chapter 10 solar energy -...

AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RESOURCE ASSESSMENT

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Chapter 10Solar Energy

10.1.1 World solar energy resources and market • Theworld’soverallsolarenergyresourcepotential

isaround5.6gigajoules(GJ)(1.6megawatt-hours(MWh))persquaremetreperyear.ThehighestsolarresourcepotentialisintheRedSeaarea,includingEgyptandSaudiArabia.

• Solarenergyaccountedfor0.1percentofworldtotalprimaryenergyconsumptionin2007,althoughitsusehasincreasedsignificantlyinrecentyears.

• Governmentpoliciesandfallinginvestment costsandrisksareprojectedtobethemainfactorsunderpinningfuturegrowthinworld solar energy use.

• TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)initsreferencecaseprojectstheshareofsolarenergyintotalelectricitygenerationwillincreaseto1.2percentin2030–1.7percentinOECDcountriesand0.9percentinnon-OECDcountries.

10.1.2Australia’ssolarenergyresources• TheannualsolarradiationfallingonAustralia

isapproximately58millionpetajoules(PJ),approximately10000timesAustralia’sannualenergyconsumption.

• SolarenergyresourcesaregreaterinthenorthwestandcentreofAustralia,inareasthatdonothaveaccesstothenationalelectricitygrid.Accessingsolarenergyresourcesintheseareas

islikelytorequireinvestmentintransmissioninfrastructure(figure10.1).

• Therearealsosignificantsolarenergyresourcesinareaswithaccesstotheelectricitygrid.Thesolarenergyresource(annualsolarradiation)inareasofflattopographywithin25kmofexistingtransmissionlines(excludingNationalParks),isnearly500timesgreaterthantheannualenergyconsumptionofAustralia.

10.1.3KeyfactorsinutilisingAustralia’s solar resources• Solarradiationisintermittentbecauseofdaily

andseasonalvariations.However,thecorrelationbetweensolarradiationanddaytimepeakelectricitydemandmeansthatsolarenergyhasthepotentialtoprovideelectricityduringpeakdemandtimes.

• Solarthermaltechnologiescanalsooperateinhybridsystemswithfossilfuelpowerplants,and,withappropriatestorage,havethepotentialtoprovidebaseloadelectricitygeneration.Solarthermaltechnologiescanalsopotentiallyprovideelectricitytoremotetownshipsandminingcentreswherethecostofalternativeelectricitysourcesishigh.

• Photovoltaicsystemsarewellsuitedtooff-gridelectricitygenerationapplications,andwherecostsofelectricitygenerationfromothersourcesarehigh(suchasinremotecommunities).

10.1Summary

K E y m E S S a g E S

• Solarenergyisavastandlargelyuntappedresource.Australiahasthehighestaveragesolarradiationpersquaremetreofanycontinentintheworld.

• Solarenergyisusedmainlyinsmalldirect-useapplicationssuchaswaterheating.Itaccountsforonly0.1percentoftotalprimaryenergyconsumption,inAustraliaaswellasglobally.

• SolarenergyuseinAustraliaisprojectedtoincreaseby5.9percentperyearto24PJin 2029–30.

• Theoutlookforelectricitygenerationfromsolarenergydependscriticallyonthecommercialisationoflarge-scalesolarenergytechnologiesthatwillreduceinvestmentcostsandrisks.

• Governmentpolicysettingswillcontinuetobeanimportantfactorinthesolarenergymarketoutlook.Research,developmentanddemonstrationbyboththepublicandprivatesectorswillbecrucialinacceleratingthedevelopmentandcommercialisationofsolarenergyinAustralia,especiallylarge-scalesolarpowerstations.


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andconcentratingsolarthermaltechnologies.

• InABARE’slatestlong-termenergyprojections,

whichincludetheRenewableEnergyTarget,a5

percentemissionsreductiontarget,andother

governmentpolicies,solarenergyuseinAustralia

isprojectedtoincreasefrom7PJin2007–08

to24PJin2029–30(figure10.2).Electricity

generationfromsolarenergyisprojectedto

increasefrom0.1TWhin2007–08to4TWhin

2029–30(figure10.3).

10.2Backgroundinformationandworldmarket

10.2.1DefinitionsSolarpowerisgeneratedwhenenergyfromthesun

(sunlight)isconvertedintoelectricityorusedtoheatair,

water,orotherfluids.Asillustratedinfigure10.4,there

aretwomaintypesofsolarenergytechnologies:

• Relativelyhighcapitalcostsandrisksremaintheprimarylimitationtomorewidespreaduseofsolarenergy.Governmentclimatechangepolicies,andresearch,developmentanddemonstration(RD&D)byboththepublicandprivatesectorswillbecriticalinthefuturecommercialisationoflargescalesolarenergysystemsforelectricitygeneration.

• TheAustralianGovernmenthasestablishedaSolarFlagshipsProgramatacostof$1.5billionaspartofitsCleanEnergyInitiativetosupporttheconstructionanddemonstrationoflargescale(upto1000MW)solarpowerstationsinAustralia.

10.1.4Australia’ssolarenergymarket• In2007–08,Australia’ssolarenergyuse

represented0.1percentofAustralia’stotalprimaryenergyconsumption.Solarthermalwaterheatinghasbeenthepredominantformofsolarenergyusetodate,butelectricitygenerationis increasingthroughthedeploymentofphotovoltaic

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Figure 10.1 Annualaveragesolarradiation(inMJ/m2)andcurrentlyinstalledsolarpowerstationswithacapacity ofmorethan10kW

Source: BureauofMeteorology2009;GeoscienceAustralia

CHAPTER 10: SOLAR ENERGY


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Figure 10.2 ProjectedprimaryconsumptionofsolarenergyinAustralia

Source: ABARE2009a,2010

Figure 10.3 ProjectedelectricitygenerationfromsolarenergyinAustralia


Electricity

AERA 10.4

Solar cells, photovoltaic arraysPhotovoltaics (PV)

Parabolic trough, power tower,parabolic dish, fresnel reflector

Concentrating Solar Thermal

Heat exchangeSolar Thermal

Space heating, food processingand cooking, distillation,desalination, industrial

hot water

Process Heat

Solar Radiation

Solar Hot Water

Figure 10.4 SolarenergyflowsSource: ABAREandGeoscienceAustralia

• Solar thermalistheconversionofsolarradiationintothermalenergy(heat).Thermalenergycarriedbyair,water,orotherfluidiscommonlyuseddirectly,forspaceheating,ortogenerateelectricityusingsteamandturbines.Solarthermaliscommonlyusedforhotwatersystems.Solarthermalelectricity,alsoknownasconcentratingsolarpower,istypicallydesignedforlargescalepowergeneration.

• Solar photovoltaic (PV)convertssunlight directlyintoelectricityusingphotovoltaiccells.PVsystemscanbeinstalledonrooftops,integratedintobuildingdesigns andvehicles,orscaleduptomegawatt scalepowerplants.PVsystemscanalsobeusedinconjunctionwithconcentratingmirrorsorlensesforlargescalecentralisedpower.


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ThehighestsolarresourcepotentialperunitlandareaisintheRedSeaarea.Australiaalsohashigherincidentsolarenergyperunitlandareathananyothercontinentintheworld.However,thedistributionofsolarenergyuseamongstcountriesreflectsgovernmentpolicysettingsthatencourageitsuse,ratherthanresourceavailability.

World solar resourcesTheamountofsolarenergyincidentontheworld’slandareafarexceedstotalworldenergydemand.Solarenergythushasthepotentialtomakeamajorcontributiontotheworld’senergyneeds.However,largescalesolarenergyproductioniscurrentlylimitedbyitshighcapitalcost.

Theannualsolarresourcevariesconsiderably aroundtheworld.Thesevariationsdependon severalfactors,includingproximitytotheequator,cloudcover,andotheratmosphericeffects. Figure10.6illustratesthevariationsinsolar energyavailability.

TheEarth’ssurface,onaverage,hasthepotentialtocapturearound5.4GJ(1.5MWh)ofsolarenergypersquaremetreayear(WEC2007).ThehighestresourcepotentialisintheRedSeaarea,includingEgyptandSaudiArabia(figure10.6).AustraliaandtheUnitedStatesalsohaveagreatersolarresourcepotentialthantheworldaverage.Muchofthispotentialcanbeexplainedbyproximitytotheequatorandaverageannualweatherpatterns.

