chautauqua county school board dinner
DESCRIPTION
Presentation given by Prof. John Sipple at the Chautauqua County School Board Association Dinner. May 8, 2014.TRANSCRIPT
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Educational Insolvency:What do we need to know?
John W. Sipple, PhDAssociate ProfessorCornell University
CaRDI, NYS Center for Rural Schools NYRuralSchools.org @jsipple
CCSB Dinner, Jamestown, NY
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Key Themes
1. Caught between constraints in state aid and property tax cap
2. Variation across state in need and impact of state aid and tax cap
3. Regional response and shared services
4. Programmatic vs. Financial insolvency
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A Preview•No flurry of tables and charts detailing
flaws in state aid. Others have & will do this.
•Problems are more political than technical.
•The imperative is not to find more money in the state, but to better allocate and use what we have (e.g., Formula, GEA, STAR, local decisions).
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“Educational Insolvency”
•A relative term…depending on what we are trying to accomplish.
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Forgive me... A bit of history about WHY we educate?•Jefferson's Plan – Public Schooling in VA 1817
(Identifier)
•Mann's Plan – Common schools in MA 1849 (Equalizer)
•Conant's Plan – Comprehensive High School 1959 (Stratifier)
•Clinton/Bush/Obama/Tisch/King Plan – Standards & Choice (??)
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Thomas Jefferson’s Plan•“Twenty of the best geniuses will be raked
from the rubbish annually.”
•“We hope to avail the state of those talents which nature has sown as liberally among the poor as the rich.”
School as sorter and identifier of select talent… but not just from wealthy communities/neighborhoods.
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Horace Mann’s plan•“The Common School...may become the most
effective and benignant of all the forces of civilization.”
•“The materials upon which it operates are so pliant and ductile... Inherent advantages of the Common School.”
School as societal change agent - Actively shaping all youth and community
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Conant’s High School Plan (1959)•School serves community– all kids go to same
Comprehensive High School
•Multiple paths to different outcomes
•“What will make the schools democratic is to provide opportunity for all to receive such education as will fit them equally well for their particular work life.” Boston Superintendent, 1908
School as Stratifier - all-things-to-all-people
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Clinton/Bush/Obama/King
•All children can and should achieve
•Market forces shape and motivate success
•Dramatic lack of trust in the educators and system
Schools caught between consumerism and Egalitarian ideals
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1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Number of NYS and U.S. School Districts
NYSUS
# o
f N
YS
Dis
tric
ts
Equilibrium
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The Big SqueezePopulation/Enrollment decline• Increased unit cost
Demographic change
• Poorer• Minority growth• ESL• Special Education
Revenue constraints
• Tax cap
• State aid cap & GEA
• Property wealth concentration
• Income concentration
• RTT Funding and now Fed sequester & cuts
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38%
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19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
2011
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Assessed Property Value/Pupil
NYC Big 4 Small CityHN Rural Ave Need Low Need
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19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
2011
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Assessed Property Value/Pupil
NYC Big 4 Small CityHN Rural Ave Need Low Need
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19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
2011
$0$200$400$600$800
$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$1,800$2,000
Unrestricted Fund Balance/Pupil for School Districts
Small City HN Rural Ave Need Low Need
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Need•Let’s watch together… http://pad.human.cornell.edu
•What causes this?
•What are the cost implications?
•What are the implications of insolvency?
•Causal Inference – schools impact poverty || poverty impacts schools
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Insolvency
•Financial Insolvency
•Fund Balance gone
•Obligations exceed revenues
•Educational Insolvency
•Quality of educational opportunity and outcomes legally/socially/technically unacceptable.
We thought this would happen
We fear this is happening
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Shared Services Study
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Fiscal Insolvency?
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Educational Insolvency?
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Result•Slow to restructure contracts
•Most scaled back or cut courses/programs
•Most cut staff
•Many shared services
•Fund balance squeezed but not exhausted
•Spike in merger discussions, but still few mergers (see NYASBO Study)
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In short…•If the aim was to squeeze the districts into
merger and Financial insolvency… it failed (thus far)
•Rather, school districts have gutted program & teachers resulting in what we might call educational insolvency.
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So how bad is it?
•I don’t know – across the state.
•You might know in your home district
•But we will…
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How can I measure Educational Insolvency?•New NYSED data system will allow us to peak inside any classroom.
•What course? Who is taking the course? Who is teaching the course? Performance in the course?
Chemistry CalculusRemedial
Eng.
A B C
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This becomes possible
School A School B
% Minority 18% 18%
% Poor 37% 37%
Physics Global Physics Global
N 21 27 6 11
% Minority 16% 18% 0% 12%
% Poor 31% 37% 2% 9%
%CCR 83% 81% 92% 85%
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Options to Avoid Insolvency•Merger
• “Fundamental financial reform.”
• I disagree. Indeed a good option in some places, but…
•High Tax, Low performance metric – Forced closure ?
•Regional High Schools – Enrich academic program for small schools
•Shared Services – much going on.
•Technology – Reduce isolation, enrich program, lower cost
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No guessing about impact
•Measurable
•Detailed Data – Access, Performance, Productivity
•We can assess Educational Insolvency based on our expectations of what our schools are for. Identifier? Stratifier? Equalizer?