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Coal Fuel Switching UsingElectricity Generation Data Electricity Generation Based on Fuel Type

Year Total (GWh)1970 2175

1980 7912 BAU NP Bau

1990 19469 Coal 15 15 15

1991 21442 Petroleum 5 5 5

1997 49080 Natural Gas 70 70 70

2000 52300 Hydro 10 10 10

2010 105762 Biomass 0 0 0

2020 195253 NP= New Policy

BAU=Business As Usual

USD/ton RM/ton kcal/kg kJ/kg 1USD

Coal 87.5 294.88 5500 23021.9 1kcal

(Source: Review on Electricity Tariff in Peninsular Malaysia under the Incentive-based Regulation

Coal (RM/t 294.88 *N/R 23021.9

Petrol(RM/ 1.002 0.85 45000.0

Natural Ga 0.6012 0.717 55000.0

Hydro - - -

Biomass (R 15 *N/R 6000.0

*N/R= Not Required

(Source: Energy, Economy and Environmental Analysis of Industrial Boilers Using Fuel Switching)

CO2 SO2 Nox CO

Biofuel Bur 1.55 0.00027 0.0011 0.078

(Source: ANDREAE AND MERLET: EMISSIONs FROM BIOMASS BURNING)

CO2 SO2 Nox CO

Coal 1.1800 0.0139 0.0052 0.0002

Petroleum 0.8500 0.0164 0.0025 0.0002

Gas 0.5300 0.0005 0.0009 0.0005

Hydro 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Others 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Biofuel Bur 0.9300 0.0002 0.0007 0.0468

FuelsYear 40

2010Ye

2

94.31

54.88

0.01

Energy

Content

(kJ/kg)

Fuel TypeEnergy Content

Average Electricity Price for

each fuel type (RM/kWh)

0.046

Market price

Fuel Type Unit Fuel

Price

Density

(kg/m3)

0.24

Fuels Emission factor( kg/ kWh)

Emission Factor (kg/kg)Fuels


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Analysis

Electricity Generation Data New Policy: Electricity Generation Percenta

Year Year Gap 1 Total (GWh) Year Year Gap 2 Coal

1970 0 2175 2015 0 15%

1980 10 7912 2020 5 11%

1990 20 19469 2030 15 8%

1991 21 21442

1997 27 49080

2000 30 52300

2010 40 105762

2020 50 195253

Predicted Annual Electricity Generation, Percentage of Electrictity Generation based on Fuel Types a

Business As Usual

Coal Petroluem Gas

2015 45 149,476.90 0 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

2016 46 157,298.30 1 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

2017 47 165,320.90 2 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

2018 48 173,544.70 3 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

2019 49 181,969.70 4 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

2020 50 190,595.90 5 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

2021 51 199,423.30 6 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

2022 52 208,451.90 7 0.1500 0.0500 0.70002023 53 217,681.70 8 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

2024 54 227,112.70 9 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

2025 55 236,744.90 10 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

2026 56 246,578.30 11 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

2027 57 256,612.90 12 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

2028 58 266,848.70 13 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

2029 59 277,285.70 14 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

2030 60 287,923.90 15 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000

Year Year Gap 1 Total (GWh) Year Gap 2 Fuel Type Percenta

y = 100.65x2- 1333.2x + 5755.9

R = 0.9941

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

TotalElectrictiyGeneration

Year Increment

Electricity Generation Data

Electricity Generation Data Poly. (Electricity Generation Data)

y

y = -0.001x2+ 0.

R = 1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0 5

FuelP

ercentagefotElectricityGeneration

NCoal

Biomass

Poly. (Gas)


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2015 45 149,476.90 0 22421.5 1.034 7473.8

2016 46 157,298.30 1 23594.7 1.088 7864.9

2017 47 165,320.90 2 24798.1 1.143 8266.0

2018 48 173,544.70 3 26031.7 1.200 8677.2

2019 49 181,969.70 4 27295.5 1.259 9098.5

2020 50 190,595.90 5 28589.4 1.318 9529.8

2021 51 199,423.30 6 29913.5 1.379 9971.2

2022 52 208,451.90 7 31267.8 1.442 10422.6

2023 53 217,681.70 8 32652.3 1.506 10884.1

2024 54 227,112.70 9 34066.9 1.571 11355.6

2025 55 236,744.90 10 35511.7 1.637 11837.2

2026 56 246,578.30 11 36986.7 1.705 12328.9

2027 57 256,612.90 12 38491.9 1.775 12830.6

2028 58 266,848.70 13 40027.3 1.846 13342.4

2029 59 277,285.70 14 41592.9 1.918 13864.3

2030 60 287,923.90 15 43188.6 1.991 14396.2

Coal (GWh) Costs (billion)Petroluem

(GWh)