SolarthermalandPVtechnologycanalsobecombinedintoasinglesystemthatgeneratesbothheatandelectricity.FurtherinformationonsolarthermalandPVtechnologiesisprovidedinboxes10.2and10.3insection10.4.

10.2.2SolarenergysupplychainArepresentationoftheAustraliansolarindustryisgiveninfigure10.5.Thepotentialforusingsolarenergyatagivenlocationdependslargelyonthesolarradiation,theproximitytoelectricityloadcentres,andtheavailabilityofsuitablesites.Largescalesolarpowerplantsrequireapproximately2hectaresoflandperMWofpower.Smallscaletechnologies(solarwaterheaters,PVmodulesandsmall-scalesolarconcentrators)canbeinstalledonexistingstructures,suchasrooftops.Onceasolarprojectisdeveloped,theenergyiscapturedbyheatingafluidorgasorbyusingphotovoltaiccells.Thisenergycanbeuseddirectlyashotwatersupply,convertedtoelectricity,usedasprocessheat,orstoredbyvariousmeans,suchasthermalstorage,batteries,pumpedhydroorsynthesisedfuels.

10.2.3WorldsolarenergymarketTheworldhaslargesolarenergyresourceswhichhavenotbeengreatlyutilisedtodate.Solarenergycurrentlyaccountsforaverysmallshareofworldprimaryenergyconsumption,butitsuseisprojectedtoincreasestronglyovertheoutlookperiodto2030.

End Use MarketProcessing, Transport,

StorageDevelopment and

Production

Industry

Commercial

Residential

AERA 10.5

Electricity

Power plants

Solar collection

Electricity

Thermalstorage

Solar photovoltaic

Resource potentialSolar thermal

Resource Exploration

Water heating

Batterystorage

Developmentdecision

Figure 10.5 Australia’ssolarenergysupplychainSource: ABAREandGeoscienceAustralia



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increasingatanaveragerateof10percentperyearfrom2000to2007(table10.1).Increasedconcernwithenvironmentalissuessurroundingfossilfuels,coupledwithgovernmentpoliciesthatencouragesolarenergyuse,havedrivenincreaseduptakeofsolartechnologies,especiallyPV.

From1985to1989,worldsolarenergyconsumptionincreasedatanaveragerateof19percentperyear(figure10.7).From1990to1998,therateofgrowthinsolarenergyconsumptiondecreasedto5percentperyear,beforeincreasingstronglyagainfrom1999to2007(figure10.7).

Primary energy consumptionSincesolarenergycannotcurrentlybestoredformorethanseveralhours,nortradedinitsprimaryform,solarenergyconsumptionisequaltosolarenergyproduction.Longtermstorageofsolarenergyiscurrentlyundergoingresearchanddevelopment,buthasnotyetreachedcommercialstatus.

SolarenergycontributesonlyasmallproportiontoAustralia’sprimaryenergyneeds,althoughitsshareiscomparabletotheworldaverage.Whilesolar energyaccountsforonlyaround0.1percentofworldprimaryenergyconsumption,itsusehasbeen

AERA 10.6

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Figure 10.6 Hoursofsunlightperday,duringtheworstmonthoftheyearonanoptimallytiltedsurfaceSource: SunwizeTechnologies2008

Table 10.1 Keystatisticsforthesolarenergymarket

unit australia 2007–08

OECD 2008

World 2007

Primary energy consumptiona PJ 6.9 189.4 401.8

Shareoftotal % 0.12 0.09 0.08

Averageannualgrowth,from2000 % 7.2 4.3 9.6

Electricity generation

Electricityoutput TWh 0.1 8.2 4.8

Shareoftotal % 0.04 0.08 0.02

Averageannualgrowth,from2000 % 26.1 36.3 30.8

Electricitycapacity GW 0.1 8.3 14.7

a Energyproductionandprimaryenergyconsumptionareidentical Source:IEA2009b;ABARE2009a;Watt2009;EPIA2009


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theremainderisusedforspaceheatingeitherresidentiallyorcommercially,andforheatingswimmingpools.Alloftheenergyusedfor thesepurposesiscollectedusingsolarthermaltechnology.

Themajorityofsolarenergyisproducedusing solarthermaltechnology;solarthermalcomprised 96percentoftotalsolarenergyproductionin 2007(figure10.7).Aroundhalfisusedforwaterheatingintheresidentialsector.Mostof

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Figure 10.7 Worldprimarysolarenergyconsumption, bytechnology

Source: IEA2009b

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b) Share in primary energy consumption

Figure 10.8 Directuseofsolarthermalenergy, bycountry,2007

Source: IEA2009b

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

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a) Solar electricity generation

b) Share in total electricity generation

Republic ofKorea

Republic ofKorea

Figure 10.9 Worldelectricitygenerationfromsolarenergy,bytechnology

Source: IEA2009b

Figure 10.10 Electricitygenerationfromsolarenergy,majorcountries,2007

Source: IEA2009b



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3percentofsolarthermalenergyisconvertedtoelectricity.Until2003,moresolarthermalenergywasusedtogenerateelectricitythansolarphotovoltaicenergy(figure10.9).

Thelargestproducersofelectricityfromsolar energyin2007wereGermany(3.1TWh),theUnitedStates(0.7TWh)andSpain(0.5TWh),withallothercountrieseachproducing0.1TWhorless(figure10.10).Germanyhadthelargestshareofsolarenergyinelectricitygeneration,at0.5percent.Itisimportanttonotethattheseelectricitygenerationdatadonotincludeoff-gridPVinstallations,whichrepresentalargepartofPVuseinsomecountries.

Solar thermal energy consumptionThelargestusersofsolarthermalenergyin2007wereChina(180PJ),theUnitedStates(62PJ),Israel(31PJ)andJapan(23PJ).However,Israelhasasignificantlylargershareofsolarthermalinitstotalprimaryenergyconsumptionthananyothercountry(figure10.8).Growthinsolarthermalenergyuseinthesecountrieshasbeenlargelydrivenbygovernmentpolicies.

Electricity generationElectricitygenerationaccountsforaround5percentofprimaryconsumptionofsolarenergy.Allsolarphotovoltaicenergyiselectricity,whilearound

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Australia’s share ofsolar PV market (%)

Figure 10.11 WorldPVCapacity,1992–2007,includingoff-gridinstallationsSource: IEA-PVPS2008

Table 10.2 IEAreferencecaseprojectionsforworldsolarelectricitygeneration

unit 2007 2030

OECD TWh 4.60 220

Shareoftotal % 0.05 1.66

Averageannualgrowth,2007–2030 % - 18

Non-OECD TWh 0.18 182



World TWh 4.79 402



Source: IEA2009a


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Figure 10.12 AnnualaveragesolarradiationSource: BureauofMeteorology2009

Installed PV generation capacityTheIEA’sestimatesoftotalPVelectricitygenerationcapacity(includingoff-gridgeneration)showthatJapan(1.9GW)andtheUnitedStates(0.8GW)hadthesecondandthirdlargestPVcapacityin2007,followingGermanywith3.9GW(figure10.11).Over90percentofthiscapacitywasconnectedtogrids(WEC2009).

World market outlookGovernmentincentives,fallingproductioncostsandrisingelectricitygenerationpricesareprojectedtoresultinincreasesinsolarelectricitygeneration.Electricitygenerationfromsolarenergyisprojected toincreaseto402TWhby2030,growingatanaveragerateof21percentperyeartoaccountfor1.2percentoftotalgeneration(table10.2).Solarelectricityisprojectedtoincreasemoresignificantlyinnon-OECDcountriesthaninOECDcountries,albeitfromamuchsmallerbase.

PVsystemsinstalledinbuildingsareprojectedtobethemainsourceofgrowthinsolarelectricitygenerationto2030.PVelectricityisprojectedto

increasetoalmost280TWhin2030,while electricitygeneratedfromconcentratingsolar powersystemsisprojectedtoincreasetoalmost124TWhby2030(IEA2009a).

10.3Australia’ssolarenergyresources and market

10.3.1SolarresourcesAsalreadynoted,theAustraliancontinenthasthehighestsolarradiationpersquaremetreofanycontinent(IEA2003);however,theregionswiththehighestradiationaredesertsinthenorthwestandcentreofthecontinent(figure10.12).

