Linkage Institutions: III

Chapter 9: Nominations, Elections and Campaigns

The evolution of campaigns

Election campaign: an organized effort to persuade voters to choose one candidate over another for the same office

- Political parties USED to conduct all phases of an election campaign (as recently as 1950s)

- Now they are CANDIDATE CENTERED

The evolution of campaigns

Modern Campaigns- In nomination stage candidates rely little on

parties- Use public opinion polls and consultants to

determine positions - Strategies/tactics determined by campaign

consultants- Almost exclusive use of media and media

consultants to create sound bites

The evolution of campaigns

Modern Campaigns- Parties have more control on delegate

selection- Campaigns are two stages

1. Nominating candidate2. Getting candidate elected

- Parties basically provide funds and services for candidates

Nomination Process

Interesting facts:No mention in Constitution!!It involves an election by party voters

1. In most countries, local party leaders choose candidates with approval of national leaders2. US, each state is entitled to make its own laws governing the nomination process! So we have a lot of ways to nominate a person:)

History of Nomination Process

1800-1824: Caucus of congressional members for POTUS Caucus: local meeting selects delegates for county level, county level to state level, state leads to national level

1832: Nomination conventions (national) for POTUS candidates--> delegates selected by state legislatures

History of Nomination Process

Progressive Era leads to states creating primaries for POTUS as well.

1910: Oregon1912= 1st election where primary POTUS used1913: 17th amendment--> direct election of

senators rather than a caucus selection by state legislatures! Gets rid of political bosses determining candidates and encourages more popular support

History of Nomination Process

In summary: before 1968

-Party dominated

-few primaries

-short campaigns

-easy money

-limited media coverage

-late decisions

- open conventions

History of Nomination process

So what happened to change the process!!! 1968 Democratic Convention

1. LBJ decides to not run due to Vietnam/Civil Rights protests

2. Demonstrators protest outside of Chicago national convention and Chicago police intervene

1. Protests due to strong support of McCarthy(anti-war) for POTUS nominee, but Dems nominate LBJ VPOTUS Humphrey= vietnam!

3. Media (including a roughed up Dan Rather) catch all of this on film

History of Nomination Process

So…McGovern-Fraser commission (led by D Senator McGovern) sets new rules for 1972 recommending that ALL states adopt a new rules to assure wider participation in primaries to help national convention select party delegate for POTUS election (so no more riots)

So… states adopt the policy for POTUS Republicans follow suit soon after…

History of Nomination Process

In summary: since 1972- Candidate dominated- Many primaries- Long campaigns- Difficult fundraising- Media focused- “front loaded”:states moving primaries/caucuses

earlier in calendar to gain media/candidate attention (IOWA/NH!!)

- Closed conventions

History of nomination process

Alternative methods

1. Submission of a certain number of registered voters’ signatures

2. Self nomination

Used by 3rd parties, independents and R/D that do not win party nomination

Nomination of POTUS

Option 1: Presidential Primary (special primary used to select delegates to attend party;s national nominating convention, which in turn nominates the POTUS candidate- Democratic primaries are usually proportional- Republican are usually winner take all

Nomination of POTUS

Option 2: Caucus/Convention: method to select delegates to attend a party’s national convention. Local-county-state-national

Nomination of POTUS

Primaries seem to be the most “open” method for choosing delegates.-POTUS primaries generate 80% of delegates-Nearly all delegates selected in primaries are publicly committed to specific candidates-Can easily tell before the conventions who will be the nominee- Front loading!

FRONTLOADING!

In 2008, more than 1/2 of the delegates to both conventions were chosen by February 5th !!!! (= dropout of race)

IOWA: holds 1st caucus at the end of January (just moved to January 3!!!)--> forces out unpopular nominees

NEW HAMPSHIRE: holds 1st primary in February( just moved to January 10!!-->tests the appeal of the front runners with ordinary voter

FRONTLOADING!!!

