chapter 3 continued, population structure
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Chapter 3 continued, Population Structure. Age structure of population – an indicator of state of development Relationship between age structure and demands for public services (education, health care…..) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Chapter 3 continued, Population Structure
• Age structure of population – an indicator of state of development
• Relationship between age structure and demands for public services (education, health care…..)
• Population pyramids as indicators of age and gender structure of populations – typically constructed around 5 year age cohorts
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Rate of Natural Increase – any places in stage 1 demographic transition, what about stages
2 & 3, and about stage 4?
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Cape Verde – high birth rates, low death rates, high natural increase
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Chile – Declining Death Rate, declining rate of natural increase
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Denmark – low birth and death rates, low rate of natural increase
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Washington State Population Pyramids
Population PyramidWA State, 2000
US Census
6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
0 - 45 - 9
10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84
85 +
Males Females
Higher % ofelderly femalesthan males
Relatively evendistribution upto about 50-54, typical of a developed economy
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Big agriculture countiesAdams, Grant, Yakima
College counties – Whitman,Kittitas, Whatcom
Retirement counties Jefferson, Pacific, San Juan
Old wheat countiesColumbia, Garfield
Suburbs - Clark, Snohomish
Professional – King
Poor w/few 20’s-40’s: Stevens, Pend Oreille, Ferry
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The Baby Boom and Its Impacts• In the U.S., this 90 million mass of people hit the
labor market in the 1960’s, and will be retiring soon (like me)
• The flood of workers is argued to have stimulated entrepreneurship & the demand for new products
• The burden of the baby boom on social service networks is about to be felt
• The baby-boom “echo”• The tempering influence of migration policy: will
we return to a more liberal period post-9-11?
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•Florida argues that theU.S. has reacted to the9-11 terrorist attacks in ways that stifle themovement of the creativeclass to the U.S.• He sees this as a drag onthe U.S. ability toto compete globallyin the development ofleading-edge industries• And U.S. educationalinstitutions are argued tonot be responding withincreased capacity forU.S. citizens
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Migration• A change in permanent residence• Migration motivations: push & pull factors• Migration motivations are more than economic:
social and environmental• Scale of movement: from local to interregional to
international – voluntary versus forced (Hurricane Katrina – is this diaspora permanent?
• Historic forced migration – e.g. African slave trade; intranational movements – WW II Jewish –current civil wars in Africa
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Economics of Migration: The Samuelson Model
Equilibrium – when wage rate differential equals travel costdifference between regions
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Migration Streams – Mexico to US
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Migration Streams Continued
• Lack of convergence in wage rates begets the Samuelson model
• Cultural influences – Europe, Asia, the Americas….. Globally a Tiebout process
• Impact of regulations – US post 9-11• Historic age selectivity• Impacts of migration – social conflict; guest
worker programs in Europe; welfare gains for in-migrants.
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Migration Patterns to the U.S.Absolute # into U.S. rising post-VietnamWar era to levels similar to end of 19th century
Remarkably different origins
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Broad Global Flows of Migrants
Clearlya flow from lowerincome tohigher incomelocations:
Is this supportfor the SamuelsonModel?
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Net Migration Rates for Countries
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Latin American Migration to U.S.
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Migration to and within Europe
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Migration due to
civil strife
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Migration among U.S. Census Regions – Much more detail is available
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The Gravity Model: “Social Physics”
Iij = k * PiPj
Dijb
where I is interaction between place i and j, p(i) and p(j) are populations of places I and j, k is an empirically derived constant,and D(i,j) is the distance between i and j, raised to an empirically derived constant, b.• Stewart, Ravenstein, Ullman
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Example of Gravity Model: Visitors to Olympic National Park
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Olympic National Park, Continued
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Olympic National Park, Cont.
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Travel to the 2004 AAG Meetings in DenverDenver
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 0.00005 0.0001 0.00015
probability of trip
dist
ance
Denver
Alaska & Hawaii
Colorado
R-square.02
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AAG Meetings in Denver, w/o CO, AK, and HI
Denver - W/O CO, AK & HI
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 20 40 60
probability of trip
dist
ance
Denver
AdjustedR-square-.02
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Summary• This chapter provides an overview of population
trends over the long-run• The Industrial Revolution – in different places at
different points in history – has had powerful impacts on population levels
• Migration and natural increase vary in their regional importance over time
• The Malthusian vision of population growth has been largely replaced by demographic transition models
• Population movements are affected by differences in income levels, but also by environment and politics
• The gravity model can be used to model some population movements, and spatial interaction for many phenomena