Australiareceivesanaverageof58millionPJofsolarradiationperyear(BoM2009),approximately10000timeslargerthanitstotalenergyconsumptionof5772PJin2007–08(ABARE2009a).Theoretically,then,ifonly0.1percentoftheincomingradiationcouldbeconvertedintousableenergyatanefficiencyof10percent,allofAustralia’senergyneedscouldbesuppliedbysolarenergy.Similarly,theenergyfallingonasolar



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Concentrating solar powerFigure10.12showstheradiationfallingonaflatplane.ThisistheappropriatemeasureofradiationforflatplatePVandsolarthermalheatingsystems,butnotforconcentratingsystems.Forconcentratingsolarpower,includingbothsolarthermalpowerandconcentratingPV,theDirectNormalIrradiance(DNI)isamorerelevantmeasureofthesolarresource.Thisisbecauseconcentratingsolartechnologiescanonlyfocussunlightcomingfromonedirection,andusetrackingmechanismstoaligntheircollectorswiththedirectionofthesun.TheonlydatasetcurrentlyavailableforDNIthatcoversallofAustraliaisfromtheSurfaceMeteorologyandSolarEnergydatasetfromtheNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration(NASA).ThisdatasetprovidesDNIatacoarseresolutionof1degree,equatingtoagridlengthofapproximately100km.TheannualaverageDNIfromthisdatasetisshowninfigure10.13.

Sincethegridcellsizeisaround10000km2,thisdatasetprovidesonlyafirstorderindicationoftheDNIacrossbroadregionsofAustralia.However,itisadequatetodemonstratethatthespatialdistribution

farmcovering50kmby50kmwouldbesufficienttomeetallofAustralia’selectricityneeds(Stein2009a).Giventhisvastandlargelyuntappedresource,thechallengeistofindeffectiveandacceptablewaysofexploitingit.

WhiletheareasofhighestsolarradiationinAustraliaaretypicallylocatedinland,therearesomegrid-connectedareasthathaverelativelyhighsolarradiation.WyldGroupandMMA(2008)identifiedanumberoflocationsthataresuitableforsolarthermalpowerplants,basedonhighsolarradiationlevels,proximitytolocalloads,andhighelectricitycostsfromalternativesources.WithintheNationalElectricityMarket(NEM)gridcatchmentarea,theyidentifiedthePortAugustaregioninSouthAustralia,north-westVictoria,andcentralandnorth-westNewSouthWalesasregionsofhighpotentialforsolarthermalpower.TheyalsonominatedKalbarri,nearGeraldton,WesternAustralia,ontheSouth-WestInterconnectedSystem,theDarwin-KatherineInterconnectedSystem,andAliceSprings-TennantCreekaslocationsofhighpotentialforsolar thermalpower.

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Figure 10.13 DirectNormalSolarIrradianceSource: NASA2009


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powertowers,dishesandPVsystemsarenotrestrictedtoflatland,whichrenderseventhisfigureaconservativeestimate.

Seasonal variations in resource availabilityTherearealsosignificantseasonalvariationsintheamountofsolarradiationreachingAustralia.WhilesummerradiationlevelsaregenerallyveryhighacrossallofinlandAustralia,winterradiationhasamuchstrongerdependenceonlatitude.Figures10.15and10.16showacomparisonoftheDecemberandJuneaveragedailysolarradiation.Thesamecolourschemehasbeenusedthroughoutfigures10.12to10.16toallowvisualcomparisonoftheamountofradiationineachfigure.

Insomestates,suchasVictoria,SouthAustralia andQueensland,theseasonalvariationinsolarradiationcorrelateswithaseasonalvariationinelectricitydemand.Thesesummerpeakdemandperiods–causedbyair-conditioningloads–coincidewiththehoursthatthesolarresourceisatitsmostabundant.However,thetotaldemandacrosstheNationalElectricityMarket(comprisingallofthe

ofDNIdiffersfromthatofthetotalradiationshowninfigure10.12.Inparticular,thereareareasofhighDNIincentralNewSouthWalesandcoastalregionsofWesternAustraliathatarelessevidentinthetotalradiation.MoredetailedmappingofDNIacrossAustraliaisneededtoassessthepotential forconcentratingsolarpoweratalocalscale.

Sometypesofsolarthermalpowerplants,includingparabolictroughsandFresnelreflectors,needto beconstructedonflatland.Itisestimatedthat about2hectaresoflandarerequiredperMWofpowerproduced(Stein2009a).Figure10.14showssolarradiation,wherelandwithaslopeofgreaterthan1percent,andlandfurtherthan25kmfromexistingtransmissionlineshasbeenexcluded. LandwithinNationalParkshasalsobeenexcluded.Theseexclusionthresholdsofslopeanddistancetogridarenotpreciselimitsbutintendedtobeindicativeonly.Evenwiththeselimits,theannualradiationfallingonthecolouredareasinfigure10.14is2.7millionPJ,whichamountstonearly500timestheannualenergydemandofAustralia.Moreover,

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Figure 10.14 Annualsolarradiation,excludinglandwithaslopeofgreaterthan1percentandareasfurther than25kmfromexistingtransmissionlines

Source: BureauofMeteorology2009;GeoscienceAustralia



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infigure10.17,thegrowthratewasnotconstant;therewasconsiderablevariationfromyeartoyear.Thebulkofgrowthoverthisperiodwasintheformofsolarthermalsystemsusedfordomesticwaterheating.PVisalsousedtoproduceasmallamountofelectricity.Intotal,Australia’ssolarenergyconsumptionin2007–08was6.9PJ(1.9TWh),ofwhich6.5PJ(1.8TWh)wereusedforwaterheating(ABARE2009a).

Consumption of solar thermal energy, by stateStatisticsonPVenergyconsumptionbystatearenotavailable.However,PVrepresentsonly5.8percentoftotalsolarenergyconsumption;onthatbasis,statisticsonsolarthermalconsumptionbystateprovideareasonableapproximationofthedistributionoftotalsolarenergyconsumption.

WesternAustraliahasthehighestsolarenergyconsumptioninAustralia,contributing40percentofAustralia’stotalsolarthermalusein2007–08(figure10.18).NewSouthWalesandQueenslandcontributedanother26percentand15percentrespectively.Therateofgrowthofsolarenergyuse

easternstates,SouthAustraliaandTasmania)isrelativelyconstantthroughouttheyear,andoccasionallypeaksinwinterduetoheatingloads(AER2009).

10.3.2SolarenergymarketAustralia’smodestproductionanduseofsolarenergyisfocussedonoff-gridandresidentialinstallations.Whilesolarthermalwaterheatinghasbeenthepredominantformofsolarenergyusetodate,productionofelectricityfromPVandconcentrating

solarthermaltechnologiesisincreasing.

Primary energy consumptionAustralia’sprimaryenergyconsumptionofsolarenergyaccountedfor2.4percentofallrenewableenergyuseandaround0.1percentofprimaryenergyconsumptionin2007–08(ABARE2009a).Productionandconsumptionofsolarenergyarethesame,becausesolarenergycanonlybestoredforseveralhoursatpresent.

Overtheperiodfrom1999–2000to2007–08,Australia’ssolarenergyuseincreasedatanaveragerateof7.2percentperyear.However,asillustrated

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Figure 10.15 DecemberaveragesolarradiationSource: BureauofMeteorology2009


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Figure 10.16 JuneaveragesolarradiationSource: BureauofMeteorology2009

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Figure 10.17 Australia’sprimaryconsumptionofsolarenergy,bytechnologySource: IEA2009b;ABARE2009a



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ofboththeirthermalfuelinput,andtheirelectricaloutput.Theresultofthisdifferencebetweenfuelinputsandenergyoutputforfossilfuelsisthatsolarrepresentsalargershareofelectricitygenerationoutputthanoffuelinputstoelectricitygeneration.

In2007–08,0.11TWh(0.4PJ)ofelectricityweregeneratedfromsolarenergy,representing0.04percentofAustralianelectricitygeneration(figure10.19).Despiteitssmallshare,solarelectricitygenerationhasincreasedrapidlyinrecentyears.

Installed electricity generation capacityAustralia’stotalPVcapacityhasincreasedsignificantlyoverthelastdecade(figure10.20),andinparticularoverthelasttwoyears.ThishasbeendrivenprimarilybytheSolarHomesandCommunitiesPlanforon-gridapplicationsandtheRemoteRenewablePowerGenerationProgramforoff-gridapplications.Overthelasttwoyears,therehasbeenadramaticincreaseinthetake-upofsmallscalePV,withmorethan40MWinstalledin2009(figures10.20,10.23).Thisisduetoacombinationoffactors:supportprovidedthroughtheSolarHomesandCommunitiesprogram,greaterpublicawarenessofsolarPV,adropinthepriceofPVsystems,attributablebothtogreaterinternationalcompetitionamonganincreasednumberofsuppliersandadecreaseinworldwidedemandasaresultoftheglobalfinancialcrisis,astrongAustraliandollar,andhighlyeffectivemarketingbyPVretailers.