MARCH: 2008= THE GREAT TSUNAMI OF 24 STATES!!!Now many of them are moved back! Super Tuesday= March 6 as 10 states have primaries

April/May: are 2-5 states a weekJune: California, Montana, New Jersey, New

Mexico, South Dakota,Ohio, Utah primaries

National Conventions for 2012

April: Constitution (Nashville, TN)May: Libertarian (Las Vegas NV)June: Americans Elect (online)August: Republican (Tampa FL)September: Democrat (Charlotte NC)Already chosen 3rd party!!!June 2011: Prohibition Party October 2011: Socialist PartyGreen ??

Campaigning for Nomination

“Invisible Primary”: the process of preparing for the next election in which prospective candidates quietly begin lining up political/financial support for their likely race 4 years later

- exploratory campaign committees start registering with the FEC

Campaigning for Nomination

FRONTLOADING: Iowa and New Hampshire have been the testing grounds on candidate popularity

- IOWA: gets rid of candidates rejected by party faithful

- NH: tests Iowa frontrunners to ordinary party voters.

Campaigning for Nomination

Party out of Power will have numerous people contending- 2012= GOP

2008= numerous choices on both sides due to the fact that Bush could not run again!

Nomination for Congress/State

Primary election: 1. Closed Primary: declare/vote by party2. Open Primary: no declare/vote by party

(some say this weakens parties)3. Modified Closed: individual state parties

decide whether to permit independent voters to vote (when/how)

4. Modified Open: entitles independent voters to vote in a party’s primary

Nomination for Congress/State

In both parties, only about 1/2 regular party voters bother to vote in any given primary ….- do primary voters have extreme view?- unrepresentative of the whole?- choose best option of winner and not opinion??

Decline in competition? Only about 25% of statewide candidates actually face serious competition.

• http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c

Elections- general

GENERAL ELECTION: a national election held in November in even-numbered years.

1. All seats in House, 1/3 of Senate and lots of states and local offices filled

2. POTUS= every 4 years (2008, 2012)3. Congressional/midterm/off-year= in

between POTUS election (2010)

POTUS elections and Electoral College

Electoral College: structure1. State EC votes= senators + reps

1. 535 + 3 DC

2. Candidate needs 270 to win3. No majority? House decides (state=1)4. Every decade, # of electors change based on

congressional reapportionment done by census (WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE?)

5. 12th (1804): corrects the tie possibility (P/VP) because they run as pairs in single party

POTUS and Electoral College

Electoral College: politics1. Since 1860: all states have selected

electors by popular vote2. 2000: Florida legislature threatened to

select electors themselves on basis of pre 1860 precedent (Bush v. Gore) HANDOUT

3. Federal, not National1. Except for ME and NE, a candidate who wins a

state wins all electoral votes2. 2000: possible to win popular and not Electoral

Reform the EC?

1. Public opinion opposed to EC 2. Arguments against?

* FAITHLESS ELECTORS: electors who break their pledge to a candidate when they gather at the state capital to cast their written ballots

3. Arguments for?4. Suggested reforms?

Congressional Elections

1. Straight-ticket:

2. Split-ticket:

3. 1st past the post: elections conducted in single member districts that award victory to candidate with the most votes

1. Party that wins the most votes tends to win even more seats than projected due to % of vote

2. Both parties do well and are hurt by this

Campaign-political context

1. Incumbent, challenger or open election?

1. Incumbent= “easier win”2. Open= more candidates

2. Characteristics of state or district1. Bigger, more populous, more diverse=

more complicated/$$$$ campaign2. Party preference of electorate?

CAMPAIGN FINANCE!!!

SEE HANDOUT!!!

1. Campaigns can boil down to $$$, but does not ENSURE success

1. Mitt Romney 2008

2. Ross Perot 1992

CAMPAIGN FINANCE

2. REGULATIONS1. FECA (1971)2. FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION

(FEC): bipartisan fed. Agency of 6 members who oversees financing of national election campaigns1. Enforce contribution limits2. Require disclosure on spending3. Admin public finance of POTUS campaign

REGULATIONS CONT.