Electricity Gene

Year Total (GWh)Year Gap 1 Year Gap 2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Predicted Fuel Type Percentage for

Electricity Generation

Biomass

Hydro

Gas

Petroluem

Coal

0.00

10,000,000.00

20,000,000.00

30,000,000.00

40,000,000.00

50,000,000.00

60,000,000.00

10,000.00

12,000.00

14,000.00

illion)

Total Costs Required for Electricity

Generation

1.50

2.00

2.50

Mb

illion)


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0.00

2,000.00

4,000.00

6,000.00

, .

2015 2020 2025 2030

Costs(RM

Year

BAU

NP

0.00

0.50

1.00

Cost(

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

Cost

(RMb

illion)

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

Cost(RMbillion)

year

Biomass Cost Required to Generate

Electricity in NP

NP


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iomass and Hydropower

NP BAU NP

10 15 8

2 5 1

50 70 40

30 10 30

8 0 21

3.37 RM

4.1858 kJ

echanism)

1m3 1000 L

ar 50 Year 60020 2030


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e based on Fuel Type

Petroluem Gas Hydro Biomass

5% 70% 10% 0%

3% 55% 25% 6%

1% 40% 40% 11%

nd Emission Reduction

Hydro Biomass CO2 (ton) SO2(ton) Nox(ton) CO(ton)

0.1000 0.0000 88,266,109.45 486,547.31 229,447.04 58,295.99 2015

0.1000 0.0000 92,884,646.15 512,005.97 241,452.89 61,346.34 2016

0.1000 0.0000 97,621,991.45 538,119.53 253,767.58 64,475.15 2017

0.1000 0.0000 102,478,145.35 564,888.00 266,391.11 67,682.43 2018

0.1000 0.0000 107,453,107.85 592,311.37 279,323.49 70,968.18 2019

0.1000 0.0000 112,546,878.95 620,389.65 292,564.71 74,332.40 2020

0.1000 0.0000 117,759,458.65 649,122.84 306,114.77 77,775.09 2021

0.1000 0.0000 123,090,846.95 678,510.93 319,973.67 81,296.24 20220.1000 0.0000 128,541,043.85 708,553.93 334,141.41 84,895.86 2023

0.1000 0.0000 134,110,049.35 739,251.84 348,617.99 88,573.95 2024

0.1000 0.0000 139,797,863.45 770,604.65 363,403.42 92,330.51 2025

0.1000 0.0000 145,604,486.15 802,612.37 378,497.69 96,165.54 2026

0.1000 0.0000 151,529,917.45 835,274.99 393,900.80 100,079.03 2027

0.1000 0.0000 157,574,157.35 868,592.52 409,612.75 104,070.99 2028

0.1000 0.0000 163,737,205.85 902,564.95 425,633.55 108,141.42 2029

0.1000 0.0000 170,019,062.95 937,192.29 441,963.19 112,290.32 2030

Emission Production ge

Business As Usual

Year

= 0.0003x2- 0.0097x + 0.15

R = 1

y = 0.0001x2- 0.0047x + 0.05

R = 1

y = 0.001x2- 0.035x + 0.7

R = 1

.035x + 0.1

y = -0.0005x2+ 0.0143x - 6E-17

R = 1

10 15

P Year IncrementPetroluem Gas Hydro

Poly. (Coal) Poly. (Petroluem) Log. (Gas)

Poly. (Hydro) Poly. (Biomass)


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704.83 104633.8 5,742.64 14947.7 3.59 6,452.09 22421.5