MostAustralianstatesandterritorieshaveinplace,orareplanningtoimplement,feed-intariffs.Whilethereissomecorrelationoftheirintroductionwithincreasedconsumeruptake,itistooearlytosuggestthatthesetariffshavebeensignificantcontributorstoit.Thecombinationofgovernmentpolicies,associatedpublicandprivateinvestmentinRD&Dmeasuresandbroadermarketconditionsarelikelytobethemaininfluences.

overthepastdecadehasbeensimilarinallstatesandterritories,rangingfromanaverageannualgrowthof7percentintheNorthernTerritoryandVictoria,toanaverageannualgrowthof11percentinNewSouthWales.

ArangeofgovernmentpolicysettingsfrombothAustralianandStategovernmentshaveresultedinasignificantincreaseintheuptakeofsmall-scalesolarhotwatersystemsinAustralia.Thecombinationofdrivers,includingthesolarhotwaterrebate,statebuildingcodes,theinclusionofsolarhotwaterundertheRenewableEnergyTargetandthemandatedphase-outofelectrichotwaterby2012,haveallcontributedtotheincreaseduptakeofsolarhotwatersystemsfrom7percentoftotalhotwatersysteminstallationsin2007to13percentin2008(BISShrapnel2008;ABARE2009a).

Electricity generationElectricitygenerationfromsolarenergyinAustraliaiscurrentlyalmostentirelysourcedfromPVinstallations,primarilyfromsmalloff-gridsystems.Electricitygenerationfromsolarthermalsystemsiscurrentlylimitedtosmallpilotprojects,althoughinterestinsolarthermalsystemsforlargescaleelectricitygenerationisincreasing.

Somecareinanalysisofgenerationdatainenergystatisticsiswarranted.Forenergyaccountingpurposes,thefuelinputstoasolarenergysystemareassumedtoequaltheenergygeneratedbythesolarsystem.Thus,thesolarelectricityfuelinputs inenergystatisticsrepresentthesolarenergycapturedbysolarenergysystems,ratherthanthesignificantlylargermeasureoftotalsolarradiationfallingonsolarenergysystems;howeverthisradiationisnotmeasuredinenergystatistics.Fossilfuelssuchasgasandcoalaremeasuredinterms

WesternAustralia

40%

Queensland15%

Victoria6%

Tasmania2%

NorthernTerritory

3%South

Australia8%

New SouthWales26%

AERA 10.18

Figure 10.18 Solarthermalenergyconsumption, bystate,2007–08

Source: ABARE2009a


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Figure 10.19 Australianelectricitygenerationfrom solar energy

Source: ABARE


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Thelargestcomponentofinstalledsolarelectricitycapacityisusedforoff-gridindustrialandagriculturalpurposes(41MW),withsignificantcontributionscomingfromoff-gridresidentialsystems(31MW),andgridconnecteddistributedsystems(30MW).Thislargeoff-gridusagereflectsthecapacityofPVsystemstobeusedasstand-alonegeneratingsystems,particularlyforsmallscaleapplications.Therehavealsobeenseveralcommercialsolarprojectsthatprovideelectricitytothegrid.

Recently completed solar projectsFivecommercial-scalesolarprojectswithacombinedcapacityofaround5MWhavebeencommissionedinAustraliasince1998(table10.3).AlloftheseprojectsarelocatedinNewSouthWales.Commissionedsolarprojectstodatehavehadsmallcapacitieswithfourofthefiveprojectscommissionedhavingacapacityoflessthanorequalto1MW.Theonlyprojecttohaveacapacityofmorethan1MW

Figure 10.20 PVinstalledcapacityfrom1992–2008Note: TheseestimatesrepresentthepeakpoweroutputofPVsystems.Theydonotrepresenttheaveragepoweroutputoverayear,assolarradiationvariesaccordingtofactorssuchasthetimeofday,thenumberofdaylighthours,theangleofthesunandthecloudcover.ThesecapacityestimatesareconsistentwiththePVproductiondatapresentedinthisreport

Source: Watt2009

Table 10.3 Recentlycompletedsolarprojects

Project Company State Start up Capacity

Singleton EnergyAustralia

NSW 1998 0.4MW

Newington Private NSW 2000 0.7MW

BrokenHill AustralianInlandEnergy

NSW 2000 1MW

Newcastle CSIRO NSW 2005 0.6MW

Liddell Ausra NSW Late2008

2MW

Source: GeoscienceAustralia2009

isAusra’s2008solarthermalattachmenttoLiddellpowerplant,whichhasapeakelectricpowercapacityof2MW(Ausra2009).Whilesomewhatlargerthanthemorecommondomesticorcommercialinstallations,thesearemodestly-sizedplants.However,thereareplansforconstructionofseverallargescalesolarpowerplantsundertheAustralianGovernment’sSolarFlagshipsProgram,whichwill usebothsolarthermalandPVtechnologies.

10.4Outlookto2030forAustralia’sresourcesandmarketSolarenergyisarenewableresource:increaseduseoftheresourcedoesnotaffectresourceavailability.However,thequantityoftheresourcethatcanbeeconomicallycapturedchangesovertimethroughtechnologicaldevelopments.

TheoutlookfortheAustraliansolarmarket dependsonthecostofsolarenergyrelativetootherenergyresources.Atpresent,solarenergyismoreexpensiveforelectricitygenerationthanothercurrentlyusedrenewableenergysources,suchashydro,wind,biomassandbiogas.Therefore,theoutlookforincreasedsolarenergyuptakedependsonfactorsthatwillreduceitscostsrelativetootherrenewablefuels.Thecompetitivenessofsolarenergyandrenewableenergysourcesgenerallywillalsodependongovernmentpoliciesaimedatreducinggreenhousegasemissions.

Solarenergyislikelytobeaneconomicallyattractiveoptionforremoteoff-gridelectricitygeneration.Thelong-termcompetitivenessofsolarenergyinlarge-



275

Solarwaterheatersarecontinuingtobedevelopedfurther,andcanalsobeintegrated withPVarrays.Otherdirectusesincludepassivesolarheating,andsolarairconditioning.Informationonsolarenergytechnologiesfordirect-useapplicationsispresentedinbox10.2.

WithbothsolarPVandsolarthermalgeneration,themajorityofcostsareborneinthecapitalinstallationphase,irrespectiveofthescaleorsizeoftheproject(figure10.21).ThelargestcostcomponentsofPVinstallationsarethecellsorpanelsandtheassociatedcomponentsrequiredtoinstallandconnectthepanelsasapowersource.Inaddition,theinverterthatconvertsthedirectcurrenttoalternatingcurrentneedstobereplacedatleastonceevery10years(Borenstein2008).However,therearenofuelcosts–oncethesystemisinstalled,apartfromreplacingtheinverter,thereshouldbenocostsassociatedwithrunningthesystemuntiltheendofitsusefullife(20to25years).Themajorchallenge,therefore,isinitialoutlay,withsomewhatmoremodestperiodiccomponentreplacement, andpaybackperiodfortheinvestment.

Currently,thecostofsolarenergyishigherthan othertechnologiesinmostcountries.TheminimumcostforsolarPVinareaswithhighsolarradiation isaroundUS23centsperkWh(EIA2009).

SolarthermalsystemshaveasimilarprofiletoPV,dependingonthescaleandtypeofinstallation.Thecostofelectricityproductionfromsolarenergyisexpectedtodeclineasnewtechnologiesaredevelopedandeconomiesofscaleimproveintheproductionprocesses.

Thecostofinstallingsolarcapacityhasgenerallybeendecreasing.BothPVandsolarthermaltechnologiescurrentlyhavesubstantialresearch anddevelopmentfundsdirectedtowardthem,andnewproductionprocessesareexpectedtoresultinacontinuationofthistrend(figure10.22).IntheUnited

scalegrid-connectedapplicationsdependsinlargemeasureontechnologicaldevelopmentsthatenhancetheefficiencyofenergyconversionandreducethecapitalandoperatingcostofsolarenergysystems andcomponentry.TheAustralianGovernment’s$1.5billionSolarFlagshipsprogram,announcedaspartoftheCleanEnergyInitiative,willsupporttheconstructionanddemonstrationoflargescale (upto1000MW)solarpowerstationsinAustralia. Itwillacceleratedevelopmentsolartechnologyand helppositionAustraliaasaworldleaderinthatfield.

