%

(90)

(80)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

Jan

-10

Jun

-11

Dec

-12

May

-14

No

v-1

5

Ap

r-1

7

%

+1SD -35%

Avg: -53%

-1SD -71%

Industry Focus


Discount to NAV (continued)

CR Land (1109 HK) China Vanke (2202 HK)

Country Garden (2007 HK) Evergrande (3333 HK)

Greenland (337 HK) Longfor (960 HK)


(80)(70)(60)(50)(40)(30)(20)(10)

0 10 20 30

Jan

-05

Jul-

06

Feb

-08

Au

g-0

9

Mar

-11

Sep

-12

Mar

-14

Oct

-15

Ap

r-1

7

%

+1SD -15.2%

Avg: -29.2%

-1SD -43.3%

(40)(35)(30)(25)(20)(15)(10)(5)0 5

10 15

Jun

-15

No

v-1

5

Mar

-16

Au

g-1

6

Dec

-16

Ap

r-1

7

%

+1SD -6.4%

Avg: -14.4%

-1SD -22.3%

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan

-09

Mar

-10

May

-11

Jul-

12

Oct

-13

Dec

-14

Feb

-16

Ap

r-1

7

%

+1SD -9.7%

Avg: -30%

-1SD -50.3%

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

No

v-0

9

May

-11

No

v-1

2

May

-14

Oct

-15

Ap

r-1

7

%

+1SD -39.1%

Avg: -53.1%

-1SD -67.1%

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40 60

80

100

No

v-0

8

Au

g-1

0

Ap

r-1

2

Dec

-13

Au

g-1

5

Ap

r-1

7

%

+1SD -14.6%

Avg: -44.1%

-1SD -73.6%

(55)

(50)

(45)

(40)

(35)

(30)

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Mar

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

%

Avg: -43%

+1SD -39.6%

-1SD -46.4%

Industry Focus


Discount to NAV (continued)

Shimao Property (813 HK) Sino-Ocean Land (3377 HK)

SOHO China (410 HK) Yuexiu Property (123 HK)

Yanlord Land (YLLG SP)


(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

Mar

-07

Mar

-09

Mar

-11

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

7

%

+1SD -24.9%

Avg: -42.4%

-1SD -59.9%

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

Oct

-07

Dec

-08

Feb

-10

May

-11

Jul-

12

Sep

-13

Dec

-14

Feb

-16

Ap

r-1

7

%

+1SD -20.9%Avg: -41.1%

-1SD -61.3%

(80)(60)(40)(20)

0 20 40 60 80

100 120

Oct

-07

Dec

-08

Feb

-10

May

-11

Jul-

12

Sep

-13

Dec

-14

Feb

-16

Ap

r-1

7

%

+1SD -18%

Avg: -38.4%

-1SD -58.8%(75)

(70)

(65)

(60)

(55)

(50)

(45)

(40)

(35)

Feb

-13

Dec

-13

Oct

-14

Au

g-1

5

Jun

-16

Ap

r-1

7

%

+1SD -52%

Avg: -58%

-1SD -64%

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

Oct

-07

Dec

-08

Feb

-10

May

-11

Jul-

12

Sep

-13

Dec

-14

Feb

-16

Ap

r-1

7

%

+1SD -25.8%

Avg: -42%

-1SD -58.2%

Industry Focus


PE charts

Sector average Agile Property (3383 HK)




(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan

-05

Jul-

06

Feb

-08

Au

g-0

9

Mar

-11

Sep

-12

Mar

-14

Oct

-15

Ap

r-1

7

x

+2SD: 19x

+1SD: 13.9x

Mean: 8.8x

-1SD: 3.7x

-2SD: -1.3x 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Dec

-05

Sep

-07

May

-09

Feb

-11

Oct

-12

Jul-

14

Ap

r-1

6

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 6.8x

+1SD: 8.9x

-1SD: 4.8x

0123456789

10

Jun

-08

Jan

-10

Au

g-1

1

Mar

-13

Oct

-14

May

-16

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 5.2x

+1SD: 6.5x

-1SD: 3.9x

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Au

g-0

7

May

-09

Jan

-11

Oct

-12

Jul-

14

Ap

r-1

6

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 8.7x

+1SD: 13.3x

-1SD: 4.2x

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan

-05

Mar

-06

May

-07

Jul-

08

Sep

-09

No

v-1

0

Feb

-12

Ap

r-1

3

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-16

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 9.7x

+1SD: 14.5x

-1SD: 5x-10-505

10152025303540

Jan

-99

Mar

-02

May

-05

Jun

-08

Au

g-1

1

Oct

-14

Dec

-17

x 190x (Dec-07)

