china: a case study - rba · 1962 1976 1990 2004 2018 - 30 - 20 - 10 0 10 20 % - 30 - 20 - 10 0 10...
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China: A Case StudyIvan Roberts (Head of Asian Economies Research Unit)
Australia–China TradeExports to China*
Log scale
11 / 1205 / 06 17 / 181
2
4
8
16
32
64
$b
Services
Rural goods
Non-rural goods
Visitor arrivalsShare of total
11 / 1205 / 06 17 / 180
4
8
12
16
20
24
%
China
New Zealand
East Asia**
Values
Excluding China and Japan
Sources: ABS; RBA
2004199019761962 2018-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
China – Annual GDP GrowthPost-war recovery
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
2004199019761962 2018-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
China – Annual GDP Growth
Great Leap Forward
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
2004199019761962 2018-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
China – Annual GDP Growth
Cultural Revolution
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
2004199019761962 2018-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
China – Annual GDP Growth
1980s reforms
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
2004199019761962 2018-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
China – Annual GDP Growth
Late 1980s
austerity campaign
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
2004199019761962 2018-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
China – Annual GDP GrowthDeng Xiaoping's Southern Tour
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
2004199019761962 2018-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
China – Annual GDP Growth
Late 1990s reforms/
WTO entry
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
2004199019761962 2018-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
China – Annual GDP Growth
GFC/stimulus
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
2004199019761962 2018-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
%
China – Annual GDP Growth
Cultural Revolution
GFC/stimulusGreat Leap Forward
Deng Xiaoping's Southern Tour
1980s reforms
Late 1980s
austerity campaign
Late 1990s reforms/
WTO entry
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
20112004199719901983 2018-5
0
5
10
15
20
%
-5
0
5
10
15
20
%
China – GDP Growth by Sector
Industrial
Services
Primary
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
20122007200219971992 20170
15
30
45
60
%
0
15
30
45
60
%
China – Urban EmploymentShare of total
State-owned enterprises
Private enterprises
Mixed ownership
and other enterprises*
Includes joint-owned, shareholding and collective enterprises
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
20112004199719901983 20180
20
40
60
80
%
0
20
40
60
80
%
China – PopulationShare of total
Rural
Urban
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
20502040203020202010200019901980197019601950
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
m
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
m
China – Working Age Population*
Projections
Total
Urban
Defined as aged between 15 and 64
Sources: RBA; UN
20112004199719901983 2018-5
0
5
10
%
-5
0
5
10
%
China – Annual Productivity Growth
Labour productivity
Total factor productivity
Sources: CEIC Data; NBS; RBA
China – Investment Indicators
Capital-to-output ratio
201120042.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
%Marginal product of capital*
20112004 20186
8
10
12
14
%
Net of depreciation
Sources: CEIC Data; NBS; RBA
Consumption
Investment
Net exports
2014201020062002 2018-5
0
5
10
%
-5
0
5
10
%
China – GDP GrowthAnnual with contributions
GDP growth
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
China – Activity Indicators
Real fixed asset investment
growth
Real fixed asset investment
growth
20142009 2019-10
0
10
20
30
40
%
-10
0
10
20
30
40
%
Year-ended
Quarterly
Real retail sales growthReal retail sales growth
20142009 2019-5
0
5
10
15
20
%
-5
0
5
10
15
20
%
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
Business loans
Household loans
Off-balance sheet financing
Securities financing
20172015201320112009 2019-10
0
10
20
30
%
-10
0
10
20
30
%
China – Total Social Financing GrowthYear-ended with contributions
Debt swap adjustment*
Upper bound estimate after including local government bond issuance
to pay off debt previously included in TSF
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
201420102006 20180
50
100
150
200
250
%
0
50
100
150
200
250
%
China – Non-financial Sector Debt*Per cent of nominal GDP
Total
Corporate
Household
Government**
Includes RBA estimates of shadow financing that is not included in
total social financing
Includes some borrowing by local government financing vehicles
Sources: BIS; CEIC Data; RBA