10.4.1KeyfactorsinfluencingthefuturedevelopmentofAustralia’ssolarenergyresourcesAustraliaisaworldleaderindevelopingsolartechnologies(LovegroveandDennis2006),butuptakeofthesetechnologieswithinAustraliahasbeenrelativelylow,principallybecauseoftheir highcost.Anumberoffactorsaffecttheeconomicviabilityofsolarinstallations.

Solar energy technologies and costsResearchintobothsolarPVandsolarthermaltechnologiesislargelyfocussedonreducingcostsandincreasingtheefficiencyofthesystems.

• Electricity generation–commercial-scalegenerationprojectshavebeendemonstratedtobepossiblebutthecostofthetechnologyisstillrelativelyhigh,makingsolarlessattractiveandhigherriskforinvestors.Small-scalesolarPVarraysarecurrentlybestsuitedtoremoteandoff-gridapplications,withotherapplicationslargelydependentonresearchorgovernmentfundingtomakethemviable.Informationonsolarenergytechnologiesforelectricitygenerationispresentedinbox10.1.

• Direct-use applications–solarthermalhotwatersystemsfordomesticuserepresentthemostwidelycommercialisedsolarenergytechnology.

Cos

ts

Years = 25installation inverter replacement

AERA 10.21

Figure 10.21 IndicativesolarPVproductionprofile and costs

Source: ABARE

PV

Solar thermal

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AERA 10.22

Figure 10.22 Projectedaveragecapitalcostsfor newelectricitygenerationplantsusingsolarenergy, 2011to2030

Source: EIA2009


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Stand-alonePVsystemscanbelocatedclosetocustomers(forexampleonroofareasofresidentialbuildings),whichreducesthecostsofelectricitytransmissionanddistribution.However,concentratingsolarthermaltechnologiesrequiremorespecificconditionsandlargeareasofland(Lorenz,PinnerandSeitz2008)whichareoftenonlyavailablelongdistancesfromthecustomersneedingtheenergy. InAustralia,installingsmall-scaleresidentialormediumscalecommercialsystems(bothPVandthermal)canbehighlyattractiveoptionsforremoteareaswhereelectricityinfrastructureisdifficultorcostlytoaccess,andalternativelocalsourcesofelectricityareexpensive.

government policiesGovernmentpolicieshavebeenimplementedatseveralstagesofthesolarenergyproductionchaininAustralia.RebatesprovidedforsolarwaterheatingsystemsandresidentialPVinstallationsreducethecostofthesetechnologiesforconsumersandencouragetheiruptake.

TheSolarHomesandCommunitiesPlan(2000toJune2009)providedrebatesfortheinstallationofsolarPVsystems.ThecapacityofPVsystemsinstalledbyAustralianhouseholdsincreasedsignificantlyunderthisprogram(figure10.23). TheexpandedRETschemeincludestheSolar Creditsinitiative,whichprovidesamultipliedcreditforelectricitygeneratedbysmallsolarPVsystems. Solar Creditsprovidesanup-frontcapitalsubsidytowardstheinstallationofsmallsolarPVsystems.

TheAustralianGovernmenthasalsoannounced $1.5billionofnewfundingforitsSolarFlagshipsprogram.Thisprogramaimstoinstalluptofournewsolarpowerplants,withacombinedpoweroutputofupto1000MW,madeupofbothPVandsolarthermalpowerplants,withthelocationsandtechnologiestobedeterminedbyacompetitivetenderprocess.Theprogramaimstodemonstratenewsolartechnologiesatacommercialscale,therebyacceleratinguptakeofsolarenergyingeneralandprovidingtheopportunityforAustraliatodevelopleadershipinsolarenergytechnology(RET2009b).

TheAustralianGovernmenthasalsoallocatedfundingtoestablishtheAustralianSolarInstitute(ASI),whichwillbebasedinNewcastle.ItwillhavestrongcollaborativelinkswithCSIROandUniversitiesundertakingR&Dinsolartechnologies.TheinstitutewillaimtodrivedevelopmentofsolarthermalandPVtechnologiesinAustralia,includingtheareasofefficiencyandcosteffectiveness(RET2009a).

Othergovernmentpolicies,includingfeed-intariffs,whichareproposedoralreadyinplaceinmostAustralianstatesandterritories,mayalsoencouragetheuptakeofsolarenergy.

States,thecapitalcostofnewPVplantsisprojectedtofallby37percent(inrealterms)from2009to2030(EIA2009).

TheElectricPowerResearchInstitute(EPRI)hasdevelopedestimatesofthelevelisedcostoftechnologya,includingarangeofsolartechnologies,toenablethecomparisonoftechnologiesatdifferentlevelsofmaturity(Chapter2,figures2.18,2.19).Thesolartechnologiesconsideredareparabolictroughs,centralreceiversystems,fixedPVsystemsandtrackingPVsystems.Centralreceiversolarsystemswithstorageareforecasttohavethelowestcostsoftechnologyin2015.AddingstoragetothecentralreceiversystemsortoparabolictroughsisestimatedtodecreasethecostperKWhproduced,asitallowsthesystemtoproduceahigherelectricityoutput.TrackingPVsystemsareforecasttohavethelowestcostoftheoptionsthatdonotincorporatestorage.TheEPRItechnologystatusdatainfigures2.18and2.19showthat,althoughsolartechnologiesremainrelativelyhighcostoptionsthroughouttheoutlookperiod,significantreductionsincostareanticipatedby2030.ThesubstantialglobalRD&D(bygovernmentsandtheprivatesector)intosolartechnologies,includingtheAustralianGovernment’s$1.5billionSolarFlagshipsProgramtosupporttheconstructionanddemonstrationoflargescalesolarpowerstationsinAustralia,isexpectedtoplayakeyroleinacceleratingthedevelopmentanddeploymentofsolarenergy.

Thetimetakentoinstallordevelopasolarsystem ishighlydependentonthesizeandscaleoftheproject.Solarhotwatersystemscanbeinstalledinaroundfourhours.Small-scalePVsystemscansimilarlybeinstalledquiterapidly.However,commercialscaledevelopmentstakeconsiderablylonger,dependingonthetypeofinstallationandotherfactors,includingbroaderlocationorenvironmentalconsiderations.

Location of the resourceInAustralia,thebestsolarresourcesarecommonlydistantfromthenationalelectricitymarket(NEM),especiallythemajorurbancentresontheeasternseaboard.Thisposesachallengefordevelopingnewsolarpowerplants,asthereneedstobeabalancebetweenmaximisingthesolarradiationandminimisingthecostsofconnectivitytotheelectricitygrid.However,thereispotentialforsolarthermalenergyapplicationtoprovidebaseandintermediateloadelectricitywithfossil-fuelplants(suchasgasturbinepowerstations)inareaswithisolatedgridsystemsandgoodinsolationresources.ThereportbytheWyldGroupandMMA(2008)identifiedMountIsa,AliceSprings,TennantCreekandthePilbararegionasareaswiththesecharacteristics.AccesstoAustralia’smajorsolarenergyresources–aswithotherremoterenewableenergysources–islikelytorequireinvestmenttoextendtheelectricitygrid.

a ThisEPRItechnologystatusdataenablesthecomparisonoftechnologiesatdifferentlevelsofmaturity. Itshouldnotbeusedtoforecastmarketandinvestmentoutcomes.



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theenergyrequiredtoproduceitovera20yearsystemlifespan(MacKay2009).Inareaswithlesssolarradiation,suchasCentral-NorthernEurope,theenergyyieldratioisestimatedtobearoundfour.Thispositiveenergyyieldratioalsomeansthatgreenhousegasemissionsgeneratedfromtheproductionofsolarenergysystemsaremorethanoffsetoverthesystems’lifecycle,astherearenogreenhousegasemissionsgeneratedfromtheiroperation.

Mostsolarthermalelectricitygenerationsystemsrequirewaterforsteamproductionandthiswateruseaffectstheefficiencyofthesystem.Themajorityofthiswaterisconsumedin‘wetcooling’towers,whichuseevaporativecoolingtocondensethesteamafterithaspassedthroughtheturbine.Inaddition,solarthermalsystemsrequirewatertowashthemirrors,tomaintaintheirreflectivity(Jones2008).Itispossibletouse‘drycooling’towers,whicheliminatemostofthewaterconsumption,butthisreducestheefficiencyofthesteamcyclebyapproximately10percent(Stein2009b).

