change and renewal recession & recovery in birmingham & solihull the churches’ industrial...
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Change and RenewalRecession & Recovery in Birmingham & Solihull
The Churches’ Industrial Group Birmingham
Glynn JonesThursday 10th June 2010
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Presentation
1. Economic context
2. The Birmingham and Solihull economy
3. Economic futures
4. Key challenges
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Source: ONS, UK Output, Income & Expenditure, February 2010Notes: Q4 2009 GDP was revised up from +0.1% up to 0.4%; Q1 2010 up from 0.2% to 0.3%Estimates of the recession have been revised downwards from 6% to 6.3%.
The nation has experienced a very deep recession, especially affecting construction and manufacturing….
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Which the West Midlands has been especially vulnerable to
Source: PMI West Midlands, Markit Economics / AWM, May 2010 ONS Labour Market Statistics, May 2010
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However, it is clear that the regional economy has been performing poorly over a much longer period......
Note: GDP and GVA data are NOT directly comparable GDP = GVA + taxes on products - subsidies on productsSource: Office of National Statistics
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With the West Midlands experiencing the lowest average annual growth in GVA per head (2000-07) of any UK region
2. The Birmingham & Solihull Economy
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Birmingham and Solihull make up a quarter of the regional economy
Notes: Birmingham comprises 21% & Solihull 5% of regional GVA
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But recent growth has been driven by the public sector, whilst employment in the private sector has shrunk.....
Source: Work Foundation Analysis 2009
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And the performance of (high-value) financial & business services has been especially poor
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Hence overall growth in GVA per head in Birmingham has been lower than that for most other English core cities….
Source: Work Foundation Analysis, ONS 2009
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And after very strong recent growth there are emerging signs that Solihull’s growth is now ‘plateauxing’
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Birmingham especially has very high rates of worklessness, in part reflecting its demography.....
Source: NOMIS, Annual Population Survey, May 2010
In this graph, ‘Unemployed’ are working age people who are without a job, but who are actively seeking and able to start work. ‘Economically inactive’ are working age people who are neither in employment nor unemployed
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With very high worklessness rates for specific ethnic groups
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2009
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Birmingham home to four of the top five highest claimant proportions in England
Top four claimant proportions in England: Ladywood, Hodge Hill, Sparkbrook & Small Heath, Erdington
North Solihull has 4 SOAs in the top 1% most deprived nationally
3. Economic Futures
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Whilst conditions are improving, forward projections suggest the recovery will be slow (and fragile)
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Initial recovery may be ‘jobless’ with implications for those groups most impacted by recession.....
Source: Labour Force Survey, 2009
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There are longer term issues for the low skilled given the continuous ‘shift’ to a knowledge-based economy
Source: Labour Force Survey, 2008
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Also Birmingham has a very ‘young’ population – creating significant demands for new jobs
Source: NOMIS mid-year population estimates 2009
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However, Birmingham is now vulnerable to public sector cuts, affecting many ‘under-represented’ groups
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This is reflected in the changes in redundancy notifications
Source: Jobcentre Plus, Notified Redundancies, February 2010Note: ‘Other’ includes Agriculture & Fishing and Energy & Water
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Looking forward, whilst Solihull is forecast to see job growth this is largely offset by decline in Birmingham
Source: Economic projections from SQW, The Economic Demand for Housing the West Midlands, 2000-2026
4. Key Challenges
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4 key challenges facing Birmingham & Solihull
1. Achieving a rebalanced economy ?
2. Creating sufficient jobs for :
• those without qualifications
• younger people
• a rapidly growing workforce
3. Maintaining the momentum on regeneration & sustainable communities
4. Assisting communities and individuals to adapt