China and the Latin AmericChina and the Latin America: Interest Change and Cooa: Interest Change and Coo

peration Potentialperation Potential

Chai, Yu (Ph.D, Prof.)Chai, Yu (Ph.D, Prof.)The Institute of Latin AmericaThe Institute of Latin America

The Chinese Academy of Social SciencesThe Chinese Academy of Social SciencesMay 26, 2010May 26, 2010

Washington D.CWashington D.C

Framework I Framework I

The relations between China and the LatThe relations between China and the Latin America: development and changein America: development and change

__ China’s Economic Development Mo__ China’s Economic Development Modeldel

__ Change in the relations__ Change in the relations __ Feature of the present relations__ Feature of the present relations

Framework IIFramework II

The coordination and cooperation between CThe coordination and cooperation between China and the Latin Americahina and the Latin America

__China’s attitude: concerned and constructi__China’s attitude: concerned and constructive ve

__the way to cooperation__the way to cooperation

China’s Development ModelChina’s Development Model

Inclusive model:Inclusive model: In the future, this model has still to be foIn the future, this model has still to be fo

llowed.llowed. The Latin America: The Latin America: benefited from this model, but not enoubenefited from this model, but not enou

gh.gh.

China: GDP growth

GDP

Domestic investment and FDI ：35 － 40 ％

Export5 － 10 ％Consum

ption ：40 ％

Governmental expenditure ：

15 ％

分享中国的发展—外资渠道

1985-2003 年间 , 外资企业对于总贸易累计增加量的贡献比例为 （进口和出口的总和） 61.64%, 其中，出口为 62.41%, 进口累进增长量的 60.90% 。

1981-2003 年间 , 加工贸易对于中国出口累计增加量的贡献比例为 57.83% 。

2004 － 2007 年间，外企和加工贸易在中国出口增加总额中的贡献比例分别为 46.70% 和 56.56% ；在中国进口中的比例分别为 36.93%和 58.88% 。

Who shares China’s growth?

1993-2009 Increase in Import Share

Increase in Export share

Total 90160477.5 100 110990038.4 100

Asia 54012040.5 59.9 51625370.8 46.5

Africa 4218100.7 4.7 4621852.5 4.2

Europe 13812590.9 15.3 24831892.1 22.4

Latin America 6207694.9 6.9 5529255.3 5

North America 7737355.5 8.6 22049191.4 19.9

Oceania and Pacific islands 4004984 4.4 2370984.5 2.1

Source: calculated on CEIC data by the author.

Which Partners Benefit?

2006-2007, 100million USD 1993 － 2003 , 100million USD

partners increase in partners increase in share import share import Japan 182.77 11.11 Japan 508.55 16.54 Korea 140.02 8.51 Korea 377.75 12.28 TaiWan Taiwanprovince 139.34 8.47 province 364.29 11.85 US 101.82 6.19 US 232.78 7.57 Germany 75.02 4.56 Germany 182.95 5.95 Australia 65.31 3.97 Malaysia 129.03 4.20 Philipines54.43 3.31 Thailand 82.27 2.68 Brazil 54.22 3.29 Singapore 79.15 2.57 Malaysia 51.38 3.12 Philipines 60.93 1.98 Thailand 47.05 2.86 Australia 53.56 1.74 Chile 45.21 2.75 Saudi Arabia 50.76 1.65 India 43.56 2.65 Brazil 49.82 1.62 Iran 33.55 2.04 Russia 48.68 1.58 Canada 33.18 2.02 France 44.57 1.45 Total 1645.78 100 　 Total 3080 100.00

中国在全球经济中的角色

NIEs：台湾，韩国和香港

日本

美国和

欧盟市场

中国

更多资源丰富国家的加入

The prospect for inclusive model: -1

1 ） labor cost increases. Since 2008 when new labor law has been implemented, the cost increases by 40-50%. RMB appreciates by 21% since 2005.

2 ） in the future, labor-seeking investment would decrease but market seeking investment would increase.

3 ） In the next 10 years （ 12-15 years), China’s export would be limited by some articles in the WTO accession protocol, eg. Safeguard mechanisms on transitional product-specific for 12 years, nonmarket economy status for 15 years, special safeguard mechanis

m for textile products, transitional Review Mechanism for 8 years.

——2

Restraints from the external market. Exports expand by 20% per year in the last two decades. China is the first economy affected by trade protectionism.

Transforming ways of economic development.

conclusion ： inclusive model would be continued.China means

opportunity, not threat.

中国成为最大受害者

大国成为主体

发展中国家值得关注

（ 3 ）传统中国经济增长方式面临挑战

低成本、高投入、高污染的传统经济增长方式难以为继；

廉价劳动力不应该，也不会是我们长久的竞争源泉—因为发展经济的目的就是要改善人们的生活，提高人民的工资。

同时，经济的发展也意味着资源的节约和环境保护的加强。

方向

共享发展模式 人民共享模式 环境友好模式

中国的新作用和地位

一方面，在国际上，中国的对外经济的发展已经冲击到了整个国际经济秩序的边界——贸易不平衡，金融体系以及美元的地位；贸易扩张以及盈余，引发保护主义，冲击国际贸易体系；中国的经济崛起冲击现有的全球治理结构。中国的地位和作用如何？

另一方面，国内经济的发展却还沉重的经济以及社会转型的压力。。。

中国进入到了一个发展的关键时期。

Change in the relations 1Change in the relations 1

Historical connection:Historical connection:__In the 5th century AD__In the 5th century AD ，， Chinese monks Chinese monks

have been Mexico.have been Mexico.__In the Ming dynasty, __In the Ming dynasty, silk way on the seasilk way on the sea..

