chesapeake bay: the science, the tmdl, the models · pollution diet by river pollution diet by...
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Chesapeake Bay:
the Science, the TMDL,
the Models
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Your Tour Guides for the Next 14 Hours:
James Davis-Martin
Chesapeake Bay Manager
Virginia Department of Environmental Quality
and
Rich Batiuk
Associate Director for Science
U.S. EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Office
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First, a Chesapeake Bay
TMDL Primer
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A. Cross Section of Chesapeake Bay or Tidal Tributary
B. Oblique View of the “Chesapeake Bay” and its Tidal Tributaries
Shallow-Water
Bay Grass Use Open-Water
Fish and Shellfish UseDeep-Water
Seasonal Fish and
Shellfish Use
Deep-Channel
Seasonal Refuge Use
Open-Water
Habitat
Migratory Fish
Spawning and
Nursery Use
Clean Water Act Requires Protection of Designated Uses
Shallow-Water
Bay Grass Use
Deep-Water
Seasonal Fish and
Shellfish Use Deep-Channel Seasonal Refuge Use
Source: U.S. EPA 20034
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Minimum Amount of Oxygen (mg/L) Needed to Survive by Species
Migratory Fish Spawning & Nursery Areas
Hard Clams: 5
Striped Bass: 5-6
Worms: 1
Shallow and Open Water Areas
Deep Water
Deep Channel
6
5
3
2
1
4
0
Crabs: 3
Spot: 2
White Perch: 5
American Shad: 5
Yellow Perch: 5
Alewife: 3.6
Bay Anchovy: 3
States Adopt Water Quality Standards
to Protect Designated Uses
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The Partners Established a Pollution Diet for Each Tidal Water Segment
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The Partners Uses a Suite of Models to Determine the Nutrient Loads Achieving the States’ Water Quality Standards
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The Partnership uses a
science-based approach to
allocating responsibility for
reducing nutrient and sediment
loads necessary to meet
states’ Chesapeake Bay water
quality standards
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Pollution Diet by River
Pollution Diet by State
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The Chesapeake Bay
Program Partnership Uses a
Suite of Models to Support
Collaborative Decision
Making…
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…But Most Partners Think in
Terms of the Chesapeake Bay
Watershed Model as THE
MODEL
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Phase 6
Average Load + Inputs * Sensitivity
Land Use Acres
BMPs
Land to Water
Stream Delivery
River Delivery
*
*
*
*
*
Phase 6 Model Structure
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Average Load + Inputs * Sensitivity
Land Use Acres
BMPs
Land to Water
Stream Delivery
River Delivery
*
*
*
*
*
Keep It Simple Include Everything
Models• CBP Phase 5.3.2
• USGS SPARROW
• USDA CEAP
• HSPF
• APLE
• RUSLE
• USGS-Modflow
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Let’s Briefly Explore How the
Partners Have Used Science,
Data, and Monitoring to
Confidently Simulate the
Watershed
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Rural SettingsUrban/Suburban Settings
Partnership’s Phase 6 Watershed Model is Built on High
Resolution & Local Land Cover and Land Use Data
30 Meter
1 meter resolution land cover data for entire Bay watershed and all of Virginia supplemented by local government’s submission of local land cover, land use, planning and zoning data
30 Meter1 Meter 1 Meter
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How the Partners Account for Estimated Reductions Based on Reported Practices
River
River
Land Use
Precipitation
•Atmospheric deposition•Biosolids•Fertilizer•Manure
Loads
•Management filter (Efficiency BMPs)•Sediment delivery factor
Loads
Edge-of-stream
•Management filter (Pound BMPs)•In-stream transport processing
In-Stream
River
To Bay
Applications
Applications
•Management filter (Application BMPs)
Hydrologysubmodel Sediment
submodel Phosphorussubmodel
Nitrogensubmodel
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Nutrient Spread Components: Easy Version
1) Define Crop Application Goal
2) Define Manure Available to Crops
3) Spread Manure to Crops
4) Define Inorganic Fertilizer Available to Crops
5) Spread Inorganic Fertilizer to Crops
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1.Define Crop Application Goal
Crop Application Goal/Yield
Unit
Yields/Acre Acres
Crop Application
Goal
2. Define Manure Available to Crops
Manure Generated
Direct Deposition on Pasture
Direct Deposition to Riparian Pasture
Areas
Deposited within Barnyard
Storage and Handling Loss
Stored Manure
ManureTransport
Feed Additive
BMPs
Volatilization
Available for
Application
Barnyard BMPs
Ammonia Reduction BMPs
Available for
Transport
Mineralization
3. Spread Manure to
Crops
4. Define Inorganic Fertilizer Available to Crops
5. Spread Fertilizer to
Crops
Actual Nutrient Spread: Based on literally thousands of decisions by Partnership agency, conservation district and scientific experts
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Phosphorus
Inputs
Soil storage
output
BMPs reported annually by states
Load
How Phosphorus is Modeled
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Inputs:• Fertilizer• Manure
Influenced by:• Fertilizer sales• Ag animal populations• % Nutrient
Management plans
• State P soil test data• USDA APLE model• Expert advice from
external reviewers
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Scientific Direction on Modeling Phosphorus
• Track drawdown and buildup of soil P reservoirs by segment as a source of P runoff
• Get better manure, fertilizer, application method, and soil P data
• Account for management (method, timing, tillage, etc)
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Early 1990’s, about 50% of P trapped
~10 ~5 ~5
Early 2000’s, about 40% of P trapped
~11 ~5 ~6
Early 2010’s, Approaching no net trapping
~8 ~0 ~8
Loads Into Reservoir SystemLong term improving trend
Loads Out of Reservoir System -ConowingoLong term degrading trend
Source: Data from USGS (2016), http://cbrim.er.usgs.gov/loads_query.htmlloads are approximate and in units of million lbs/year using estimates for 1992, 2002, and 2012
The Partnership’s Model Simulate the Loss of Trapping Capacity
Behind Conowingo Dam to Support Policy Decision Making
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The Partnership Depends on
Decades of Monitoring Data
at Hundreds of Stations
Across the Bay and
Watershed to Calibrate its
Models
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Phase 6 Watershed Model Calibrated Using A LOT of Monitoring Data from Hundreds of Stations
Monitoring-Based WRTDS Per Acre Load
Wat
ers
he
d M
od
el S
imu
late
d P
er
Acr
e L
oad
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Phase 6 Model Much Improved over Phase 5 Model
Perfect
No predictive power
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NSE of monthly nitrogen load
NSE of annual nitrogen load
= 0.716
= 0.737
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NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus load
= 0.574
= 0.547
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Partnership-Based Model Development, Review and Management Application
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Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’s Phase 6 Watershed Model = CAST
• All users access the same Phase 6 Ches. Bay Watershed Model
• Users can generate their own scenarios
• Users can query output of their own or official Partnership scenarios
• Anyone can get an account
• Training available
Cast.chesapeakebay.net 29
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Questions
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Rich Batiuk
Associate Director for Science
U.S. EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Office
410-267-5731 Work
443-223-7823 Mobile
www.chesapeakebay.net
James Davis-Martin
Chesapeake Bay Manager
Virginia Department of Environmental Quality
(804) 698-4298 Work
www.deq.virginia.gov
Contact us for More Information: