Development of Avalanche Education and HazardForecasting in Hokkaido, Japan

Charles W. ZiskinInstitute of Low Temperature Science

Hokkaido UniversitySapporo 060 JAPAN

Avalanche fatalities in Hokkaido have been recorded for morethan fifty years and Japan devotes considerable public funds tothe academic study of avalanches yet operational forecasting isnot conducted. While avalanche defenses protect highways andrailroads throughout Hokkaido, hazard evaluation is not practicedat Hokkaido ski resorts and in-bounds avalanche terrain isneither controlled nor closed during periods of extreme hazard.Out of bounds avalanche paths are permanently closed, but thepolicy is not always effective in deterring many individuals ~rom

skiing in these paths.

On 15 January, 1990 two skiers were killed and severalothers caught in two avalanches on prominent avalanche pathsbetween the Niseko Hirafu and Niseko Higashi-yama ski areas inwestern Hokkaido. These accidents occured near the end of one ofthe most intense storm cycles of the season in Hokkaido. Twoperiods of very heavy snowfall accompanied by extremely highwinds were punctuated by a day of warm sunny weather, followed bya cold, clear night. It is believed that a weak depth hoar layerformed near the snow surface during the night of 12 January thatformed the sliding layer for both avalanches on 15 January(Akitaya and Fukuzawa, 1990). One of the victims was a thirteen­year old boy who was taken across a clearly flagged rope line byan uncle who had been involved in another fatal accident twoyears earlier outside Niseko Moiwa Ski area. The fact thatavalanche fatalities at Japanese ski areas are not higher isprobably due to the limited number of ski areas with largenumbers of out of bounds skiers. with greater public awarenessand more consistent enforcement of ski area boundaries thesefatalities could be greatly reduced.

The mountaineering and backcountry skiing communities havelittle avalanche training beyond a cursory discussion in informalmeteorology lectures given by local mountaineering clubs. Theuse of avalanche transceivers is unknown. Case studies ofavalanche accidents (Naruse, 1989) and discussions with ski­mountaineers suggest that the general level of avalancheawareness is comparable to that of ski area patrons; surprisinglylow for such a group.

With support from the Japanese Ministry of Education and theInstitute of Low Temperature Science at Hokkaido University aproject has been initiated to develop guidelines for theformation of an avalanche hazard warning system for Hokkaido.This project consists of two components: preliminary compilation

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and analysis of requisite data sets and subsequent examination ofthe problems associated with the implementation of avalancheeducation and forecast systems where historical precedents areabsent.

The first component, compilation of data sets, includes adetailed climatology of the winter climate of Hokkaido as itrelates to patterns of avalanche activity. The island ofHokkaido is similar in size, latitude and climate to the state ofMaine. Hokkaido's winter climate differs however, in the amountof snowfall, which can be prodigious. The western side ofHokkaido, facing the Japan Sea, receives the greatest amount ofsnowfall, with maximum snow depths often exceeding five meters inseveral mountain ranges. Near the Japan sea temperatures aremoderately cold and precipitation is frequent. Theclimatological pattern, termed "winter monsoon" (Kume, 1960) is adominant feature of the general circulation in winter,characterized by a strong Siberian high, coupled with a trough orclosed low in the Pacific ocean, east of the Japanesearchipelago. In eastern regions of Hokkaido snowfall is muchlighter due to the shadowing effect of high mountain ranges(Yamada, 1982) and temperatures can be extremely cold (-40°C).

Vastly differing snow conditions can be found on oppositesides of a mountain range, leading to spatial variation inpatterns of avalanche activity. The purpose of the datagathering component of this project is to create a climatology ofavalanche activity to be used as an information base in thefuture establishment of an avalanche forecast and informationcenter in Hokkaido. Data for this information base are beingcompiled from several sources. Large-scale climate data arearchived on CD-ROM by the department of Atmospheric Sciences atth~ University of Washington. This CD-ROM includes the NationalMeteorological Center's (NMC) northern hemisphere grid point dataset covering the years 1946 through 1988 at twice-dailyintervals. Station data from airfields are also archived on CD­ROM by Weatherdisc Associates of Seattle, WA. Detailedmeteorolgical data from automated weather stations in Japan areprovided by the Automated Meteorological Data System (AMEDAS). ofthe Japanese Meteorology Service (Tsuboki et al., 1990). Naruse(1989) has compiled a historical record of avalanche accidents inHokkaido from 1933 to 1989. The record includes informationabout weather conditions, general circumstances and type and sizeof avalanches encountered by mountaineers and skiers. This dataset will be supplemented by Nakamura et aI's (1987) historicalavalanche data compiled from newspaper reports.