AfurtheroptionunderdevelopmentistheuseofhightemperatureBraytoncycles,whichdonotusesteamturbinesandthusdonotconsumewater.BraytoncyclesaremoreefficientthanconventionalRankine(steam)cycles,buttheycanonlybeachievedbypoint-focussingsolarthermaltechnologies(powertowersanddishes).

10.4.2OutlookforsolarenergymarketAlthoughsolarenergyismoreabundantinAustraliathanotherrenewableenergysources,plansforexpandingsolarenergyinAustraliagenerallyrelyonsubsidiestobeeconomicallyviable.Therearecurrentlyonlyasmallnumberofproposedcommercialsolarenergyprojects,mostlyofsmallscale.Solarenergyiscurrentlymoreexpensivetoproducethanotherformsofrenewableenergy,suchashydro,windandbiomass(WyldGroupandMMA2008).Intheshortterm,therefore,solarenergywillfinditdifficulttocompetecommerciallywithotherformsofcleanenergyforelectricitygenerationintheNEM.However,asglobaldeploymentofsolarenergytechnologiesincreases,thecostofthetechnologiesislikelytodecrease.Moreover,technologicaldevelopmentsandgreenhousegasemissionreductionpoliciesareexpectedtodriveincreaseduseofsolarenergyinthemediumandlongterm.

Key projections to 2029–30ABARE’slatest(2010)AustralianenergyprojectionsincludetheRET,a5percentemissionsreductiontarget,andothergovernmentpolicies.SolarenergyuseinAustraliaisprojectedtomorethantriple,from7PJin2007–08to24PJin2029–30,growingatanaveragerateof5.9percentayear(figure10.27,table10.4).Whilesolarwaterheatingisprojectedtoremainthepredominantuseforsolarenergy,theshareofPVintotalsolarenergyuseisprojectedtoincrease.

Infrastructure issuesThelocationoflargescalesolarpowerplants inAustraliawillbeinfluencedbythecostofconnectiontotheelectricitygrid.Intheshortterm,developmentsarelikelytofocusonisolatedgridsystemsornodestotheexistingelectricitygrid, sincethisminimisesinfrastructurecosts.

Inthelongerterm,theextensionofthegridtoaccessremotesolarenergyresourcesindesertregionsmayrequirebuildinglongdistancetransmissionlines.Thetechnologyneededtoachievethisexists:highvoltagedirectcurrent(HVDC)transmissionlinesareabletotransferelectricityoverthousandsofkilometres,withminimallosses.SomeHVDClinesarealreadyinuseinAustralia,andarebeingusedtoforminterstategridconnections;thelongestexamplebeingtheHVDClinkbetweenTasmaniaandVictoria.However,buildingaHVDClinktoasolarpowerstationindesertareaswouldrequirealargeup-frontinvestment.

Theideaofgeneratinglargescalesolarenergyinremotedesertregionshasbeenproposedonamuchlargerscaleinternationally.InJune2009theDESERTECFoundationoutlinedaproposaltobuildlargescalesolarfarmsinthesun-richregionsoftheMiddleEastandNorthernAfrica,andexporttheirpowertoEuropeusinglongdistanceHVDClines. Morerecently,anAsiaPacificSunbeltDevelopmentProjecthasbeenestablishedwiththeaimofmovingsolarenergybywayoffuelratherthanelectricityfromregionssuchasAustraliatothoseAsiancountrieswhoimportenergy,suchasJapanandKorea.Theseprojectsillustratethegrowinginternationalinterestinutilisinglargescalesolarpowerfromremoteandinhospitableareas,despitetheinfrastructurechallengesintransmittingortransportingenergyoverlongdistances.

Environmental issuesAroof-mounted,grid-connectedsolarsysteminAustraliaisestimatedtoyieldmorethanseventimes

0

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Figure 10.23 ResidentialPVcapacityinstalledundertheSolarHomesandCommunitiesPlan(asofOctober2009)

Source: DEWHA2009


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BOx 10.1SOLARENERGyTECHNOLOGIESFORELECTRICITyGENERATION

Sunlighthasbeenusedforheatingbygeneratingfireforhundredsofyears,butcommercialtechnologiesspecificallytousesolarenergytodirectlyheatwaterorgeneratepowerwerenotdevelopeduntilthe1800s.Solarwaterheatersdevelopedandinstalledbetween1910and1920werethefirstcommercialapplicationofsolarenergy.ThefirstPVcellscapableofconvertingenoughenergyintopowertorunelectricalequipmentwerenotdevelopeduntilthe1950sandthefirstsolarpowerstations(thermalandPV)withcapacityofatleast1megawattstartedoperatinginthe1980s.

Solar thermal electricitySolarthermalelectricityisproducedbyconvertingsunlightintoheat,andthenusingtheheattodrive agenerator.Thesunlightisconcentratedusingmirrors,andfocussedontoasolarreceiver.Thisreceivercontainsaworkingfluidthatabsorbstheconcentratedsunlight,andcanbeheateduptoveryhightemperatures.Heatistransferredfromtheworkingfluidtoasteamturbine,similartothoseusedinfossilfuelandnuclearpowerstations.Alternatively,theheatcanbestoredforlateruse(seebelow).

Therearefourmaintypesofconcentratingsolarreceivers,showninfigure10.24.Twoofthesetypesareline-focussing(parabolictroughandLinearFresnelreflector);theothertwoarepoint-focussing(paraboloidaldishandpowertower).Eachofthesetypesisdesignedtoconcentratealargeareaofsunlightontoasmallreceiver,whichenablesfluid tobeheatedtohightemperatures.Therearetrade-offsbetweenefficiency,landcoverage,andcosts ofeachtype.

Themostwidelyusedsolarconcentratoristheparabolictrough.Parabolictroughsfocuslightinoneaxisonly,whichmeansthattheyneedonlyasingleaxistrackingmechanismtofollowthedirectionofthesun.ThelinearFresnelreflectorachievesasimilarline-focus,butinsteadusesanarrayofalmostflatmirrors.LinearFresnelreflectorsachieveaweakerfocus(thereforelowertemperaturesandefficiencies)thanparabolictroughs.However,linearFresnelreflectorshavecost-savingfeaturesthatcompensateforlowerenergyefficiencies,includingagreateryieldperunitland,andsimplerconstructionrequirements.

Theparaboloidaldishisanalternatedesignwhichfocusessunlightontoasinglepoint.Thisdesignisabletoproduceamuchhighertemperatureatthe

Figure 10.24 Thefourtypesofsolarthermalconcentrators: (a)parabolictrough,(b)compactlinearFresnelreflector,(c)paraboloidaldish,and(d)powertower

Source: WikimediaCommons,photographbykjkolb;WikimediaCommons,originaluploaderwasLkruijswaten.wikipedia; AustralianNationalUniversity2009a;CSIRO

a

c

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d



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receiver,whichincreasestheefficiencyofenergyconversion.Theparaboloidaldishhasthegreatestpotentialtobeusedinmodularform,whichmaygivethisdesignanadvantageinoff-gridandremoteapplications.However,tofocusthesunlightontoasinglepoint,paraboloidaldishesneedtotrackthedirectionofsunlightontwoaxes.Thisrequiresamorecomplextrackingmechanism,andismoreexpensivetobuild.Theotherpointfocusingdesignisthe‘powertower’,whichusesaseriesofground-basedmirrorstofocusontoanelevatedcentralreceiver.Powertowermirrorsalsorequiretwo-axistrackingmechanisms;howevertheuseofsmaller,flatmirrorscanreducecosts.

Theparabolictroughhasthemostwidespreadcommercialuse.Anarrayofnineparabolictroughplantsproducingacombined354MWhaveoperatedinCaliforniasincethe1980s.SeveralnewoneshavebeenbuiltinSpainandNevadainthelastfewyearsatarounda50–60MWscale,andtherearemanyparabolictroughplantseitherintheconstructionorplanningphase.Whileparabolictroughshavethemajorityofthecurrentmarketshare,allfourdesignsaregainingrenewedcommercialinterest.Thereisan11MWsolarpowertowerplantoperatinginSpain, andasimilar20MWplanthasrecentlybegunoperatingatthesamelocation.ThelinearFresnelreflectorhasbeendemonstratedonasmallscale(5MW),anda177MWplantisplannedforconstructioninCalifornia.Theparaboloidaldishhasalsobeendemonstratedonasmallscale,andthereareplansforlargescaledishplants.

