Should public policy supportdisruptive consumer innovations

for climate change?

Charlie WilsonAPPAM International Conference

Barcelona, July 2019

Starting Grant #678799

silci.org

Limiting warming to 1.5°C requires 45% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 (IPCC 2018)

Source: Global Carbon Project (2018) Global Carbon Budget 2018

very rapid emission reductions needed tomeet public policy goals

typically framed as asupply-side problem

consumption practice potentially disruptive consumer innovations

driving (ICE) cars with low

occupancycar-share

e-bikes‘taxi-bus’ ride-share car-share MaaS

driving (ICE) cars with low

occupancy

consumption practice potentially disruptive consumer innovations

consumption practice incumbent firms, service providers

markets, regulations

infrastructures, norms

driving (ICE) cars with low

occupancyautomakers,

garages, dealersrevenue-raising

taxationparking,

transit usage, ownership

e-bikes‘taxi-bus’ ride-share car-share MaaS

driving (ICE) cars with low

occupancy

consumption practice potentially disruptive consumer innovations

e-bikes‘taxi-bus’ ride-share car-share MaaS

diet gamification

online food hubs

P2P food sharing

11th hour apps

recipe boxes

driving (ICE) cars with low

occupancy

doing big (meaty)

supermarketfood shops

consumption practice potentially disruptive consumer innovations

e-bikes‘taxi-bus’ ride-share car-share MaaS

diet gamification

online food hubs

P2P food sharing

11th hour apps

recipe boxes

driving (ICE) cars with low

occupancy

manually controlling

deviceswhenever

needed

doing big (meaty)

supermarketfood shops

consumption practice potentially disruptive consumer innovations

P2Pgoods

internet of things

smart appliances

smart homes

heat pumps

e-bikes‘taxi-bus’ ride-share car-share MaaS

P2Pgoods

internet of things

smart appliances

smart homes

heat pumps

PV + storage

P2P electricity

vehicle-to-grid

time-of-use pricing

demand response

diet gamification

online food hubs

P2P food sharing

11th hour apps

recipe boxes

driving (ICE) cars with low

occupancy

manually controlling

deviceswhenever

needed

usinggrid-supplied

energy whenever

needed

doing big (meaty)

supermarketfood shops

consumption practice potentially disruptive consumer innovations

Should public policy support disruptive consumer innovations for climate change?

yes: CO2 emission reduction is a public good(cf. grants for energy efficiency, carbon pricing …)

Should public policy support disruptive consumer innovations for climate change?

yes: CO2 emission reduction is a public good(cf. grants for energy efficiency, carbon pricing …)

yes: disrupting consumption practices may help other policy objectives (e.g., healthy eating)

yes: overlap with strategic research & innovation objectives (e.g., industrial strategy)

Should public policy support disruptive consumer innovations for climate change?

yes: CO2 emission reduction is a public good(cf. grants for energy efficiency, carbon pricing …)

yes: disrupting consumption practices may help other policy objectives (e.g., healthy eating)

yes: overlap with strategic research & innovation objectives (e.g., industrial strategy)

but .. rapid, disruptive change has negative impacts

De-risking disruption (1): trial innovations in market niches to enable policy learning

(area-based) demonstration programmes for testing -

new business modelsnew infrastructures

new policy instruments

new user roles

De-risking disruption (1): trial innovations in market niches to enable policy learning

(area-based) demonstration programmes for testing -

new business modelsnew infrastructures

new policy instruments

new user roles

new regulatory frameworks

De-risking disruption (2): engage constructively with ‘losers’ to reduce transitional inequities

political economics is arguably the principal brake on CO2 emission reductions

De-risking disruption (2): engage constructively with ‘losers’ to reduce transitional inequities

political economics is arguably the principal brake on CO2 emission reductions

retraining, community investment, industrial policy, compensationcf. swords into ploughshares

De-risking disruption (3): support diversity to avoid premature lock-in to new incumbency

scale economies & network effects in digital platforms can lead to rapid market dominance … Uberisation

De-risking disruption (3): support diversity to avoid premature lock-in to new incumbency

scale economies & network effects in digital platforms can lead to rapid market dominance … Uberisation

public policy should play an influential role in the ‘selection environment’ for early-stage innovationse.g., market access in exchange for

robust evidence of CO2 reductions

e-bikes‘taxi-bus’ ride-share car-share MaaS

Should public policy support disruptive consumer innovations for climate change?

yes: CO2 emission reduction is a public good

but .. rapid, disruptive change has negative impacts which can be mitigated:

- trials for policy learning- engagement with ‘losers’- support for diversity

but .. urgency sets up tensionswith continuity & (near-term) equity

Should public policy supportdisruptive consumer innovations

for climate change?

Charlie WilsonAPPAM International Conference

Barcelona, July 2019

Starting Grant #678799

silci.org

automakers, garages, dealers

revenue-raising taxation

parking,transit usage,

ownership

renovation SMEs, non-ICT manufacturers

data & privacy

wireless & 4G networks,

boundaries of home

centralised utilities

grid access

transmission networks,

passiveconsumption

large retailers & suppliers

urban form, high streets,

land use

competition, health &

safety compliance

consumption practice incumbent firms, service providers

markets, regulations

infrastructure, norms

driving (ICE) cars with low

occupancy

manually controlling

deviceswhenever

needed

using grid-supplied energy

whenever needed

doing big (meaty)

supermarketfood shops