741.71 110108.8 6,043.13 15729.8 3.78 6,789.70 22116.1

779.54 115724.6 6,351.34 16532.1 3.97 7,135.99 21789.3

818.31 121481.3 6,667.29 17354.5 4.17 7,490.96 21450.1

858.04 127378.8 6,990.96 18197.0 4.37 7,854.63 21108.5

898.72 133417.1 7,322.36 19059.6 4.57 8,226.97 20775.0

940.34 139596.3 7,661.50 19942.3 4.79 8,608.00 20460.8

982.91 145916.3 8,008.36 20845.2 5.00 8,997.72 20178.1

1,026.43 152377.2 8,362.95 21768.2 5.22 9,396.11 19939.6

1,070.90 158978.9 8,725.27 22711.3 5.45 9,803.20 19758.8

1,116.32 165721.4 9,095.33 23674.5 5.68 10,218.97 19649.8

1,162.69 172604.8 9,473.11 24657.8 5.92 10,643.42 19627.6

1,210.01 179629.0 9,858.62 25661.3 6.16 11,076.56 19707.9

1,258.27 186794.1 10,251.86 26684.9 6.40 11,518.38 19906.9

1,307.48 194100.0 10,652.83 27728.6 6.65 11,968.89 20241.9

1,357.65 201546.7 11,061.53 28792.4 6.91 12,428.08 20730.5

Costs (billion)Hydro

(GWh)Costs (billion)Costs (billion)Gas (GWh)

Sum of All Costs

(billion)

ration for each fuel for BAU & Costs required

Coal (GWh)

BAU

CO2 (ton) Emission Reduction

CO2 (ton)

0.00

100,000.00

200,000.00

300,000.00

400,000.00

500,000.00

600,000.00

700,000.00

Coal Cost Required to Generate

Electricity

800.00

1,000.00

1,200.00

1,400.00

1,600.00

billion)

Petroluem


8/18

year

BAU

NP

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

2015

2016

2017

Cost(R

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

year

Natural Gas Cost Required to Generate

Electricity

BAU

NP

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

2015

2016

2017

Cost(RMb

illion)

Cost Re


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10/18

Coal Petroluem Gas Hydro Biomass CO2 (ton)

45 ######## 0 0.1500 0.0500 0.7000 0.1000 0.0000 #######

46 ######## 1 0.1406 0.0454 0.6660 0.1340 0.0138 #######

47 ######## 2 0.1318 0.0410 0.6340 0.1660 0.0266 #######

48 ######## 3 0.1236 0.0368 0.6040 0.1960 0.0384 #######

49 ######## 4 0.1160 0.0328 0.5760 0.2240 0.0492 #######

50 ######## 5 0.1090 0.0290 0.5500 0.2500 0.0590 #######

51 ######## 6 0.1026 0.0254 0.5260 0.2740 0.0678 #######

52 ######## 7 0.0968 0.0220 0.5040 0.2960 0.0756 #######53 ######## 8 0.0916 0.0188 0.4840 0.3160 0.0824 #######

54 ######## 9 0.0870 0.0158 0.4660 0.3340 0.0882 #######

55 ######## 10 0.0830 0.0130 0.4500 0.3500 0.0930 #######

56 ######## 11 0.0796 0.0104 0.4360 0.3640 0.0968 #######

57 ######## 12 0.0768 0.0080 0.4240 0.3760 0.0996 #######

58 ######## 13 0.0746 0.0058 0.4140 0.3860 0.1014 #######

59 ######## 14 0.0730 0.0038 0.4060 0.3940 0.1022 #######

60 ######## 15 0.0720 0.0020 0.4000 0.4000 0.1020 #######

ear Gap 1 otal (GWh

New Policy

Fuel Type PercentageYear Gap 2


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1.03 7473.8 704.83 104633.8 5,742.64 14947.7 3.59 0.0 0.00