Problems in encouraging development of an avalanche forecastsystem often seem daunting. Beyond the obvious problem of thelanguage barrier, the general knowlege base, outside of academia,is presently inadequate to build a network of observers. Atpresent, ski patrols at Japanese ski resorts are not involved inavalanche hazard evaluation or mitigation. Public awarenessabout avalanches remains almost nil. Hence, any attempt to

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create an avalanche information center must begin where theknowledge and experience exist. If the gap between thescientific community and the public at large is to be narrowedand if individuals outside the academy are to become an importantpart of the avalanche information process, the scientistsinvolved in avalanche studies must reach out to educate thepublic.

At the institute of Low Temperature Science at HokkaidoUniversity, members of the Snow Damage Section have initiatedseveral projects aimed at increasing the public avalancheknowledge base. The video-cassette "Avalanche Awareness: AQuestion of Balance" has been translated into Japanese for use inintroductory avalanche classes and it is hoped that a marketingagreement can be made to allow for its distribution in mountainshops and to Japan's abundant skiing and mountaineering clubs. Aseries of seminars for ski industry executives has been initiatedand management is being encouraged to take a more active role inproviding the opportunity for ski patrols to be trained in snowscience and rescue procedures. A series of two-day avalancheseminars for backcountry skiers and winter mountaineers is beingplanned for the 1990-1991 season. An English language section isincluded in the plan to provide basic avalanche education alsofor Sapporo's large foreign community, which includes manymountain skiers.

The apparent inconsistency between academic achievements andthe lack of public awareness seems most likely due to acombination of cultural and structural aspects of Japanese life.The Japanese legal system is not open to the kind of liabilitysuits that have fueled an explosion in insurance costs for manyindustries, particularly in the United States. A typical lawsuitmay take up to ten years to reach the docket. As a result, skiresort operators have not been compelled by insurance carriers toestablish rigorous and detailed plans for dealing withavalanches.

In the aftermath of the avalanche deaths of 15 January, 1990a ~eminar for management representatives of several ski areasfrom the Niseko region of Hokkaido was held at the Institute ofLow Temperature Science. Seminar topics included a review ofgeneral avalanche mechanics, description of meteorologicalconditions for the week ending in 15 January, results of snow pitstudies at the Niseko avalanche sites on 16 January and alengthly appeal to adopt some more formalised strategies fordealing with avalanches. Discussion followed, concentratingmainly upon avalanche control methods, the activities of aprofessional ski patrol, and rescue procedures. Finally, thetranslated video-cassette, "Avalanche Awareness: A Question ofBalance" was shown.

It is hoped that the activities initiated by the Snow DamageSection at the Institute of Low Temperature Science, anddescribed in this paper; will begin to stimulate interest and

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narrow the gap between the academic community and the skiingpublic. The process is likely to take several years because thepublic knowledge base is not yet broad enough to enable the rapidgrowth of an avalanche community such as exists in North Americaand Europe. As the public gains access to avalanche educationand professional ski patrols become involved in hazardevaluation, avalanche control, and search and rescue theopportunity will exist to develop an avalanche forecast centerthat is suited to the particular needs of Hokkaido skiers.

References:

Akitaya, E. and T. Fukuzawa (1990) Snow pit analysis of Nisekoavalanches of 15 January, 1990. Institute of LowTemperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo. (inJapanese) .

Kume, T. (1 960 )Seppyo, 22,

"Mountaineers' accidents by avalanche."1, pp. 2 - 7 (in Japanese) .

Nakamura, T., H. Nakamura, O. Abe, M. Higashiura, N. Numano, H.Yuuki, S. Kutsuzawa, Y. Yamada and T Ikarashi (1987)"Prefectural distribution of disastrous snow avalanches andprediction of them in the northern parts of Japan." (posterpaper)' Avalanche Formation, Movement and Effects. B. Salmand H. Gubler, eds., proceedings of the Davos Symposium,lARS Publication No. 162, pp. 311-316.

Naruse, R. (1989) "Study on prediction of danger and evacuationfrom avalanches in mountain regions in Hokkaido." Instituteof Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo (inJapanese) .

Tsuboki, K., Y, Fujiyoshi and G. Wakahama (1989) "Structure of aland breeze and snowfall enhancement at the leading edge."J. Met. Soc. Japan, 67, 5, pp. 757-770.

Yamada, T. (1982)distributionInstitute ofSapporo.

"Studies on accumulation-ablation processes andof snow in mountain regions, Hokkaido."Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University,

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