Methodsofpowerconversionandthermalstoragevaryfromtypetotype.Whilesolarthermalplantsaregenerallysuitedtolargescaleplants(greaterthan 50MW),theparaboloidaldishhasthepotentialto beusedinmodularform.Thismaygivedishsystemsanadvantageinremoteandoff-gridapplications.

Efficiency of solar thermalTheconversionefficiencyofsolarthermalpowerplantsdependsonthetypeofconcentratorused, andtheamountofsunlight.Ingeneral,thepoint-focusingconcentrators(paraboloidaldishandpowertower)canachievehigherefficienciesthanlinefocussingtechnologies(parabolictroughandFresnelreflector).Thisispossiblebecausethepoint-focussingtechnologiesachievehighertemperaturesforhigherthermodynamiclimits.

Thehighestvalueofsolar-to-electricefficiencyeverrecordedforasolarthermalsystemwas31.25percent,usingasolardishinpeaksunlightconditions(Sandia2009).Parabolictroughscanachieveapeaksolar-to-electricefficiencyofover20percent(SEGS2009).However,theconversionefficiencydropssignificantlywhentheradiationdropsinintensity,

sotheannualaverageefficienciesaresignificantlylower.AccordingtoBegay-Campbell(2008),theannualsolar-to-electricefficiencyisapproximately12–14percentforparabolictroughs,12percentforpowertowers(althoughemergingtechnologiescanachieve18–20percent),and22–25percentforparaboloidaldishes.LinearFresnelreflectorsachieveasimilarefficiencytoparabolictroughs,withanannualsolar-to-electricefficiencyofapproximately 12percent(Millsetal.2002).

Energy storageSolarthermalelectricitysystemshavethepotentialtostoreenergyoverseveralhours.Theworkingfluidusedinthesystemcanbeusedtotemporarilystoreheat,andcanbeconvertedintoelectricityafterthesunhasstoppedshining.Thismeansthatsolarthermalplantshavethepotentialtodispatchpoweratpeakdemandtimes.Itshouldbenoted,however,thatperiodsofsustainedcloudyweathercuttheproductivecapacityofsolarthermalpower. Theseasonalityofsunshinealsoreducespoweroutputinwinter.

Thermalstorageisoneofthekeyadvantagesofsolarthermalpower,andcreatesthepotentialforintermediateorbase-loadpowergeneration.Althoughthermalstoragetechnologyisrelativelynew,severalrecentlyconstructedsolarthermalpowerplantshaveincludedthermalstorageofapproximately7hours’powergeneration.Inaddition,therearenewpowertowerdesignsthatincorporateupto16hoursofthermalstorage,allowing24hourpowergenerationinappropriateconditions.Thedevelopmentofcosteffectivestoragetechnologiesmayenableamuchhigheruptakeofsolarthermalpowerinthefuture(WyldGroupandMMA2008).

Currentresearchisdevelopingalternativeenergystoragemethods,includingchemicalstorage,andphase-changematerials.Chemicalstorageoptionsincludedissociatedammoniaandsolar-enhancednaturalgas.Thesenewstoragemethodshavethepotentialtoprovideseasonalstorageofsolarenergy,ortoconvertsolarenergyintoportablefuels.Infuture,itmaybepossibleforsolarfuelstobeusedinthetransportsector,orevenforexportingsolarenergy.

Hybrid operation with fossil fuel plantsSolarthermalpowerplantscanmakeuseof existingturbinetechnologiesthathavebeendevelopedandrefinedovermanydecadesinfossilfueltechnologies.Usingthismaturetechnologycanreducemanufacturingcostsandincreasetheefficiencyofpowergeneration.Inaddition,solarthermalheatcollectorscanbeusedinhybridoperationwithfossilfuelburners.Anumberofexistingsolarthermalpowerplantsusegasburnerstoboostpowersupplyduringlowlevelsofsunlight.


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Combiningsolarthermalpowerwithgascanprovideahedgeagainsttheintermittencyofsunlight.

Solarthermalheatcollectorscanbeattachedtoexistingcoalorgaspowerstationstopre-heatthewaterusedintheseplants.Thisispossiblesincesolarthermalheatcollectorsperformaverysimilarfunctiontofossilfuelburners.Inthisway,solarthermalpowercanmakeuseofexistinginfrastructure.Thisoptionisnotaffectedbyintermittencyofsunlight,sincethefossilfuelburnersprovidefirmcapacityofproduction.Internationally,thereareseveralnewintegratedsolarcombinedcycle(ISCC)plantsplannedforconstruction.ISCCplantsaresimilartocombinedcyclegasplants(usingbothagasturbine,andasteamturbine),butusesolarthermalheatcollectorstoboostthesteamturbineproduction.

Solar updraft towersAnalternativesolarthermalpowertechnologyisthesolarupdrafttower,alsoknownasasolarchimney.Theupdrafttowercapturessolarenergyusingalargegreenhouse,whichheatsairbeneathatransparentroof.Averytallchimneyisplacedatthecentreofthegreenhouse,andtheheatedaircreatespressuredifferencesthatdriveairflowupthechimney.Electricityisgeneratedfromtheairflowusingwindturbinesatthebaseofthechimney.

Solarupdrafttowershavebeentestedatarelativelysmallscale,witha50kWplantinSpainbeingtheonlyworkingprototypeatpresent.Thereareplanstoupscalethistechnology,includingaproposed200MWplantinBuronga,NSW.ThemaindisadvantageofsolarupdrafttowersisthattheydeliversignificantlylesspowerperunitareathanconcentratingsolarthermalandPVsystems(Enviromission2009).

Photovoltaic systemsThecostsofproducingPVcellshasdeclinedrapidlyinrecentyearsasuptakehasincreased(Fthenakis

etal.2009)andanumberofPVtechnologieshave

beendeveloped.Thecostofmodulescanbereduced

infourmainways:

• makingthinnerlayers–reducingmaterialand

processingcosts;

• integratingPVpanelswithbuildingelementssuch

asglassandroofs–reducingoverallsystem

costs;

• makingadhesiveonsite–reducingmaterials

costs;and

• improvingdecisionsaboutmakingorbuying

inputs,increasingeconomiesofscale,and

improvingthedesignofPVmodules.

TherearethreemaintypesofPVtechnology:

crystallinesilicon,thin-filmandconcentratingPV.

Crystallinesiliconistheoldestandmostwidespread

technology.Thesecellsarebecomingmoreefficient

overtime,andcostshavefallensteadily.

Thin-filmPVisanemerginggroupoftechnologies,

targetedatreducingcostsofPVcells.Thin-filmPV

isatanearlierstageofdevelopment,andcurrently

deliversalowerefficiencythancrystallinesilicon,

estimatedataround10percent,althoughmany

ofthenewervarietiesstilldeliverefficienciesof

lessthanthis(Prowse2009).However,thisis

compensatedbylowercosts,andtherearestrong

prospectsforefficiencyimprovementsinthefuture.

Thin-filmPVcanbeinstalledonmanydifferent

substrates,givingitgreatflexibilityinitsapplications.

ConcentratingPVsystemsuseeithermirrorsor

lensestofocusalargeareaofsunlightontoacentral

receiver(figure10.25).Thisincreasestheintensity

ofthelight,andallowsagreaterpercentageofits

energytobeconvertedintoelectricity.Thesesystems

aredesignedprimarilyforlargescalecentralised

Figure 10.25 (a)ExampleofarooftopPVsystem. (b)AschematicconcentratingPVsystem,wherealargenumberofmirrorsfocussunlightontocentralPVreceivers

Source: CERP,WikimediaCommons;EnergyInnovationsInc.underWikipedialicencecc-by-sa-2.5



281

power,duetothecomplexitiesofthereceivers.ConcentratingPVisthemostefficientformofPV,deliveringatypicalsystemefficiencyofaround 20percent,andhasachievedefficienciesofjustover40percentinideallaboratoryconditions(NREL2008).

AnadvantageofusingconcentratingPVisthatitreducestheareaofsolarcellsneededtocapture thesunlight.PVcellsareoftenexpensivetoproduce,andthemirrorsorlensesusedtoconcentratethelightaregenerallycheaperthanthecells.However,theuseofsolarconcentratorsgenerallyrequiresalargersystemthatcannotbescaleddownaseasilyasflat-platePVcells.

