chart discussion: fri 11-dec-2015 · msl analyses : sat-03-dec to thu-10-dec chart discussion:...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
Chart Discussion: Fri 11-Dec-2015
2
Leading to Christmas Day- Multi-Model
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
3
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
4
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
5
Christmas Day-15 Forecast Chart … ECMWF
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
6
Christmas Day-15 Forecast Chart … GFS
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
7
Seasonal Outlook
Part One
Chart Discussion: Fri 11-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
8
Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesThe 2015 El Niño event is near its peak. Some El Niño indicators are now
showing signs of easing. The El Niño is likely to persist well into 2016.
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
9
Verification (1989 to 2015) of the accuracy of the BoM’s
Seasonal Climate Outlooks [Rainfall]
QLD
NSW
VIC
NT
SA
WA
TAS
ALL STATES
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
10
Seasonal Outlook Dec ‘15 - Feb ‘16
The summer outlook indicates below-average rainfall is likely
across the northwest and Cape York Peninsula, and wetter across
parts of the east. The daytime temperature outlook is patchy, with
warmer days likely in parts of the west and north, while parts of the
southeast are likely to be cooler. Overnight temperatures are likely
to be warmer across most of the country except the southeast.
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
Seasonal Outlook for Melbourne
… next 30 Days (statistically-based)
11
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
Seasonal Outlook for Victorian Districts
… next three months (statistically-based)
12
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
13
Last Week
Part Two
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
14
MSL Analyses : Sat-03-Dec to Thu-10-Dec
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
15
Southern Hemisphere: Thu-10-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
16
MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Thu-10-Dec-2015
http://www.bom.gov.au
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
17
ECMWFUS GFS
ACCESS
Verifying Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Thu 10-Dec-2015
OBSERVED
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
18
MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Fri-11-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
19
Next Week
Part Three
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
20
Verifying Melbourne Forecasts[Updated to 31-Aug-2015]
Max Temp
Based upon: QJRMS Stern & Davidson (2015)
Rainfall Amount
Peaks in skill coincide with
successful prediction of a group
of extreme events (2010/11: Rain;
2013/14: Max Temp)
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
21
Jet Streams: Fri 11-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-Dedember-2015 (Harvey Stern)
22
MSL Pressure: Fri 11-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
23
Jet Streams: Sat 12-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
24
MSL Pressure: Sat 12-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
25
Jet Streams: Sun 13-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
26
MSL Pressure: Sun 13-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
27
Jet Streams: Mon 14-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
28
MSL Pressure: Mon 14-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
29
Jet Streams: Tue 15-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
30
MSL Pressure: Tue 15-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
31
Jet Streams: Wed 16-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
32
MSL Pressure: Wed 16-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
33
MSL Pressure: Thu 17-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
34
ECMWFUS GFS
ACCESS
Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Thu 17-Dec-2015
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
35
Day 8-10 ACCESS Model: Fri-Sun 18-20 Dec ‘15
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)
36
Chart Discussion: Fri 11-Dec-2015
Thank You
http://www.weather-climate.com/ChartDiscussion11Dec2015.pdf
Chart Discussion: Fri-11-December-2015 (Harvey Stern)