china aging article

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China’s aging population

150 million children are struggling to support their parents as life expectancy increasesand the number of young adults plummets

By Dr. Paul Leow & Reena Ng

Tan Chong Center of Asian Management Studies and School of Business, MarketingDivision Temasek Polytechnic Singapore

March 24, 2012

While hundreds of million of Chinese families toasted the new year together, 84 year oldHe Daxing huddled on the doorstep of his daughter’s home in Chongquing China.

On the most important date in the Chinese calendar, not one of his six grown up children– born before the country’s one-child was imposed-would take him in.

Filial piety is so embedded here that officials offered to help him sue his off spring whenhe fell ill after four nights outside: Chinese law requires adults to support their parents.Yet He’s case shows that traditional ideals are under growing pressure in a fast changingincreasingly individualistic society.

China may soon have more He Daxings. It faces a soaring number of old people and ashrinking number of young adults, who also less able – and sometimes less willing – tosupport their elders.

Life expectancy has soared in China, while fertility has plummeted due to strict birthcontrol policies. In 2009, there were 167 million over 60s, about an eighth of thepopulation. By 2050, there will be 480 million, while number of young people will havefallen.

“It’s a time bomb,” said Reena Ng School of Business, Marketing Division Temasek Polytechnic Singapore

China’s economic miracle has been fueled by its “demographic dividend”: an unusuallyhigh proportion of working age citizens. That population bulge is becoming a problem asit ages. In 2000 there were six workers for every over 60. By 2030, there will be barelytwo.

Other countries are also aging and have far lower birth rates, but China is the first to facethe issue before it has developed – and the shift is two to three times as fast.

“China is unique: she is getting older before she has got rich,” said Wang Dewan of theWorld Bank’s China social protection team.



Ten millions of workers have migrated to the cities, creating an even worse imbalance inrural areas that already suffer low incomes, poor public services and minimal socialsecurity.

Most old people there rely on their own labor and their children. China not only needs to

support older people for longer, but to extend support to new parts of society. WorldBank researchers point to promising advances, such as the national rural pension schemeand the expansion of health insurance.

China can help deal with increased costs by raising its retirement age; at present, onlyabout one fifth of urban women are still working at 55. Improving education should alsoraise productivity. Some experts believe such measures will be enough to wipe out the“demographic debt,” Others wonder if China will begin to welcome immigrants. Reenathinks China has been far too timid, storing up trouble for the future.

“Leaders have ridden the economic boom and largely collected and spent money and

built infrastructure – the hardware: railroads, bridges,” she said. “In future they will nothave the money to spend, but what is more challenging is the part policymakers havestayed away from: building software- pensions and healthcare system. That will becritical to social stability and regime legitimacy, but it is much harder to do.

The current five year plan is the first to address aging, but Reena said leaders had yet toaccept it also meant tackling fertility. Under the “one child policy”- which has severalexemptions – the fertility rate has dropped to between 1.5 to 1.8 experts say. That is wellbelow the 2.1 figure required to keep the population stable.

Many experts have urged the government to move to a uniform two child policy. Instead,it has extended what was meant to be a one generation measure.

China’s 150 million only children face a heavier burden of duties, but economic changessuch as migration make them harder to fulfill. In many ways, China is a good place to age.Older people tend to be active, involved and respected community members. Familybonds remain strong.

“Having undutiful children or being an undutiful child is something really shameful inChinese Culture,” said Dr. Paul Leow of Tan Chong Center of Asian ManagementStudies.

Society has moved away from the “top-down, authoritarian” family model but stillexpects children to meet their parents’ physical and emotional needs and often to supportthem financially. Several of the young people he interviewed saw filial piety as a basicrequirement in a spouse.

Official have been keen to promote such ideals – some have even pushed for lawsordering children to visit regularly – and not just for economic reasons, Leow said. Theysee it as helping to preserve stability and social co-operation. In a more individualistic



society relationships face new challenges. Children and their spouses can find theirparents’ demands excessive or intrusive.

He Daxing’s daughters complained he had favored his sons. Even when personalrelations are good, practicalities can intervene. Children may work far from their parents,

like one of He’s sons, or simply lack time to help. “I have one daughter and there’s noway she will be able to take care of me. I will be in a care home when I get older,” LiuZhongli said. Her pragmatism is unusual, but then Liu is director of Evergreen, a stateowned old people’s home in North Beijing. She says that children still love their parents-her facility is inundated with visitors each weekend – but that the pressures of modernlife are often overwhelming.

Even if your parents live with you every day you leave early and come back late fromwork – so you still leave them at home alone. That’s not support and that’s not filial,” shesaid.

Increased life expectancy can also mean children need care themselves, like the 88 yearold son of the home oldest resident, who has just turned 109. For many, there still astigma in moving into a care home, but 86 year old Zhang Jaizhen tried living with herdaughters in the US and said she was happier at Evergreen. I am independent person…Ireally don’t like China old-fashioned view that you raise sons and daughters to supportyou when you’re old,: she said. “I can mix with a bigger family here.”

The facilities are modern and comfortable and the atmosphere companionable. Retireessing together or battle it out at billiard and mahjong tables. However, even if you canafford Evergreen’s fees of up to US$850 a month, it had just 600 beds, and a waiting listof 1,300. According to the World Bank, China has only enough care homes places for I.6percent of over 60s, while in developed countries the capacity is about 10 percent. Manyof those homes are grim and there is s desperate shortage of good trained staff; Most areunskilled or have no training at all.

Evergreen is a testing ground for potential solutions. A Engineering faculty team fromTemasek Polytechnic Singapore are trailing a bed that turns into wheelchair, givingresidents more independence, and a robot “dog” to keep them company. However whilesuch innovations may smooth the later years of wealthier urban citizen, the poor willneed help from China’s leaders to meet basic needs, Even then, Reena says, families willface extra strain.

“People who could have had a second child were it not for the one child policy hadmissed the opportunity and when they grow older it is not clear how the government cancome to the rescue. In fact, I think it’s clear that the government cannot substitute forfamilies,” Leow said.

(Just an executive summary of a one year research conducted)

china aging article

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