1. Limit PAC contributions2. Limit individuals/organization contribution

1. HARD MONEY: DIRECT CONT. TO CANDIDATE’S ELECTION

2. SOFT MONEY: DONATION TO PARTY COMM :)

3. Limits on hard money were challenged on basis of free speech (BUCKLEY V. VALEO 1975)

1. SC upheld hard money limits2. SC struck down limits on expenses by candidate3. FEC can only regulate ads for or against language

4. FECA governed national elections until 2002

Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA)

1. Went into effect 2004 election2. Raised previous limits on individual

spending and adjusted for inflation3. Did not raise PAC contribution limits4. Eliminated soft money contributions5. Banned orgs from running issue ads

that named candidates before an election

BCRA and 527s

527??: committees named after sec. 527 in IRS code (tax exempt status in election campaigns if they are unaffiliated with pp and take positions on issues not candidates.

1. Can spend unlimited $$ for media !!2. $151 million (2002)- $424 million (2004)3. Ban of issue ads run before an election

struck down by SC in 2007 (Shays v. FEC)

BCRA and 527s

4. Many groups no longer organize as 527s1. 501 social welfare org: groups of IRS code that

operate for promotion of social welfare= they are exempt from reporting donors if they spend money on issues, not candidates!

5. EFFECTS of BCRA1. Parties develop infrastructure to raise money

money from small donors2. Raised more hard money than combined

hard/soft from before… so BCRA= increased campaign money!

STRATEGIES AND TACTICS

S= broad approach to persuade citizens to vote for the candidate

T= content of the messages and way they are deliveredBasic Strategies:1. Party-centered2. Issue-oriented3. Candidate-oriented4. Tailored to political context5. Use info obtained by professionals to

develop/implement strategy

MEDIA STRATEGY!

1. News coverage is valuable1. Free??2. Seems objective to audience

2. Incumbents have the advantage 3. Effective campaigns recognize the

limitations of both news media and audience

4. National news tend to focus on the “horse race”

Advertising the Candidate

1. Objective of paid advertising1. Name recognition2. Promotion of virtues3. Attack the opponent/play on emotions

Watch ads for past candidates on living room candidate

2. Most ad uses electronic media

continued

3. Political ads contain more substance than many believe

1. Policy positions may be deceptive2. Both attack/contrast ads carry more policy info

than pure advocacy ads3. Media may report controversial ads as news4. Finding about impact of neg ads are ambiguous5. BCRA contains provision to reduce neg ads-->

candidates must announce that they “approve” any ad run by their campaign

INTERNET USE

1. 1992-2002: develops as campaign medium

2. Fast, easy and cheap

3. Voters use the internet a lot!!

4. Online ads small on campaign $$ because local TV reaches average voter better

Voter choices…

1. Party identification1. More than 1/2 decide how to vote before party

convention ends in summer2. Early vote decision usually = vote according to

party id3. Defection usually by candidate attributes/issues4. Characteristics of vote for winning POTUS

1. Gains the votes of nearly all of those who id with party2. Takes some of his opponents’ id3. Wins most of the independents

Voter choices…

2. Issues and policies1. Candidates seek to exploit issues they

think is important to voters

2. Challengers campaign by pointing out probs and promising to fix

3. Incumbents try to campaign on accomplishments

Voter choices…

3. Candidate attributes1. Esp. important when voters lack info

about past behavior and policy stands

2. Some voters fall back on their beliefs about religion, gender and race to judge candidate

Voter choices…

4. Evaluating the voting choice1. Rational voting= we vote based on performance

and proposed policy

2. Studies= candidate attribute/party more important than issues

3. Correlation b/w issue position and party id

4. Alignment of party and ideology has increased with congressional voting

Voter choices…

5. Campaign effects1. TV campaign

1. “sound bites”= cand. Can not rely on news to relay message

2. Entertainment coverage?

3. Fight mostly through tv ads

4. Adds target “swing” states

2. Debates1. Fixture since 1976

2. Incumbents reluctant unless on own terms…