Change in the relations 2Change in the relations 2

In 1950’s, non-governmental contacts. In 1950’s, non-governmental contacts. Accumulative development with steady steps.Accumulative development with steady steps. cultural and trade delegationcultural and trade delegation in 1960, diplomatic relations were established bin 1960, diplomatic relations were established b

etween China and Cuba.etween China and Cuba. In this period, China’s goal is keeping contaIn this period, China’s goal is keeping conta

ct and building understanding, in order to resuct and building understanding, in order to resume her seat in the UN.me her seat in the UN.

Change in the relations 3Change in the relations 3 In 1970’s, 12 countries have established diplomatic rIn 1970’s, 12 countries have established diplomatic r

elations with China. Cultural, economic and trade linkelations with China. Cultural, economic and trade links have been expanded.s have been expanded.

China also resumed the seat in the UN, and establisheChina also resumed the seat in the UN, and established diplomatic relations with the US.d diplomatic relations with the US.

In this period, China’s interest lied in exploring more In this period, China’s interest lied in exploring more room for international activities. room for international activities.

In the above periods, China takes more political factorIn the above periods, China takes more political factors into considerations in the relations.s into considerations in the relations.

Change in the relations 4Change in the relations 4

1978-2000, with China’s openness, 1978-2000, with China’s openness, economic and trade contacts have increased greconomic and trade contacts have increased gr

eatly.eatly. Dengxiaoping: Dengxiaoping: the issues we face now is peace the issues we face now is peace

and developmentand development.. By the end of 1990s, 19 countries have diplomaBy the end of 1990s, 19 countries have diploma

tic ties with China.tic ties with China. Since then, economic interest has become the Since then, economic interest has become the

driving force of the relations.driving force of the relations.

Change in the relations 5Change in the relations 5 Since the beginning of the new century, a mulSince the beginning of the new century, a mul

ti-directional, multilevel and wide-range relatiti-directional, multilevel and wide-range relations are shown to us. It has made a big step in ons are shown to us. It has made a big step in the relations between two parties.the relations between two parties.

Hu jingtao: Hu jingtao: China-Latin America cooperation faces uChina-Latin America cooperation faces unprecedented historical opportunities (2004)nprecedented historical opportunities (2004). .

The goal for China is to build and develop a coThe goal for China is to build and develop a comprehensive and cooperative partnership featmprehensive and cooperative partnership featuring equality, mutual benefit and common deuring equality, mutual benefit and common development. velopment.

Feature of the present situationFeature of the present situation Strategic partnership: Brazil, Mexico, Argentin, Peru, Chile, CStrategic partnership: Brazil, Mexico, Argentin, Peru, Chile, C

uba, Venezuela.uba, Venezuela. Multi-directional: south, middle and Carribean.Multi-directional: south, middle and Carribean. Multilevel: political, economic, cultural, security, and 30 fieldMultilevel: political, economic, cultural, security, and 30 field

s.s. --Political: 21 countries have diplomatic relations with C--Political: 21 countries have diplomatic relations with C

hina. Bilateral, multilateral and international dialogue hina. Bilateral, multilateral and international dialogue and consultation mechanisms.and consultation mechanisms.

--Economic: trade and investment increased greatly. --Economic: trade and investment increased greatly. TraTrade angel de angel and infrastructure aider.and infrastructure aider.

--Cultural: confusion college, sister cities, etc.--Cultural: confusion college, sister cities, etc. --Security: military exchanges, judicial and police coope--Security: military exchanges, judicial and police coope

ration,nontraditional security.ration,nontraditional security.

China and Latin America: 60 yearsChina and Latin America: 60 years

source: the relations between China and Latin America in the past 60 years,source: the relations between China and Latin America in the past 60 years, Zhengbingwen, Sunhongbo and Yueyunxia.Zhengbingwen, Sunhongbo and Yueyunxia.

The coordination and cooperation between The coordination and cooperation between China and the Latin AmericaChina and the Latin America

__China’s attitude: concerned and const__China’s attitude: concerned and constructiveructive

““Now the humane man, wishing himself to be Now the humane man, wishing himself to be established, sees that others are established, aestablished, sees that others are established, and, wishing himself to be successful, sees that nd, wishing himself to be successful, sees that others are successful.” Analects of Confusius others are successful.” Analects of Confusius (551BC-479BC) (551BC-479BC)

The coordination and cooperation betwThe coordination and cooperation between China and the Latin Americaeen China and the Latin America

__the way ahead__the way ahead* Dialogue and Consultation: deepen mutual un* Dialogue and Consultation: deepen mutual un

derstandingderstanding* Economic integration: inclusive development, * Economic integration: inclusive development,

eg. ASEANeg. ASEAN* China and the US: mechnism with Japan, Kore* China and the US: mechnism with Japan, Kore

a, Spain, etc. Capacity building.a, Spain, etc. Capacity building.