chapter 3 marketing decision making and case analysis
TRANSCRIPT
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Chapter 3
Marketing Decision Making
and Case Analysis
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1. Decision-Making Process
Define the Problem
Enumerate the Decision Factors
Consider Relevant Information
Identify the Best Alternative
Develop an Implementation Plan
Evaluate the decision and decision
process
In this chapter, you will learn about…
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2. Preparing and presenting a case
analysis
Approaching the case analysis
Formulating the case analysis
Communicating the case analysis
In this chapter, you will learn about…
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Decision Making
“Decision making is a rational and
systematic process. Its organization is a
definite sequence of steps, each of them
in turn rational and systematic.”
- Peter Drucker
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Decision Making
Define the Problem
Enumerate Decision Factors
Consider Relevant Information
Identify the Best Alternative
Develop a Plan for Implementing the Chosen Alternative
Evaluate the Decision and the Decision Process
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Define the Problem
Objectives of the decision maker
Recognition of constraints
Clear success measure or goal for assessing progress toward solving the problem
e.g., El Nacho Foods
A well-defined problem outlines the
framework within which a solution can
be derived. It includes:
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Enumerate the Decision Factors
Factors to be enumerated
Controllable
Alternative
Courses of Action
Uncertainties in
the Competitive
Environment
Uncontrollable
e.g., Arrow Shirts
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Consider Relevant Information
“The truly successful managers and
leaders of the [twenty-first] century will…
be characterized not by how they can
access information, but how they can
access the most relevant information and
differentiate it from the exponentially
multiplying masses of non-relevant
information.”
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Consider Relevant Information
Characteristics of the industry and
competitive environment
Characteristics of the organization
Characteristics of the alternatives
under consideration
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Consider Relevant Information
Points to Remember
1. Resist the temptation to consider
everything in a case as a “fact”
2. Create relevant information, if
not available, by blending
together data given in the case
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Identify the Best Alternative
Decision analysis
Matches each alternative identified by
the manager with the uncertainties
existing in the environment and
assigns a quantitative value to the
outcome associated with each match.
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Identify the Best AlternativeSample Decision Tree
Company Action
CompetitiveResponse
FinancialOutcome
Maintain price
Reduce price further
$150,000
$110,000
Reduce price
Maintain price
Maintain price
Reduce price further
$175,000
$90,000
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Identify the Best Alternative
Expected Monetary Value
The Expected Monetary Value (EMV) of a
decision alternative is:
Outcome of Uncertainty1 x P(Uncertainty1)
+ Outcome of Uncertainty2 x P(Uncertainty2)
+ …
+ Outcome of Uncertaintyn x P(Uncertaintyn)
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Expected value of reducing price: (0.9) ($150000) + (0.1) ($110000) = $146,000
Expected value of maintaining price: (0.9) ($175000) + (0.1) ($90000) = $166,500
Competitors maintain price
(Probability=0.9)
Competitors reduce price
(Probability=0.1)
Reduce Price
Maintain Price
$150,000
$175,000
$110,000
$90,000
Alternatives
Uncertainties
Identify the Best AlternativeSample Payoff Table
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Expected value of certainty: (0.9)($175000) + (0.1)($110000) = $168,500
Expected value of perfect info: EMVcertainty– EMVbest alt.: $168500 - $166500 = $2,000
Competitors maintain price
(Probability=0.9)
Competitors reduce price
(Probability=0.1)
Reduce Price
Maintain Price
$150,000
$175,000
$110,000
$90,000
Alternatives
Uncertainties
Identify the Best AlternativeExpected Value of Perfect Information
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Familiarity with decision analysis is important for
FOUR reasons:
1. It is a fundamental tool for considering “what if” situations
2. It forces the case analyst to quantify outcomes associated with specific actions
3. It is useful in a variety of settings – product, communication, channel, or pricing decisions
4. It can be used in determining the value of “perfect” information
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Develop a Plan for Implementing the Chosen
Alternative
Resource allocation and timing
Strategy formulation
Strategy implementation
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Evaluate the Decision
Was a decision made?
Was the decision appropriate, given the
situation identified in the case setting?
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Evaluate the Decision Process
1. Did I define the problem accurately?
2. Did I identify all pertinent alternatives and uncertainties? Were my assumptions realistic?
3. Did I consider all information relevant to the decision?
4. Did I recommend the appropriate course of action?
5. Did I consider how my recommendation could be implemented?
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Case AnalysisApproaching the Case
Become familiar with the issue(s) at
hand
Identify key “facts and assumptions”
Do not rush to a conclusion
Do not “work the numbers” until you
understand their meaning
Do not confuse supposition with fact
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Nature of the industry, market,
and buying behavior
The organization
A plan of action
Potential outcomes
Case AnalysisFormulating the Analysis
Framework for Analysis
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What is the nature of industry structure, conduct, and performance?
Who are the competitors, and what are their strengths and weaknesses?
How do consumers buy in this industry or market?
Can the market be segmented? How? Can the segments be quantified?
What are the requirements for success in this industry?
Formulating the AnalysisNature of the Industry, Market,
and Buying Behavior
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What are the organization’s mission,
objectives, and distinctive competency?
What is its offering to the market? How
can its past and present performance be
characterized? What is its potential?
What is the situation in which the
manager or organization finds itself?
What factors have contributed to the
present situation?
Formulating the AnalysisThe Organization
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What actions are available to the organization?
What are the costs and benefits of actions in both qualitative and quantitative terms?
Is there a disparity between what the organization wants to do, should do, can do, and must do?
Formulating the AnalysisA Plan of Action
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What will be the buyer, trade, and competitive response to each course of action?
How will each course of action satisfy buyer, trade, and organization requirements?
What is the potential profitability of each course of action?
Will the action enhance or reduce the organization’s ability to compete in the future?
Formulating the AnalysisPotential Outcomes
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Class discussion
Oral presentation
Written report
Case AnalysisCommunicating the Analysis
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Communicating the Analysis
1. Title of presentation and presenters’ names
2. Presentation outline
3. Key problems and strategic issues
4. Analysis of company’s situation
5. Recommendations with supporting arguments and reasoning for each recommendation
The oral presentation should have five major sections:
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1. Identification of the strategic issues and problems
2. Analysis and evaluation
3. Recommendations
Written Report should have three major sections:
Communicating the Analysis