Avg: 7.8x

+1SD: 18.6x

-1SD: -2.9x

Industry Focus


PE charts (continued)


Country Garden (2007 HK) China Evergrande (3333 HK)



05

101520253035404550

Jan

-05

Mar

-06

May

-07

Jul-

08

Sep

-09

No

v-1

0

Feb

-12

Ap

r-1

3

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-16

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 11.4x

+1SD: 18x

-1SD: 4.8x

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

Jun

-14

Dec

-14

Jun

-15

Dec

-15

Jun

-16

Dec

-16

Jun

-17

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 8.6x

+1SD: 9.5x

-1SD: 7.8x

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ap

r-0

7

Jun

-09

Jul-

11

Sep

-13

No

v-1

5

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 13.9x

+1SD: 31.7x

-1SD: -3.8x0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

No

v-0

9

Jun

-11

Feb

-13

Sep

-14

May

-16

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 5.6x

-1SD: 2.9x

+1SD: 8.3x

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Oct

-06

Mar

-08

Jul-

09

Dec

-10

May

-12

Oct

-13

Mar

-15

Au

g-1

6

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 9.6x

+1SD: 18.6x

-1SD: 0.7x

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

No

v-1

2

No

v-1

3

No

v-1

4

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

6

x

Avg: 6.5x

+1SD: 7.5x

-1SD: 5.5x

Industry Focus


PE charts (continued)



Yanlord (YLLG SP)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jul-

06

Jun

-08

May

-10

Ap

r-1

2

Mar

-14

Jan

-16

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 9.3x

+1SD: 18.2x

-1SD: 0.4x 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sep

-07

Jun

-09

Feb

-11

No

v-1

2

Jul-

14

Ap

r-1

6

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 10x

+1SD: 15x

-1SD: 5x

-100

102030405060708090

Oct

-07

Jun

-09

Mar

-11

No

v-1

2

Jul-

14

Ap

r-1

6

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 15.8x

+1SD: 33.3x

-1SD: -1.8x

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan

-03

Dec

-05

Dec

-08

Dec

-11

Dec

-14

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 8x

+1SD: 12.9x

-1SD: 3.1x

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jun

-06

Feb

-08

Oct

-09

May

-11

Jan

-13

Sep

-14

May

-16

Dec

-17

x

+1SD: 14.6x

Avg: 9.3x

-1SD: 4x

Industry Focus


PB charts

Sector average Agile Property (3383 HK)




(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan

-05

Jul-

06

Feb

-08

Au

g-0

9

Mar

-11

Sep

-12

Mar

-14

Oct

-15

Ap

r-1

7

x

Mean 1.0x

+1SD 1.5x

-1SD 0.5x

+2SD 2.1x

-2SD -0.06x0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Dec

-05

Sep

-07

May

-09

Feb

-11

Oct

-12

Jul-

14

Ap

r-1

6

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 1.2x

+1SD: 2.1x

-1SD: 0.4x

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jun

-08

Jan

-10

Au

g-1

1

Mar

-13

Oct

-14

May

-16

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 0.7x

+1SD: 0.9x

-1SD: 0.5x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Au

g-0

7

May

-09

Jan

-11

Oct

-12

Jul-

14

Ap

r-1

6

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 0.9x

+1SD: 1.3x

-1SD: 0.5x

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0

Jan

-05

Mar

-06

May

-07

Jul-

08

Sep

-09

No

v-1

0

Feb

-12

Ap

r-1

3

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-16

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 1.7x

+1SD: 2.5x

-1SD: 0.9x0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan

-99

Mar

-02

May

-05

Jun

-08

Au

g-1

1

Oct

-14

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 0.8x

+1SD: 1.3x

-1SD: 0.2x

Industry Focus


PB charts (continued)