ArelativelyrecentareaofgrowthforPVapplicationsisinBuilding-integratedPV(BIPV)systems.BIPVsystemsincorporatePVtechnologyintomanydifferentcomponentsofanewbuilding.Thesecomponentsincluderooftops,wallsandwindows,

Solar thermal heatingSolarthermalheatingusesdirectheatfromsunlight,withouttheneedtoconverttheenergyintoelectricity.Thesimplestformofsolarthermalheatingisachievedsimplybypumpingwaterthroughasystemoflight-absorbingtubes,usuallymountedonarooftop.Thetubesabsorbsunlight,andheatthewaterflowingwithinthem.Themostcommonuseforsolarthermalheatingishotwatersystems,buttheyarealsousedforswimmingpoolheatingorspaceheating.

Therearetwomaintypesofsolarwaterheaters:flat-plateandevacuatedtubesystems(figure10.26).Flat-platesystemsarethemostwidespreadandmaturetechnology.Theyuseanarrayofverysmalltubes,coveredbyatransparentglazingforinsulation.Evacuatedtubesconsistofasunlightabsorbingmetaltube,insidetwoconcentrictransparentglasstubes.Thespacebetweenthetwoglasstubesis

BOx 10.2SOLARENERGyTECHNOLOGIESFORDIRECT-USEAPPLICATIONS

evacuatedtopreventlossesduetoconvection.Evacuatedtubeshavelowerheatlossesthanflatplatecollectors,givingthemanadvantageinwinterconditions.However,flat-platesystemsaregenerallycheaper,duetotheirrelativecommercialmaturity.

Solarthermalheatingisamaturetechnologyandrelativelyinexpensivecomparedtoothersolartechnologies.Thiscostadvantagehasmeantthatsolarthermalheatinghasthelargestenergyproductionofanysolartechnology.Insomecountrieswithfavourablesunlightconditions,solarwaterheatershavegainedasubstantialmarketshareofwaterheaters.Forexample,theproportionofhouseholdswithsolarwaterheatersintheNorthernTerritorywas54percentin2008(CEC2009)whereasinIsraelthisproportionisapproximately 90percent(CSIRO2010).

wherePVcellscaneitherreplace,orbeintegratedwithexistingmaterials.BIPVhasthepotentialtoreducecostsofPVsystems,andtoincreasethesurfaceareaavailableforcapturingsolarenergywithinabuilding(NREL2009b).

Efficiency of photovoltaic systemsCurrently,themaximumefficiencyofcommerciallyavailablePVmodulesisaround20to25percent,withefficienciesofaround40percentachievedinlaboratories.MostcommerciallyavailablePVsystemshaveanaverageconversionefficiencyofaround10percent.Newdevelopments(suchasmulti-junctiontandemcells)suggestsolarcellswithconversionefficienciesofgreaterthan40percentcouldbecomecommerciallyavailableinthefuture.Fthenakisetal.(2009)positthatincreasesinefficiencyofPVmoduleswillcomefromfurthertechnologyimprovements.

Figure 10.26 (a)Flat-platesolarwaterheater. (b)EvacuatedtubesolarwaterheaterSource: WesternAustralianSustainableEnergyDevelopmentOffice2009;HillsSolar(SolarSolutionsforLife)2009


282

Solar air conditioningSolarthermalenergycanalsobeusedtodriveair-conditioningsystems.Sorptioncoolingusesaheatsourcetodrivearefrigerationcycle,andcanbeintegratedwithsolarthermalheatcollectorstoprovidesolarair-conditioning.Sincesunlightisgenerallystrongwhenair-conditioningismostneeded,solarair-conditioningcanbeusedtobalancepeaksummerelectricityloads.However,anumberofdevelopmentsarerequiredbeforesolarair-conditioningbecomescostcompetitiveinAustralia(CSIRO2010).

Passive solar heatingSolarenergycanalsobeusedtoheatbuildingsdirectly,throughdesigningbuildingsthatcapturesunlightandstoreheatthatcanbeusedatnight.Thisprocessiscalledpassivesolarheating,andcansaveenergy(electricityandgas)thatwouldotherwisebeneededtoheatbuildingsduringcoldweather.Newbuildingscanbeconstructedwithpassivesolarheatingfeaturesatminimalextracost,providingareliablesourceofheatingthatcangreatlyreduceenergydemandsinwinter(AZSC2009).

Passivesolarheatingusuallyrequirestwo

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

PJ

0

0.30

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

%

Share of total (%)

Solar energy consumption (PJ)

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2029-30

AERA 10.2Year

%

AERA 10.3

0

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.2

01999-

002000-

012001-

022002-

032003-

042004-

052005-

062006-

072007-

082029-

30

TWh

Share of total (%)


Year

Figure 10.27 Projectedprimaryenergyconsumption ofsolarenergy


Figure 10.28 Projectedelectricitygenerationfrom solar energy


basicelements:anorth-facing(intheSouthernHemisphere)windowoftransparentmaterialthatallowssunlighttoenterthebuilding;andathermalstoragematerialthatabsorbsandstoresheat.Passivesolarheatingmustalsobeintegratedwithinsulationtoprovideefficientstorageofheat,androofdesignsthatcanmaximiseexposureinwinter,andminimiseexposureinsummer.Althoughsomeofthesefeaturescanberetrofittedtoexistingbuildings,thebestprospectsforpassivesolarheatingareinthedesignofnewbuildings.

Combined heat and power systemsAtechnologyunderdevelopmentinAustraliaandoverseasisthecombinedheatandpowersystem,combiningsolarthermalheatingwithPVtechnology(ANU2009).Typicallythisconsistsofasmall-scaleconcentratingparabolictroughsystemwithacentralPVreceiver,wherethereceiveriscoupledtoacoolingfluid.WhilethePVproduceselectricity,heatisextractedfromthecoolingfluidandcanbeusedinthesamewayasaconventionalsolarthermalheater.Thesesystemscanachieveagreaterefficiencyofenergyconversion,byusingthesamesunlightfortwopurposes.Thesesystemsarebeingtargetedforsmall-scalerooftopapplications.

programsandtheproposedemissionsreductiontargetareallexpectedtounderpinthegrowthofsolarenergyovertheoutlookperiod.

Proposed development projectsAsatOctober2009,therewerenosolarprojectsnearingcompletioninAustralia(table10.5).Therearecurrentlyfiveproposedsolarprojects,withacombinedcapacityof116MW.ThelargestoftheseprojectsisWizardPower’s$355millionWhyallaSolarOasis,whichwillbelocatedinSouthAustralia.Theprojectisexpectedtohaveacapacityof80MWandisscheduledtobecompletedby2012.

Electricitygenerationfromsolarenergyisprojectedtoincreasestrongly,fromonly0.1TWhin2007–08to4TWhin2029–30,representinganaverageannualgrowthrateof17.4percent(figure10.28).Theshareofsolarenergyinelectricitygenerationisalsoprojectedtoincrease,from0.04percentin2007–08to1percentin2029–30.

Whilehighinvestmentcostscurrentlyrepresentabarriertomorewidespreaduseofsolarenergy,thereisconsiderablescopeforthecostofsolartechnologiestodeclinesignificantlyovertime.Thecompetitivenessofsolarenergywillalsodependongovernmentpolicies.TheRET,theresultsofRD&D



283

Table 10.5 Proposedsolarenergyprojects

Project Company Location Status Start up Capacity Capital expenditure

SolarGasOne CSIROandQldGovernment

Qld Governmentgrantreceived

2012 1MW na

LakeCargelligosolarthermalproject

LloydEnergySystems

LakeCargelligo,NSW

Governmentgrantreceived

na 3MW na

Cloncurrysolarthermalpowerstation

LloydEnergySystems

Cloncurry,Qld Governmentgrantreceived

2010 10MW $31m

ACTsolarpowerplant

ACTGovernment Tobedetermined,ACT

Pre-feasibilitystudycompleted

2012 22MW $141m

WhyallaSolarOasis

WizardPower Whyalla,SA Feasibilitystudyunderway

2012 80MW $355m

Source: ABARE2009c;LloydEnergySystems2007

Table 10.4 OutlookforAustralia’ssolarmarketto2029–30

unit 2007–08 2029–30

Primary energy consumption PJ 7 24


Averageannualgrowth,2007–08to20029–30 % 5.9

Electricity generation

Electricityoutput TWh 0.1 4


Averageannualgrowth,2007–08to2029–30 % 17.4

a Energyproductionandprimaryenergyconsumptionareidentical Source: ABARE2009a,2010

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