1.02 7141.3 673.47 104760.7 5,749.60 21078.0 5.06 2170.7 0.02

1.00 6778.2 639.22 104813.5 5,752.50 27443.3 6.59 4397.5 0.04

0.99 6386.4 602.28 104821.0 5,752.91 34014.8 8.16 6664.1 0.06

0.97 5968.6 562.87 104814.5 5,752.56 40761.2 9.78 8952.9 0.08

0.96 5527.3 521.26 104827.7 5,753.28 47649.0 11.44 11245.2 0.10

0.94 5065.4 477.69 104896.7 5,757.07 54642.0 13.11 13520.9 0.12

0.93 4585.9 432.48 105059.8 5,766.02 61701.8 14.81 15759.0 0.14

0.92 4092.4 385.94 105357.9 5,782.38 68787.4 16.51 17937.0 0.16

0.91 3588.4 338.41 105834.5 5,808.54 75855.6 18.21 20031.3 0.18

0.91 3077.7 290.24 106535.2 5,847.00 82860.7 19.89 22017.3 0.20

0.91 2564.4 241.84 107508.1 5,900.39 89754.5 21.54 23868.8 0.21

0.91 2052.9 193.60 108803.9 5,971.51 96486.5 23.16 25558.6 0.23

0.92 1547.7 145.96 110475.4 6,063.24 103003.6 24.72 27058.5 0.24

0.93 1053.7 99.37 112578.0 6,178.64 109250.6 26.22 28338.6 0.26

0.96 575.8 54.31 115169.6 6,320.88 115169.6 27.64 29368.2 0.26

Electricity Generation for each fuel for NP & Costs required

Petroluem

(GWh)

Costs

(billion)Gas (GWh)

Costs

(billion)

Hydro

(GWh)

Costs

(billion)

Cost

(billion)

Biomass

(GWh)

Costs

(billion)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

SO2 & NOx Emission Reduction

SO2(ton)

Nox(ton)

-1,400,000.00

-1,200,000.00

-1,000,000.00

-800,000.00

-600,000.00

-400,000.00

-200,000.00

0.00

200,000.00

20152017201

CO(ton) E

Cost Required to Generate

Electricity


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2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

year

BAU

NP

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

year

quired for Hydropower to

enerate Electricity

BAU

NP


13/18


14/18

SO2(ton) Nox(ton) CO(ton) CO2 (ton) SO2(ton)

486,547.31 229,447.04 58,295.99 0.00 0.00

477,264.37 228,574.56 159,821.36 3,175,538.08 34,741.59

467,152.09 227,484.20 263,924.90 6,508,353.19 70,967.43

456,384.52 226,243.98 369,858.46 9,985,762.04 108,503.48

445,150.73 224,927.65 476,818.84 13,593,864.47 147,160.64

433,654.85 223,614.73 583,947.72 17,317,543.47 186,734.81

422,116.03 222,390.48 690,331.67 21,140,465.19 227,006.81

410,768.48 221,345.90 795,002.19 25,045,078.88 267,742.46399,861.43 220,577.74 896,935.68 29,012,616.98 308,692.50

389,659.17 220,188.49 995,053.41 33,023,095.03 349,592.67

380,441.00 220,286.39 1,088,221.61 37,055,311.75 390,163.64

372,501.30 220,985.45 1,175,251.36 41,086,848.97 430,111.07

366,149.45 222,405.37 1,254,898.67 45,094,071.69 469,125.54

361,709.89 224,671.66 1,325,864.45 49,052,128.03 506,882.63

359,522.09 227,915.54 1,386,794.52 52,934,949.27 543,042.86

359,940.58 232,273.97 1,436,279.58 56,715,249.82 577,251.72

Emission REmission Production


15/18

6,452.09 -

6,429.17 360.53

6,399.35 736.64

6,364.41 1,126.56

6,326.27 1,528.35

6,287.03 1,939.94

6,248.94 2,359.06

6,214.38 2,783.34

6,185.91 3,210.20

6,166.24 3,636.96

6,158.23 4,060.74

6,164.89 4,478.53

6,189.40 4,887.16

6,235.09 5,283.30

6,305.42 5,663.47

6,404.04 6,024.04

NP

Sum of All Costs

(billion)

Bill Savings

(billion)

920212023202520272029

ission Reduction

CO(ton)


16/18


17/18


18/18

Nox(ton) CO(ton)

0.00 0.00

12,878.33 -98,475.03

26,283.38 -199,449.75

40,147.14 -302,176.03

54,395.84 -405,850.66

68,949.97 -509,615.32

83,724.28 -612,556.59

98,627.77 -713,705.95113,563.67 -812,039.81

128,429.51 -906,479.46

143,117.03 -995,891.10

157,512.25 -1,079,085.82

171,495.43 -1,154,819.64

184,941.09 -1,221,793.46

197,718.01 -1,278,653.09

209,689.22 -1,323,989.26

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