Country Garden (2007 HK) China Evergrande (3333 HK)



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan

-05

Mar

-06

May

-07

Jul-

08

Sep

-09

No

v-1

0

Feb

-12

Ap

r-1

3

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-16

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 1.3x

+1SD: 1.7x

-1SD: 0.8x

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

Jun

-14

Dec

-14

Jun

-15

Dec

-15

Jun

-16

Dec

-16

Jun

-17

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 1.6x

+1SD: 1.7x

-1SD: 1.4x

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Ap

r-0

7

Jun

-09

Jul-

11

Sep

-13

No

v-1

5

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 1.9x

+1SD: 3.4x

-1SD: 0.3x 0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

No

v-0

9

Jun

-11

Feb

-13

Sep

-14

May

-16

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 1.2x

-1SD: 0.8x

+1SD: 1.6x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Oct

-06

Mar

-08

Jul-

09

Dec

-10

May

-12

Oct

-13

Mar

-15

Au

g-1

6

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 0.9x

+1SD: 1.5x

-1SD: 0.4x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

No

v-1

2

No

v-1

3

No

v-1

4

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

6

x

Avg: 1.3x

+1SD: 1.8x

-1SD: 0.9x

Industry Focus


PB charts (continued)



Yanlord (YLLG SP)


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jul-

06

Jun

-08

May

-10

Ap

r-1

2

Mar

-14

Jan

-16

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 1.2x

+1SD: 1.8x

-1SD: 0.6x0.2

0.7

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

Sep

-07

Jun

-09

Feb

-11

No

v-1

2

Jul-

14

Ap

r-1

6

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 0.8x

+1SD: 1.2x

-1SD: 0.4x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Oct

-07

Jun

-09

Mar

-11

No

v-1

2

Jul-

14

Ap

r-1

6

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 0.9x

+1SD: 1.2x

-1SD: 0.5x0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan

-03

Dec

-05

Dec

-08

Dec

-11

Dec

-14

Dec

-17

x

Avg: 0.6x

+1SD: 0.8x

-1SD: 0.4x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jun

-06

Feb

-08

Oct

-09

May

-11

Jan

-13

Sep

-14

May

-16

Dec

-17

x

+1SD: 1.9x

Avg: 1.1x

-1SD: 0.3x

Industry Focus


DBSVHK recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:

STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)

HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)

FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)

SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)

Share price appreciation + dividends Completed Date: 28 Apr 2017 14:22:30 (HKT) Dissemination Date: 28 Apr 2017 16:54:32 (HKT)

Sources for all charts and tables are DBS Vickers unless otherwise specified.

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBSVHK”). This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd., DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd. (“DBSVS”) and DBSVHK, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVHK. The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS and DBSVHK, its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively, the “DBS Group”)) have not conducted due diligence on any of the companies, verified any information or sources or taken into account any other factors which we may consider to be relevant or appropriate in preparing the research. Accordingly, we do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the research set out in this report. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group, may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed, it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report and the DBS Group is under no obligation to update the information in this report. This publication has not been reviewed or authorized by any regulatory authority in Singapore, Hong Kong or elsewhere. There is no planned schedule or frequency for updating research publication relating to any issuer. The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that: (a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and (b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk

assessments stated therein. Please contact the primary analyst for valuation methodologies and assumptions associated with the covered companies or price targets. Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies) mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the commodity referred to in this report. DBSVUSA, a US-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, has not participated in any public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months and does not engage in market-making.

Industry Focus


ANALYST CERTIFICATION

The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the

companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst(s) also certifies that no part of his/her

compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. The research analyst (s)

primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that he or his associate1 does not serve as an officer of the

issuer or the new listing applicant (which includes in the case of a real estate investment trust, an officer of the management company of the real

estate investment trust; and in the case of any other entity, an officer or its equivalent counterparty of the entity who is responsible for the

management of the issuer or the new listing applicant) and the research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report or

his associate does not have financial interests2 in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant that the analyst reviews. DBS Group has

procedures in place to eliminate, avoid and manage any potential conflicts of interests that may arise in connection with the production of

research reports. The research analyst(s) responsible for this report operates as part of a separate and independent team to the investment

banking function of the DBS Group and procedures are in place to ensure that confidential information held by either the research or investment

banking function is handled appropriately. There is no direct link of DBS Group's compensation to any specific investment banking function of the

DBS Group. COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES 1. DBSVHK and its subsidiaries do not have a proprietary position in the securities recommended/mentioned in this report as of 27 Apr

2017.

2. Neither DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK nor DBSV HK market makes in equity securities of the issuer(s) or company(ies) mentioned in this Research Report.

3. Compensation for investment banking services: DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVHK, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have received compensation, within the past 12 months for investment banking services from China South City Holdings Limited (1668 HK), China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (81 HK), China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK), Yanlord Land Group Limited (YLLG SP), Yuexiu Property Company Limited (123 HK) and Central China Real Estate Limited (832 HK) as of 31 Mar 2017. DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVHK, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for China South City Holdings Limited (1668 HK), China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK), Yanlord Land Group Limited (YLLG SP) and Yuexiu Property Company Limited (123 HK) in the past 12 months, as of 31 Mar 2017. DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.

4. Disclosure of previous investment recommendation produced: DBS Bank Ltd, DBSVS, DBSVHK, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA may have published other investment recommendations in respect of the same securities / instruments recommended in this research report during the preceding 12 months. Please contact the primary analyst listed in the first page of this report to view previous investment recommendations published by DBS Bank Ltd, DBSVHK, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA in the preceding 12 months.

1 An associate is defined as (i) the spouse, or any minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, of the analyst; (ii) the

trustee of a trust of which the analyst, his spouse, minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, is a beneficiary or discretionary object; or (iii) another person accustomed or obliged to act in accordance with the directions or instructions of the analyst.

2 Financial interest is defined as interests that are commonly known financial interest, such as investment in the securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant, or financial accommodation arrangement between the issuer or the new listing applicant and the firm or analysis. This term does not include commercial lending conducted at arm's length, or investments in any collective investment scheme other than an issuer or new listing applicant notwithstanding the fact that the scheme has investments in securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant.

Industry Focus


RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION

General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Australia This report is being distributed in Australia by DBS Bank Ltd. (“DBS”) or DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”) or DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBSVHK”), which are exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporation Act 2001 (“CA”) in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. Both DBS and DBSVS are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the laws of Singapore, and DBSVHK is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong under the laws of Hong Kong, which differ from Australian laws. Distribution of this report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.

Hong Kong This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by DBSVHK which is licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.

Indonesia This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas Indonesia.

Malaysia This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR"). Recipients of this report, received from ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2604 3333 in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found at the preceding page, recipients of this report are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company Alliance Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers, employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies.

Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR

Singapore This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company Regn No. 198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

Thailand This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd. Research reports distributed are only intended for institutional clients only and no other person may act upon it.

United Kingdom

This report is produced by DBSVHK which is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. This report is disseminated in the United Kingdom by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd (“DBSVUK”). DBSVUK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. In respect of the United Kingdom, this report is solely intended for the clients of DBSVUK, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVUK. This communication is directed at persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment activity following from this communication will only be engaged in with such persons. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on this communication.

Dubai

This research report is being distributed in The Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”) by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) having its office at PO Box 506538, 3rd Floor, Building 3, East Wing, Gate Precinct, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research report is intended only for professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it.

United States This report was prepared by DBSVHK. DBSVUSA did not participate in its preparation. The research analyst(s) named on this report are not registered as research analysts with FINRA and are not associated persons of DBSVUSA. The research analyst(s) are not subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on analyst compensation, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst. This report is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which accepts responsibility for its contents. This report may only be distributed to Major U.S. Institutional Investors (as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) and to such other institutional investors and qualified persons as DBSVUSA may authorize. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate.

Other jurisdictions

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DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited

18th Floor Man Yee building, 68 Des Voeux Road Central, Central, Hong Kong

Tel: (852) 2820-4888, Fax: (852) 2868-1523

Company Regn. No. 31758

china / hong kong industry focus china property sector [email protected] danielle wang cfa, ... china...

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